矽谷傳奇 Naval Ravikant《如何致富》播客完整字幕 (中英對照)

Podcast

Naval Ravikant 的《如何致富》(How to Get Rich) 播客與其後的集結成冊的《納瓦爾寶典》(The Almanack of Naval Ravikant)，並非傳統意義上的「快速致富」指南。它更像一部深植於第一性原理的哲學手冊，旨在引導聽眾和讀者建立一種能夠持續創造財富的「心態」與「系統」。
其核心思想圍繞著幾個關鍵概念：
特定知識 (Specific Knowledge): 指那些無法透過正規教育輕易學到，而是源於你個人天賦、熱情與實踐的獨特知識。這是你無法被輕易取代的競爭壁壘。
槓桿 (Leverage): Naval 將槓桿分為勞力、資本、以及最新且最強大的「程式碼與媒體」。後者無需他人許可，能以近乎零的邊際成本為你的努力帶來指數級的回報。
責任感 (Accountability): 勇於以自己的名義承擔風險與失敗。這會讓你建立個人品牌，並在成功時獲得最大的回報。
長線思維 (Long-Term Game): 財富是與玩長線賽局的人一起玩長線賽局的結果。所有巨大的回報，無論是財富、人際關係還是知識，都來自於複利。
這份內容的價值在於，它將抽象的哲學概念轉化為可執行的原則。它教你如何「將自己產品化」(Productize Yourself)，找到自己的獨特之處，並利用槓桿將其放大，最終在市場上找到屬於你的位置。這不僅適用於創業者，也適用於任何希望在職業生涯中掌握主動權、提升個人價值的工作者。
收聽完整英文播客： How to Get Rich - Naval Ravikant
完整字幕 (中英對照)

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Hey this is Nivi, you're listening to the Nival podcast.
嘿，我是 Nivi，你正在收聽 Nival 播客。

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This is one giant megisode that collects every episode we've done on getting rich.
這是一集超長的合輯，收集了我們所有關於致富的單集。

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All of it based on his tweet storm of how to get rich without getting lucky.
所有內容都基於他關於「如何在不靠運氣的情況下致富」的推文風暴。

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I've collected them all here because we're going to switch topics to the new topic of
我把所有內容都收集在這裡，因為我們要轉換主題，

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happiness on the next episode.
下一集將會是關於「快樂」的新主題。

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We've published one of these giant megasodes before but this one's even bigger.
我們之前發布過一集這樣的超長合輯，但這一集更大。

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It's about three and a half hours long.
它大約三個半小時長。

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It covers all the tweets from the how to get rich tweet storm plus all the Q&A that we
它涵蓋了「如何致富」推文風暴中的所有推文，以及我們

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did after that plus ten minutes of bonus material at the very end that we've never released.
之後所有的問答，最後還有十分鐘從未發布過的額外內容。

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The overall sound quality of this megisode improves a lot after the first hour.
這集超長合輯的整體音質在第一個小時後會好很多。

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You can find a link to a clean transcript in the show notes or if you go to the website
你可以在節目說明中找到乾淨逐字稿的連結，或者如果你去網站

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nav.al.
nav.al。

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There's no dot com at the end.
最後沒有 .com。

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I hope you enjoy.
希望你喜歡。

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You probably know Nival from his Twitter account and we're going to be talking about his epic
你可能從 Nival 的推特帳號認識他，我們將要討論他史詩級的

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tweet storm on how to get rich without getting lucky.
關於「如何在不靠運氣的情況下致富」的推文風暴。

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We're going to go through most of the tweets in detail, give Nival a chance to expand on
我們將詳細探討大部分的推文，讓 Nival 有機會擴展

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them and just generally riff on the topic.
並對這個主題進行即興發揮。

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He'll probably throw in some ideas that he hasn't even published before.
他可能會拋出一些他從未發表過的觀點。

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He's also the co-founder of AngelList and E-Pinions.
他也是 AngelList 和 E-Pinions 的共同創辦人。

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He's a prolific tech investor in companies like Twitter, Uber and many more.
他是多產的科技投資人，投資了像 Twitter、Uber 等許多公司。

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I'm the co-founder of AngelList with Nival and I also co-authored the Venture Hacks blog
我是 AngelList 的共同創辦人，與 Nival 共同創立，我也曾與他共同撰寫 Venture Hacks 部落格

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with him back in the day.
在早期的時候。

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Yeah, the how to get rich tweet storm definitely hit a nerve.
是的，「如何致富」的推文風暴確實觸動了人們的神經。

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A lot of people say it was helpful to reach across aisles and people outside of the tech
很多人說它有助於跨越界線，觸及科技業以外的人，

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industry, people in all walks of life, people do want to know how to solve their money problems.
各行各業的人，人們確實想知道如何解決他們的金錢問題。

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Everyone vaguely knows that they want to be wealthy but they don't have a good set of
每個人都模糊地知道他們想變得富有，但他們沒有一套好的

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principles to do it by.
原則來實現它。

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What's the difference between wealth, money and status?
財富、金錢和地位之間有什麼區別？

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Wealth is the thing that you really want.
財富是你真正想要的東西。

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Wealth is assets that earn while you sleep.
財富是你在睡覺時也能賺錢的資產。

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Wealth is the factory, the robots that's cranking out things.
財富是工廠，是那些不斷生產東西的機器人。

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Wealth is the computer program that's running at night that's serving other customers.
財富是那個在夜間運行，服務其他客戶的電腦程式。

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Wealth is even money in the bank that is being reinvested into other assets and into other
財富甚至是銀行裡的錢，被再投資於其他資產和其他

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businesses.
企業。

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Even a house can be a form of wealth because you can rent it out, although that's probably
即使是房子也可以是一種財富，因為你可以把它租出去，雖然那可能

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a lower use of productivity in the land than actually doing some commercial enterprise.
是對土地生產力的較低利用，相較於實際從事商業活動。

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My definition of wealth is much more businesses and assets that can earn while you sleep.
我對財富的定義更傾向於那些能在你睡覺時賺錢的企業和資產。

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But really the reason you want wealth is because it buys you freedom.
但你真正想要財富的原因是它能買到自由。

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You don't have to wear a tie like a collar around your neck.
你不用像戴項圈一樣繫著領帶。

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You don't have to wake up at 7 a.m. and rush to work and sit and commute traffic.
你不用早上七點起床，趕著去上班，坐在通勤的車流中。

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You don't have to waste away your entire life grinding all the productive hours into a way
你不用把一生中所有有生產力的時間都耗費在一個

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into a soulless job that doesn't fulfill you.
沒有靈魂、無法讓你滿足的工作上。

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The purpose of wealth is freedom.
財富的目的是自由。

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There's nothing more than that.
僅此而已。

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It's not to buy fur coats or drive Ferraris or sail yachts or jet around the world near
不是為了買皮草、開法拉利、駕遊艇，或搭著灣流飛機

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Gulf Stream.
環遊世界。

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That stuff gets really boring and really stupid really fast.
那些東西很快就會變得非常無聊和愚蠢。

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It's really just so that you are your own sovereign individual.
它真的只是為了讓你成為一個獨立自主的個體。

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You're not going to get that unless you really want it.
除非你真的想要，否則你得不到它。

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And the entire world wants it.
而全世界都想要它。

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And the entire world is working hard at it.
而全世界都在為此努力。

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And to some extent it is competitive.
在某種程度上，它是有競爭性的。

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It's a positive sum game, but there are competitive elements to it because there's a finite amount
這是一個正和遊戲，但其中有競爭的元素，因為目前社會上的資源

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of resources right now in society.
是有限的。

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And to get the resources to do what you want, you have to stand out.
而要獲得你想要的資源去做你想做的事，你就必須脫穎而出。

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Money is how we transfer wealth.
金錢是我們轉移財富的方式。

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Money is social credits.
金錢是社會信用。

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It is the ability to have credits and debits on other people's time.
它是一種能夠對他人的時間進行借貸的能力。

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If I do my job right, if I create value for society, society says, oh, thank you.
如果我把我的工作做好，如果我為社會創造價值，社會會說：「哦，謝謝你。」

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We owe you something in the future for the work that you did in the past.
「我們因為你過去所做的工作，未來欠你一些東西。」

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Here's a little IOU.
這是一張小小的借據。

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Let's call that money.
我們稱之為金錢。

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And that money gets debased because people steal the IOUs.
而金錢會貶值，因為有人偷竊這些借據。

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The government prints extra IOUs.
政府印製額外的借據。

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People renege on their IOUs.
人們違背他們的借據。

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But really what money is trying to be is trying to be a reliable IOU from society that you
但金錢真正想成為的是一種來自社會的可靠借據，

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are owed something for something you or someone who gave you the money did in the past.
代表你因為你或給予你金錢的人在過去所做的事情而應得的回報。

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And we can transfer these IOUs around.
而我們可以轉移這些借據。

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So really money is how we transfer wealth.
所以，金錢確實是我們轉移財富的方式。

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There are fundamentally two huge games in life that people play.
人生中基本上有兩種人們在玩的巨大遊戲。

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One is the money game because money is not going to solve all your problems, but it's
一種是金錢遊戲，因為金錢不能解決你所有的問題，但

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going to solve all your money problems.
它能解決你所有的金錢問題。

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So I think that people know that.
所以我想人們都知道這一點。

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They realize that they want to make money.
他們意識到自己想賺錢。

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But at the same time, many of them deep down believe that they can't make it.
但同時，他們許多人內心深處相信自己做不到。

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They don't want any wealth creation to happen.
他們不希望任何財富被創造出來。

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So they virtue signal by attacking the whole enterprise by saying, well, making money is
所以他們透過攻擊整個事業來表現自己的高尚，說：「嗯，賺錢是

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evil and you shouldn't do it, blah, blah, blah.
邪惡的，你不應該這麼做，等等等等。」

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But what they're trying to do is they're actually playing the other game, which is a status
但他們真正想做的是玩另一種遊戲，那就是地位

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game.
遊戲。

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They're trying to be high status in the eyes of other people watching by saying, well, I
他們試圖在旁觀者眼中獲得高地位，說：「嗯，我

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don't need money.
不需要錢。

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We don't want money.
我們不想要錢。」

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And then status is just your ranking in the social hierarchy.
而地位就只是你在社會階層中的排名。

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So wealth is not a zero sum game.
所以財富不是零和遊戲。

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Everybody in the world can have a house because you have a house doesn't take away from my
世界上的每個人都可以有房子，因為你有一棟房子並不會剝奪我

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ability to have a house.
擁有房子的能力。

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If anything, the more houses that are built, the easier it becomes to build houses, the
如果說有什麼影響的話，那就是越多的房子被建造，建造房子就越容易，我們對

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more we know about building houses and just the more people that can have houses.
建造房子的了解就越多，也就有更多的人可以擁有房子。

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So wealth is a very positive sum game.
所以財富是一個非常正和的遊戲。

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We create things together.
我們一起創造事物。

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We're starting this endeavor to create this hopefully piece of art that explains what
我們開始這個努力，希望能創作出解釋我們所做之事的一件藝術品。

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we're doing.
我們正在做的。

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At the end of it, something brand new will be created.
在結束時，將會創造出全新的東西。

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It's a positive sum game.
這是一個正和遊戲。

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Status on the other hand is a zero sum game.
另一方面，地位則是零和遊戲。

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It's a very old game.
這是一個非常古老的遊戲。

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We've been playing it since monkey tribes and it's hierarchical.
我們從猴子部落時代就在玩這個遊戲，它是階級性的。

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Who's number one, who's number two, who's number three.
誰是第一名，誰是第二名，誰是第三名。

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And for number three to move to number two, number two has to move out of that slot.
而要讓第三名升到第二名，第二名就必須離開那個位置。

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So status is zero sum game.
所以地位是零和遊戲。

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Holotix is an example of a status game.
政治就是地位遊戲的一個例子。

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Even sports is an example of a status game.
即使是運動也是地位遊戲的一個例子。

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To be the winner, there must be a loser.
要有贏家，就必須有輸家。

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I don't fundamentally love status games.
我基本上不喜歡地位遊戲。

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They play an important role in our society.
它們在我們的社會中扮演著重要的角色。

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So we figure out who's in charge.
所以我們弄清楚誰是主事者。

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But fundamentally you play them because they're a necessary evil.
但基本上你玩它們是因為它們是必要之惡。

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The problem is on an evolutionary basis, like if you go back thousands of years, status
問題在於，從演化的角度來看，如果你回到幾千年前，地位

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is a much better predictor of survival than wealth is.
是比財富更好的生存預測指標。

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You couldn't have wealth before the farming age, before farmers, because you couldn't
在農業時代之前，在農夫出現之前，你無法擁有財富，因為你無法

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store things.
儲存東西。

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Hunter gatherers carried everything on their backs.
狩獵採集者把所有東西都背在背上。

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So hunter gatherers lived entirely in status-based societies.
所以狩獵採集者完全生活在以地位為基礎的社會中。

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Farmers started going to wealth-based societies and the modern industrial economies are much
農夫開始走向以財富為基礎的社會，而現代工業經濟體則更

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more heavily wealth-based societies.
是重度以財富為基礎的社會。

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But there's always a subtle competition going on between status and wealth.
但地位和財富之間總是存在著微妙的競爭。

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For example, when journalists attack rich people or attack the technology industry,
例如，當記者攻擊富人或攻擊科技產業時，

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they're really bidding for status.
他們其實是在爭奪地位。

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They're saying, no, the people are more important and I, the journalist, represent the people
他們說，不，人民更重要，而我，身為記者，代表人民，

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and therefore I am more important.
因此我更重要。

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The problem is that by playing these status games, to win the status game, you have to
問題是，透過玩這些地位遊戲，為了贏得地位遊戲，你必須

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put somebody else down.
貶低別人。

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That's why you should avoid status games in your life, because they make you into an angry
這就是為什麼你應該在生活中避免地位遊戲，因為它們會讓你變成一個憤怒、

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combative person.
好鬥的人。

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You're always fighting to put other people down, to put yourself and the people that
你總是在奮鬥貶低別人，以抬高自己和你喜歡的人。

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you like up.
你喜歡。

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And they're always going to exist.
而且它們總是會存在。

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There's no way around it.
這是無法避免的。

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But just realize that most of the times when you're trying to create wealth, you're actually
但只要意識到，大多數時候當你試圖創造財富時，你其實

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getting attacked by someone else and they're trying to look like a goody two shoes.
會被別人攻擊，而他們試圖表現得像個乖寶寶。

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But really what they're doing is they're trying to up their own status at your expense.
但他們真正做的是試圖以你為代價來提升自己的地位。

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They're just playing a different game and it's a worse game.
他們只是在玩一個不同的遊戲，而且是一個更糟的遊戲。

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It's a zero-sum game instead of a positive-sum game.
這是一個零和遊戲，而不是一個正和遊戲。

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One thing you mentioned before the interview that stuck with me was the idea that you think
你在訪談前提到的一件事讓我印象深刻，就是你認為

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everyone can become rich and that perhaps some of the ways of getting rich or the idea
每個人都能致富，也許致富的某些方式或財富的概念

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of wealth is vilified by some people in other countries.
在其他國家被一些人妖魔化了。

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00:07:16,600 --> 00:07:18,600
You want to expand on that a little bit?
你想稍微擴展一下這個觀點嗎？

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Yeah, I think there's this notion that making money is evil, right?
是的，我認為有這樣一種觀念，認為賺錢是邪惡的，對吧？

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It's like rooted all the way back down to money is the root of all evil.
它就像根植於「金錢是萬惡之源」的觀念中。

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People think that the bankers steal our money.
人們認為銀行家偷了我們的錢。

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And it's somewhat true in that in a lot of the world, there's a lot of theft going on
這在某種程度上是真的，因為在世界上很多地方，一直都有很多盜竊行為

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all the time.
發生。

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The history of the world in some sense is this predator-prey relationship between makers
在某種意義上，世界的歷史就是創造者與

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and takers.
索取者之間的掠食者與獵物關係。

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There are people who go out and create things and build things and work hard on things and
有些人出去創造東西、建造東西、努力工作，

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then there are people who come along and take with a sword or a gun or taxes or crony capitalism
然後有些人會帶著劍、槍、稅收、裙帶資本主義

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or communism or what have you.
或共產主義或任何其他方式來奪取。

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There's all these different methods to steal.
有各種不同的偷竊方法。

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Even in nature, there are more parasites than there are non-parasitical organisms.
即使在自然界中，寄生生物也比非寄生生物多。

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You have a ton of parasites in you who are living off of you and the better ones are
你體內有大量的寄生蟲靠你為生，而較好的那些是

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symbiotic and giving something back, but there are a lot that are just taking.
共生的，會回饋一些東西，但有很多只是單純地索取。

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That's just the nature of how any complex system is built.
這就是任何複雜系統建構的本質。

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But what I am focused on is true wealth creation.
但我所關注的是真正的財富創造。

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It's not about taking money.
這不是關於拿錢。

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It's not about taking something from somebody else, but it's from creating abundance.
這不是關於從別人那裡拿走東西，而是關於創造豐盛。

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Obviously, there's not a finite number of jobs or a finite amount of wealth.
顯然，工作機會或財富的數量並非有限。

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Otherwise, we would still be sitting around in caves figuring out how to divide a piece
否則，我們現在還會圍坐在洞穴裡，想辦法分一塊

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of the firewood and the occasional dead deer.
柴火和偶爾捕獲的死鹿。

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So most of the wealth and civilization, in fact, not most, all of it has been created
所以大部分的財富和文明，事實上，不是大部分，是全部，都是被創造出來的。

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and it got created from somewhere.
而且它是從某個地方被創造出來的。

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It got created from people.
它是由人創造出來的。

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It got created from technology, got created from productivity, got created from hard work.
它是由科技創造的，由生產力創造的，由辛勤工作創造的。

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So this idea that it's stolen is, I think, this horrible zero-sum game that people who
所以，這種認為財富是偷來的想法，我認為，是那些

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are trying to gain status play.
試圖獲得地位的人玩的恐怖零和遊戲。

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But the reality is everyone can be rich and we can see that by seeing that in the first
但現實是每個人都可以變得富有，我們可以從第一世界中看到這一點：

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world everyone is richer than almost anyone who was alive 200 years ago.
每個人都比200年前幾乎任何活著的人都富有。

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200 years ago, nobody had antibiotics, nobody had cars, nobody had electricity, nobody
200年前，沒有人有抗生素，沒有人有汽車，沒有人有電力，沒有人

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had the iPhone.
有 iPhone。

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So all of these things are inventions that have made us wealthier as a species.
所以所有這些都是讓我們這個物種變得更富有的發明。

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Today I would rather be a poor person in a first world country than be a rich person
今天，我寧願在第一世界國家當一個窮人，也不願當一個富人

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in Louis XIV's France.
在路易十四時期的法國。

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I'd rather be a poor person today than an aristocrat back then.
我寧願當今天的窮人，也不願當當時的貴族。

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And that's just because of wealth creation.
而那僅僅是因為財富的創造。

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The engine of technology is science that is applied for the purpose of creating abundance.
科技的引擎是為了創造豐裕而應用的科學。

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So I think fundamentally everybody can be wealthy.
所以我認為基本上每個人都可以變得富有。

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And the thought experiment I want you to think through is imagine if everybody had the knowledge
我想讓你思考的思想實驗是，想像如果每個人都有

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of a good software engineer and a good hardware engineer.
一個優秀軟體工程師和一個優秀硬體工程師的知識。

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If you could go out there and you could build robots and computers and bridges and program
如果你能走出去，建造機器人、電腦、橋梁並為其編程，

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00:09:41,840 --> 00:09:42,840
them.
它們。

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Let's say every human knew how to do that.
假設每個人都知道怎麼做。

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What do you think society would look like in 20 years?
你認為 20 年後社會會是什麼樣子？

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My guess is what would happen is we would build robots, machines, software and hardware
我猜會發生的是，我們會建造機器人、機器、軟體和硬體

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to do everything and we would all be living in massive abundance.
來做所有事，我們都會生活在極度的富足中。

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We would essentially be retired in the sense that none of us would have to work for any
我們基本上可以退休了，因為我們都不需要為了任何

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of the basics.
基本生活所需而工作。

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We'd even have robotic nurses.
我們甚至會有機器人護士。

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We'd have like machine driven hospitals.
我們會有像機器驅動的醫院。

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00:10:05,120 --> 00:10:06,940
We'd have self driving cars.
我們會有自動駕駛汽車。

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We'd have farms that are 100% automated.
我們會有百分之百自動化的農場。

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We'd have clean energy.
我們會有乾淨的能源。

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So at that point we could use technology breakthroughs to get everything that we wanted.
到那時，我們就能利用科技突破來得到我們想要的一切。

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And if anyone is still working at that point, they're working as a form of expressing their
如果到那時還有人在工作，他們的工作就是一種表達

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00:10:20,120 --> 00:10:21,220
creativity.
創造力的方式。

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00:10:21,220 --> 00:10:25,320
They're working because it's in them to contribute and to build and design things.
他們工作是因為他們內在有貢獻、建造和設計事物的驅動力。

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But I don't think capitalism is evil.
但我不認為資本主義是邪惡的。

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Capitalism is actually good.
資本主義其實是好的。

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It's just that it gets hijacked.
只是它被劫持了。

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It gets hijacked by improper pricing of externalities.
它被外部性的不當定價所劫持。

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It gets hijacked by improper deals where you have corruption or you have monopolies.
它被不當的交易劫持，其中有腐敗或壟斷。

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Overall, capitalism is intrinsic to the human species.
總體而言，資本主義是人類物種的內在屬性。

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Capitalism is not something we invented.
資本主義不是我們發明的東西。

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Capitalism is not even something we discovered.
資本主義甚至不是我們發現的東西。

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It is innate to us in every exchange that we have.
它內在於我們的每一次交換中。

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When you and I exchange information, I want some information back from you.
當你我交換資訊時，我希望從你那裡得到一些回饋資訊。

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I give you information.
我給你資訊。

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00:10:56,780 --> 00:10:58,160
You give me information.
你給我資訊。

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If we weren't having a good information exchange, you go talk to somebody else.
如果我們的資訊交換不順利，你會去找別人談。

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So the notion of exchange and keeping track of credits and debits, this is built into
所以交換和記錄借貸的概念，是內建於

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us as flexible social animals.
我們這些靈活的社會動物之中的。

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We are the only animals in the animal kingdom that cooperate across genetic boundaries.
我們是動物王國中唯一跨越基因界線合作的動物。

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Most animals don't even cooperate.
大多數動物甚至不合作。

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But when they do, they cooperate only in packs where they co-evolve together.
但當牠們合作時，也只在牠們共同演化的群體中合作。

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They share blood, so they have some shared interests.
牠們有血緣關係，所以有一些共同利益。

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Humans don't have that.
人類沒有這個。

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What lets us cooperate is because we can keep track of debits and credits.
讓我們能夠合作的原因是，我們可以記錄借貸關係。

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Who put in how much work?
誰付出了多少努力？

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00:11:27,320 --> 00:11:28,880
Who contributed how much?
誰貢獻了多少？

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00:11:28,880 --> 00:11:31,320
That's all free market capitalism is.
這就是自由市場資本主義的全部。

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So I strongly believe that it is innate to the human species and we are going to create
所以我堅信，這是人類物種的內在屬性，我們將會創造

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more and more wealth and abundance for everybody.
越來越多的財富和豐裕給每一個人。

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Everybody can be wealthy.
每個人都可以變得富有。

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Everybody can be retired.
每個人都可以退休。

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00:11:43,640 --> 00:11:44,640
Everybody can be successful.
每個人都可以成功。

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It is merely a question of education and desire.
這僅僅是教育和慾望的問題。

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You have to want it.
你必須想要它。

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If you don't want it, that's fine.
如果你不想要，那也沒關係。

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Then you opt out of the game.
那你就退出遊戲。

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But don't try and put down the people who are playing the game because that's the game
但不要試圖貶低那些在玩遊戲的人，因為正是那個遊戲

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that keeps you in a comfortable warm bed at night.
讓你晚上能睡在舒適溫暖的床上。

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That's the game that keeps a roof over your head.
正是那個遊戲讓你有個遮風避雨的屋頂。

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That's a game that keeps your supermarket stock.
正是那個遊戲讓你的超市貨架滿滿。

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That's the game that keeps the iPhone buzzing in your pocket.
正是那個遊戲讓你口袋裡的 iPhone 持續震動。

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So it is a beautiful game that is worth playing ethically, rationally, morally, socially for
所以，這是一個美好的遊戲，值得為了人類，在倫理、理性、道德、社會層面上

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the human race and it's going to continue to make us all richer and richer until we have
去玩，而且它會繼續讓我們越來越富有，直到我們擁有

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massive wealth creation for anybody who wants it.
為任何想要的人創造巨大財富。

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And it's not just individuals secretly despising wealth, right?
而且不僅僅是個人私下鄙視財富，對吧？

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There's countries, groups, political parties that overtly despise wealth or at least seem
有些國家、團體、政黨公開鄙視財富，或至少看起來

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to.
如此。

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00:12:29,280 --> 00:12:30,280
That's right.
沒錯。

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And so what those countries, political parties and groups are reduced to is playing the zero-sum
所以那些國家、政黨和團體最終只能玩零和的

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game of status.
地位遊戲。

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And the process to destroy wealth creation, they drag everybody down to their level, which
在破壞財富創造的過程中，他們把每個人都拉低到他們的水平，這就是

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is why the US is a very popular country for immigrants because it's the American dream.
為什麼美國是移民非常受歡迎的國家，因為這就是美國夢。

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Anyone can come here, be poor and then work really hard and make money and get wealthy,
任何人都可以來到這裡，即使貧窮，然後努力工作，賺錢，變得富有，

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but even just make some basic money for their lives.
或者至少為生活賺取一些基本收入。

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Obviously, the definition of wealth is different for different people.
顯然，財富的定義對不同的人來說是不同的。

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A first world citizen's definition of wealth might be, oh, I have to make millions of dollars
第一世界公民對財富的定義可能是：「哦，我必須賺幾百萬美元

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and I'm completely done.
，然後我就完全搞定了。」

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Whereas to a third world poor immigrant just entering the country and we were poor immigrants
然而對於一個剛進入這個國家的第三世界貧困移民來說，而我們就是在我很小的時候來到美國的

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who came here when I was fairly young to the United States, wealth may just be a much lower
貧窮移民，財富可能只是一個低得多的

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number.
數字。

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00:13:07,800 --> 00:13:11,640
It's like, I don't have to work a manual labor job for the rest of my life that I don't want
就像是，我不需要餘生都做我不想做的體力勞動工作。

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to work.
不想工作。

256
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But groups that despise it will essentially bring the entire group down to that level.
但鄙視它的團體，基本上會將整個團體拉低到那個水平。

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If you get too many takers and not enough makers, society falls apart.
如果索取者太多而創造者不足，社會就會崩潰。

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You end up with a communist country, look with Venezuela, right?
你最終會得到一個共產主義國家，看看委內瑞拉，對吧？

259
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They were so busy taking and dividing and reallocating that people are literally starving
他們忙於索取、分配和重新分配，以至於人們真的在

260
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in the streets and losing kilograms of body weight every year just due to sheer starvation.
街頭挨餓，每年因純粹的飢餓而減輕數公斤體重。

261
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Another way to think about it is imagine an organism that has too many parasites.
另一種思考方式是，想像一個擁有太多寄生蟲的有機體。

262
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You actually need some small number of parasites to stay healthy and you need a lot of symbiotes,
你其實需要少量的寄生蟲來保持健康，而且你需要大量的共生體，

263
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like all the mitochondria in all of our cells that help us respirate and burn oxygen.
就像我們所有細胞中的所有粒線體，它們幫助我們呼吸和燃燒氧氣。

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These are symbiotes that help us survive.
這些是幫助我們生存的共生體。

265
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We can survive without them.
我們可以沒有它們而生存。

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But to me, those are partners in the wealth creation that creates the human body.
但對我來說，那些是創造人體的財富創造中的夥伴。

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But if you just were filled with parasites, if you got infected with worms or a virus
但如果你只是充滿了寄生蟲，如果你感染了蠕蟲或病毒

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or bacteria that were purely parasitical, you would die.
或純粹寄生的細菌，你會死的。

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So any organism can only withstand a small number of parasites.
所以任何生物體都只能承受少量的寄生蟲。

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And when the parasitic element gets too far out of control, you die.
當寄生元素失控到一定程度，你就會死亡。

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So again, I'm talking about ethical wealth creation.
所以再次強調，我談的是合乎道德的財富創造。

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I'm not talking about monopolies.
我不是在談論壟斷。

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I'm not talking about crony capitalism.
我不是在談論裙帶資本主義。

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I'm not talking about mispriced externalities like the environment.
我不是在談論像環境這樣被錯誤定價的外部性。

275
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I'm talking about free minds and free markets, small scale exchange between humans that's
我談的是自由的思想和自由的市場，人與人之間的小規模交換，那是

276
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voluntary and doesn't have an outsized impact on others.
自願的，並且不會對他人產生過大的影響。

277
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But I think that kind of wealth creation, if a society does not respect it, if a group
但我認為那種財富創造，如果一個社會不尊重它，如果一個群體

278
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does not respect it, that society will plunge into ruin and darkness.
不尊重它，那個社會將會陷入毀滅和黑暗。

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Obviously, we want to be wealthy and we want to get there in this lifetime without having
顯然，我們想要變得富有，我們希望在這一生中實現這一目標，而不需要

280
00:14:42,160 --> 00:14:43,160
to rely on luck.
依賴運氣。

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A lot of people think making money is about luck.
很多人認為賺錢是靠運氣。

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It's about becoming the kind of person that makes money.
這是關於成為那種能賺錢的人。

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I like to think that if I lost all my money and if you drop me on a random street in any
我喜歡這樣想，如果我失去了所有的錢，如果你把我丟在任何

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English-speaking country, within five, 10 years, I'd be wealthy again, right?
英語國家的隨機街道上，五年、十年內，我會再次變得富有，對吧？

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Because it's just a skill set that I've developed and I think anyone can develop.
因為這只是一套我已經發展出來的技能，而且我認為任何人都可以發展。

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In a thousand parallel universes, you want to be wealthy in 999 of them.
在一千個平行宇宙中，你希望在其中 999 個都變得富有。

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You don't want to be wealthy in the 50 of them where you got lucky.
你不想在其中 50 個靠運氣致富的宇宙中變得富有。

288
00:15:11,880 --> 00:15:13,680
So we want to factor luck out of it.
所以我們想把運氣這個因素排除掉。

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There's really four kinds of luck that we were talking about.
我們談論的運氣其實有四種。

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This came from a book, P. Marka.
這來自一本書，P. Marka。

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Mark Andresen wrote a blog post about it.
Mark Andreessen 寫了一篇關於它的部落格文章。

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But there's different kinds of luck.
但運氣有很多種。

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The first kind of luck you might just say is like blind luck where I just got lucky because
第一種運氣你或許可以說是盲目的運氣，我就是運氣好因為

294
00:15:27,560 --> 00:15:30,360
something completely out of my control happened.
發生了完全超出我控制的事情。

295
00:15:30,360 --> 00:15:32,480
That's fortune, that's fate, etc.
那是幸運，那是命運等等。

296
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Then there's luck that comes through persistence, hard work, hustle, motion, which is when you're
然後是來自堅持、努力、拼搏、行動的運氣，也就是當你

297
00:15:37,400 --> 00:15:41,320
just running around creating lots of opportunities, you're generating a lot of energy, you're
四處奔波創造許多機會，你產生了大量的能量，你

298
00:15:41,320 --> 00:15:43,000
doing a lot of things.
做了很多事情。

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Lots of things will just get stirred up in the dust.
很多事情就會在塵埃中被攪動起來。

300
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It's almost like mixing a Petri dish and seeing what combines or mixing a bunch of reagents
這幾乎就像混合一個培養皿，看看會產生什麼組合，或者混合一堆試劑

301
00:15:50,600 --> 00:15:52,040
and seeing what combines.
看看會產生什麼組合。

302
00:15:52,040 --> 00:15:56,640
You're just generating in a force and hustle and energy that luck will find you.
你只是在產生一種力量、拼勁和能量，運氣會找到你。

303
00:15:56,640 --> 00:16:01,580
A third way is that you just become very good at spotting luck.
第三種方式是你變得非常擅長發現運氣。

304
00:16:01,580 --> 00:16:06,720
So if you are very skilled in a field, you will notice when a lucky break happens in
所以，如果你在某個領域非常熟練，你會注意到當幸運的機會出現時，

305
00:16:06,720 --> 00:16:10,040
that field and other people who aren't attuned to it won't notice.
在那個領域，而其他不熟悉的人不會注意到。

306
00:16:10,040 --> 00:16:13,800
So you become sensitive to luck and that's through skill and knowledge and work.
所以你對運氣變得敏感，而那是透過技巧、知識和工作。

307
00:16:13,800 --> 00:16:17,280
And then the last kind of luck is the weirdest, hardest kind.
然後最後一種運氣是最奇怪、最困難的一種。

308
00:16:17,280 --> 00:16:22,360
But that's what we want to talk about, which is where you build a unique character, a unique
但這就是我們想談的，那就是你建立一個獨特的性格，一個獨特的

309
00:16:22,360 --> 00:16:27,300
brand, a unique mindset where then luck finds you.
品牌，一個獨特的心態，然後運氣就會找到你。

310
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For example, let's say that you're the best person in the world at deep sea underwater
例如，假設你是世界上最擅長深海潛水的

311
00:16:32,920 --> 00:16:37,800
diving and you're known to take on deep sea underwater dives that nobody else will even
人，而且你以敢於挑戰他人不敢嘗試的深海潛水而聞名。

312
00:16:37,800 --> 00:16:39,680
attempt to dare.
嘗試。

313
00:16:39,680 --> 00:16:45,720
And then by sheer luck, somebody finds a sunken treasure ship off the coast they can't get
然後純粹靠運氣，有人在他們無法到達的海岸邊發現了一艘沉沒的寶藏船。

314
00:16:45,720 --> 00:16:46,720
at.
在。

315
00:16:46,720 --> 00:16:50,000
And that just became your luck because they're going to come to you to get that treasure
而那正好成了你的運氣，因為他們會來找你尋寶，

316
00:16:50,000 --> 00:16:51,440
and you're going to get paid for it.
而你會因此得到報酬。

317
00:16:51,440 --> 00:16:55,360
Now that's an extreme example, but it's just showing how like the person who got lucky
這是一個極端的例子，但它只是展示了像那個幸運的

318
00:16:55,360 --> 00:16:58,080
by finding the treasure chest, that was blind luck.
人發現寶箱，那是盲目的運氣。

319
00:16:58,080 --> 00:17:02,480
But them coming to you and asking you to extract it and having to give you half, that's not
但他們來找你，要求你把它取出來，還得分你一半，那可不是

320
00:17:02,480 --> 00:17:03,480
luck.
運氣。

321
00:17:03,480 --> 00:17:04,480
You created your own luck.
你創造了自己的運氣。

322
00:17:04,480 --> 00:17:08,160
You put yourself in a position to be able to capitalize on that luck or to attract that
你讓自己處於能夠利用那份運氣或吸引那份

323
00:17:08,160 --> 00:17:12,040
luck when nobody else has created that opportunity for themselves.
運氣的位置，而其他人並沒有為自己創造那樣的機會。

324
00:17:12,040 --> 00:17:15,640
So when we talk about without getting lucky, we want to be deterministic.
所以當我們談到不靠運氣時，我們希望是確定的。

325
00:17:15,640 --> 00:17:17,160
We don't want to leave it to chance.
我們不希望把它交給偶然。

326
00:17:17,160 --> 00:17:22,080
Do you want to elaborate a little bit more on the idea that in a thousand parallel universes,
你是否想更詳細地闡述一下「在一千個平行宇宙中，

327
00:17:22,080 --> 00:17:25,640
you want to get rich in 999 of them?
你希望在其中 999 個致富」這個想法？

328
00:17:25,640 --> 00:17:30,200
I think some people are going to see that and say that sounds impossible, sounds like
我想有些人會看到這個，然後說那聽起來不可能，聽起來像是

329
00:17:30,200 --> 00:17:31,680
it's too good to be true.
好得令人難以置信。

330
00:17:31,680 --> 00:17:33,400
No, I don't think it's impossible.
不，我不認為這是不可能的。

331
00:17:33,400 --> 00:17:37,520
I think that you may have to work a little bit harder at it given your starting circumstances.
我認為，鑒於你的起點，你可能需要為此多努力一點。

332
00:17:37,520 --> 00:17:40,680
I mean, remember I started as a poor kid in India, right?
我的意思是，記得我是在印度長大的窮孩子，對吧？

333
00:17:40,680 --> 00:17:43,760
So if I can make it, anybody can in that sense.
所以如果我能成功，從那個意義上來說，任何人都可以。

334
00:17:43,760 --> 00:17:48,700
Now obviously I had all my limbs and I had my mental faculties and I did have an education.
當然，我四肢健全，心智正常，而且我確實受過教育。

335
00:17:48,700 --> 00:17:50,940
So there are some prerequisites you can get passed.
所以有一些先決條件你是可以通過的。

336
00:17:50,940 --> 00:17:56,520
But if you're listening to this video or podcast, you probably have the requisite means at your
但如果你正在收聽這個影片或播客，你可能已經擁有必要的

337
00:17:56,520 --> 00:17:59,120
disposal, which is a functioning body and a functioning mind.
資源，那就是一個健全的身體和一個健全的心智。

338
00:17:59,120 --> 00:18:01,520
And I've encountered plenty of bad luck along the way.
而且我一路上也遇到了很多壞運氣。

339
00:18:01,520 --> 00:18:04,840
First little fortune that I made, I instantly lost in the stock market.
我賺到的第一筆小錢，立刻就在股市裡輸光了。

340
00:18:04,840 --> 00:18:09,600
The second little fortune that I made or I should have made, I got cheated by my business
我賺到的第二筆小錢，或者說我本該賺到的，被我的事業

341
00:18:09,600 --> 00:18:10,600
partners.
夥伴騙了。

342
00:18:10,600 --> 00:18:14,760
And the third time around has been a charm and even then it has been in a slow and steady
而第三次就成功了，即使如此，它也是一個緩慢而穩定的

343
00:18:14,760 --> 00:18:19,480
struggle and I haven't made money in my life in one giant payout.
掙扎，我一生中從未靠一次性的巨額收入賺過錢。

344
00:18:19,480 --> 00:18:23,500
It's always been a whole bunch of small things piling up.
總是有一大堆小事堆積起來。

345
00:18:23,500 --> 00:18:28,200
So it's more about consistently creating wealth by creating businesses and creating opportunities
所以這更像是透過創造企業和創造機會來持續地創造財富。

346
00:18:28,200 --> 00:18:29,840
and creating investments.
以及創造投資。

347
00:18:29,840 --> 00:18:32,520
It hasn't been like a giant one-off thing.
這不像是一次性的巨大事件。

348
00:18:32,520 --> 00:18:37,080
My personal wealth has not been generated by one big year.
我的個人財富並非來自於某個大豐收的一年。

349
00:18:37,080 --> 00:18:41,800
It just stacks up a little bit chips at a time, more options, more businesses, more
它只是每次一點點地累積籌碼，更多的選擇、更多的事業、更多的

350
00:18:41,800 --> 00:18:43,360
investments, more things I can do.
投資，更多我能做的事情。

351
00:18:43,360 --> 00:18:47,320
Same way someone like a Nenad, Elisardus, he's building his brand online.
就像 Nenad，Elisardus 這樣的人，他正在網路上建立自己的品牌。

352
00:18:47,320 --> 00:18:48,720
He's building videos.
他正在製作影片。

353
00:18:48,720 --> 00:18:53,640
It's not like any one video is going to suddenly shower him with riches overnight.
並不是說任何一個影片就能讓他一夜暴富。

354
00:18:53,640 --> 00:18:59,160
It's going to be a long lifetime of learning, of reading, of creating that's just going
這將會是一個漫長的學習、閱讀、創造的一生，那將會

355
00:18:59,160 --> 00:19:00,320
to compound.
不斷地複利增長。

356
00:19:00,320 --> 00:19:04,280
So we're talking about getting wealthy so you can retire, so you have your freedom.
所以我們談的是變得富有，這樣你才能退休，才能擁有你的自由。

357
00:19:04,280 --> 00:19:07,360
Not retire in the sense that you don't do anything but in the sense that you don't have
不是說退休就是什麼都不做，而是指你不需要

358
00:19:07,360 --> 00:19:10,240
to be any place you don't want to be, you don't have to do anything you don't want to
去任何你不想去的地方，不需要做任何你不想做的

359
00:19:10,240 --> 00:19:13,880
do and you can wake up when you want, you can sleep when you want, you don't have a
事，你可以想什麼時候起床就什麼時候起床，想什麼時候睡覺就什麼時候睡覺，你沒有

360
00:19:13,880 --> 00:19:14,880
boss.
老闆。

361
00:19:14,880 --> 00:19:15,880
That's freedom.
那才是自由。

362
00:19:15,880 --> 00:19:19,000
So we're talking about enough wealth to get to freedom and especially thanks to the internet
所以我們談的是足夠的財富以獲得自由，特別是感謝網際網路

363
00:19:19,000 --> 00:19:22,520
these days, those opportunities are massively abundant.
這些天，這些機會非常多。

364
00:19:22,520 --> 00:19:25,320
I in fact have too many ways to make money.
事實上，我賺錢的方法太多了。

365
00:19:25,320 --> 00:19:26,840
I don't have enough time.
我沒有足夠的時間。

366
00:19:26,840 --> 00:19:30,440
I literally have opportunities pouring out of my ears and the thing I keep running out
我的機會多到滿出來，而我一直不夠的

367
00:19:30,440 --> 00:19:31,640
of is time.
是時間。

368
00:19:31,640 --> 00:19:35,560
There's just so many ways to create wealth, to create products, to create businesses,
有太多方法可以創造財富、創造產品、創造事業、

369
00:19:35,560 --> 00:19:40,320
to create opportunities and to as a byproduct get paid by society that I just can't even
創造機會，並作為副產品被社會支付，我甚至無法

370
00:19:40,320 --> 00:19:41,320
handle it all.
應付這一切。

371
00:19:41,320 --> 00:19:47,040
AC I think it's pretty interesting that the first three kinds of luck that you described,
AC 我覺得很有趣的是，你描述的前三種運氣，

372
00:19:47,040 --> 00:19:52,800
there are very common cliches for them that everybody knows and then for that last kind
都有大家耳熟能詳的俗語，但對於最後那種

373
00:19:52,800 --> 00:19:59,320
of luck that comes to you out of the unique way that you act, there's no real cliche for
因你獨特的行事方式而降臨的運氣，卻沒有什麼真正的俗語

374
00:19:59,320 --> 00:20:00,320
it.
來形容它。

375
00:20:00,320 --> 00:20:03,520
So for the first three kinds, there's dumb luck or blind luck.
所以前三種，有「傻運」或「瞎運」。

376
00:20:03,520 --> 00:20:05,100
That's the first kind of luck.
那是第一種運氣。

377
00:20:05,100 --> 00:20:08,920
The second kind of luck, there's the cliche that fortune favors the bold.
第二種運氣，有句俗話說「天道酬勤」。

378
00:20:08,920 --> 00:20:13,040
That's a person who gets lucky just by stirring the pot and acting.
那是指一個人光靠攪動局面和行動就獲得好運。

379
00:20:13,040 --> 00:20:17,620
The third kind of luck, people say that chance favors the prepared mind.
第三種運氣，人們說「機會是給準備好的人」。

380
00:20:17,620 --> 00:20:23,960
But for the fourth kind of luck, there is not really a common cliche out there that matches
但對於第四種運氣，並沒有一個真正普遍的俗語能與

381
00:20:23,960 --> 00:20:29,720
the unique character of your action, which I think is interesting and perhaps an opportunity
你行動的獨特特質相匹配，我認為這很有趣，也許是一個機會

382
00:20:29,720 --> 00:20:34,680
and it also just shows that people aren't necessarily taking advantage of that kind of luck the
而且它也只是表明，人們不一定會以

383
00:20:34,680 --> 00:20:35,680
way they should be.
他們應有的方式來利用那種運氣。

384
00:20:35,680 --> 00:20:42,680
AC I think also at that point, it starts becoming so deterministic that it stops being luck.
AC 我認為在那個時候，它變得如此確定，以至於不再是運氣。

385
00:20:42,680 --> 00:20:47,200
So the definition starts fading from luck to more destiny.
所以定義開始從運氣淡化為更接近命運。

386
00:20:47,200 --> 00:20:51,360
So I would characterize that fourth one is you build your character in a certain way
所以我會把第四種描述為：你以某種方式塑造你的品格

387
00:20:51,360 --> 00:20:53,920
and then your character becomes your destiny.
然後你的品格就成為你的命運。

388
00:20:53,920 --> 00:20:59,320
One of the things I think that is important to making money, you want the kind of reputation
我認為賺錢的重要事情之一，是你需要那種

389
00:20:59,320 --> 00:21:03,080
that makes people do deals through you.
能讓人透過你來做交易的聲譽。

390
00:21:03,080 --> 00:21:06,160
You know, I use the example of like, if you're a great diver, then treasure hunters will
你知道，我用這樣的例子，如果你是一個很棒的潛水員，那麼尋寶人會

391
00:21:06,160 --> 00:21:09,040
come and give you a piece of the treasure for your diving skills.
來找你，給你一部分寶藏以換取你的潛水技巧。

392
00:21:09,040 --> 00:21:15,640
If you're a trusted, reliable, high integrity, long-term thinking deal maker, then when other
如果你是一個值得信賴、可靠、高誠信、有長遠眼光的交易者，那麼當其他人

393
00:21:15,640 --> 00:21:19,800
people want to do deals, but they don't know how to do them in a trustworthy manner with
想做交易，但他們不知道如何以可信賴的方式與

394
00:21:19,800 --> 00:21:24,040
strangers, they will literally approach you and give you a cut of the deal or offer you
陌生人進行交易時，他們真的會來找你，給你交易的分成或提供你

395
00:21:24,040 --> 00:21:29,080
a unique deal just because of the integrity and reputation that you've built up.
一個獨特的交易，就只因為你建立起來的誠信和聲譽。

396
00:21:29,080 --> 00:21:33,760
Warren Buffett, he gets offered deals and he gets to buy companies and he gets to buy warrants
華倫·巴菲特，他會被提供交易機會，他可以收購公司，他可以購買認股權證，

397
00:21:33,760 --> 00:21:38,360
and bailout banks and do things that other people can't do because of his reputation.
並救助銀行，做一些其他人因為他的聲譽而無法做的事情。

398
00:21:38,360 --> 00:21:39,360
But of course, that's fragile.
但當然，那是很脆弱的。

399
00:21:39,360 --> 00:21:41,540
It has accountability on the line.
它有責任在其中。

400
00:21:41,540 --> 00:21:43,300
It has a strong brand on the line.
它有一個強大的品牌在其中。

401
00:21:43,300 --> 00:21:46,480
And as we will talk about later that comes with accountability attached.
就像我們稍後會談到的，那伴隨著責任。

402
00:21:46,480 --> 00:21:52,160
But I would say your character, your reputation, these are things that you can build that then
但我要說，你的品格、你的聲譽，這些是你能夠建立的東西，然後

403
00:21:52,160 --> 00:21:57,300
will let you take out advantages of opportunities that other people may characterize as lucky,
它們會讓你有機會利用別人可能稱之為幸運的機會，

404
00:21:57,300 --> 00:21:59,280
but you know that it wasn't luck.
但你知道那不是運氣。

405
00:21:59,280 --> 00:22:04,520
You said that this fourth kind of luck is more or less a destiny.
你說這第四種運氣或多或少是一種命運。

406
00:22:04,520 --> 00:22:11,120
There's a quote from that original book that was in Mark's blog post from Benjamin Disraeli,
在那本原著中，也就是在馬克的部落格文章中，有一句班傑明·迪斯雷利的引言，

407
00:22:11,120 --> 00:22:15,120
who I think was the former prime minister of the UK.
我認為他是英國前首相。

408
00:22:15,120 --> 00:22:20,440
The quote to describe this kind of luck was, "We make our fortunes and we call them fate."
描述這種運氣的名言是：「我們創造自己的財富，並稱之為命運。」

409
00:22:20,440 --> 00:22:24,920
There were a couple other interesting things about this kind of luck that were mentioned
關於這種運氣，還有幾件有趣的事情被提到

410
00:22:24,920 --> 00:22:25,920
in the blog post.
在部落格文章中。

411
00:22:25,920 --> 00:22:30,200
I think it will be good for the listeners to hear about is that this fourth kind of luck
我想讓聽眾聽聽會很有幫助的是，這第四種運氣

412
00:22:30,200 --> 00:22:36,360
can almost come out of eccentric ways that you do your things and that eccentricity is
幾乎可以來自於你做事的古怪方式，而那種古怪

413
00:22:36,360 --> 00:22:39,280
not necessarily a bad thing in this case.
在這種情況下不一定是壞事。

414
00:22:39,280 --> 00:22:40,440
In fact, it's a good thing.
事實上，這是件好事。

415
00:22:40,440 --> 00:22:41,440
Yeah, absolutely.
是的，絕對是。

416
00:22:41,440 --> 00:22:43,360
Because the world is a very efficient place.
因為世界是一個非常有效率的地方。

417
00:22:43,360 --> 00:22:47,200
So everyone has dug through all the obvious places to dig.
所以每個人都已經挖掘了所有明顯可挖掘的地方。

418
00:22:47,200 --> 00:22:52,800
And so to find something that's new and novel and uncovered, it helps to be operating on
因此，為了找到新的、新穎的、未被發現的東西，在

419
00:22:52,800 --> 00:22:56,560
a frontier where right there you have to be a little eccentric to be out on the frontier
一個前沿地帶運作是有幫助的，在那裡，你必須有點古怪才能獨自在前沿

420
00:22:56,560 --> 00:22:57,720
by yourself.
探索。

421
00:22:57,720 --> 00:23:02,080
And then you just have to be willing to dig deeper than other people do, deeper than seems
然後你只需要願意比別人挖得更深，比看起來

422
00:23:02,080 --> 00:23:04,760
irrational just because you're interested.
不理性的更深，只因為你感興趣。

423
00:23:04,760 --> 00:23:10,080
Yeah, the two quotes that I've seen that express this kind of luck in addition to that Benjamin
是的，除了那句班傑明·迪斯雷利的名言之外，我看到的另外兩句表達這種運氣的話是：

424
00:23:10,080 --> 00:23:15,460
Disraeli one are this one from Sam Altman where he said, "Extreme people get extreme
一個是來自 Sam Altman，他說：「極端的人得到極端的

425
00:23:15,460 --> 00:23:16,840
results."
結果。」

426
00:23:16,840 --> 00:23:18,920
I think that's pretty nice.
我覺得那很不錯。

427
00:23:18,920 --> 00:23:23,840
And then there's this other one from Jeffrey Pfeffer who is a professor at Stanford that
還有另一個是來自史丹佛大學的教授 Jeffrey Pfeffer，他說

428
00:23:23,840 --> 00:23:27,440
"You can't be normal and expect abnormal returns."
「你不能既正常又期望不正常的報酬。」

429
00:23:27,440 --> 00:23:29,560
I've always enjoyed that one too.
我也一直很喜歡那一句。

430
00:23:29,560 --> 00:23:34,560
Yeah, and one quote that I like which is the exact opposite of that is "Play stupid games,
是的，而我喜歡的一句引言，正好與之相反，是「玩愚蠢的遊戲，

431
00:23:34,560 --> 00:23:35,560
win stupid prizes."
贏得愚蠢的獎品。」

432
00:23:35,560 --> 00:23:36,560
Right?
對吧？

433
00:23:36,560 --> 00:23:40,680
A lot of people spend a lot of their time playing social games like on Twitter where
很多人花很多時間玩社交遊戲，像是在推特上，你只是

434
00:23:40,680 --> 00:23:44,540
you're just trying to improve your social standing and you basically win stupid social
試圖提升你的社會地位，而你基本上贏得的是愚蠢的社交

435
00:23:44,540 --> 00:23:46,520
prizes which are worthless.
獎品，那毫無價值。

436
00:23:46,520 --> 00:23:53,880
I guess the last thing that I have from this blog post is just the idea that by pursuing
我想，我從這篇部落格文章中得到的最後一件事，就是藉由追求

437
00:23:53,880 --> 00:23:59,480
these kinds of luck, especially the last one, basically everything but dumb luck, by pursuing
這些運氣，特別是最後一種，基本上除了純粹的運氣之外，透過追求

438
00:23:59,480 --> 00:24:03,200
them you essentially run out of unlock.
它們，你基本上就會用盡你的好運。

439
00:24:03,200 --> 00:24:08,560
So if you just keep stirring the pot and stirring the pot, that alone you will run out of unlock.
所以如果你只是不斷地攪動局面，光是這樣，你的好運就會用光。

440
00:24:08,560 --> 00:24:11,480
Yeah, or it could just be a reversion to the mean, right?
是的，或者那可能只是回歸均值，對吧？

441
00:24:11,480 --> 00:24:16,440
So then you at least neutralize luck so that it's your own talents that come into play.
這樣你至少能中和運氣，讓你的才能得以發揮。

442
00:24:16,440 --> 00:24:22,400
Next you go into more specific details on how you can actually get rich and how you can't
接下來，你將更具體地詳細說明你如何真正致富，以及如何不能

443
00:24:22,400 --> 00:24:23,520
get rich.
致富。

444
00:24:23,520 --> 00:24:26,200
The first point was about how you're not going to get rich.
第一點是關於你如何不會致富。

445
00:24:26,200 --> 00:24:28,920
You're not going to get rich renting out your time.
你不會靠出租你的時間致富。

446
00:24:28,920 --> 00:24:33,640
You must own equity, a piece of a business to gain your financial freedom.
你必須擁有股權，也就是企業的一部分，才能獲得你的財務自由。

447
00:24:33,640 --> 00:24:37,520
This is probably one of the absolute most important points.
這可能是最最重要的一點。

448
00:24:37,520 --> 00:24:43,500
People seem to think that you can create wealth and make money through work and it's probably
人們似乎認為可以透過工作創造財富和賺錢，但這可能

449
00:24:43,500 --> 00:24:44,720
not going to work.
行不通。

450
00:24:44,720 --> 00:24:49,180
There are many reasons for that, but the most basic is just that your inputs are very closely
這有很多原因，但最基本的原因是你的投入與你的產出非常

451
00:24:49,180 --> 00:24:50,560
tied to your outputs.
緊密地聯繫在一起。

452
00:24:50,560 --> 00:24:56,040
In almost any salaried job, even at one that's paying a lot per hour like a lawyer or a doctor,
在幾乎任何領薪水的工作中，即使是像律師或醫生這樣時薪很高的工作，

453
00:24:56,040 --> 00:25:00,480
you're still putting in the hours and every hour you get paid.
你仍然在投入時間，每小時都能拿到報酬。

454
00:25:00,480 --> 00:25:03,880
So what that means is when you're sleeping you're not earning, when you're retired you're
所以那意味著你睡覺的時候不賺錢，你退休的時候不賺錢，

455
00:25:03,880 --> 00:25:08,040
not earning, when you're on vacation you're not earning and you can't earn nonlinearly.
你度假的時候不賺錢，你無法非線性地賺錢。

456
00:25:08,040 --> 00:25:11,660
If you look at even doctors who get rich, like really rich, it's because they open a
如果你看看那些致富的醫生，我是說真正致富的，那是因為他們開了一家

457
00:25:11,660 --> 00:25:15,640
business, they open like a private practice and that private practice builds a brand and
公司，他們開了像私人診所，而那個私人診所建立了一個品牌，

458
00:25:15,640 --> 00:25:19,840
that brand attracts people or they build some kind of medical device or a procedure or a
那個品牌吸引人們，或者他們研發某種醫療器材、手術或

459
00:25:19,840 --> 00:25:22,200
process where they have intellectual property.
流程，他們擁有智慧財產權。

460
00:25:22,200 --> 00:25:26,600
So essentially you're working for somebody else and that person is taking on the risk
所以基本上你在為別人工作，而那個人承擔著風險，

461
00:25:26,600 --> 00:25:30,120
and has the accountability and the intellectual property and the brand.
擁有責任、智慧財產權和品牌。

462
00:25:30,120 --> 00:25:31,920
So they're just not going to pay you enough.
所以他們不會付給你足夠的錢。

463
00:25:31,920 --> 00:25:35,560
They're going to pay you the bare minimum that they have to to get you a good job and
他們只會付給你為了讓你有一份好工作所必須支付的最低工資，

464
00:25:35,560 --> 00:25:39,440
that can be a high bare minimum, but it's still not going to be true wealth where you're
那可能是一個很高的最低工資，但它仍然不是你退休後的真正財富。

465
00:25:39,440 --> 00:25:40,440
retired.
退休了。

466
00:25:40,440 --> 00:25:44,760
And then finally you're actually just not even creating that much original for society.
最後，你其實甚至沒有為社會創造那麼多原創的東西。

467
00:25:44,760 --> 00:25:47,920
Like I said this tweetstorm should have been called "How to Create Wealth" it's just
就像我說的，這個推文風暴應該叫做「如何創造財富」，只是

468
00:25:47,920 --> 00:25:52,920
"How to Get Rich" was a more catchy title, but you're not creating new things for society.
「如何致富」是個更吸引人的標題，但你並沒有為社會創造新東西。

469
00:25:52,920 --> 00:25:57,280
You're just doing things over and over and you're essentially replaceable because you're
你只是在重複做同樣的事，而且你基本上是可替代的，因為你

470
00:25:57,280 --> 00:25:59,640
now doing a set role.
現在扮演著一個固定的角色。

471
00:25:59,640 --> 00:26:01,400
Most set roles can be taught.
大多數固定的角色都是可以教的。

472
00:26:01,400 --> 00:26:05,680
If they can be taught like in a school then eventually you'll be competing with someone
如果它們可以在學校裡被教導，那麼最終你會和一個

473
00:26:05,680 --> 00:26:09,480
who's got more recent knowledge, who's been taught and is coming in to replace you.
擁有更新知識、受過教導的人競爭，他會來取代你。

474
00:26:09,480 --> 00:26:14,560
You're much more likely to be doing a job that can be eventually replaced by a robot or by
你更有可能在做一份最終會被機器人或

475
00:26:14,560 --> 00:26:17,960
an AI and it doesn't even have to be wholesale replaced overnight.
AI 取代的工作，而且它甚至不需要一夜之間被完全取代。

476
00:26:17,960 --> 00:26:22,480
It can be replaced a little bit of a time and that eats into your wealth creation and
它可以被一點一點地取代，而那會侵蝕你的財富創造，

477
00:26:22,480 --> 00:26:24,520
therefore your earning capability.
因此也侵蝕你的賺錢能力。

478
00:26:24,520 --> 00:26:29,320
So fundamentally your inputs are matched to your outputs, you are replaceable and you're
所以基本上你的投入等於你的產出，你是可替代的，而且你

479
00:26:29,320 --> 00:26:30,560
not being creative.
沒有創造力。

480
00:26:30,560 --> 00:26:34,160
I just don't think that that is a way that you can truly make money.
我只是不認為那是你真正可以賺錢的方式。

481
00:26:34,160 --> 00:26:39,800
So everybody who really makes money at some point owns a piece of a product or a business
所以每個真正賺錢的人，在某個時間點都擁有一個產品、一個企業

482
00:26:39,800 --> 00:26:41,640
or some kind of IP.
或某種智慧財產權的一部分。

483
00:26:41,640 --> 00:26:45,160
That can be through stock options, so if you can be working at a tech company that's a
那可以透過股票選擇權，所以如果你能在一家科技公司工作，那是一個

484
00:26:45,160 --> 00:26:46,360
fine way to start.
很好的開始。

485
00:26:46,360 --> 00:26:52,400
But usually the real wealth is created by starting your own companies or by even investors,
但通常真正的財富是透過創立自己的公司，或者甚至是投資者來創造的，

486
00:26:52,400 --> 00:26:54,840
they're in an investment firm and they're buying equity.
他們在投資公司，他們在購買股權。

487
00:26:54,840 --> 00:26:58,960
So these are much more the routes to wealth, it doesn't come through the hours.
所以這些才是致富的途徑，它不是靠時間換來的。

488
00:26:58,960 --> 00:27:03,840
You really just want a job or a career or a profession where your inputs don't match
你真正想要的只是一份工作、一份事業或一份職業，你的投入與你的產出

489
00:27:03,840 --> 00:27:04,960
your outputs.
不成正比。

490
00:27:04,960 --> 00:27:09,240
So if you look at modern society, again this is later in the tweet storm, businesses that
所以如果你看看現代社會，這又是推文風暴中後面提到的，那些

491
00:27:09,240 --> 00:27:14,680
have high creativity and high leverage tend to be ones where you could do an hour of work
具有高創造力和高槓桿作用的企業，往往是那種你工作一小時

492
00:27:14,680 --> 00:27:17,840
and it can have a huge effect or you can do a thousand hours of work and it can have no
就能產生巨大影響，或者你工作一千個小時卻可能沒有

493
00:27:17,840 --> 00:27:18,840
effect.
任何效果。

494
00:27:18,840 --> 00:27:20,560
For example, look at software engineering.
例如，看看軟體工程。

495
00:27:20,560 --> 00:27:24,440
One great engineer can, for example, create Bitcoin and create billions of dollars worth
一個偉大的工程師，例如，可以創造比特幣，創造數十億美元的

496
00:27:24,440 --> 00:27:26,120
of value.
價值。

497
00:27:26,120 --> 00:27:30,560
An engineer who's working on the wrong thing or not quite as good or just not as creative
一個工程師如果做錯了事，或者不夠好，或者只是不夠有創意，

498
00:27:30,560 --> 00:27:36,160
or thoughtful or whatever can work for an entire year and every piece of code they ship ends
或思慮不周，或任何其他原因，可能工作了一整年，而他們發布的每一段程式碼最終

499
00:27:36,160 --> 00:27:37,840
up not getting used.
都沒有被使用。

500
00:27:37,840 --> 00:27:39,000
Customers don't want it.
客戶不想要它。

501
00:27:39,000 --> 00:27:43,880
That is an example of a profession where the input and the outputs are highly disconnected.
這就是一個投入與產出高度脫鉤的職業的例子。

502
00:27:43,880 --> 00:27:45,960
It's not based on the number of hours that you put in.
它不是基於你投入的小時數。

503
00:27:45,960 --> 00:27:50,280
Whereas on the extreme other end, if you're a lumberjack, even the best lumberjack in the
而在另一個極端，如果你是一個伐木工，即使是世界上最好的伐木工，

504
00:27:50,280 --> 00:27:53,840
world, assuming they're not working with tools, the inputs and outputs are pretty connected
假設他們不使用工具，投入和產出是相當緊密聯繫的，

505
00:27:53,840 --> 00:27:58,680
and just using an axe or a saw, the best lumberjack in the world may be like 3X better than one
而只使用斧頭或鋸子，世界上最好的伐木工可能比其中一個

506
00:27:58,680 --> 00:27:59,680
of the worst lumberjacks.
最差的伐木工好三倍。

507
00:27:59,680 --> 00:28:02,560
It's not going to be a gigantic difference.
這不會有巨大的差異。

508
00:28:02,560 --> 00:28:06,640
You want to look for professions and careers where the inputs and the outputs are highly
你想尋找那種投入與產出高度

509
00:28:06,640 --> 00:28:07,640
disconnected.
脫鉤的職業和生涯。

510
00:28:07,640 --> 00:28:11,640
This is another way of saying that you want to look for things that are leveraged.
這是另一種說法，就是你想尋找有槓桿作用的東西。

511
00:28:11,640 --> 00:28:16,240
By leveraged, I don't mean financial leverage alone like Wall Street uses and that has a
我說的槓桿，不單指華爾街使用的那種金融槓桿，那名聲不好。

512
00:28:16,240 --> 00:28:17,240
bad name.
壞名聲。

513
00:28:17,240 --> 00:28:18,680
I'm just talking about tools.
我只是在談論工具。

514
00:28:18,680 --> 00:28:20,320
We're using tools.
我們在使用工具。

515
00:28:20,320 --> 00:28:22,480
Computer is a tool that software engineers use.
電腦是軟體工程師使用的工具。

516
00:28:22,480 --> 00:28:27,560
If I'm a lumberjack with bulldozers and automatic robot axes and saws, I'm going to be using
如果我是一個擁有推土機、自動機器人斧頭和鋸子的伐木工，我將會使用

517
00:28:27,560 --> 00:28:31,440
tools and have more leverage than someone who's just using his bare hands and trying to rip
工具並擁有比只用赤手空拳試圖拔

518
00:28:31,440 --> 00:28:33,920
the trees out by their roots.
樹根的人更大的槓桿。

519
00:28:33,920 --> 00:28:38,240
Tools and leverage are what create this disconnection between inputs and outputs.
工具和槓桿是造成投入與產出脫鉤的原因。

520
00:28:38,240 --> 00:28:42,560
Creativity, so the higher the creativity component of a profession, the more likely
創造力，所以一個職業的創造力成分越高，就越有可能

521
00:28:42,560 --> 00:28:45,120
it is to have disconnected inputs and outputs.
有脫鉤的投入與產出。

522
00:28:45,120 --> 00:28:49,480
So I think that if you're looking at professions where your inputs and your outputs are highly
所以我認為，如果你在尋找那種你的投入和產出高度

523
00:28:49,480 --> 00:28:54,080
connected, it's going to be very, very, very hard to create wealth and make wealth for
相關的職業，那麼要創造財富、為自己賺取財富將會非常、非常、非常困難。

524
00:28:54,080 --> 00:28:56,120
yourself in that process.
在這個過程中。

525
00:28:56,120 --> 00:29:00,280
Any other big things you should avoid other than renting out your time?
除了出租你的時間，還有其他什麼大事情你應該避免的嗎？

526
00:29:00,280 --> 00:29:03,640
Yeah, there are two tweets that I put out that are related.
是的，我發了兩則相關的推文。

527
00:29:03,640 --> 00:29:09,560
So the first one was talking about how your lifestyle shouldn't get upgraded too fast.
所以第一則是關於你的生活方式不應升級得太快。

528
00:29:09,560 --> 00:29:14,840
And that one said, "People who are living far below their means enjoy a freedom that
那則推文說：「那些遠低於自己收入水平生活的人，享有一種自由，

529
00:29:14,840 --> 00:29:18,120
people busy upgrading their lifestyles just can't fathom."
而那些忙於升級生活方式的人是無法理解的。」

530
00:29:18,120 --> 00:29:21,880
And I think that's very important, just to not upgrade your lifestyle all the time, to
我認為那非常重要，就是不要一直升級你的生活方式，以

531
00:29:21,880 --> 00:29:22,880
maintain your freedom.
維持你的自由。

532
00:29:22,880 --> 00:29:25,520
And it just gives you freedom of operation.
而且它給了你行動的自由。

533
00:29:25,520 --> 00:29:29,000
Once you make a little bit of money, you still want to be living like your old self.
一旦你賺了一點錢，你仍然想過著像以前一樣的生活。

534
00:29:29,000 --> 00:29:30,720
So that just the worry goes away.
這樣憂慮就會消失。

535
00:29:30,720 --> 00:29:33,800
So don't go out to upgrade that house and lifestyle and all that stuff.
所以不要急著去升級你的房子、生活方式和所有那些東西。

536
00:29:33,800 --> 00:29:36,240
Let's say you're going to get a thousand dollars an hour.
假設你每小時能賺一千美元。

537
00:29:36,240 --> 00:29:41,480
The problem is that when you go into a work lifestyle like that, you don't just suddenly
問題是，當你進入那樣的工作生活方式時，你不會突然

538
00:29:41,480 --> 00:29:44,680
go from making $20 an hour to making a thousand dollars an hour.
從每小時賺 20 美元變成每小時賺一千美元。

539
00:29:44,680 --> 00:29:46,760
That's a progression over a long career.
那是漫長職業生涯中的一個進程。

540
00:29:46,760 --> 00:29:51,840
And as that happens, one subtle problem is that you upgrade your lifestyle as you make
而當那發生時，一個微妙的問題是你會隨著賺

541
00:29:51,840 --> 00:29:53,040
more and more money.
越來越多的錢而升級你的生活方式。

542
00:29:53,040 --> 00:29:57,920
And that upgrading of the lifestyle ups what you consider to be wealth, and you stay in
而生活方式的升級提高了你對財富的定義，你也就一直待在

543
00:29:57,920 --> 00:29:59,840
this wage slave trap.
這個薪水奴隸的陷阱裡。

544
00:29:59,840 --> 00:30:03,840
So I forget who said it, maybe it was Nassim Taleb, but he said, "The most dangerous things
所以我忘了是誰說的，也許是 Nassim Taleb，但他說：「最危險的東西

545
00:30:03,840 --> 00:30:06,800
are heroin and a monthly salary."
是海洛因和月薪。」

546
00:30:06,800 --> 00:30:08,320
Because they're highly addictive.
因為它們非常容易上癮。

547
00:30:08,320 --> 00:30:13,080
The way you want to get wealthy is you want to be poor and working and working and working.
你想致富的方式，是你想要貧窮地工作、工作再工作。

548
00:30:13,080 --> 00:30:16,440
And this is, for example, how the tech industry works, where you don't make any money for
這就是，例如，科技產業的運作方式，你在十年內賺不到任何錢。

549
00:30:16,440 --> 00:30:17,440
10 years.
十年。

550
00:30:17,440 --> 00:30:20,920
And then suddenly in year 11, you might have a giant payday, which is, by the way, one
然後突然在第 11 年，你可能會有一筆巨額收入，順帶一提，這就是

551
00:30:20,920 --> 00:30:25,400
reason why these very high marginal tax rates for the so-called wealthy are flawed, because
為什麼那些針對所謂富人的非常高的邊際稅率是有缺陷的原因之一，因為

552
00:30:25,400 --> 00:30:31,120
the highest risk taking most creative professions literally lose money for a decade of your life
那些風險最高、最具創造力的職業，在你生命中的十年裡真的都在虧錢，

553
00:30:31,120 --> 00:30:34,200
while you take massive risk and you bleed and bleed and bleed.
你承擔著巨大的風險，你不斷地流血。

554
00:30:34,200 --> 00:30:38,400
And then suddenly in year 11 or year 15, you might have one single big payday.
然後突然在第 11 年或第 15 年，你可能會有一筆巨大的收入。

555
00:30:38,400 --> 00:30:42,280
But then of course, Uncle Sam show up and say, "Hey, you know what?
但當然，山姆大叔就會出現說：「嘿，你知道嗎？

556
00:30:42,280 --> 00:30:43,880
You just made a lot of money this year.
你今年賺了很多錢。

557
00:30:43,880 --> 00:30:47,000
Therefore you're rich, therefore you're evil, and you got to hand it all over to us."
因此你很富有，因此你很邪惡，你得把所有的都交給我們。」

558
00:30:47,000 --> 00:30:50,720
So it just destroys those kinds of creative risk taking professions.
所以它只會摧毀那些具創造性的冒險職業。

559
00:30:50,720 --> 00:30:56,320
But ideally, you want to make your money in discrete lumps separated over long periods
但理想情況下，你希望你的錢是以分散的大筆款項，在很長一段時間內

560
00:30:56,320 --> 00:31:00,840
of time so that your own lifestyle does not have a chance to adapt quickly.
間隔賺取，這樣你自己的生活方式就沒有機會快速適應。

561
00:31:00,840 --> 00:31:03,200
And then you can say, "Okay, now I'm done.
然後你就可以說：「好了，我現在完成了。

562
00:31:03,200 --> 00:31:04,400
Now I'm retired.
我現在退休了。

563
00:31:04,400 --> 00:31:05,400
Now I'm free.
我現在自由了。

564
00:31:05,400 --> 00:31:08,880
I'm still going to work because you got to do something with your life, but I'm going
我仍然會工作，因為你總得做點什麼，但我會

565
00:31:08,880 --> 00:31:11,320
to work on only the things that I want when I want."
只在我想做的時候，做我想做的事情。」

566
00:31:11,320 --> 00:31:15,600
And it's going to be much more creative expression and much less about money.
而且那將會是更具創造性的表達，而較少關乎金錢。

567
00:31:15,600 --> 00:31:20,820
You're not going to get rich renting out your time, but you say that you will get rich by
你不會靠出租你的時間致富，但你說你會致富是透過

568
00:31:20,820 --> 00:31:26,600
giving society what it wants, but does not yet know how to get at scale.
給予社會它想要，但還不知道如何大規模獲取的東西。

569
00:31:26,600 --> 00:31:27,600
That's right.
沒錯。

570
00:31:27,600 --> 00:31:32,400
So essentially, as we talked about before, money is IOUs from society saying, "You did
所以基本上，就像我們之前談到的，金錢是社會發出的欠條，說：「你過去

571
00:31:32,400 --> 00:31:33,920
something good in the past.
做了好事。

572
00:31:33,920 --> 00:31:36,840
Now here's something that we owe you for the future."
現在這是我們未來欠你的。」

573
00:31:36,840 --> 00:31:41,780
And so society will pay you for creating things that it wants.
所以社會會為你創造它想要的東西而付錢給你。

574
00:31:41,780 --> 00:31:47,240
But society doesn't yet know how to create those things because if it did, it would need
但社會還不知道如何創造那些東西，因為如果它知道，它就需要

575
00:31:47,240 --> 00:31:48,240
you.
你。

576
00:31:48,240 --> 00:31:49,880
They would already be stamped out big time.
它們早就已經被大規模生產出來了。

577
00:31:49,880 --> 00:31:54,340
Almost everything is in your house, in your workplace, and on the street used to be technology
幾乎你家裡、你工作場所和街上的每樣東西，在某個時間點都曾是科技。

578
00:31:54,340 --> 00:31:55,340
at one point in time.
在某個時間點。

579
00:31:55,340 --> 00:31:58,920
There was a time when oil was technology that made J.B. Rockefeller rich.
曾有一段時間，石油是科技，讓洛克菲勒致富。

580
00:31:58,920 --> 00:32:02,520
There was a time when cars were technology that made Henry Ford rich.
曾有一段時間，汽車是科技，讓亨利·福特致富。

581
00:32:02,520 --> 00:32:07,560
So technology is just a set of things, as Alan Kay said, that don't quite work yet.
所以科技只是一系列的東西，就像 Alan Kay 說的，還不太能用的東西。

582
00:32:07,560 --> 00:32:10,060
Once something works, it's no longer technology.
一旦某樣東西能用了，它就不再是科技了。

583
00:32:10,060 --> 00:32:12,960
So society always wants new things.
所以社會總是想要新事物。

584
00:32:12,960 --> 00:32:17,520
And if you want to be wealthy, you want to figure out which one of those things you can
如果你想變得富有，你就需要找出你能為社會提供哪些

585
00:32:17,520 --> 00:32:22,500
provide for society that it does not yet know how to get, but it will want.
社會還不知道如何獲得，但它會想要的東西。

586
00:32:22,500 --> 00:32:26,380
That's natural to you and within your skill set, within your capabilities.
那對你來說是自然的，也在你的技能範圍內，在你的能力範圍內。

587
00:32:26,380 --> 00:32:28,320
And then you have to figure out how to scale it.
然後你必須想辦法擴大規模。

588
00:32:28,320 --> 00:32:30,080
Because if you just build one of it, that's not enough.
因為如果你只建造一個，那是不夠的。

589
00:32:30,080 --> 00:32:33,560
You've got to build thousands or hundreds of thousands or millions or billions of them
你得建造數千、數十萬、數百萬或數十億個，

590
00:32:33,560 --> 00:32:35,280
so everybody can have one.
這樣每個人都可以擁有一個。

591
00:32:35,280 --> 00:32:40,040
Steve Jobs and his team, of course, figured out that society would want smartphones, computer
史蒂夫·賈伯斯和他的團隊，當然，他們發現社會會想要智慧型手機，也就是口袋裡的電腦，

592
00:32:40,040 --> 00:32:44,660
in their pocket that had all the phone capability times 100 and be easy to use.
擁有百倍於手機的功能，而且使用起來很方便。

593
00:32:44,660 --> 00:32:46,900
So they figured out how to build that.
所以他們想出了如何建造它。

594
00:32:46,900 --> 00:32:48,700
And then they figured out how to scale it.
然後他們想出了如何擴大規模。

595
00:32:48,700 --> 00:32:52,700
And they figured out how to get one into every first world citizen's pocket and eventually
他們想出了如何讓每個第一世界公民的口袋裡都有一台，最終

596
00:32:52,700 --> 00:32:54,420
every third world citizen too.
每個第三世界公民也是。

597
00:32:54,420 --> 00:32:56,820
And so because of that, they're handsomely rewarded.
也因此，他們得到了豐厚的報酬。

598
00:32:56,820 --> 00:32:59,760
And Apple is the most valuable company in the world.
而蘋果是世界上最有價值的公司。

599
00:32:59,760 --> 00:33:06,120
The way I tried to put it was that the entrepreneur's job is to try to bring the high end to the
我試圖這樣說：企業家的工作就是試圖把高端的產品帶給

600
00:33:06,120 --> 00:33:07,500
mass market.
大眾市場。

601
00:33:07,500 --> 00:33:09,280
It starts as high end.
它從高端開始。

602
00:33:09,280 --> 00:33:11,420
First it starts with an act of creativity.
首先，它始於一個創造性的行為。

603
00:33:11,420 --> 00:33:13,600
First you create it just because you want it.
首先你創造它，只因為你想要它。

604
00:33:13,600 --> 00:33:16,660
You want it and you know how to build it and you need it.
你想要它，你知道如何建造它，而且你需要它。

605
00:33:16,660 --> 00:33:18,140
And so you build it for yourself.
所以你為自己建造它。

606
00:33:18,140 --> 00:33:20,760
Then you figure out how to get it to other people.
然後你想辦法把它給別人。

607
00:33:20,760 --> 00:33:22,700
And then for a little while, rich people have it.
然後有一段時間，富人擁有它。

608
00:33:22,700 --> 00:33:27,140
Like for example, rich people had chauffeurs and then they had black town cars and then
例如，富人有司機，然後他們有黑色的豪華轎車，然後

609
00:33:27,140 --> 00:33:30,860
Uber came along and everyone's private driver was available to everybody.
Uber 出現了，每個人的私人司機都對所有人開放。

610
00:33:30,860 --> 00:33:34,400
And now you can even see Uber pools that are replacing shuttle buses because it's just
現在你甚至可以看到 Uber 共乘正在取代接駁巴士，因為它更

611
00:33:34,400 --> 00:33:35,440
more convenient.
方便。

612
00:33:35,440 --> 00:33:38,300
And then you get scooters which are even further down market of that.
然後你有了電動滑板車，那又是更低階的市場。

613
00:33:38,300 --> 00:33:42,920
So you're right, it's about distributing what rich people used to have to everybody.
所以你說的對，這是關於把富人過去擁有的東西分配給每個人。

614
00:33:42,920 --> 00:33:47,100
But the entrepreneur's job starts even before that, which is creation.
但企業家的工作甚至在這之前就開始了，那就是創造。

615
00:33:47,100 --> 00:33:51,480
Entrepreneurship is essentially an act of creating something new from scratch, predicting
創業本質上是一種從零開始創造新事物的行為，預測

616
00:33:51,480 --> 00:33:55,500
that society will want it and then figuring out how to scale it and get it to everybody
社會會想要它，然後想辦法擴大規模並把它帶給每一個人

617
00:33:55,500 --> 00:33:58,520
in a profitable way and self-sustaining way.
以一種有利可圖且自我維持的方式。

618
00:33:58,520 --> 00:34:04,600
Let's look at this next tweet, which I thought was cryptic and also super interesting about
讓我們看看下一則推文，我認為它既神秘又非常有趣，是關於

619
00:34:04,600 --> 00:34:08,140
the kind of job or career that you might have.
你可能擁有的那種工作或職業。

620
00:34:08,140 --> 00:34:13,500
You said the internet has massively broadened the possible space of careers.
你說網路極大地拓寬了職業的可能性。

621
00:34:13,500 --> 00:34:15,820
Most people haven't figured this out yet.
大多數人還沒有想通這一點。

622
00:34:15,820 --> 00:34:20,320
The fundamental property of the internet, more than any other single thing, is it connects
網際網路最根本的特性，比任何其他單一事物都重要的，是它連接了

623
00:34:20,320 --> 00:34:23,080
every human to each other human on the planet.
地球上每一個人。

624
00:34:23,080 --> 00:34:27,020
You can now reach everyone, whether it's by emailing them personally, whether it's by
你現在可以接觸到每一個人，無論是透過親自發送電子郵件，還是透過

625
00:34:27,020 --> 00:34:30,940
broadcasting to them on Twitter, whether it's by posting something on Facebook that they
在推特上向他們廣播，或者在臉書上發布他們

626
00:34:30,940 --> 00:34:34,020
find, whether it's by putting up a website they come and access.
找到的東西，或是架設一個他們會來訪問的網站。

627
00:34:34,020 --> 00:34:36,000
It connects everyone to everyone.
它將每個人與每個人連接起來。

628
00:34:36,000 --> 00:34:39,240
So the internet is an inter-networking tool.
所以網際網路是一個互聯工具。

629
00:34:39,240 --> 00:34:40,840
It connects everybody.
它連接每個人。

630
00:34:40,840 --> 00:34:42,460
That is its superpower.
那是它的超能力。

631
00:34:42,460 --> 00:34:45,120
So you want to use that.
所以你想利用這一點。

632
00:34:45,120 --> 00:34:49,220
What that helps you figure out is that the internet means that you can find your audience
那幫助你理解的是，網際網路意味著你可以找到你的觀眾

633
00:34:49,220 --> 00:34:53,340
for your product or your talent and skill, no matter how far away they are.
為你的產品或你的才能和技巧，無論他們有多遠。

634
00:34:53,340 --> 00:34:57,780
For example, Nenad, who is illicertus, if he was in his videos pre-internet, how would
例如，Nenad，也就是 illicertus，如果他在網路出現前的影片中，他會如何

635
00:34:57,780 --> 00:34:59,300
he get the message out there?
把訊息傳播出去？

636
00:34:59,300 --> 00:35:00,300
It would just be, what would he do?
那會是什麼樣子？他會做什麼？

637
00:35:00,300 --> 00:35:04,520
He would run around where he lives in his neighborhood, showing it to people on a computer
他會在他住的社區裡到處跑，在電腦

638
00:35:04,520 --> 00:35:07,620
or a screen, or he would try to get it played at his local movie theater.
或螢幕上給人看，或者他會試圖讓它在他當地的電影院播放。

639
00:35:07,620 --> 00:35:08,620
It was impossible.
那是不可能的。

640
00:35:08,620 --> 00:35:10,940
It only works because he can put it on the internet.
這之所以可行，是因為他可以把它放在網路上。

641
00:35:10,940 --> 00:35:14,100
And then how many people in the world are really interested in it or even interested
那麼世界上有多少人真正對它感興趣，或者甚至對

642
00:35:14,100 --> 00:35:16,820
in what we're talking about are really going to absorb it, right?
我們談論的內容感興趣，真的會吸收它，對吧？

643
00:35:16,820 --> 00:35:19,540
It's going to be a very small subset of humanity.
這將會是人類中一個非常小的子集。

644
00:35:19,540 --> 00:35:21,300
The key is being able to reach them.
關鍵是能夠接觸到他們。

645
00:35:21,300 --> 00:35:26,260
So what the internet does is allows any niche obsession, which could be just the weirdest
所以網際網路所做的是，允許任何小眾的痴迷，那可能只是最奇怪的

646
00:35:26,260 --> 00:35:27,260
thing.
事情。

647
00:35:27,260 --> 00:35:30,460
It could be like people who collect snakes to like people who like to ride hot air balloons
它可以是喜歡收集蛇的人，也可以是喜歡乘坐熱氣球的人，

648
00:35:30,460 --> 00:35:33,580
to people who like to sail around the world by themselves.
也可以是喜歡獨自環遊世界航行的人。

649
00:35:33,580 --> 00:35:37,300
Just one person on a craft or someone who's obsessed with miniature cooking.
只是一個人在船上，或者某個痴迷於微型烹飪的人。

650
00:35:37,300 --> 00:35:40,560
Like there's this whole Japanese miniature cooking phenomenon or there's a show about
就像有這個日本微型烹飪的現象，或者有個節目是關於

651
00:35:40,560 --> 00:35:42,960
a woman goes into people's houses and tidies it up, right?
一個女人走進別人家裡，把它整理乾淨，對吧？

652
00:35:42,960 --> 00:35:47,220
So whatever niche obsession you have, the internet allows you to scale.
所以，無論你有什麼樣的小眾愛好，網路都能讓你擴大規模。

653
00:35:47,220 --> 00:35:50,680
Now that's not to say that what you build will be the next Facebook or reach billions
這並不是說你所建立的會成為下一個臉書，或者觸及數十億

654
00:35:50,680 --> 00:35:51,680
of users.
用戶。

655
00:35:51,680 --> 00:35:56,460
But if you just want to reach 50,000 passionate people like you, there's an audience out there
但如果你只想接觸到五萬個像你一樣熱情的人，外面就有

656
00:35:56,460 --> 00:35:57,460
for you.
你的觀眾。

657
00:35:57,460 --> 00:36:00,860
The beauty of this is that we have 7 billion beings on this planet.
這個的美妙之處在於，我們這個星球上有 70 億生物。

658
00:36:00,860 --> 00:36:03,820
The commonetorics of human DNA are incredible.
人類 DNA 的組合學是不可思議的。

659
00:36:03,820 --> 00:36:05,160
Everyone is completely different.
每個人都是完全不同的。

660
00:36:05,160 --> 00:36:08,860
You'll never meet any two people who are even vaguely similar to each other that can substitute
你永遠不會遇到任何兩個甚至稍微相似到可以互相替代的人。

661
00:36:08,860 --> 00:36:09,860
for each other.
互相。

662
00:36:09,860 --> 00:36:13,700
You can say, well, maybe just left my life so I can have this other person come in and
你可以說，好吧，也許只是離開了我的生活，所以我可以讓這個人進來，

663
00:36:13,700 --> 00:36:18,220
he's just like maybe and I get the same feelings, the same responses and the same ideas.
他就像也許一樣，我得到同樣的感覺、同樣的回應和同樣的想法。

664
00:36:18,220 --> 00:36:20,620
No, there are no substitutes for people.
不，人是無法替代的。

665
00:36:20,620 --> 00:36:22,380
People are completely unique.
人們是完全獨特的。

666
00:36:22,380 --> 00:36:27,240
So given that each person has different skill sets, different interests, different obsessions,
所以，鑑於每個人都有不同的技能、不同的興趣、不同的痴迷，

667
00:36:27,240 --> 00:36:30,800
and it's that diversity that becomes a creative superpower.
正是那種多樣性成為了一種創造性的超能力。

668
00:36:30,800 --> 00:36:35,360
So each person can be creatively superb at their own unique thing.
所以每個人都可以在自己獨特的事情上表現出卓越的創造力。

669
00:36:35,360 --> 00:36:39,600
But before that didn't matter because if you were living a little fishing village in Italy,
但以前那不重要，因為如果你住在義大利的一個小漁村，

670
00:36:39,600 --> 00:36:43,500
but your fishing village didn't necessarily need your completely unique skill and you
但你的漁村不一定需要你那完全獨特的技能，

671
00:36:43,500 --> 00:36:46,740
had to conform to just the few jobs that were available.
而你必須屈就於僅有的幾個工作。

672
00:36:46,740 --> 00:36:49,740
But now today you can be completely unique.
但今天你可以完全獨特。

673
00:36:49,740 --> 00:37:00,820
You can go out on the internet and you can find your audience and you can build a business and create a product and build wealth and make people happy just uniquely expressing yourself through the internet.
你可以上網，找到你的觀眾，建立一個企業，創造一個產品，建立財富，讓人們快樂，就只憑著獨特地透過網路表達自己。

676
00:37:00,820 --> 00:37:02,660
Space of careers has been so broadened.
職業的空間已經如此寬廣。

677
00:37:02,660 --> 00:37:05,980
Esports players, people making millions of dollars playing Fortnite, people creating
電競選手，靠玩 Fortnite 賺取數百萬美元的人，創造

678
00:37:05,980 --> 00:37:11,420
videos and uploading them, YouTube broadcasters, bloggers, a podcasters, Joe Rogan, I read
影片並上傳的人，YouTube 播主，部落客，播客主，Joe Rogan，我讀到

679
00:37:11,420 --> 00:37:14,580
true or false, I don't know, but I read that he's going to make about a hundred million
真假我不知道，但我讀到他一年大概會賺一億

680
00:37:14,580 --> 00:37:18,380
dollars a year on his podcast and he's had two billion downloads.
美元的播客收入，而且他的下載量已達二十億。

681
00:37:18,380 --> 00:37:21,660
Even PewDiePie, this is a hilarious tweet that I retweeted the other day.
即使是 PewDiePie，這是我前幾天轉發的一則有趣的推文。

682
00:37:21,660 --> 00:37:24,420
PewDiePie is the number one trusted name in news.
PewDiePie 是新聞界最受信任的第一品牌。

683
00:37:24,420 --> 00:37:29,340
This is a kid I think in Sweden and he's got three times the distribution of the top cable
我認為這是一個在瑞典的孩子，他的發行量是頂級有線

684
00:37:29,340 --> 00:37:31,260
news networks just on his news channel.
新聞網的三倍，僅僅在他的新聞頻道上。

685
00:37:31,260 --> 00:37:33,460
It's not even on his entertainment channel.
甚至不是在他的娛樂頻道上。

686
00:37:33,460 --> 00:37:39,820
The internet enables any niche interest as long as you're the best at it to scale out.
網際網路讓任何小眾的興趣，只要你是最擅長的，都能擴大規模。

687
00:37:39,820 --> 00:37:44,740
And the great news is because every human is different, everyone is the best at something
好消息是，因為每個人都不同，每個人在某方面都是最好的，

688
00:37:44,740 --> 00:37:45,740
being themselves.
做自己。

689
00:37:45,740 --> 00:37:50,420
Another tweet I have that is worth weaving in but didn't go into this tweet storm was
我還有另一則值得加入但未進入這次推文風暴的推文，是

690
00:37:50,420 --> 00:37:51,420
a very simple one.
一個非常簡單的。

691
00:37:51,420 --> 00:37:54,940
I like things that can compress them down because they're easy to remember and easy
我喜歡能把它們壓縮下來的東西，因為它們容易記，也容易

692
00:37:54,940 --> 00:37:56,100
to hook onto.
掛鉤。

693
00:37:56,100 --> 00:38:00,060
But that one was escape competition through authenticity.
但那句是「透過真實性逃脫競爭」。

694
00:38:00,060 --> 00:38:03,900
So when you're competing with people, it's because you're copying them.
所以當你與人競爭時，那是因為你在模仿他們。

695
00:38:03,900 --> 00:38:05,820
It's because you're trying to do the same thing.
這是因為你試圖做同樣的事情。

696
00:38:05,820 --> 00:38:07,340
But every human is different.
但每個人都是不同的。

697
00:38:07,340 --> 00:38:08,340
Don't copy.
不要抄襲。

698
00:38:08,340 --> 00:38:11,820
I know we're memetic creatures and Rene Girard has a whole memesis theory, but it's much
我知道我們是模因生物，而且 Rene Girard 有一套完整的模仿理論，但它遠比

699
00:38:11,820 --> 00:38:12,940
easier than that.
那簡單。

700
00:38:12,940 --> 00:38:15,860
Don't imitate, don't copy, just do your own thing.
不要模仿，不要抄襲，做你自己的事就好。

701
00:38:15,860 --> 00:38:18,360
No one can compete with you on being you.
沒有人能與你競爭「做你自己」這件事。

702
00:38:18,360 --> 00:38:19,360
It's that simple.
就這麼簡單。

703
00:38:19,360 --> 00:38:24,100
And so the more authentic you are to who you are and what you love to do, the less competition
所以你越忠於自己，越忠於你熱愛做的事，你的競爭就

704
00:38:24,100 --> 00:38:25,100
you're going to have.
越少。

705
00:38:25,100 --> 00:38:29,580
So you can escape competition through authenticity when you realize that no one can compete with
所以當你意識到沒有人能與你競爭「做你自己」時，你就可以透過真實性逃脫競爭。

706
00:38:29,580 --> 00:38:30,860
you on being you.
在你成為你的方面。

707
00:38:30,860 --> 00:38:34,780
And normally that would have been useless advice pre-internet, post-internet.
通常在網路出現前，那會是無用的建議，但在網路出現後。

708
00:38:34,780 --> 00:38:36,780
You can turn that into a career.
你可以把它變成一個事業。

709
00:38:36,780 --> 00:38:41,060
Talk a little bit about what industries you should think about working in, what kind of
談談你應該考慮在哪些行業工作，做哪種

710
00:38:41,060 --> 00:38:44,420
job you should have and who you might want to work with.
工作，以及你可能想和誰合作。

711
00:38:44,420 --> 00:38:50,100
So you said one should pick an industry where you can play long term games with long term
所以你說應該選擇一個你可以和長期的人玩長期遊戲的

712
00:38:50,100 --> 00:38:51,100
people.
行業。

713
00:38:51,100 --> 00:38:52,100
Why?
為什麼？

714
00:38:52,100 --> 00:38:57,620
Yeah, this is an insight into what makes Silicon Valley work and what makes high trust societies
是的，這是一個關於矽谷運作模式以及高信任度社會運作模式的見解。

715
00:38:57,620 --> 00:38:58,620
work.
工作。

716
00:38:58,620 --> 00:39:04,060
So basically all the benefits in life come from compound interest, whether it's in relationships
所以基本上，生活中所有的好處都來自複利，無論是在關係、

717
00:39:04,060 --> 00:39:06,540
or making money or in learning.
賺錢還是學習上。

718
00:39:06,540 --> 00:39:10,740
So compound interest is a marvelous force where it's like, you start out with one X what you
所以複利是一個神奇的力量，就像是你從你擁有的

719
00:39:10,740 --> 00:39:16,420
have and then if you increase 20% a year for 30 years, it's not that you got 30 years times
東西的一倍開始，然後如果你每年增加 20%，持續 30 年，那不是說你得到 30 年乘以

720
00:39:16,420 --> 00:39:19,020
20% added on, it was compounding.
20% 的增加，而是複利。

721
00:39:19,020 --> 00:39:22,940
So it just grew and grew and grew until you suddenly got a massive amount of whatever
所以它就不斷地增長，直到你突然得到大量的

722
00:39:22,940 --> 00:39:26,500
it is, whether it's goodwill or love or relationships or money.
東西，無論是善意、愛、關係還是金錢。

723
00:39:26,500 --> 00:39:28,700
So I think compound interest is very important for us.
所以我認為複利對我們來說非常重要。

724
00:39:28,700 --> 00:39:32,420
You have to be able to play a long term game and long term games are good not just for
你必須能夠玩長期的遊戲，而長期的遊戲不只對

725
00:39:32,420 --> 00:39:34,560
compound interest, they're also good for trust.
複利有利，對信任也很有利。

726
00:39:34,560 --> 00:39:38,720
If you look at Prisoner's Dilemma type games, the solution to Prisoner's Dilemma is tit
如果你看看囚徒困境這類遊戲，囚徒困境的解法是

727
00:39:38,720 --> 00:39:42,600
for tat, which is I'm just going to do to you what you did last time to me with some
以牙還牙，也就是我會對你做你上次對我做的事，但帶有一些

728
00:39:42,600 --> 00:39:45,120
forgiveness in case there was a mistake made.
寬容，以防萬一有錯誤發生。

729
00:39:45,120 --> 00:39:47,140
But that only works in an iterated Prisoner's Dilemma.
但那只在重複的囚徒困境中有效。

730
00:39:47,140 --> 00:39:49,560
In other words, we play the game multiple times.
換句話說，我們玩這個遊戲很多次。

731
00:39:49,560 --> 00:39:53,380
So if you're in a situation, like for example, you're in Silicon Valley where people are doing
所以如果你處於這樣的情況，例如，你在矽谷，人們互相

732
00:39:53,380 --> 00:39:57,840
business with each other and they know each other, they trust each other, then they do
做生意，他們彼此認識，他們互相信任，那麼他們就會

733
00:39:57,840 --> 00:40:01,660
right by each other because they know this person will be around for the next game.
互相做好事，因為他們知道這個人下一局還會在。

734
00:40:01,660 --> 00:40:05,100
Now, of course, that doesn't always work because you can make so much money in one move in
當然，這不一定總是有效，因為你可以在矽谷

735
00:40:05,100 --> 00:40:06,100
Silicon Valley.
的一次行動中賺到很多錢。

736
00:40:06,100 --> 00:40:09,180
Sometimes people betray each other because they're just like, I'm going to get rich enough
有時候人們會互相背叛，因為他們就像是：「我要靠這個致富到

737
00:40:09,180 --> 00:40:10,660
off this that I don't care.
可以不在乎的程度。」

738
00:40:10,660 --> 00:40:13,260
So there can be exceptions to all these circumstances.
所以所有這些情況都可能有例外。

739
00:40:13,260 --> 00:40:17,540
But essentially, if you want to be successful, you have to work with other people and you
但基本上，如果你想成功，你必須和別人合作，而且你

740
00:40:17,540 --> 00:40:23,020
have to figure out who can you trust and who can you trust over a long, long period of time
必須找出你可以信任誰，以及你可以長期信任誰，

741
00:40:23,020 --> 00:40:27,340
that you can just keep playing the game with them so that compound interest and high trust
這樣你才能一直和他們玩下去，讓複利和高度的信任

742
00:40:27,340 --> 00:40:31,500
will make it easier to play the game and will let you collect the major rewards, which are
讓遊戲更容易進行，並讓你獲得主要的獎勵，那通常

743
00:40:31,500 --> 00:40:33,220
usually at the end of the cycle.
是在週期的末端。

744
00:40:33,220 --> 00:40:37,680
So for example, Warren Buffett has done really well as an investor in the US stock market.
例如，華倫·巴菲特在美國股市中作為投資者表現非常出色。

745
00:40:37,680 --> 00:40:41,680
But the biggest reason he could do that was because the US stock market has been stable
但他之所以能做到這一點，最大的原因是美國股市一直很穩定，

746
00:40:41,680 --> 00:40:47,060
and around and didn't get, for example, seized by the government during a bad administration
並且一直存在，沒有在一個糟糕的政府期間被政府沒收，

747
00:40:47,060 --> 00:40:51,560
or the US didn't plunge into some war, the underlying platform didn't get destroyed.
或者美國沒有陷入某場戰爭，基礎平台沒有被摧毀。

748
00:40:51,560 --> 00:40:56,480
So in his case, he was playing a long term game and the trust came from the US stock
所以在他這個例子中，他玩的是長期遊戲，而信任來自於美國股票

749
00:40:56,480 --> 00:40:57,660
market stability.
市場的穩定性。

750
00:40:57,660 --> 00:41:01,580
In Silicon Valley, the trust comes from the network of people in the small geographic
在矽谷，信任來自於那個小地理區域的人脈網絡，

751
00:41:01,580 --> 00:41:05,220
area that you figure out over time who you can work with and who you can't.
你隨著時間會弄清楚你可以和誰合作，不能和誰合作。

752
00:41:05,220 --> 00:41:09,140
If you keep switching locations, you keep switching groups, let's say you started out
如果你不斷更換地點，不斷更換群體，假設你一開始

753
00:41:09,140 --> 00:41:13,300
in the woodworking industry and you built up a network there and you're working hard,
在木工業，在那裡建立了一個人脈網絡，你努力工作，

754
00:41:13,300 --> 00:41:15,420
you're trying to build a product in the woodworking industry.
你試圖在木工業中建立一個產品。

755
00:41:15,420 --> 00:41:19,140
And then suddenly another industry comes along that's adjacent but different, but you don't
然後突然出現了另一個行業，它相鄰但不同，但你

756
00:41:19,140 --> 00:41:22,120
really know anybody in it and you want to dive in and make money there.
在裡面真的誰都不認識，但你想要投身其中賺錢。

757
00:41:22,120 --> 00:41:25,540
If you keep hopping from industry to know actually I need to open a line of electric
如果你不斷地從一個行業跳到另一個，突然發現你需要開一條電動

758
00:41:25,540 --> 00:41:28,160
car stations for electric car refueling.
汽車充電站。

759
00:41:28,160 --> 00:41:29,160
That might make sense.
那或許有道理。

760
00:41:29,160 --> 00:41:31,060
It might be the best opportunity.
那可能是最好的機會。

761
00:41:31,060 --> 00:41:35,500
But every time you reset, every time you wander out of where you built your network, you're
但每一次你重置，每一次你偏離你建立網絡的地方，你

762
00:41:35,500 --> 00:41:37,240
going to be started from scratch.
都將從頭開始。

763
00:41:37,240 --> 00:41:38,800
You're not going to know who to trust.
你將不知道該信任誰。

764
00:41:38,800 --> 00:41:40,180
They're not going to trust you.
他們不會信任你。

765
00:41:40,180 --> 00:41:42,900
There are also industries in which people are transient by definition.
還有一些行業，根據定義，人們是短暫的。

766
00:41:42,900 --> 00:41:45,940
They're always coming in and going out.
他們總是來來去去。

767
00:41:45,940 --> 00:41:47,420
Politics is an example of that, right?
政治就是一個例子，對吧？

768
00:41:47,420 --> 00:41:49,660
In politics, new people are being elected.
在政治界，新人不斷被選出。

769
00:41:49,660 --> 00:41:53,820
You see in politics that when you have a lot of old timers like the Senate, people have
你在政治中會看到，當有很多像參議院那樣的老手，那些人

770
00:41:53,820 --> 00:41:56,060
been around for a long time and they've been career politicians.
已經待很久了，而且他們是職業政治家。

771
00:41:56,060 --> 00:42:00,300
Yeah, there's a lot of downside to career politicians like corruption, but an upside
是的，職業政治家有很多缺點，像是腐敗，但一個優點

772
00:42:00,300 --> 00:42:03,700
is they actually get deals done with each other because they know the other person is
是他們實際上能夠彼此達成協議，因為他們知道對方

773
00:42:03,700 --> 00:42:06,820
going to be in the same position 10 years from now and they're going to keep dealing
十年後還會在同一個位置上，而且他們會繼續與

774
00:42:06,820 --> 00:42:07,820
with them.
他們打交道。

775
00:42:07,820 --> 00:42:09,300
So they might as well learn how to cooperate.
所以他們不妨學習如何合作。

776
00:42:09,300 --> 00:42:13,420
Whereas every time you get like a new incoming freshman class in the House of Representatives,
然而，每當眾議院有新的一批新生代議員進來，

777
00:42:13,420 --> 00:42:17,340
which turns over every two years, the big wave election, nothing gets done because there's
每兩年換屆一次，大選浪潮來襲，什麼事都做不成，因為有

778
00:42:17,340 --> 00:42:19,500
a lot of fighting because I just got here.
很多鬥爭，因為我剛到這裡。

779
00:42:19,500 --> 00:42:20,500
I don't know you.
我不認識你。

780
00:42:20,500 --> 00:42:21,800
I don't know if you're going to be around.
我不知道你是否會在這裡待下去。

781
00:42:21,800 --> 00:42:25,440
Why should I work with you rather than just try and do whatever I think is right?
我為什麼要和你合作，而不是就試著做我認為對的事？

782
00:42:25,440 --> 00:42:30,760
So it's important to pick an industry where you can play long term games and with long
所以選擇一個你能玩長期遊戲，並且和長期的人

783
00:42:30,760 --> 00:42:32,080
term people.
一起玩的行業是很重要的。

784
00:42:32,080 --> 00:42:35,700
So those people have to signal that they're going to be around for a long time, that they're
所以那些人必須發出信號，表示他們會待很久，他們是

785
00:42:35,700 --> 00:42:39,940
ethical and their ethics are visible to their actions.
有道德的，而且他們的道德觀可以從他們的行動中看出來。

786
00:42:39,940 --> 00:42:45,120
In a long term game, it seems that everybody is making each other rich.
在長期賽局中，似乎每個人都在讓彼此致富。

787
00:42:45,120 --> 00:42:49,860
And in a short term game, it seems like everybody is making themselves rich.
而在短期賽局中，似乎每個人都在讓自己致富。

788
00:42:49,860 --> 00:42:51,820
I think that is a brilliant formulation.
我認為那是一個非常精闢的闡述。

789
00:42:51,820 --> 00:42:54,940
Yeah, in a long term game, it's positive sum.
是的，在長期賽局中，它是正和的。

790
00:42:54,940 --> 00:42:56,780
We're all baking the pie together.
我們都在一起把餅做大。

791
00:42:56,780 --> 00:42:58,820
We're trying to make it as big as possible.
我們試圖讓它盡可能地大。

792
00:42:58,820 --> 00:43:01,420
In a short term game, we're cutting up the pie.
在短期賽局中，我們在分餅。

793
00:43:01,420 --> 00:43:03,340
Now this is not to excuse the socialists, right?
這不是為了替社會主義者辯解，對吧？

794
00:43:03,340 --> 00:43:06,300
The socialists are the people who are not involved in baking the pie, who show up at
社會主義者是那些沒有參與做餅，卻在

795
00:43:06,300 --> 00:43:08,580
the end and say, I want a slice or I want the whole pie.
最後出現，說：「我想要一塊」或「我想要整個餅」的人。

796
00:43:08,580 --> 00:43:09,780
They show up with the guns.
他們帶著槍出現。

797
00:43:09,780 --> 00:43:11,900
But a good leader doesn't take credit.
但一個好的領導者不會邀功。

798
00:43:11,900 --> 00:43:16,380
A good leader tries to inspire people so that the team gets the job done and then things
一個好的領導者會試圖激勵人們，讓團隊完成工作，然後事情

799
00:43:16,380 --> 00:43:21,340
get divided up according to fairness and who contributed how much or as close to as possible
會根據公平性、誰貢獻多少，或者盡可能接近地

800
00:43:21,340 --> 00:43:25,660
and took a risk as opposed to just whoever has the longest knife, the sharpest knives
分配，並且承擔了風險，而不是只看誰的刀最長、最鋒利，

801
00:43:25,660 --> 00:43:26,660
at the end.
在最後。

802
00:43:26,660 --> 00:43:33,820
So these next two tweets are play iterated games, all returns in life, whether in wealth,
所以接下來這兩則推文是：玩重複的遊戲，人生中所有的回報，無論是財富、

803
00:43:33,820 --> 00:43:37,100
relationships or knowledge come from compound interest.
關係或知識，都來自於複利。

804
00:43:37,100 --> 00:43:40,340
Yeah, when you've been doing business with somebody, you've been friends with somebody
是的，當你和某人做生意，和某人當朋友

805
00:43:40,340 --> 00:43:44,620
for 10 years, 20 years, 30 years, it just gets better and better because you trust them
十年、二十年、三十年，只會越來越好，因為你信任他們，

806
00:43:44,620 --> 00:43:45,620
so easy.
所以很輕鬆。

807
00:43:45,620 --> 00:43:48,260
If the friction goes down, you can do bigger and bigger things together.
如果摩擦力下降，你們可以一起做越來越大的事。

808
00:43:48,260 --> 00:43:52,860
For example, the simplest one is getting married to someone, having kids and raising children.
例如，最簡單的一個是和某人結婚、生子、養育子女。

809
00:43:52,860 --> 00:43:54,420
That's compound interest, right?
那是複利，對吧？

810
00:43:54,420 --> 00:43:55,660
Investing in those relationships.
投資那些關係。

811
00:43:55,660 --> 00:43:59,780
Those relationships end up being invaluable compared to more casual relationships.
那些關係最終會比更隨意的關係變得無價。

812
00:43:59,780 --> 00:44:01,340
It's true in health and fitness.
這在健康和健身方面也是如此。

813
00:44:01,340 --> 00:44:03,740
The fitter you are, the easier it is to stay fit.
你越健康，就越容易保持健康。

814
00:44:03,740 --> 00:44:07,300
Whereas the more you deteriorate your body, the harder it is to come back and claw your
然而，你越是讓你的身體惡化，要恢復並爬

815
00:44:07,300 --> 00:44:08,300
way back to a baseline.
回基準線就越困難。

816
00:44:08,300 --> 00:44:10,300
It requires heroic acts.
它需要英雄般的行為。

817
00:44:10,300 --> 00:44:15,260
Regarding compound interest, I think I saw you retweet something a while back.
關於複利，我記得不久前看到你轉發了一則東西。

818
00:44:15,260 --> 00:44:17,700
Maybe it was from Ed Lattimore.
也許是來自 Ed Lattimore。

819
00:44:17,700 --> 00:44:24,580
It went something along the lines of get some traction, get purchase and don't lose it.
它的大意是，獲得一些牽引力，站穩腳跟，然後不要失去它。

820
00:44:24,580 --> 00:44:29,100
So the idea was to gain some initial traction and never fall back.
所以這個想法是，獲得一些初始的動力，然後永不後退。

821
00:44:29,100 --> 00:44:31,260
Just keep ratcheting up and up.
就一直不斷地向上提升。

822
00:44:31,260 --> 00:44:33,100
I don't remember it exactly, but I think that was right.
我記不太清楚了，但我想那是對的。

823
00:44:33,100 --> 00:44:35,220
Yeah, I was like, get traction and don't let go.
是的，我當時的想法是，抓住機會就不要放手。

824
00:44:35,220 --> 00:44:36,220
It was a good one.
那是個不錯的。

825
00:44:36,220 --> 00:44:37,220
Yeah.
是的。

826
00:44:37,220 --> 00:44:40,620
In terms of pick people to work with that have high intelligence, high energy and high
在選擇合作夥伴方面，他們需要有高智商、高能量和高

827
00:44:40,620 --> 00:44:44,940
integrity, I find that's the three-part checklist that you cannot compromise on.
誠信，我發現這是一個你不能妥協的三部分清單。

828
00:44:44,940 --> 00:44:48,500
You need someone who's smart or they're heading in the wrong direction and you're not going
你需要聰明的人，否則他們會走向錯誤的方向，你也不會

829
00:44:48,500 --> 00:44:50,100
to end up in the right place.
到達正確的地方。

830
00:44:50,100 --> 00:44:53,740
You need someone high energy because the world is full of smart, lazy people.
你需要一個精力充沛的人，因為這個世界充滿了聰明的懶人。

831
00:44:53,740 --> 00:44:57,260
We all know people in our lives are really smart, but can't get out of bed or lift a
我們都知道生活中有些人真的很聰明，但卻起不來床或不肯

832
00:44:57,260 --> 00:44:58,260
finger.
動一根手指頭。

833
00:44:58,260 --> 00:45:00,620
We also know people who are very high energy, but not that smart.
我們也認識那些精力充沛，但不太聰明的人。

834
00:45:00,620 --> 00:45:02,860
So they work hard, but they're running in the wrong direction.
所以他們努力工作，但卻跑錯了方向。

835
00:45:02,860 --> 00:45:04,500
Smart, it's not a pejorative.
聰明，這不是貶義詞。

836
00:45:04,500 --> 00:45:08,340
It's not meant to be like someone's smart, someone else is stupid, but it's more that
這不是說某人聰明，某人愚蠢，而是指

837
00:45:08,340 --> 00:45:10,060
everyone's smart at different things.
每個人在不同的事情上都很聰明。

838
00:45:10,060 --> 00:45:13,540
So depending on what you want to do well, you have to find someone who's smart at that
所以，取決於你想把什麼做好，你必須找到一個在那方面聰明的人。

839
00:45:13,540 --> 00:45:14,540
thing.
事情。

840
00:45:14,540 --> 00:45:18,220
And then energy, a lot of times people are unmotivated for a specific thing, but they're
然後是能量，很多時候人們對某件事沒有動力，但他們

841
00:45:18,220 --> 00:45:19,540
not motivated for other things.
對其他事情也沒有動力。

842
00:45:19,540 --> 00:45:24,900
So for example, someone might be really unmotivated to go to a job and sit in an office, but they
例如，某人可能對上班、坐在辦公室裡感到非常沒有動力，但他們

843
00:45:24,900 --> 00:45:26,820
might be really motivated to go paint, right?
可能對畫畫非常有動力，對吧？

844
00:45:26,820 --> 00:45:28,540
Well, in that case, they should be a painter.
嗯，在這種情況下，他們應該成為一個畫家。

845
00:45:28,540 --> 00:45:31,220
They should be putting art up on the internet, trying to figure out how to build a career
他們應該把藝術品放到網路上，試圖找出如何建立一個

846
00:45:31,220 --> 00:45:35,740
out of that rather than wearing a collar around their neck and going to a dreary job.
以此為生的事業，而不是戴著項圈去做一份枯燥的工作。

847
00:45:35,740 --> 00:45:39,340
And then high integrity is the most important because otherwise, if you've got the other
然後，高誠信是最重要的，因為否則，如果你擁有另外

848
00:45:39,340 --> 00:45:43,380
two, what you have is you have a smart and hardworking crook who's eventually going to
兩個特質，你得到的將是一個聰明又勤奮的騙子，他最終會

849
00:45:43,380 --> 00:45:44,380
cheat you.
欺騙你。

850
00:45:44,380 --> 00:45:46,460
So you have to figure out the person's high integrity.
所以你必須弄清楚這個人的誠信度。

851
00:45:46,460 --> 00:45:50,660
As we talked about, the way you do that is through signals and signals is what they do,
就像我們談到的，你這麼做的方式是透過信號，而信號是他們所做的，

852
00:45:50,660 --> 00:45:51,660
not what they say.
而不是他們所說的。

853
00:45:1,660 --> 00:45:55,640
It's all the nonverbal stuff that people do when they think nobody's looking.
這都是人們在以為沒人看的時候做的非語言行為。

854
00:45:55,640 --> 00:46:01,340
With respect to the energy, there was this interesting thing from Sam Altman a while
關於能量，不久前 Sam Altman 說過一件有趣的事，

855
00:46:01,340 --> 00:46:05,580
back where he was talking about delegation and he was saying one of the important things
當時他在談論授權，他說其中一件重要的事

856
00:46:05,580 --> 00:46:10,620
for delegation is delegate to people who are actually good at the thing that you want them
是將工作委派給那些真正擅長你希望他們做的事的人。

857
00:46:10,620 --> 00:46:11,620
to do.
去做。

858
00:46:11,620 --> 00:46:16,780
It's the most obvious thing, but it seems like you want to partner with people who are
這是最明顯的事情，但似乎你想和那些

859
00:46:16,780 --> 00:46:20,180
naturally going to do the things that you want them to do.
天生就會做你希望他們做的事的人合作。

860
00:46:20,180 --> 00:46:25,100
Yeah, I almost won't start a company or hire a person or work with somebody if I just don't
是的，如果我只是覺得他們不投入我希望他們做的事，我幾乎不會創立公司、僱用或與人合作。

861
00:46:25,100 --> 00:46:28,020
think they're into what I want them to do.
我想他們會做的。

862
00:46:28,020 --> 00:46:30,500
When I was younger, I used to try and talk people into things.
我年輕的時候，我會試圖說服別人做一些事。

863
00:46:30,500 --> 00:46:34,200
I was this idea that you can sell someone into doing something, but you can't.
我曾經認為你可以說服別人做某件事，但你做不到。

864
00:46:34,200 --> 00:46:35,540
You can't keep them motivated.
你無法讓他們保持動力。

865
00:46:35,540 --> 00:46:37,260
You can get them inspired initially.
你可以一開始激勵他們。

866
00:46:37,260 --> 00:46:40,300
It might work if you're a king like Henry V and you're trying to get them to just charge
如果你是像亨利五世那樣的國王，試圖讓他們衝鋒陷陣，

867
00:46:40,300 --> 00:46:42,320
into battle and then they'll figure it out.
然後他們會自己想辦法，那或許行得通。

868
00:46:42,320 --> 00:46:45,540
But if you're trying to keep someone motivated for the long term, that motivation has to
但如果你試圖讓某人長期保持動力，那個動力必須

869
00:46:45,540 --> 00:46:46,720
come intrinsically.
是內在的。

870
00:46:46,720 --> 00:46:50,700
You can't just create it nor can you be the crutch for them if they don't have that intrinsic
你無法創造它，也無法成為他們的支柱，如果他們沒有那種內在的

871
00:46:50,700 --> 00:46:51,700
motivation.
動力。

872
00:46:51,700 --> 00:46:55,060
You have to make sure people actually are high energy and want to do what you want them to
你必須確保人們確實精力充沛，並想做你希望他們做的事，

873
00:46:55,060 --> 00:46:57,060
do or what you want to work with them.
或者你想和他們合作的事。

874
00:46:57,060 --> 00:46:59,220
Reading signals is very, very important.
閱讀信號非常、非常重要。

875
00:46:59,220 --> 00:47:02,940
Signals are what people do despite what they say.
信號是人們所做的，儘管他們所說的。

876
00:47:02,940 --> 00:47:05,560
It's important to pay attention to subtle signals.
注意細微的信號很重要。

877
00:47:05,560 --> 00:47:06,860
We all know this socially.
我們在社交上都知道這一點。

878
00:47:06,860 --> 00:47:10,580
If someone treats a waiter or waitress in a restaurant really badly, then it's only
如果某人在餐廳對服務生很差，那麼

879
00:47:10,580 --> 00:47:12,760
a matter of time until they treat you badly.
他們對你很差也只是時間問題。

880
00:47:12,760 --> 00:47:17,660
If somebody screws over an enemy and is vindictive towards them, well, it's only a matter of
如果某人陷害敵人並對他們懷恨在心，那麼，這只是

881
00:47:17,660 --> 00:47:21,380
time before they redefine you from friend to enemy and you feel their wrath.
時間問題，他們就會把你從朋友重新定義為敵人，然後你就會感受到他們的憤怒。

882
00:47:21,380 --> 00:47:27,900
Angry, outraged, vindictive, short term thinking people are essentially that way in many interactions
憤怒、暴怒、報復心強、短視近利的人，在他們生活中的許多互動中，基本上都是那樣的。

883
00:47:27,900 --> 00:47:28,900
in their life.
在他們的生活中。

884
00:47:28,900 --> 00:47:29,900
People are oddly consistent.
人們出奇地一致。

885
00:47:29,900 --> 00:47:31,900
It's one of the things you learn about them.
這是你從他們身上學到的事情之一。

886
00:47:31,900 --> 00:47:33,880
So you want to find long term people.
所以你想找長期的人。

887
00:47:33,880 --> 00:47:36,660
You want to find people who seem irrationally ethical.
你想找那種看起來非理性地有道德的人。

888
00:47:36,660 --> 00:47:41,700
For example, I had one friend of mine whose company I invested in and the company failed
例如，我有一個朋友的公司，我投資了，但公司失敗了，

889
00:47:41,700 --> 00:47:45,700
and he could have wiped out all the investors, but he kept putting more and more personal
他本可以讓所有投資者血本無歸，但他不斷地投入越來越多的個人

890
00:47:45,700 --> 00:47:49,820
money in through three different pivots he put personal money in until the company finally
資金，經歷了三次轉型，他都投入了個人資金，直到公司最終

891
00:47:49,820 --> 00:47:53,420
succeeded and in the process he never wiped out the investors.
成功，而在這個過程中，他從未讓投資者血本無歸。

892
00:47:53,420 --> 00:47:55,380
And I was always grateful to him for that.
我一直很感謝他。

893
00:47:55,380 --> 00:47:58,820
I said like, wow, that's amazing that you are so good to your investors.
我說，哇，你對你的投資人這麼好，真是太神奇了。

894
00:47:58,820 --> 00:47:59,940
You didn't wipe them out.
你沒有讓他們血本無歸。

895
00:47:59,940 --> 00:48:01,300
And he got offended by that.
他對此感到被冒犯。

896
00:48:01,300 --> 00:48:03,340
He said, I didn't do it for you.
他說，我不是為你做的。

897
00:48:03,340 --> 00:48:04,340
I didn't do it for my investors.
我不是為我的投資者做的。

898
00:48:04,340 --> 00:48:05,600
I did it for me.
我是為我自己做的。

899
00:48:05,600 --> 00:48:07,320
It's my own self-esteem.
這是我的自尊。

900
00:48:07,320 --> 00:48:08,580
It's what I care about.
這是我在乎的。

901
00:48:08,580 --> 00:48:09,900
That's how I live my life.
我就是這樣過我的生活的。

902
00:48:09,900 --> 00:48:12,020
That's the kind of person you want to work with.
這就是你想合作的那種人。

903
00:48:12,020 --> 00:48:13,820
Another quote that I like, I have a tweet on this.
另一句我喜歡的名言，我有一則關於這個的推文。

904
00:48:13,820 --> 00:48:15,100
I think I read this somewhere else recently.
我想我最近在別的地方讀到這個。

905
00:48:15,100 --> 00:48:19,300
He said, I'm not taking credit for this, but I modified it a little bit, which is that self-esteem
他說，我不是要邀功，但我稍微修改了一下，那就是自尊

906
00:48:19,300 --> 00:48:22,140
is a reputation that you have with yourself.
是你與自己之間的聲譽。

907
00:48:22,140 --> 00:48:23,460
You'll always know.
你總是會知道。

908
00:48:23,460 --> 00:48:29,660
So good people, moral people, ethical people, easy to work with people, reliable people
所以好人、有道德的人、有倫理的人、容易合作的人、可靠的人，

909
00:48:29,660 --> 00:48:34,260
tend to have very high self-esteem because they have very good reputation with themselves
往往有很高的自尊，因為他們在自己心中有很好的聲譽，

910
00:48:34,260 --> 00:48:35,620
and they understand that.
而且他們理解這一點。

911
00:48:35,620 --> 00:48:36,620
It's not ego.
這不是自負。

912
00:48:36,620 --> 00:48:40,740
Self-esteem and ego are different things because ego can be undeserved, but self-esteem, at
自尊和自負是不同的東西，因為自負可以是應得的，但自尊，至少

913
00:48:40,740 --> 00:48:45,460
least you feel like you lived up to your own internal moral code of ethics.
你感覺自己達到了自己內心的道德準則。

914
00:48:45,460 --> 00:48:49,620
And so it's very hard to work with people who end up being low integrity and it's hard
所以很難和那些最終誠信度低的人合作，也很難

915
00:48:49,620 --> 00:48:52,060
to figure out who's high integrity and low integrity.
弄清楚誰的誠信度高，誰的誠信度低。

916
00:48:52,060 --> 00:48:56,420
Generally, the more someone is saying that they're moral and ethical and high integrity,
一般來說，越是說自己有道德、有倫理、高誠信的人，

917
00:48:56,420 --> 00:48:58,340
the less likely they are to be that way.
他們就越不可能是那樣。

918
00:48:58,340 --> 00:49:00,420
It's very much like status signaling.
這很像地位信號。

919
00:49:00,420 --> 00:49:05,220
If you overtly bid for status, if you overtly talk about being high status, that is a low
如果你公然爭奪地位，如果你公然談論自己地位高，那是一種低

920
00:49:05,220 --> 00:49:06,460
status move.
地位的舉動。

921
00:49:06,460 --> 00:49:11,260
If you openly talk about how honest and reliable and trustworthy you are, you're probably not
如果你公開談論自己有多誠實、可靠、值得信賴，那你可能

922
00:49:11,260 --> 00:49:12,540
that honest and trustworthy.
並非那麼誠實可信。

923
00:49:12,540 --> 00:49:14,740
That is a characteristic of con men.
那是騙子的特徵。

924
00:49:14,740 --> 00:49:20,940
So yeah, pick an industry in which you can play long-term games with long-term people.
所以，是的，選擇一個你可以和長期的人玩長期遊戲的行業。

925
00:49:20,940 --> 00:49:22,660
Let's do this last tweet.
讓我們來看看最後這則推文。

926
00:49:22,660 --> 00:49:25,580
You said don't partner with cynics and pessimists.
你說不要和憤世嫉俗者和悲觀主義者合作。

927
00:49:25,580 --> 00:49:27,140
Their beliefs are self-fulfilling.
他們的信念會自我實現。

928
00:49:27,140 --> 00:49:34,060
Yeah, essentially to create things, you have to be a rational optimist.
是的，基本上，要創造東西，你必須是一個理性的樂觀主義者。

929
00:49:34,060 --> 00:49:37,300
Rational in the sense that you have to see the world for what it really is and yet you
理性是指你必須看清世界的真實面貌，但你

930
00:49:37,300 --> 00:49:42,160
have to be optimistic about your own capabilities and your capability to get things done.
又必須對自己的能力和完成事情的能力保持樂觀。

931
00:49:42,160 --> 00:49:46,300
We all know people who are consistently pessimistic, who will shoot down everything.
我們都認識那些總是悲觀的人，他們會否定一切。

932
00:49:46,300 --> 00:49:49,260
Everyone in their life has the helpful critical guy.
每個人的生活中都有那個樂於助人的批判家。

933
00:49:49,260 --> 00:49:53,540
He thinks he's being helpful, but he's actually being critical and he's a downer on everything.
他以為他在幫忙，但其實他只是在批判，他對任何事都潑冷水。

934
00:49:53,540 --> 00:49:58,900
That person will not only never do anything great in their lives, they'll prevent other
那個人不僅永遠做不出任何偉大的事，他們還會阻止

935
00:49:58,900 --> 00:50:01,000
people around them from doing something great.
身邊的人做偉大的事。

936
00:50:01,000 --> 00:50:03,660
They think their job is to shoot holes in things.
他們認為自己的工作就是挑毛病。

937
00:50:03,660 --> 00:50:07,300
It's okay to shoot holes in things as long as you come up with a solution.
挑毛病沒關係，只要你提出解決方案。

938
00:50:07,300 --> 00:50:12,140
There's also the classic military line, either lead, follow, or get out of the way.
還有句經典的軍中格言：要嘛領導，要嘛跟隨，要嘛就讓開。

939
00:50:12,140 --> 00:50:16,020
These people want a fourth option where they don't want to lead, they don't want to follow,
這些人想要第四個選項，他們不想領導，不想跟隨，

940
00:50:16,020 --> 00:50:17,100
but they don't want to get out of the way.
但他們也不想讓開。

941
00:50:17,100 --> 00:50:19,740
They want to tell you why the thing's not going to work.
他們想告訴你為什麼這件事行不通。

942
00:50:19,740 --> 00:50:24,220
All the really successful people I know have a very strong action bias.
我認識的所有真正成功的人都有非常強的行動偏向。

943
00:50:24,220 --> 00:50:25,500
They just do things.
他們就是去做事。

944
00:50:25,500 --> 00:50:29,340
The easiest way to figure out if something's viable or not is by doing it.
找出某件事是否可行的最簡單方法就是去做它。

945
00:50:29,340 --> 00:50:33,140
At least do the first step and the second step and the third and then decide.
至少先做第一步、第二步、第三步，然後再決定。

946
00:50:33,140 --> 00:50:37,100
If you want to be successful in life, creating wealth or having good relationships or being
如果你想在生活中成功，創造財富、擁有好的關係或

947
00:50:37,100 --> 00:50:41,740
fit or even being happy, you need to have an action bias towards getting what you want.
保持健康甚至快樂，你需要有一種追求你想要的東西的行動偏向。

948
00:50:41,740 --> 00:50:43,660
You have to be optimistic about it.
你必須對此保持樂觀。

949
00:50:43,660 --> 00:50:47,100
Not irrationally, there's nothing worse than someone who's just foolhardy and chasing
不是非理性地，沒有什麼比一個只是魯莽地追逐

950
00:50:47,100 --> 00:50:48,100
them to not work.
那些不會成功的事的人更糟了。

951
00:50:48,100 --> 00:50:49,580
That's why I say rational optimist.
這就是為什麼我說理性的樂觀主義者。

952
00:50:49,580 --> 00:50:54,340
You have to be rational, know all the pitfalls, know the downsides, but still keep your chin
你必須理性，知道所有的陷阱，知道所有的缺點，但仍然保持樂觀。

953
00:50:54,340 --> 00:50:55,340
up.
上。

954
00:50:55,340 --> 00:50:56,940
You've got one life on this planet.
你在這個星球上只有一次生命。

955
00:50:56,940 --> 00:50:59,100
Why not try to build something big?
為什麼不試著建造一些大的東西呢？

956
00:50:59,100 --> 00:51:02,500
This is the beauty of Elon Musk and why I think he inspires so many people is just because
這就是伊隆·馬斯克的美妙之處，也是我認為他能激勵這麼多人的原因，就因為

957
00:51:02,500 --> 00:51:07,580
he takes on really, really big audacious tasks and he provides an example for people to think
他承擔了非常、非常宏大而大膽的任務，他為人們提供了一個思考

958
00:51:07,580 --> 00:51:08,580
big.
大事的榜樣。

959
00:51:08,580 --> 00:51:10,900
It takes a lot of work to build even small things.
即使是建造小的東西也需要很多工作。

960
00:51:10,900 --> 00:51:15,520
I don't think the corner grocery store owner is working any less hard than Elon Musk or
我不認為街角雜貨店的老闆比伊隆·馬斯克工作得不努力，或者

961
00:51:15,520 --> 00:51:19,540
pouring any less sweat and toil into it, maybe even more.
付出的汗水和辛勞更少，甚至可能更多。

962
00:51:19,540 --> 00:51:24,420
But for whatever reason, education, circumstance, they didn't get the chance to think as big.
但無論是何原因，教育、環境，他們沒有機會想得那麼大。

963
00:51:24,420 --> 00:51:26,140
So the outcome's not as big.
所以結果就沒那麼大。

964
00:51:26,140 --> 00:51:30,500
So it's just better to think big, obviously rationally within your means to stay optimistic.
所以，顯然地，在自己能力範圍內，理性地保持樂觀，想得大一點會更好。

965
00:51:30,500 --> 00:51:35,160
The cynics and the pessimists, what they're really saying and fortunate, but they're saying
憤世嫉俗者和悲觀主義者，他們真正說的，幸運的是，他們說

966
00:51:35,160 --> 00:51:36,220
I've given up.
我放棄了。

967
00:51:36,220 --> 00:51:38,060
I don't think I can do anything.
我不認為我能做任何事。

968
00:51:38,060 --> 00:51:42,340
And so the world to me just looks like a world where nobody can do anything.
所以對我來說，世界就像一個沒有人能做任何事的世界。

969
00:51:42,340 --> 00:51:44,360
And so why should you go do something?
那你為什麼要做點什麼呢？

970
00:51:44,360 --> 00:51:47,360
Because if you fail, then I'm right, which is great.
因為如果你失敗了，那我就是對的，那很好。

971
00:51:47,360 --> 00:51:49,700
But if you succeed, then you just make me look bad.
但如果你成功了，那你只會讓我難看。

972
00:51:49,700 --> 00:51:54,900
Yeah, it's probably better to be an irrational optimist than it is to be a rational cynic.
是的，或許當一個非理性的樂觀主義者比當一個理性的憤世嫉俗者更好。

973
00:51:54,900 --> 00:51:59,460
Yeah, there's a completely rational frame on why you should be an optimist.
是的，有一個完全理性的框架可以解釋為什麼你應該成為一個樂觀主義者。

974
00:51:59,460 --> 00:52:04,500
Historically, if you go back 2000 years, 5000 years, 10,000 years, two people are wandering
歷史上，如果你回到2000年、5000年、10000年前，兩個人在

975
00:52:04,500 --> 00:52:05,500
through a jungle.
叢林中漫遊。

976
00:52:05,500 --> 00:52:09,140
They hear a tiger, one's an optimist and says, oh, it's not headed our way.
他們聽到老虎的聲音，一個是樂觀主義者，說：「哦，牠不是朝我們這邊來的。」

977
00:52:09,140 --> 00:52:11,340
The other one says, I'm a pessimist, I'm out of here.
另一個說：「我是個悲觀主義者，我走了。」

978
00:52:11,340 --> 00:52:14,940
And the pessimist runs and survives and the optimist gets eaten.
悲觀主義者跑了，活了下來，樂觀主義者被吃掉了。

979
00:52:14,940 --> 00:52:16,900
So we're descended from pessimists.
所以我們是悲觀主義者的後代。

980
00:52:16,900 --> 00:52:19,580
We're genetically hardwired to be pessimists.
我們基因上就被設定為悲觀主義者。

981
00:52:19,580 --> 00:52:22,540
But modern society is far, far safer.
但現代社會安全得多。

982
00:52:22,540 --> 00:52:24,520
There are no tigers wandering down the street.
街上沒有老虎在遊蕩。

983
00:52:24,520 --> 00:52:28,260
It's very unlikely that you will end up in total ruin, although you should avoid total
你最終陷入完全毀滅的可能性很小，雖然你應該避免完全

984
00:52:28,260 --> 00:52:29,300
ruin.
毀滅。

985
00:52:29,300 --> 00:52:32,940
Much more likely that the upside is unlimited and the downside is limited.
更有可能的是，上升空間是無限的，而下降空間是有限的。

986
00:52:32,940 --> 00:52:39,420
So adapting for modern society means overriding your pessimism and taking slightly irrationally
所以適應現代社會意味著克服你的悲觀主義，採取稍微非理性的

987
00:52:39,420 --> 00:52:42,520
optimistic bets because the upside is unlimited.
樂觀賭注，因為上升空間是無限的。

988
00:52:42,520 --> 00:52:47,380
If you start the next SpaceX or Tesla or Uber, you could make billions of dollars of value
如果你創立了下一個 SpaceX、Tesla 或 Uber，你可以為社會和自己創造數十億美元的價值，

989
00:52:47,380 --> 00:52:50,100
for society and for yourself and change the world.
並改變世界。

990
00:52:50,100 --> 00:52:51,540
And if you fail, that's a big deal.
如果你失敗了，那是一件大事。

991
00:52:51,540 --> 00:52:54,380
You lost a few million dollars of investor money and they've got plenty more.
你損失了幾百萬美元的投資者資金，而他們還有很多。

992
00:52:54,380 --> 00:52:57,500
And that's the bet they take the chances that you will succeed.
這就是他們冒險賭你會成功的賭注。

993
00:52:57,500 --> 00:53:00,180
It made sense to be pessimistic in the past.
過去悲觀是有道理的。

994
00:53:00,180 --> 00:53:04,460
It makes sense to be optimistic today, especially if you're educated and living in a first world
今天保持樂觀是有道理的，特別是如果你受過教育，生活在第一世界

995
00:53:04,460 --> 00:53:05,460
country.
國家。

996
00:53:05,460 --> 00:53:08,500
Even a third world country, I actually think the economic opportunities in third world
即使是第三世界國家，我其實認為第三世界國家的經濟機會

997
00:53:08,500 --> 00:53:09,820
countries are much larger.
要大得多。

998
00:53:09,820 --> 00:53:13,060
The one thing you have to avoid is the risk of ruin.
你必須避免的一件事是毀滅的風險。

999
00:53:13,060 --> 00:53:14,620
Ruin means to stay out of jail.
毀滅意味著不要坐牢。

1000
00:53:14,620 --> 00:53:16,220
So don't do anything that's illegal.
所以不要做任何違法的事。

1001
00:53:16,220 --> 00:53:20,940
It's never worth it to wear an orange jumpsuit and stay out of total catastrophic loss.
穿橙色囚衣，避開完全災難性的損失，是絕對不值得的。

1002
00:53:20,940 --> 00:53:24,660
That could mean that you stay out of things that could be physically dangerous, hurt your
那可能意味著你避開那些可能對身體造成危險、傷害你

1003
00:53:24,660 --> 00:53:25,660
body.
身體的事物。

1004
00:53:25,660 --> 00:53:29,180
You have to watch your health and stay out of things that can cause you to lose all of
你必須注意你的健康，避開那些會讓你失去所有

1005
00:53:29,180 --> 00:53:30,860
your capital, all of your savings.
資本、所有儲蓄的事物。

1006
00:53:30,860 --> 00:53:33,260
It'll gamble everything at one go.
它會一次賭上一切。

1007
00:53:33,260 --> 00:53:36,660
But you take rationally optimistic bets with big upside.
但你應該下理性的、樂觀的、有巨大上升空間的賭注。

1008
00:53:36,660 --> 00:53:41,340
I think there's people that will try and build up your ideas and build on your ideas, no
我想有些人會試圖建立你的想法，並在你的想法上再建立，

1009
00:53:41,340 --> 00:53:43,300
matter how far fetched they might seem.
無論它們看起來多麼牽強。

1010
00:53:43,300 --> 00:53:48,560
And then there are people who will list out all the obvious exceptions, no matter how
然後有些人會列出所有明顯的例外，無論

1011
00:53:48,560 --> 00:53:50,060
obvious they are.
它們多麼明顯。

1012
00:53:50,060 --> 00:53:54,300
And fortunately, in the startup world, I don't even really get exposed to the people
幸運的是，在新創圈，我甚至不太接觸到那些

1013
00:53:54,300 --> 00:53:58,900
that are giving you the obvious exceptions and all the reasons it's not going to work.
給你明顯的例外和所有它行不通的理由的人。

1014
00:53:58,900 --> 00:54:01,420
I barely get exposed to that anymore.
我幾乎不再接觸到那種人了。

1015
00:54:01,420 --> 00:54:02,700
That's what Twitter is for.
這就是推特的用途。

1016
00:54:02,700 --> 00:54:06,540
Scott Adams got so annoyed by this that he came up with the phrase, an acronym, which
Scott Adams 對此感到非常厭煩，以至於他想出了一個詞，一個縮寫，

1017
00:54:06,540 --> 00:54:10,940
is "But of course there are obvious exceptions, B-O-C-T-A-O-E."
就是「但當然有明顯的例外，B-O-C-T-A-O-E」。

1018
00:54:10,940 --> 00:54:14,680
And he used to pin that acronym at the end of his articles for a while.
而且他曾有一段時間在他的文章結尾處釘上那個縮寫。

1019
00:54:14,680 --> 00:54:17,660
But Twitter is just overrun with nitpickers.
但推特上充斥著吹毛求疵的人。

1020
00:54:17,660 --> 00:54:20,980
And where exactly, as you're pointing out, Silicon Valley has learned that the upside
而就像你指出的，矽谷已經學到了，上升空間

1021
00:54:20,980 --> 00:54:26,340
is so great that you never look down on the slobby kid who's wearing a hoodie and has coffee
是如此巨大，以至於你永遠不要看不起那個穿著連帽衫、鞋上有咖啡漬的

1022
00:54:26,340 --> 00:54:30,380
on his shoes and just looks like a slob because you don't know if he's going to be the next
邋遢孩子，因為你不知道他是否會成為下一個

1023
00:54:30,380 --> 00:54:32,380
Mark Zuckerberg or the next Reid Hoffman.
Mark Zuckerberg 或下一個 Reid Hoffman。

1024
00:54:32,380 --> 00:54:34,800
So you've got to treat everybody with respect.
所以你必須尊重每一個人。

1025
00:54:34,800 --> 00:54:39,780
You've got to look up to every possibility and opportunity because the upside is so unlimited
你必須尊重每一個可能性和機會，因為上升空間是如此無限，

1026
00:54:39,780 --> 00:54:43,740
and the downside is so limited in the modern world, especially with financial assets and
而下降空間在現代世界是如此有限，特別是金融資產和

1027
00:54:43,740 --> 00:54:44,740
instruments.
工具。

1028
00:54:44,740 --> 00:54:50,460
Do you want to talk a little bit about the skills that you need in particular, specific
你是否想談談你特別需要的技能，特定的

1029
00:54:50,460 --> 00:54:54,820
knowledge, accountability, leverage, and judgment?
知識、責任、槓桿和判斷力？

1030
00:54:54,820 --> 00:55:03,140
So the first tweet in this area is "arm yourself with specific knowledge, accountability, and leverage."
所以這領域的第一則推文是「用特定知識、責任和槓桿來武裝自己」。

1032
00:55:03,140 --> 00:55:05,220
And I'll throw in judgment as well.
我還會加上「判斷力」。

1033
00:55:05,220 --> 00:55:07,900
I don't think you covered that in that particular tweet.
我認為你在那則特定的推文中沒有提到那個。

1034
00:55:07,900 --> 00:55:12,620
If you want to make money, you have to get paid at scale.
如果你想賺錢，你必須大規模地獲得報酬。

1035
00:55:12,620 --> 00:55:13,900
And why you?
為什麼是你？

1036
00:55:13,900 --> 00:55:15,500
That's accountability.
那就是責任。

1037
00:55:15,500 --> 00:55:17,880
At scale, that's leverage.
大規模，那就是槓桿。

1038
00:55:17,880 --> 00:55:23,240
And just you getting paid as opposed to somebody else getting paid, that's specific knowledge.
而只是你拿到報酬，而不是別人拿到報酬，那就是特定知識。

1039
00:55:23,240 --> 00:55:27,460
So specific knowledge is probably the hardest thing to get across in this whole tweet storm
所以，特定知識可能是這整個推文風暴中最難傳達的東西，

1040
00:55:27,460 --> 00:55:31,080
and it's probably the thing that people get the most confused about.
而且它可能是人們最感到困惑的事情。

1041
00:55:31,080 --> 00:55:36,700
The thing is that we have this idea that everything can be taught, everything can be taught in
問題是，我們有這樣一種觀念，認為任何東西都可以被教導，任何東西都可以在

1042
00:55:36,700 --> 00:55:39,300
school and it's not true that everything can be taught.
學校裡教，但並非所有東西都可以被教導。

1043
00:55:39,300 --> 00:55:43,580
In fact, the most interesting things cannot be taught, but everything can be learned.
事實上，最有趣的東西是無法被教導的，但任何東西都可以被學習。

1044
00:55:43,580 --> 00:55:49,420
And very often that learning either comes from some innate characteristics in your DNA
而這種學習往往來自於你 DNA 中的某些天生特質，

1045
00:55:49,420 --> 00:55:53,060
or it could be through your childhood where you learn soft skills, which are very, very
或者它可能來自於你的童年，你學會了軟技能，那些非常、非常

1046
00:55:53,060 --> 00:55:59,540
hard to teach later on in life, or it's something that is brand new so nobody else knows how
難以在晚年教導的東西，或者它是某種全新的東西，所以沒有人知道如何

1047
00:55:59,540 --> 00:56:04,180
to do it either, or it's true on the job training because you're pattern matching into highly
去做，或者是真正的在職訓練，因為你在高度

1048
00:56:04,180 --> 00:56:08,420
complex environments, building judgment in a specific domain.
複雜的環境中進行模式匹配，建立特定領域的判斷力。

1049
00:56:08,420 --> 00:56:10,780
Classic example is investing, but it could be in anything.
典型的例子是投資，但它可以是任何東西。

1050
00:56:10,780 --> 00:56:13,740
It could be in judgment in running a fleet of trucks.
它可以是在經營卡車車隊方面的判斷力。

1051
00:56:13,740 --> 00:56:16,240
It could be judgment in weather forecasting.
它可以是天氣預報方面的判斷力。

1052
00:56:16,240 --> 00:56:21,560
So specific knowledge is the knowledge that you care about, especially if you're later
所以，特定知識是你關心的知識，特別是如果你年紀較大，

1053
00:56:21,560 --> 00:56:26,660
in life, let's say you're post-2021, 2022, you almost don't get to choose which specific
比如說你過了 2021、2022 年，你幾乎無法選擇你擁有哪種特定

1054
00:56:26,660 --> 00:56:27,820
knowledge you have.
知識。

1055
00:56:27,820 --> 00:56:32,020
Rather, you get to look at what you have already built by that point in time and then you can
相反地，你可以看看你到那個時候已經建立的東西，然後你可以在

1056
00:56:32,020 --> 00:56:33,500
build on top of it.
那上面再建立。

1057
00:56:33,500 --> 00:56:37,820
The first thing to notice about specific knowledge is that you can't be trained for it.
關於特定知識，首先要注意的是，你無法為此接受培訓。

1058
00:56:37,820 --> 00:56:42,340
If you can be trained for it, if you can go to a class and learn specific knowledge, then
如果你可以為此接受培訓，如果你可以去上課學習特定知識，那麼

1059
00:56:42,340 --> 00:56:44,220
somebody else can be trained for it too.
別人也可以為此接受培訓。

1060
00:56:44,220 --> 00:56:46,580
And then we can mass produce and mass train people.
然後我們就可以大量生產和大量培訓人員。

1061
00:56:46,580 --> 00:56:50,180
Heck, we can even program computers to do it and eventually we can program robots to
天啊，我們甚至可以編程電腦來做，最終我們甚至可以編程機器人

1062
00:56:50,180 --> 00:56:51,700
walk around doing it.
走來走去做這件事。

1063
00:56:51,700 --> 00:56:56,540
So if that's the case, then you're extremely replaceable and all we have to pay you is
如果是這樣，那你就是極其可替代的，而我們只需要付給你

1064
00:56:56,540 --> 00:57:00,020
the minimum wage that we have to pay you to get you to do it when there are lots of other
為了讓你做這件事所必須支付的最低工資，而還有很多其他

1065
00:57:00,020 --> 00:57:01,900
takers who can be trained to do it.
可以被訓練去做這件事的人。

1066
00:57:01,900 --> 00:57:07,420
So really, your returns just devolve into your cost of training plus the return on investment
所以，你的回報基本上就變成了你的訓練成本加上那項訓練的

1067
00:57:07,420 --> 00:57:08,620
on that training.
投資回報。

1068
00:57:08,620 --> 00:57:11,340
So you really want to pick up specific knowledge.
所以你真的需要學習特定的知識。

1069
00:57:11,340 --> 00:57:15,240
You need your schooling, you need your training to be able to capitalize on the best specific
你需要你的學校教育、你的訓練，才能夠利用最好的特定

1070
00:57:15,240 --> 00:57:20,180
knowledge, but the part of it that you'll get paid for is the specific knowledge.
知識，但你會得到報酬的部分是特定知識。

1071
00:57:20,180 --> 00:57:24,340
For example, someone who goes and gets a degree in psychology and then becomes a salesperson.
例如，某人去拿了心理學學位，然後成為一名銷售員。

1072
00:57:24,340 --> 00:57:28,700
Well, if they were already a formidable salesperson and had great salesmanship to begin with,
嗯，如果他們一開始就是一個很厲害的銷售員，擁有很棒的銷售技巧，

1073
00:57:28,700 --> 00:57:31,100
then the psychology degree is leveraged.
那麼心理學學位就是一種槓桿。

1074
00:57:31,100 --> 00:57:33,720
It arms them and they do much better at sales.
它武裝了他們，讓他們在銷售上表現得更好。

1075
00:57:33,720 --> 00:57:37,580
But if they were always an introvert, never very good at sales and they're trying to
但如果他們一直都很內向，從來不擅長銷售，而且他們試圖

1076
00:57:37,580 --> 00:57:41,620
use psychology to learn sales, they're just not going to get that great at it.
用心理學來學習銷售，他們就是不會做得太好。

1077
00:57:41,620 --> 00:57:48,040
Specific knowledge is found much more by pursuing your innate talents, your genuine curiosity
特定知識更多是透過追求你的天賦、你真正的好奇心

1078
00:57:48,040 --> 00:57:49,460
and your passion.
和你的熱情來找到的。

1079
00:57:49,460 --> 00:57:52,820
It's not by going to school for whatever is the hottest job.
這不是為了最熱門的工作而去上學。

1080
00:57:52,820 --> 00:57:56,720
It's not for going into whatever field investors say is the hottest.
這不是為了進入投資者所說的最熱門的領域。

1081
00:57:56,720 --> 00:57:59,780
Very often, specific knowledge is at the edge of knowledge.
很多時候，特定知識處於知識的邊緣。

1082
00:57:59,780 --> 00:58:03,660
It's also stuff that's just being figured out or is really hard to figure out.
它也是那些正在被弄清楚或很難弄清楚的東西。

1083
00:58:03,660 --> 00:58:09,540
So if you're not 100% into it, somebody else who is 100% into it will outperform you and
所以如果你不是 100% 投入，其他 100% 投入的人會超越你，而且

1084
00:58:09,540 --> 00:58:13,520
they won't just outperform you by a little bit, they'll outperform you by a lot.
他們不會只超越你一點點，他們會超越你很多。

1085
00:58:13,520 --> 00:58:17,780
Because now we're operating the domain of ideas, compound interest really applies and
因為現在我們在思想的領域運作，複利真的適用，而且

1086
00:58:17,780 --> 00:58:19,260
leverage really applies.
槓桿也真的適用。

1087
00:58:19,260 --> 00:58:23,860
So if you're operating with a thousand times leverage and somebody is right 80% of the
所以如果你用一千倍的槓桿操作，而某人有 80% 的時間是正確的，

1088
00:58:23,860 --> 00:58:28,740
time and somebody else is right 90% of the time, the person who's right 90% of the time
而另一個人有 90% 的時間是正確的，那個 90% 時間正確的人

1089
00:58:28,740 --> 00:58:32,440
will literally get paid hundreds of times more by the market because of the leverage
真的會從市場上得到數百倍的回報，因為槓桿

1090
00:58:32,440 --> 00:58:35,020
and because of the compounding factors and being correct.
和複利因素以及正確性的關係。

1091
00:58:35,020 --> 00:58:39,260
So you really want to make sure you're good at it so your genuine curiosity is very important.
所以你真的要確保你擅長它，所以你真正的好奇心非常重要。

1092
00:58:39,260 --> 00:58:43,780
So very often, it's not something you sit down and you reason about.
所以很多時候，這不是你坐下來思考就能得出的。

1093
00:58:43,780 --> 00:58:45,660
It's more found by observation.
它更多是透過觀察發現的。

1094
00:58:45,660 --> 00:58:49,460
You almost have to look back on your own life and see what you're actually good at.
你幾乎必須回顧你自己的生活，看看你真正擅長什麼。

1095
00:58:49,460 --> 00:58:55,220
For example, I wanted to be a scientist and that is where a lot of my moral hierarchy
例如，我曾想成為一名科學家，而那是我許多道德階層的

1096
00:58:55,220 --> 00:58:56,220
comes from.
來源。

1097
00:58:56,220 --> 00:59:01,900
I view scientists at the top of the production chain for humanity and the group of scientists
我視科學家為人類生產鏈的頂端，而那群

1098
00:59:01,900 --> 00:59:05,820
who have made real breakthroughs and contributions have probably added more to human society,
做出真正突破和貢獻的科學家，可能對人類社會的貢獻，

1099
00:59:05,820 --> 00:59:10,620
I think, than any single other class of human beings, not to take away anything from art
我認為，比任何其他單一類別的人類都多，這並不是要貶低藝術、

1100
00:59:10,620 --> 00:59:13,300
or politics or engineering or business.
政治、工程或商業的任何貢獻。

1101
00:59:13,300 --> 00:59:17,340
But without the science, we'd still be scrabbling in the dirt, fighting with sticks and trying
但沒有科學，我們現在還會在泥土裡掙扎，用棍子打鬥，試圖

1102
00:59:17,340 --> 00:59:18,820
to start fires.
生火。

1103
00:59:18,820 --> 00:59:23,520
My whole value system was built around scientists and I wanted to be a great scientist.
我整個價值體系都是圍繞著科學家建立的，我曾想成為一個偉大的科學家。

1104
00:59:23,520 --> 00:59:28,400
But when I actually look back at what I was uniquely good at and what I ended up spending
但當我回顧我真正獨特擅長什麼，以及我最終花時間

1105
00:59:28,400 --> 00:59:34,840
my time doing, it was more around making money, tinkering with technology and selling people
做什麼時，它更多是圍繞著賺錢、搗鼓科技和向人們推銷

1106
00:59:34,840 --> 00:59:37,300
on things, explaining things, talking to people.
東西、解釋事情、與人交談。

1107
00:59:37,300 --> 00:59:41,080
So I have some sales skills, which is a form of specific knowledge that I have.
所以我有一些銷售技巧，那是我擁有的一種特定知識。

1108
00:59:41,080 --> 00:59:46,100
I have some analytical skills around how to make money and having this ability to absorb
我有一些關於如何賺錢的分析技巧，以及這種吸收

1109
00:59:46,100 --> 00:59:50,620
data, obsess about it and break it down and that is a specific skill that I have.
數據、痴迷於它並將其分解的能力，那是我擁有的一項特定技能。

1110
00:59:50,620 --> 00:59:55,540
I also just love tinkering with technology and all of this stuff feels like play to me,
我也很喜歡搗鼓科技，所有這些東西對我來說都像在玩，

1111
00:59:55,540 --> 00:59:57,620
but it looks like work to others.
但對別人來說卻像工作。

1112
00:59:57,620 --> 01:00:00,700
So there are other people to whom these things would be hard.
所以對其他人來說，這些事情會很困難。

1113
01:00:00,700 --> 01:00:04,740
They say like, "Well, how do I get good at being pithy and selling ideas?"
他們會說：「嗯，我要如何擅長簡潔有力地推銷想法呢？」

1114
01:00:04,740 --> 01:00:09,220
Well, if you're not already good at it or you're not really into it, maybe it's not your thing,
嗯，如果你還不擅長，或者你不是真的投入，也許那不是你的菜，

1115
01:00:09,220 --> 01:00:11,580
focus on the thing that you are really into.
專注於你真正投入的事情。

1116
01:00:11,580 --> 01:00:16,100
This is ironic but the first person to actually point out my real specific knowledge was my
這很諷刺，但第一個真正指出我真正特定知識的人是我的

1117
01:00:16,100 --> 01:00:20,980
mother and she did it as an aside talking from the kitchen and she said it when I was
母親，她在廚房裡隨口一說，她說這話的時候我

1118
01:00:20,980 --> 01:00:22,620
like 15 or 16 years old.
大概十五、六歲。

1119
01:00:22,620 --> 01:00:26,180
I was telling a friend of mine that I wanted to be an astrophysicist and she said, "No,
我跟一個朋友說我想當天體物理學家，她說：「不，

1120
01:00:26,180 --> 01:00:27,180
you're going to go into business."
你會去做生意。」

1121
01:00:27,180 --> 01:00:28,480
And I was like, "What?
我當時心想：「什麼？

1122
01:00:28,480 --> 01:00:31,260
My mom's telling me I'm going to be in business, I'm going to be an astrophysicist.
我媽說我會去做生意，我可是要當天體物理學家的。

1123
01:00:31,260 --> 01:00:32,660
Mom doesn't know what she's talking about."
媽媽根本不知道她在說什麼。」

1124
01:00:32,660 --> 01:00:36,580
But mom knew exactly what she was talking about, she had already observed that every time we
但媽媽完全知道她在說什麼，她早就觀察到，每一次我們

1125
01:00:36,580 --> 01:00:40,460
walked down the street, I would critique the local pizza parlor on why they were selling
走在街上，我都會評論當地的披薩店為什麼用某種方式賣

1126
01:00:40,460 --> 01:00:44,380
their slices a certain way with certain toppings and why their process of ordering was this
他們的披薩，用某些配料，為什麼他們的點餐流程是這樣，

1127
01:00:44,380 --> 01:00:45,940
way when it should have been that way.
而不是那樣。

1128
01:00:45,940 --> 01:00:50,260
So she knew that I was just had more of a business curious mind but then my obsession
所以她知道我只是有更強烈的商業好奇心，但後來我的癡迷

1129
01:00:50,260 --> 01:00:54,840
with science combined to create technology and technology business is where I found myself.
與科學結合，創造了科技，而科技商業就是我找到自己的地方。

1130
01:00:54,840 --> 01:00:59,880
So very often, your specific knowledge is observed and often observed by other people
所以很多時候，你的特定知識是透過觀察，而且常常是透過其他

1131
01:00:59,880 --> 01:01:04,300
who know you well and revealed in situations rather than something that you come up with.
了解你的人觀察，並在情境中揭示出來的，而不是你自己想出來的。

1132
01:01:04,300 --> 01:01:09,060
To the extent that specific knowledge is taught, it's on the job, it's through apprenticeships
在特定知識被教導的程度上，它是在職的，是透過學徒制，

1133
01:01:09,060 --> 01:01:13,220
and that's why the best businesses, the best careers are the apprenticeship careers because
這就是為什麼最好的企業、最好的職業是學徒制的職業，因為

1134
01:01:13,220 --> 01:01:16,220
those are the things that society still has not figured out how to train and automate
那些是社會還沒有想出如何訓練和自動化

1135
01:01:16,220 --> 01:01:17,220
yet.
的事情。

1136
01:01:17,220 --> 01:01:20,940
The classic line here is that Warren Buffett went to Benjamin Graham when he got out of
這裡的經典台詞是，華倫·巴菲特剛從

1137
01:01:20,940 --> 01:01:25,460
school and Benjamin Graham was the author of The Intelligent Investor and sort of modernized
學校畢業就去找班傑明·葛拉漢，而葛拉漢是《智慧型股票投資人》的作者，他可以說是現代化

1138
01:01:25,460 --> 01:01:28,300
or created value investing as a discipline.
或創造了價值投資這個學科。

1139
01:01:28,300 --> 01:01:31,860
And Warren Buffett went to Benjamin Graham and offered to work for him for free and Graham
而華倫·巴菲特去找班傑明·葛拉漢，主動提出免費為他工作，葛拉漢

1140
01:01:31,860 --> 01:01:33,700
said, "Actually, you're overpriced.
說：「其實，你太貴了。

1141
01:01:33,700 --> 01:01:35,380
Free is overpriced."
免費就是太貴了。」

1142
01:01:35,380 --> 01:01:40,260
And Graham was absolutely right that when it comes to a very valuable apprenticeship
而葛拉漢完全正確，當談到一個非常有價值的學徒機會，

1143
01:01:40,260 --> 01:01:44,820
like the type that Graham was going to give Buffett, Buffett should have been paying him
就像葛拉漢將要給巴菲特的那種，巴菲特應該付給他

1144
01:01:44,820 --> 01:01:45,940
a lot of money.
很多錢。

1145
01:01:45,940 --> 01:01:50,020
And that right there tells you that those are skills worth knowing.
而那正告訴你，那些是值得學習的技能。

1146
01:01:50,020 --> 01:01:52,780
Specific knowledge also tends to be technical and creative.
特定知識也傾向於技術性和創造性。

1147
01:01:52,780 --> 01:01:56,180
So on the bleeding edge of technology, on the bleeding edge of art, on the bleeding edge
所以在科技的前沿，在藝術的前沿，在溝通的

1148
01:01:56,180 --> 01:02:00,660
of communication, even today, for example, there are probably meme lords out there on
前沿，即使是今天，例如，網路上可能有些迷因大師

1149
01:02:00,660 --> 01:02:06,540
the internet who can create incredible memes that will spread the idea to millions of people
能夠創造出驚人的迷因，將想法傳播給數百萬人，

1150
01:02:06,540 --> 01:02:07,540
or are very persuasive.
或者非常有說服力。

1151
01:02:07,540 --> 01:02:10,540
Like, for example, Scott Adams is a good example of this.
例如，Scott Adams 就是一個很好的例子。

1152
01:02:10,540 --> 01:02:15,020
He's essentially becoming one of the most credible people in the world by making accurate
他基本上是透過做出準確的

1153
01:02:15,020 --> 01:02:19,020
predictions through persuasive arguments and videos.
預測，透過有說服力的論點和影片，成為世界上最可信的人之一。

1154
01:02:19,020 --> 01:02:23,700
And that is specific knowledge that he has built up over the years because he got obsessed
而那正是他多年來建立的特定知識，因為他年輕時癡迷

1155
01:02:23,700 --> 01:02:25,540
with hypnosis when he was young.
於催眠。

1156
01:02:25,540 --> 01:02:27,740
He learned how to communicate through cartooning.
他透過漫畫學會了如何溝通。

1157
01:02:27,740 --> 01:02:31,500
He embraced Periscope early, so he's been practicing lots of conversation.
他很早就開始使用 Periscope，所以他練習了很多對話。

1158
01:02:31,500 --> 01:02:33,420
He's read all the books on the topic.
他讀了所有關於這個主題的書。

1159
01:02:33,420 --> 01:02:34,940
He's employed it in his everyday life.
他在日常生活中運用它。

1160
01:02:34,940 --> 01:02:38,100
If you look at his girlfriend, she's like this beautiful young Instagram model.
如果你看看他的女朋友，她就像一個美麗年輕的 Instagram 模特兒。

1161
01:02:38,100 --> 01:02:41,420
That is an example of someone who has built up a specific knowledge over the course of
這就是一個人在他的職業生涯中建立特定知識的例子。

1162
01:02:41,420 --> 01:02:42,580
his career.
他的職業生涯。

1163
01:02:42,580 --> 01:02:43,840
It's highly creative.
它非常具有創造性。

1164
01:02:43,840 --> 01:02:48,620
It has elements of being technical in it and it's something that is never going to be automated.
它有技術性的元素在裡面，而且它永遠不會被自動化。

1165
01:02:48,620 --> 01:02:52,980
No one's going to take that away from him because he's also accountable under one brand as Scott
沒有人能從他身上奪走它，因為他也以 Scott Adams 這個單一品牌承擔責任，

1166
01:02:52,980 --> 01:02:57,020
Adams and he's operating with a leverage of media with Periscope and drawing billboard
而且他正在利用 Periscope 這個媒體、繪製廣告看板卡通和寫書來發揮槓桿作用。

1167
01:02:57,020 --> 01:02:58,940
cartoons and writing books.
卡通和寫書。

1168
01:02:58,940 --> 01:03:03,140
He has massive leverage on top of that brand and he can build wealth out of it if he wanted
他在那個品牌之上擁有巨大的槓桿作用，如果他想的話，他可以從中建立財富，

1169
01:03:03,140 --> 01:03:06,780
to build additional wealth beyond what he already has.
建立超出他現有財富的額外財富。

1170
01:03:06,780 --> 01:03:11,780
Should we be calling it unique knowledge or does specific knowledge somehow make more
我們應該稱之為「獨特知識」嗎？還是「特定知識」在某種程度上更有

1171
01:03:11,780 --> 01:03:12,780
sense for it?
意義？

1172
01:03:12,780 --> 01:03:17,020
You know, I came up with this framework when I was really young and we're talking decades
你知道，我提出這個框架的時候還很年輕，我們說的是幾十年

1173
01:03:17,020 --> 01:03:18,020
and decades.
前的事。

1174
01:03:18,020 --> 01:03:19,480
It's not probably over 30 years old.
它可能還不到三十年。

1175
01:03:19,480 --> 01:03:23,180
And so, at the time, just specific knowledge stuck with me so that is how I think about
所以，在那時候，就是「特定知識」這個詞讓我印象深刻，所以我就是這樣想

1176
01:03:23,180 --> 01:03:24,180
it.
它的。

1177
01:03:24,180 --> 01:03:28,940
The reason I didn't try and change it is because every other term that I found for it was overloaded
我沒有試圖改變它的原因是，我找到的所有其他術語都以

1178
01:03:28,940 --> 01:03:30,260
in a different way.
不同的方式被過度使用。

1179
01:03:30,260 --> 01:03:33,100
At least specific knowledge isn't that used.
至少「特定知識」這個詞不常用。

1180
01:03:33,100 --> 01:03:34,460
I can rebrand it.
我可以重新命名它。

1181
01:03:34,460 --> 01:03:38,980
The problem with unique knowledge is yeah, maybe it's unique but if I learn it from somebody
獨特知識的問題在於，是的，也許它是獨特的，但如果我從別人那裡學來，

1182
01:03:38,980 --> 01:03:41,780
else that's no longer unique, then we both know it.
那它就不再獨特了，那我們倆都知道了。

1183
01:03:41,780 --> 01:03:46,780
So it's not so much that it is unique, it's that it is highly specific to the situation,
所以，它不見得是獨特的，而是它高度特定於情境、

1184
01:03:46,780 --> 01:03:52,000
it's specific to the individual, it's specific to the problem and it can only be built as
特定於個人、特定於問題，而且它只能作為

1185
01:03:52,000 --> 01:03:58,420
part of a larger obsession, interest and time spent in that domain.
一個更大的痴迷、興趣和在那個領域所花費時間的一部分來建立。

1186
01:03:58,420 --> 01:04:03,100
It can't just be read straight out of a single book nor can be taught in a single course
它不能只從一本書中直接讀到，也不能在一門課程中被教導，

1187
01:04:03,100 --> 01:04:06,220
nor can be programmed into a single algorithm.
也不能被編程成一個單一的演算法。

1188
01:04:06,220 --> 01:04:13,820
Speaking of Scott Adams, he's got a blog post on how to build your career by getting in
說到 Scott Adams，他有一篇關於如何建立你的職業生涯的部落格文章，是透過進入

1189
01:04:13,820 --> 01:04:21,700
say the top 25 percentile at three or more things and by doing that, you become the only
比如說，在三個或更多方面達到前 25%，這樣做，你就會成為世界上唯一

1190
01:04:21,700 --> 01:04:26,100
person in the world who can do those three things in the 25th percentile.
能夠在那三件事上做到前 25% 的人。

1191
01:04:26,100 --> 01:04:30,420
So instead of trying to be the best at one thing, you just try to be very, very good at
所以與其試圖在一件事上做到最好，你不如試著在

1192
01:04:30,420 --> 01:04:32,060
three or more things.
三件或更多事情上做到非常、非常好。

1193
01:04:32,060 --> 01:04:34,300
Is that a way of building specific knowledge?
那是建立特定知識的一種方式嗎？

1194
01:04:34,300 --> 01:04:39,220
I actually think the best way is just to follow your own obsession and somewhere in the back
我其實認為最好的方法就是追隨你自己的痴迷，而在你的腦海深處

1195
01:04:39,220 --> 01:04:44,500
of your mind, you can realize that hey, actually this obsession, like I'll keep an eye out
，你會意識到，嘿，其實這個痴迷，就像我會留意

1196
01:04:44,500 --> 01:04:48,800
for the commercial aspects of it but I think if you go around trying to build it a little
它的商業方面，但我認為如果你試圖稍微

1197
01:04:48,800 --> 01:04:53,060
too deliberately, if you become too goal-oriented on the money, then you won't pick the right
太刻意地去建立它，如果你變得太以金錢為目標，那麼你就不會選擇正確的

1198
01:04:53,060 --> 01:04:54,060
thing.
東西。

1199
01:04:54,060 --> 01:04:57,220
You won't actually pick the thing that you love to do so you won't go deep enough into
你實際上不會選擇你熱愛做的事情，所以你不會深入研究

1200
01:04:57,220 --> 01:04:58,220
it.
它。

1201
01:04:58,220 --> 01:04:59,940
Scott Adams' observation is a good one.
Scott Adams 的觀察很棒。

1202
01:04:59,940 --> 01:05:01,900
It's predicated on statistics.
它是基於統計學的。

1203
01:05:01,900 --> 01:05:06,460
Let's say there's 10,000 areas that are valuable to the human race today in terms of knowledge
假設今天對人類來說，在知識方面有 10,000 個有價值的領域

1204
01:05:06,460 --> 01:05:07,820
to have.
需要擁有。

1205
01:05:07,820 --> 01:05:11,700
And the number one in those 10,000 slots is taken.
而那 10,000 個位置中的第一名已經被佔了。

1206
01:05:11,700 --> 01:05:15,300
Someone else is likely to be the number one each of those 10,000 unless you happen to
其他人很可能是那 10,000 個領域中每一個的第一名，除非你正好

1207
01:05:15,300 --> 01:05:19,340
be one of the 10,000 most obsessed people in the world at a given thing.
是世界上對某件事最痴迷的 10,000 人之一。

1208
01:05:19,340 --> 01:05:25,820
But when you start going the combinatorics of combining number 3728 with top-notch sales
但當你開始將第 3728 個領域的知識，與頂尖的銷售技巧、

1209
01:05:25,820 --> 01:05:29,940
skills and really good writing skills and someone who understands accounting and finance
非常好的寫作技巧，以及一個非常了解會計和金融的人結合起來時，

1210
01:05:29,940 --> 01:05:34,700
really well, when the need for that intersection arrives, you've expanded now from 10,000 through
當那個交叉點的需求出現時，你現在已經從 10,000 個領域，透過

1211
01:05:34,700 --> 01:05:37,920
combinatorics to millions or tens of millions.
組合學，擴展到數百萬或數千萬個。

1212
01:05:37,920 --> 01:05:40,620
So it just becomes much less competitive.
所以它就變得競爭力低得多。

1213
01:05:40,620 --> 01:05:42,060
Also there's diminishing returns.
還有邊際效益遞減的問題。

1214
01:05:42,060 --> 01:05:47,300
So it's much easier to be top 75 percentile at three or four things than it is to be literally
所以在三、四件事情上達到前 75%，比在某件事上真的

1215
01:05:47,300 --> 01:05:49,420
the number one at something.
成為第一名要容易得多。

1216
01:05:49,420 --> 01:05:54,020
I think it's a very pragmatic approach but I think it's important that one not start
我認為這是一個非常務實的方法，但我認為重要的是不要開始

1217
01:05:54,020 --> 01:05:59,300
assembling things too deliberately because you do want to pick things where you are a
太刻意地組合事物，因為你確實希望選擇那些你是

1218
01:05:59,300 --> 01:06:00,300
natural.
天生好手的事情。

1219
01:06:00,300 --> 01:06:01,300
Everyone is a natural at something.
每個人在某方面都是天生的。

1220
01:06:01,300 --> 01:06:03,020
We're all familiar with that phrase, a natural.
我們都熟悉那個詞，天生的。

1221
01:06:03,020 --> 01:06:06,060
Oh, this person is a natural at meeting men or women.
哦，這個人天生擅長結識男人或女人。

1222
01:06:06,060 --> 01:06:07,540
This person is a natural socialite.
這個人是天生的社交名媛。

1223
01:06:07,540 --> 01:06:09,060
This person is a natural programmer.
這個人是天生的程式設計師。

1224
01:06:09,060 --> 01:06:10,800
This person is a natural reader.
這個人是天生的讀者。

1225
01:06:10,800 --> 01:06:16,540
So whatever you are a natural at, you want to double down on that and then there are
所以無論你天生擅長什麼，你都想加倍努力，然後還有

1226
01:06:16,540 --> 01:06:20,060
probably multiple things you are natural at because personalities and humans are very
可能很多你天生擅長的事情，因為個性和人類是非常

1227
01:06:20,060 --> 01:06:21,340
complex.
複雜的。

1228
01:06:21,340 --> 01:06:26,860
So we want to be able to take the things that you are natural at and combine them so that
所以我們希望能夠把你天生擅長的事情結合起來，這樣

1229
01:06:26,860 --> 01:06:33,020
you automatically just through sheer interest and enjoyment end up top 25 or top 10 or top
你就會自動地，光靠純粹的興趣和享受，在一些事情上達到前 25%、前 10% 或前

1230
01:06:33,020 --> 01:06:35,580
5 percent at a number of things.
5% 的水平。

1231
01:06:35,580 --> 01:06:42,820
Talking about combining skills, you said that you should learn to sell, learn to build.
談到結合技能，你說你應該學習銷售、學習建造。

1232
01:06:42,820 --> 01:06:45,860
If you can do both, you will be unstoppable.
如果你兩者都會，你將勢不可擋。

1233
01:06:45,860 --> 01:06:49,600
This is a very broad category now but it's two broad categories.
這現在是一個很寬的範疇，但它是兩個大的範疇。

1234
01:06:49,600 --> 01:06:55,140
One is building the product which is hard and it's multivariate that can include design,
一個是建造產品，這很困難，而且是多變的，可以包括設計、

1235
01:06:55,140 --> 01:07:00,300
that can include development, that can include manufacturing, logistics, procurement.
開發、製造、物流、採購。

1236
01:07:00,300 --> 01:07:03,180
It could even be designing and operating a service.
它甚至可以是設計和營運一項服務。

1237
01:07:03,180 --> 01:07:08,340
It has many, many definitions but in every industry, there is a definition of the builder.
它有很多很多的定義，但在每個行業，都有一個建造者的定義。

1238
01:07:08,340 --> 01:07:12,860
In our tech industry, that's the CTO, it's the programmer, it's the software engineer,
在我們的科技產業，那是技術長、程式設計師、軟體工程師、

1239
01:07:12,860 --> 01:07:17,180
hardware engineer but even in like a laundry business, it could be the person who's building
硬體工程師，但即使是在像洗衣業這樣的行業，那個人也可能是建造

1240
01:07:17,180 --> 01:07:21,320
the laundry service, who is making the trains run on time, who's making sure all the clothes
洗衣服務的人，是讓一切順利運作的人，是確保所有衣物

1241
01:07:21,320 --> 01:07:24,180
end up in the right place at the right time and so on.
最終在正確的時間到達正確的地方等等的人。

1242
01:07:24,180 --> 01:07:27,260
Then the other side of it is the sales side.
然後另一面是銷售方面。

1243
01:07:27,260 --> 01:07:29,780
Again, selling has a very broad definition.
再次強調，銷售的定義非常廣泛。

1244
01:07:29,780 --> 01:07:34,140
Selling doesn't necessarily just mean selling individual customers but it could mean marketing,
銷售不一定只意味著向個人客戶銷售，它也可以意味著行銷、

1245
01:07:34,140 --> 01:07:37,860
it could mean communicating, it could mean recruiting, it could mean raising money, it
溝通、招聘、籌款、

1246
01:07:37,860 --> 01:07:41,020
could mean inspiring people, it could be doing PR.
激勵人心、做公關。

1247
01:07:41,020 --> 01:07:43,580
So it's a broad umbrella category.
所以它是一個廣泛的範疇。

1248
01:07:43,580 --> 01:07:48,940
So generally, the Silicon Valley startup model tends to work best.
所以一般來說，矽谷的新創模式往往效果最好。

1249
01:07:48,940 --> 01:07:52,220
It's not the only way but it is probably the most common way.
這不是唯一的方式，但它可能是最常見的方式。

1250
01:07:52,220 --> 01:07:57,540
Then you have two founders, one of whom is world-class at sales and one of whom is world-class
然後你有兩個創辦人，一個是世界級的銷售高手，一個是世界級的

1251
01:07:57,540 --> 01:07:58,540
at building.
建造高手。

1252
01:07:58,540 --> 01:08:01,780
An example is of course Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak with Apple.
一個例子當然是蘋果公司的史蒂夫·賈伯斯和史蒂夫·沃茲尼克。

1253
01:08:01,780 --> 01:08:05,820
Gates and Allen probably had similar responsibility early on with Microsoft.
蓋茲和艾倫在微軟早期可能也有類似的責任。

1254
01:08:05,820 --> 01:08:09,820
Larry and Sergey probably broke down along those lines although it's a little different
賴利和賽吉可能也是沿著這些線路分工，雖然有點不同，

1255
01:08:09,820 --> 01:08:14,700
there because that was a very technical product delivered to end users through a simple interface.
因為那是一個透過簡單介面提供給終端用戶的非常技術性的產品。

1256
01:08:14,700 --> 01:08:17,500
But generally, you will see this pattern repeated over and over.
但一般來說，你會一再看到這種模式。

1257
01:08:17,500 --> 01:08:18,940
There's a builder and there's a seller.
有一個建造者和一個銷售者。

1258
01:08:18,940 --> 01:08:24,500
There's a CEO and CTO combo and venture and technology investors are almost trained to
有執行長和技術長組合，而創投和科技投資人幾乎被訓練成

1259
01:08:24,500 --> 01:08:26,580
look for this combo whenever possible.
盡可能地尋找這種組合。

1260
01:08:26,580 --> 01:08:28,540
It's the magic combination.
這是神奇的組合。

1261
01:08:28,540 --> 01:08:32,260
The ultimate is when one individual can do both.
終極是當一個人兩者都會做的時候。

1262
01:08:32,260 --> 01:08:33,980
That's when you get true superpowers.
那時候你才會得到真正的超能力。

1263
01:08:33,980 --> 01:08:36,860
That's when you get people who can create entire industries.
那時候你就會得到能創造整個產業的人。

1264
01:08:36,860 --> 01:08:39,180
The living example is Elon Musk.
活生生的例子是伊隆·馬斯克。

1265
01:08:39,180 --> 01:08:43,060
He may not necessarily be building the rockets himself but he understands enough that he
他可能不一定親自建造火箭，但他足夠了解，以至於他

1266
01:08:43,060 --> 01:08:45,360
actually makes technical contributions.
實際上做出了技術貢獻。

1267
01:08:45,360 --> 01:08:49,500
He understands the technology well enough that no one's going to snow him on it and he's
他對科技的了解足以讓任何人都無法蒙騙他，而且他

1268
01:08:49,500 --> 01:08:53,460
not running around making claims that he doesn't think he can eventually deliver.
不會四處宣揚他認為自己最終無法兌現的承諾。

1269
01:08:53,460 --> 01:08:57,860
He may be optimistic in the timelines but he thinks it's within reasonableness of delivery.
他可能在時間表上很樂觀，但他認為這是在可合理交付的範圍內。

1270
01:08:57,860 --> 01:09:02,140
Even Steve Jobs developed enough product skills and was involved enough in the product that
即使是史蒂夫·賈伯斯，他也發展了足夠的產品技巧，並且足夠地參與產品，

1271
01:09:02,140 --> 01:09:04,900
he also operated in both of these domains.
以至於他也在這兩個領域中運作。

1272
01:09:04,900 --> 01:09:09,180
Larry Ellison started as a programmer and I think wrote the first version of Oracle or
賴瑞·艾利森一開始是程式設計師，我想他寫了甲骨文的第一個版本，或者

1273
01:09:09,180 --> 01:09:11,260
was actually heavily involved in it.
實際上深度參與其中。

1274
01:09:11,260 --> 01:09:13,420
Mark Andreessen was also in this domain.
Mark Andreessen 也在這個領域。

1275
01:09:13,420 --> 01:09:17,140
He may not have had enough confidence in his sales skills but he was the programmer who
他可能對自己的銷售技巧沒有足夠的信心，但他就是那個

1276
01:09:17,140 --> 01:09:19,620
wrote Netscape Navigator, a big chunk of it.
寫了 Netscape Navigator 的程式設計師，而且是很大一部分。

1277
01:09:19,620 --> 01:09:25,420
So I think the real giants in any field are the people who can both build and sell.
所以我認為，任何領域真正的巨擘，都是那些既能建造又能銷售的人。

1278
01:09:25,420 --> 01:09:30,300
And usually the building is the thing that like a salesperson can't pick up building
通常，建造是那種銷售員晚年無法學會的

1279
01:09:30,300 --> 01:09:31,400
later in life.
事情。

1280
01:09:31,400 --> 01:09:37,540
It requires too much focused time but a builder can pick up selling a little bit later, especially
它需要太多的專注時間，但一個建造者可以在晚些時候學會銷售，特別是

1281
01:09:37,540 --> 01:09:41,140
if they were already innately wired to be a good communicator.
如果他們天生就是一個好的溝通者。

1282
01:09:41,140 --> 01:09:46,340
Bill Gates famously paraphrased this as, "I would rather teach an engineer marketing than
比爾·蓋茲曾有名地這樣說：「我寧願教一個工程師行銷，也不願教

1283
01:09:46,340 --> 01:09:47,940
a marketer engineering."
一個行銷人員工程。」

1284
01:09:47,940 --> 01:09:53,360
I think if you start out with a building mentality and you have building skills and still early
我認為如果你一開始就具備建造的心態和技能，而且還年輕，

1285
01:09:53,360 --> 01:09:57,660
enough in your life or you have enough focused time that you think you can learn selling
或者你有足夠的專注時間，你認為你可以學會銷售，

1286
01:09:57,660 --> 01:10:01,660
and you have some natural characteristics for your good salesperson, then you can double
而且你具備一些成為好銷售員的天賦，那麼你就可以加倍

1287
01:10:01,660 --> 01:10:02,660
down on those.
努力。

1288
01:10:02,660 --> 01:10:06,500
Now, your sales skills could be in a different than traditional domain.
現在，你的銷售技巧可能與傳統領域不同。

1289
01:10:06,500 --> 01:10:10,060
So for example, let's say you're a really good engineer and then people are saying, "Well,
所以，例如，假設你是一個非常好的工程師，然後人們說：「嗯，

1290
01:10:10,060 --> 01:10:11,340
now you need to be good at sales."
現在你需要擅長銷售。」

1291
01:10:11,340 --> 01:10:15,580
Well, you may not be good at hand-to-hand sales but you may be a really good writer.
嗯，你可能不擅長面對面的銷售，但你可能是一個非常好的作家。

1292
01:10:15,580 --> 01:10:20,420
And writing is a skill that can be learned much more easily than say in-person selling.
而寫作是一項比面對面銷售更容易學會的技能。

1293
01:10:20,420 --> 01:10:25,700
And so you may just cultivate writing skills until you become a good online communicator
所以你可能只需要培養寫作技巧，直到你成為一個好的線上溝通者，

1294
01:10:25,700 --> 01:10:27,940
and then use that for your sales.
然後把它用在你的銷售上。

1295
01:10:27,940 --> 01:10:32,300
On the other hand, it could just be that you're a good builder and you're bad at writing and
另一方面，也可能你是一個好的建造者，但不擅長寫作，

1296
01:10:32,300 --> 01:10:35,540
you don't like communicate to mass audiences but you're good one-on-one.
而且你不喜歡對大眾溝通，但你擅長一對一。

1297
01:10:35,540 --> 01:10:39,280
So then you might use your sales skills for recruiting or for fundraising which are more
所以你或許可以將你的銷售技巧用於招聘或籌款，那些更

1298
01:10:39,280 --> 01:10:41,220
one-on-one kinds of endeavors.
是一對一的努力。

1299
01:10:41,220 --> 01:10:45,500
This is pointing out that if you're at the intersection of these two, don't despair because
這指出，如果你處於這兩者的交集，不要絕望，因為

1300
01:10:45,500 --> 01:10:49,780
you're not going to be the best technologist and you're not going to be the best salesperson
你不會成為最好的技術專家，也不會成為最好的銷售員，

1301
01:10:49,780 --> 01:10:54,660
but in a weird way that combination back to the Scott Adams skill stack, that combination
但在某種奇怪的方式下，那種組合，回到 Scott Adams 的技能組合，那種組合

1302
01:10:54,660 --> 01:10:57,060
of two is unstoppable.
是勢不可擋的。

1303
01:10:57,060 --> 01:11:02,700
Long-term people who understand the underlying product and how to build it and can sell it,
長期來看，了解底層產品、如何建造並能銷售它的人，

1304
01:11:02,700 --> 01:11:04,620
these are catnip to investors.
對投資者來說簡直是貓薄荷。

1305
01:11:04,620 --> 01:11:08,580
These people can break down walls if they have enough energy and they can get almost anything
這些人如果精力充沛，就能打破障礙，他們幾乎能完成任何

1306
01:11:08,580 --> 01:11:09,580
done.
事情。

1307
01:11:09,580 --> 01:11:13,500
If you could only pick one to be good at, which one would you pick?
如果你只能選擇一項來擅長，你會選哪一項？

1308
01:11:13,500 --> 01:11:17,660
When you're trying to stand up from the noise, building is actually better because there's
當你試圖從噪音中脫穎而出時，建造其實更好，因為有

1309
01:11:17,660 --> 01:11:21,340
so many hustlers and salespeople who have nothing to back them up.
太多的騙子和銷售員沒有任何實質支持。

1310
01:11:21,340 --> 01:11:26,740
When you're starting out, when you're trying to be recognized, building is better but much
在你剛開始時，當你試圖被認可時，建造更好，但很久

1311
01:11:26,740 --> 01:11:31,860
later down the line, building gets exhausting because it is a focused job and it's hard
之後，建造會變得令人筋疲力竭，因為它是一項專注的工作，而且很難

1312
01:11:31,860 --> 01:11:36,260
to stay current because there's always new people, new products coming up who have newer
保持最新狀態，因為總有新人、新產品出現，他們有更新的

1313
01:11:36,260 --> 01:11:41,860
tools and frankly more time because it's very intense, it's a very focused task.
工具，坦白說也更有時間，因為它非常緊湊，是一項非常專注的任務。

1314
01:11:41,860 --> 01:11:44,660
Sales skills actually scale better over time.
銷售技巧實際上隨著時間的推移更容易擴展。

1315
01:11:44,660 --> 01:11:48,580
For example, if you have a reputation for building a great product, that's good but
例如，如果你有建造優質產品的聲譽，那很好，但

1316
01:11:48,580 --> 01:11:52,340
when you ship your new product, I'm going to evaluate it based on the product but if
當你推出新產品時，我會根據產品來評估它，但如果

1317
01:11:52,340 --> 01:11:56,900
you have a reputation for being a good person to do business with and you're persuasive
你有一個良好商業夥伴的聲譽，而且你很有說服力，

1318
01:11:56,900 --> 01:12:01,500
and communicative, then that reputation almost becomes self-fulfilling.
也善於溝通，那麼那個聲譽幾乎會自我實現。

1319
01:12:01,500 --> 01:12:06,100
I think if you only had to pick one, you can start with building and then transition to
我想如果你只能選一個，你可以從建造開始，然後轉向

1320
01:12:06,100 --> 01:12:07,100
selling.
銷售。

1321
01:12:07,100 --> 01:12:11,020
This is a cop-out answer but I think that is actually the right answer.
這是一個逃避責任的答案，但我認為這其實是正確的答案。

1322
01:12:11,020 --> 01:12:17,660
Before we go and talk about accountability and leverage and judgment, you've got a few
在我們談論責任、槓桿和判斷之前，你有一些

1323
01:12:17,660 --> 01:12:23,300
tweets further down the line that I would put in the category of continuous learning.
更後面的推文，我會把它們歸類到「持續學習」。

1324
01:12:23,300 --> 01:12:27,980
They're essentially, there is no skill called business, avoid business magazines and business
它們基本上是，沒有一種技能叫商業，避免看商業雜誌和商業

1325
01:12:27,980 --> 01:12:34,780
class, study microeconomics, game theory, psychology, persuasion, ethics, mathematics
課程，學習微觀經濟學、賽局理論、心理學、說服、倫理、數學

1326
01:12:34,780 --> 01:12:36,540
and computers.
和電腦。

1327
01:12:36,540 --> 01:12:40,100
There's one other comment that you made in a periscope that was you should be able to
你在一個 Periscope 中還有另一個評論，那就是你應該能夠

1328
01:12:40,100 --> 01:12:45,540
pick up any book in the library and read it and the last tweet in this category was "reading
拿起圖書館裡的任何一本書來讀，而這個類別的最後一則推文是「閱讀

1329
01:12:45,540 --> 01:12:49,020
is faster than listening, doing is faster than watching".
比聽快，做比看快」。

1330
01:12:49,020 --> 01:12:53,980
Yeah, the most important tweet on this I don't even have in here unfortunately which is the
是的，關於這個最重要的推文，很不幸我這裡沒有，那就是

1331
01:12:53,980 --> 01:12:56,740
foundation of learning is reading.
學習的基礎是閱讀。

1332
01:12:56,740 --> 01:13:01,820
I don't know a smart person who doesn't read and read all the time and the problem is what
我不認識一個聰明的人不閱讀，而且一直閱讀，問題是

1333
01:13:01,820 --> 01:13:05,580
do I read, how do I read because for most people it's a struggle, it's a chore.
我該讀什麼，我該怎麼讀，因為對大多數人來說，這是一種掙扎，一種苦差事。

1334
01:13:05,580 --> 01:13:09,220
So the most important thing is just to learn how to educate yourself and the way to educate
所以最重要的事情就是學會如何自我教育，而自我教育的

1335
01:13:09,220 --> 01:13:11,600
yourself is to develop a love for reading.
方法就是培養對閱讀的熱愛。

1336
01:13:11,600 --> 01:13:16,200
So the tweet that is left out, the one that I was hinting at is "read what you love until
所以被遺漏的那則推文，我暗示的那則，是「讀你所愛，直到

1337
01:13:16,200 --> 01:13:17,200
you love to read".
你愛上閱讀」。

1338
01:13:17,200 --> 01:13:18,900
It's that simple.
就這麼簡單。

1339
01:13:18,900 --> 01:13:23,860
Everybody I know who reads a lot loves to read and they love to read because they read
我認識的每個大量閱讀的人都熱愛閱讀，而他們熱愛閱讀是因為他們閱讀

1340
01:13:23,860 --> 01:13:24,860
books that they loved.
他們熱愛的書籍。

1341
01:13:24,860 --> 01:13:29,940
It's a little bit of a catch-22 but you want to start off just reading wherever you are
這有點像一個兩難的局面，但你希望從你所在的任何地方開始閱讀，

1342
01:13:29,940 --> 01:13:33,700
and then keep building up from there until reading becomes a habit and then eventually
然後從那裡不斷累積，直到閱讀成為一種習慣，然後最終

1343
01:13:33,700 --> 01:13:35,900
you will just get bored of the simple stuff.
你會對簡單的東西感到厭煩。

1344
01:13:35,900 --> 01:13:39,900
So you may start off reading fiction, then you might graduate to science fiction, then
所以你可能會從小說開始閱讀，然後你可能會進階到科幻小說，然後

1345
01:13:39,900 --> 01:13:44,740
you may graduate to non-fiction, then you may graduate to science or philosophy or mathematics
你可能會進階到非小說，然後你可能會進階到科學、哲學或數學，

1346
01:13:44,740 --> 01:13:49,980
or whatever it is but take your natural path and just read the things that interest you
或者任何其他東西，但走你自然的道路，只讀你感興趣的東西，

1347
01:13:49,980 --> 01:13:53,840
until you understand them and then you'll naturally move to the next thing and the next
直到你理解它們，然後你自然會轉向下一件事、再下一件事。

1348
01:13:53,840 --> 01:13:55,060
thing and the next thing.
事和下一件事。

1349
01:13:55,060 --> 01:13:59,140
Now there is an exception to this which is where I was hinting with what things you actually
現在有一個例外，也就是我暗示你真正

1350
01:13:59,140 --> 01:14:04,540
do want to learn which is at some point there's too much out there to read and even reading
想學的東西，那就是在某個時間點，有太多的東西要讀，甚至閱讀

1351
01:14:04,540 --> 01:14:05,660
is full of junk.
也充滿了垃圾。

1352
01:14:05,660 --> 01:14:09,260
There are actually things you can read especially early on that will program your brain a certain
實際上有些東西你可以讀，特別是在早期，它們會以某種方式編程你的大腦，

1353
01:14:09,260 --> 01:14:13,700
way and then later things that you read you will decide whether those things are true
然後之後你讀的東西，你會根據早期的東西來決定那些東西是真

1354
01:14:13,700 --> 01:14:16,020
or false based on the earlier things.
是假。

1355
01:14:16,020 --> 01:14:21,260
So it is important that you read foundational things and foundational things I would say
所以閱讀基礎性的東西很重要，而基礎性的東西我會說

1356
01:14:21,260 --> 01:14:25,860
are the original books in a given field that are very scientific in their nature.
是在某個領域中，本質上非常科學的原著。

1357
01:14:25,860 --> 01:14:30,720
So for example instead of reading a business book, pick up Adam Smith's The Wealth of Nations.
例如，與其讀一本商業書籍，不如拿起亞當·史密斯的《國富論》。

1358
01:14:30,720 --> 01:14:35,460
Instead of reading a book on biology or evolution that's written today, I would pick up Darwin's
與其閱讀今天寫的關於生物學或演化的書籍，我會選擇達爾文的

1359
01:14:35,460 --> 01:14:37,060
Origin of the Species.
《物種起源》。

1360
01:14:37,060 --> 01:14:41,180
Instead of reading a book on biotech right now that may be very advanced, I would just
與其現在讀一本關於生物科技的書，那可能非常先進，我會選擇

1361
01:14:41,180 --> 01:14:44,520
pick up The Eighth Day of Creation by Watson and Crick.
華生與克里克的《創世紀第八天》。

1362
01:14:44,520 --> 01:14:48,580
Instead of reading advanced books on what cosmology and what Neil deGrasse Tyson and
與其閱讀關於宇宙學、尼爾·德葛拉司·泰森和

1363
01:14:48,580 --> 01:14:53,040
Stephen Hawking have been saying, you can pick up Richard Feynman's Six Easy Pieces
史蒂芬·霍金所說的進階書籍，你可以拿起理查·費曼的《六堂輕鬆的物理課》

1364
01:14:53,040 --> 01:14:54,800
and start with basic physics.
從基礎物理開始。

1365
01:14:54,800 --> 01:14:59,780
If you understand the basics especially in mathematics and physics and sciences, then
如果你了解基礎知識，特別是數學、物理和科學，那麼

1366
01:14:59,780 --> 01:15:01,860
you will not be afraid of any book.
你將不會害怕任何書籍。

1367
01:15:01,860 --> 01:15:07,340
All of us have that memory of when we're sitting in class and we're learning mathematics and
我們都有這樣的記憶，當我們坐在課堂上學習數學，

1368
01:15:07,340 --> 01:15:12,020
it was all logical and all made sense until at one point the class moved too fast and
一切都是邏輯的，都有道理，直到某個時間點，課程進度太快，

1369
01:15:12,020 --> 01:15:13,380
we fell behind.
我們落後了。

1370
01:15:13,380 --> 01:15:18,180
And then after that we were left memorizing equations, memorizing concepts without being
然後之後，我們就只剩下背誦方程式、背誦概念，而無法

1371
01:15:18,180 --> 01:15:20,220
able to derive them from first principles.
從第一原理推導它們。

1372
01:15:20,220 --> 01:15:24,380
At that moment we're lost because unless you're a professional mathematician, you're not going
在那一刻我們就迷失了，因為除非你是專業的數學家，否則你不會

1373
01:15:24,380 --> 01:15:25,700
to remember those things.
記得那些東西。

1374
01:15:25,700 --> 01:15:28,540
All you're going to remember are the techniques, the foundations.
你只會記得技巧、基礎。

1375
01:15:28,540 --> 01:15:33,180
So you have to make sure that you're building on a steel frame of understanding because
所以你必須確保你建立在一個鋼鐵般的理解框架之上，因為

1376
01:15:33,180 --> 01:15:37,900
you're putting together a foundation for a skyscraper and you're not just memorizing
你正在為一座摩天大樓打下基礎，而不只是記憶

1377
01:15:37,900 --> 01:15:41,100
things because if you're just memorizing things, you're lost.
東西，因為如果你只是記憶東西，你就迷失了。

1378
01:15:41,100 --> 01:15:43,300
So the foundations are ultra important.
所以基礎極其重要。

1379
01:15:43,300 --> 01:15:47,620
And the ultimate, the ultimate is when you walk into a library and you look at it up
而最終極的，最終極的是當你走進圖書館，從頭到尾

1380
01:15:47,620 --> 01:15:50,480
and down and you don't fear any book.
看過一遍，而你不害怕任何一本書。

1381
01:15:50,480 --> 01:15:53,140
You know that you can take any book off the shelf.
你知道你可以從書架上拿起任何一本書。

1382
01:15:53,140 --> 01:15:54,180
You can read it.
你可以閱讀它。

1383
01:15:54,180 --> 01:15:55,660
You can understand it.
你可以理解它。

1384
01:15:55,660 --> 01:15:57,340
You can absorb what is true.
你可以吸收真實的東西。

1385
01:15:57,340 --> 01:16:02,260
You can reject what is false and you have a basis for even working that out that is
你可以拒絕虛假的，而且你有一個基礎來分辨它，那是

1386
01:16:02,260 --> 01:16:06,100
logical and scientific and not purely just based on opinions.
合乎邏輯和科學的，而不只是基於意見。

1387
01:16:06,100 --> 01:16:11,080
The beauty of the internet is the entire library of Alexandria times 10 is at your fingertips
網際網路的美妙之處在於，整個亞歷山大圖書館的十倍內容都在你的指尖

1388
01:16:11,080 --> 01:16:12,580
at all times.
隨時可得。

1389
01:16:12,580 --> 01:16:16,680
It's not the means of education or the means of learning are scarce.
不是教育的方法或學習的方法稀少。

1390
01:16:16,680 --> 01:16:18,600
The means of learning are abundant.
學習的方法是豐富的。

1391
01:16:18,600 --> 01:16:21,060
It's the desire to learn that's scarce.
稀少的是學習的慾望。

1392
01:16:21,060 --> 01:16:24,700
So you really have to cultivate that desire and it's not even cultivated, you have to
所以你真的必須培養那種慾望，而且它甚至不是培養出來的，你必須

1393
01:16:24,700 --> 01:16:26,180
not lose it.
不要失去它。

1394
01:16:26,180 --> 01:16:28,060
Children have a natural curiosity.
孩子們有天生的好奇心。

1395
01:16:28,060 --> 01:16:32,140
If you go to a young child whose first learning language, they're pretty much always asking,
如果你去找一個剛開始學語言的幼兒，他們幾乎總是在問：

1396
01:16:32,140 --> 01:16:33,140
what's this?
這是什麼？

1397
01:16:33,140 --> 01:16:34,140
What's that?
那是什麼？

1398
01:16:34,140 --> 01:16:35,140
Why is this?
為什麼是這樣？

1399
01:16:35,140 --> 01:16:36,140
Who's that?
那是誰？

1400
01:16:36,140 --> 01:16:37,140
They're always asking questions.
他們總是在問問題。

1401
01:16:37,140 --> 01:16:41,060
But one of the problems is that schools and our educational system and even our way of
但問題之一是，學校和我們的教育體系，甚至我們的教養方式，

1402
01:16:41,060 --> 01:16:45,500
raising children replaces curiosity with compliance.
用順從取代了好奇心。

1403
01:16:45,500 --> 01:16:49,460
And once you replace the curiosity with the compliance, you get an obedient factory worker
而一旦你用順從取代了好奇心，你就會得到一個順從的工廠工人，

1404
01:16:49,460 --> 01:16:52,040
but you no longer get a creative thinker.
但你再也得不到一個有創造力的思想家。

1405
01:16:52,040 --> 01:16:53,740
And you need creativity.
而你需要創造力。

1406
01:16:53,740 --> 01:16:58,180
You need that ability to feed your own brain to learn whatever you want.
你需要那種能夠餵養自己的大腦，學習任何你想學的東西的能力。

1407
01:16:58,180 --> 01:17:02,420
And to me, foundational things are principles.
而對我來說，基礎性的東西就是原則。

1408
01:17:02,420 --> 01:17:03,840
They're algorithms.
它們是演算法。

1409
01:17:03,840 --> 01:17:07,900
They're deep-seated logical understanding where you can defend it or attack it from
它們是根深蒂固的邏輯理解，你可以從任何

1410
01:17:07,900 --> 01:17:09,140
any angle.
角度來辯護或攻擊它。

1411
01:17:09,140 --> 01:17:14,080
And that's why microeconomics is important because macroeconomics, a lot of memorization,
這就是為什麼微觀經濟學很重要，因為宏觀經濟學，有很多的記憶，

1412
01:17:14,080 --> 01:17:18,100
a lot of macro bullshit, as Nassim Taleb says, it is easier to macro bullshit than it is to
很多宏觀的胡說八道，就像 Nassim Taleb 說的，宏觀的胡說八道比

1413
01:17:18,100 --> 01:17:23,340
micro bullshit because macroeconomics is voodoo complex science meets politics.
微觀的胡說八道更容易，因為宏觀經濟學是巫毒複雜的科學遇上政治。

1414
01:17:23,340 --> 01:17:28,020
You can't find two macroeconomists to agree on anything these days and different macroeconomists
你現在找不到兩個宏觀經濟學家能就任何事達成一致，而不同的宏觀經濟學家

1415
01:17:28,020 --> 01:17:31,220
get used by different politicians to peddle their different pet theories.
被不同的政治人物用來兜售他們不同的寵物理論。

1416
01:17:31,220 --> 01:17:34,860
There are even macroeconomists out there now peddling something called modern monetary
現在甚至有些宏觀經濟學家在兜售一種叫做「現代貨幣」的東西，

1417
01:17:34,860 --> 01:17:38,660
theory, which says, "Hey, except for this pesky thing called inflation, we can just
理論，它說：「嘿，除了這個叫通貨膨脹的討厭東西，我們可以

1418
01:17:38,660 --> 01:17:40,260
print all the money that we want."
隨便印錢。」

1419
01:17:40,260 --> 01:17:43,740
Yes, except for this pesky thing called inflation.
是的，除了這個叫通貨膨脹的討厭東西。

1420
01:17:43,740 --> 01:17:48,380
That's like saying instead of limited energy, we can fire rockets off into space all day
那就像說，與其說能量有限，我們不如整天向太空發射火箭。

1421
01:17:48,380 --> 01:17:49,380
long.
很久。

1422
01:17:49,380 --> 01:17:50,380
It's just nonsense.
這根本是胡說八道。

1423
01:17:50,380 --> 01:17:54,780
But the fact that there are people who have macroeconomists in their title and are peddling
但事實上，有些人掛著宏觀經濟學家的頭銜，卻在兜售

1424
01:17:54,780 --> 01:17:59,020
modern monetary theory just tells you that macroeconomics as a so-called science has
現代貨幣理論，這正告訴你，宏觀經濟學作為一門所謂的科學，已經

1425
01:17:59,020 --> 01:18:00,020
been corrupted.
被腐化了。

1426
01:18:00,020 --> 01:18:01,580
It's a blanch of politics.
這是一種政治的粉飾。

1427
01:18:01,580 --> 01:18:04,180
So you really want to focus on the foundations.
所以你真的需要專注於基礎。

1428
01:18:04,180 --> 01:18:07,580
The ultimate foundation are mathematics and logic.
最終的基礎是數學和邏輯。

1429
01:18:07,580 --> 01:18:12,140
If you understand logic and mathematics, then you have the basis for understanding scientific
如果你了解邏輯和數學，那麼你就有了理解科學

1430
01:18:12,140 --> 01:18:13,140
method.
方法的基礎。

1431
01:18:13,140 --> 01:18:18,300
Once you understand the scientific method, then you can understand how to separate truth
一旦你理解了科學方法，你就能理解如何將真相

1432
01:18:18,300 --> 01:18:21,420
from falsehood in other fields and other things that you're reading.
與其他領域和其他你閱讀的東西中的謊言分開。

1433
01:18:21,420 --> 01:18:24,140
So be very careful about reading other people's opinions.
所以要非常小心閱讀別人的意見。

1434
01:18:24,140 --> 01:18:31,060
And even be careful about reading facts because so-called facts are often just opinions but
甚至要小心閱讀事實，因為所謂的事實往往只是意見，但

1435
01:18:31,060 --> 01:18:32,620
with a veneer around them.
有一層外衣包圍著它們。

1436
01:18:32,620 --> 01:18:34,620
What you really are looking for is algorithms.
你真正尋找的是演算法。

1437
01:18:34,620 --> 01:18:36,980
What you're really looking for is understanding.
你真正尋找的是理解。

1438
01:18:36,980 --> 01:18:42,820
It's better to go through a book really slowly and struggle and stumble and rewind than it
慢慢地讀一本書，掙扎、跌跌撞撞、倒帶，比

1439
01:18:42,820 --> 01:18:45,660
is to fly through it quickly and say, "Well, now I've read 20 books.
快快地瀏覽一遍，然後說：「嗯，我現在讀了 20 本書。」要好。

1440
01:18:45,660 --> 01:18:46,660
I've read 30 books.
我讀了 30 本書。

1441
01:18:46,660 --> 01:18:48,160
I've read 50 books in the field."
我在這個領域讀了 50 本書。」

1442
01:18:48,160 --> 01:18:52,900
It's like Bruce Lee said, "I don't fear the man who knows a thousand kicks and a thousand
就像李小龍說的：「我不怕會一千種踢腿和一千種

1443
01:18:52,900 --> 01:18:53,900
punches.
拳擊的人。

1444
01:18:53,900 --> 01:18:58,940
I fear the man who's practiced one punch 10,000 times or one kick 10,000 times."
我怕的是練過一萬次一拳或一萬次一踢的人。」

1445
01:18:58,940 --> 01:19:04,340
It's the understanding that comes through repetition and through usage and through logic
正是透過重複、使用和邏輯

1446
01:19:04,340 --> 01:19:08,060
and foundations that really makes you a smart thinker.
以及基礎而來的理解，真正讓你成為一個聰明的思想家。

1447
01:19:08,060 --> 01:19:13,500
To lay a foundation for learning for the rest of your life, I think you need two things
為了為你的餘生奠定學習的基礎，我認為你需要兩樣東西，

1448
01:19:13,500 --> 01:19:15,780
if I was going to try and sum it up.
如果我要試著總結一下。

1449
01:19:15,780 --> 01:19:22,820
One, practical persuasion and two, you need to go deep in some technical category whether
一、實用的說服力；二、你需要深入某個技術領域，無論

1450
01:19:22,820 --> 01:19:30,100
it's abstract math or you want to read Donald Knuth's books on algorithms or you want to
是抽象數學，還是你想讀 Donald Knuth 的演算法書籍，或者你想

1451
01:19:30,100 --> 01:19:33,760
read Feynman's lectures on physics.
讀費曼的物理講義。

1452
01:19:33,760 --> 01:19:41,260
If you have practical persuasion and a deep understanding of some complex topic, I think
如果你有實用的說服力和對某個複雜主題的深刻理解，我認為

1453
01:19:41,260 --> 01:19:45,260
you'll have a great foundation for learning for the rest of your life.
你將為餘生的學習奠定良好的基礎。

1454
01:19:45,260 --> 01:19:49,740
Yeah, if I could expand that a little bit, I would say that the five most important skills
是的，如果我可以稍微擴展一下，我會說最重要的五項技能

1455
01:19:49,740 --> 01:19:55,580
are of course reading, writing, arithmetic, and then as you are adding in persuasion,
當然是閱讀、寫作、算術，然後就像你加入的說服力，

1456
01:19:55,580 --> 01:20:00,140
which is talking, and then finally I would add computer programming just because it's
也就是說話，然後最後我會加上電腦程式設計，就因為它

1457
01:20:00,140 --> 01:20:04,460
an applied form of arithmetic that just gets you so much leverage for free in any domain
是一種應用的算術，它讓你免費獲得巨大的槓桿，在任何你

1458
01:20:04,460 --> 01:20:05,780
that you operate in.
運作的領域。

1459
01:20:05,780 --> 01:20:10,940
If you're good with computers, if you're good at basic mathematics, if you're good at writing,
如果你擅長電腦、基礎數學、寫作，

1460
01:20:10,940 --> 01:20:15,780
if you're good at speaking, and if you like reading, you're set for life.
如果你擅長說話，而且你喜歡閱讀，你就一生無憂了。

1461
01:20:15,780 --> 01:20:18,500
So in that sense, business to me is bottom of the barrel.
所以在那個意義上，對我來說商業是墊底的。

1462
01:20:18,500 --> 01:20:20,660
There's no actual skill called business.
沒有一種真正的技能叫做商業。

1463
01:20:20,660 --> 01:20:22,260
It's too generic of a thing.
它太籠統了。

1464
01:20:22,260 --> 01:20:25,460
It's like a skill called relating, like relating to humans.
就像一種叫做「關係」的技能，像是與人建立關係。

1465
01:20:25,460 --> 01:20:26,460
That's not a skill.
那不是一種技能。

1466
01:20:26,460 --> 01:20:27,460
It's too broad.
它太寬泛了。

1467
01:20:27,460 --> 01:20:30,900
There's a lot of what goes on in business schools, and there's some very intelligent stuff taught
商學院裡有很多東西，也教一些非常聰明的東西，

1468
01:20:30,900 --> 01:20:31,900
in business schools.
在商學院。

1469
01:20:31,900 --> 01:20:34,860
I don't mean to distract from them completely, but some of the stuff that's taught in business
我不是要完全否定它們，但商學院教的一些東西

1470
01:20:34,860 --> 01:20:36,660
school is essentially just anecdotes.
基本上只是軼事。

1471
01:20:36,660 --> 01:20:39,340
They call it case studies, but it's just anecdotes.
他們稱之為案例研究，但那只是軼事。

1472
01:20:39,340 --> 01:20:43,100
And they're trying to help you pattern match by throwing lots of data points at you, but
他們試圖透過向你拋出大量的數據點來幫助你進行模式匹配，但

1473
01:20:43,100 --> 01:20:48,260
the reality is you'll never understand them fully until you're actually in that position
事實是你永遠無法完全理解它們，直到你真正處於那個

1474
01:20:48,260 --> 01:20:49,680
yourself.
位置上。

1475
01:20:49,680 --> 01:20:54,340
Even then, you will find that basic concepts from game theory and psychology and ethics
即使到那時，你會發現來自賽局理論、心理學和倫理學的基礎概念，

1476
01:20:54,340 --> 01:20:58,300
and mathematics and computers and logic will serve you much, much better.
以及數學、電腦和邏輯，將會對你有更大的幫助。

1477
01:20:58,300 --> 01:21:00,300
So I would focus on the foundations.
所以我會專注於基礎。

1478
01:21:00,300 --> 01:21:02,060
I would focus with a science bent.
我會以科學的角度來專注。

1479
01:21:02,060 --> 01:21:06,380
I would develop a love for reading, including by reading so-called junk food that you're
我會培養對閱讀的熱愛，包括閱讀那些你不應該讀的所謂「垃圾食物」。

1480
01:21:06,380 --> 01:21:07,380
not supposed to read.
不該讀。

1481
01:21:07,380 --> 01:21:09,540
You don't have to read the classics.
你不必讀經典。

1482
01:21:09,540 --> 01:21:12,580
That is the foundation for your self-education.
那才是你自我教育的基礎。

1483
01:21:12,580 --> 01:21:17,380
What did you mean when you said that doing is faster than watching?
你說「做比看快」是什麼意思？

1484
01:21:17,380 --> 01:21:21,260
When it comes to your learning curve, if you want to optimize your learning curve, one of
當談到你的學習曲線，如果你想優化你的學習曲線，

1485
01:21:21,260 --> 01:21:25,540
the reasons why I don't love podcasts, even though I'm a generator of podcasts, is that
我不喜歡播客的原因之一，即使我是一個播客的創作者，是

1486
01:21:25,540 --> 01:21:27,900
I like to consume my information very quickly.
我喜歡非常快速地消費我的資訊。

1487
01:21:27,900 --> 01:21:31,180
And now I'm a good reader, a fast reader, and I can read very fast, but I can only listen
現在我是一個好的讀者，一個快速的讀者，我可以讀得非常快，但我只能聽

1488
01:21:31,180 --> 01:21:32,180
at a certain speed.
以某種速度。

1489
01:21:32,180 --> 01:21:36,860
I know people listen to 2X, 3X, but everyone sounds like a chipmunk and it's hard to go
我知道有人聽兩倍速、三倍速，但每個人聽起來都像花栗鼠，而且很難

1490
01:21:36,860 --> 01:21:37,860
back.
回去。

1491
01:21:37,860 --> 01:21:38,860
It's hard to highlight.
很難劃重點。

1492
01:21:38,860 --> 01:21:42,060
It's hard to pinpoint snippets and save them in your notebook and so on.
很難精準地找出片段並將它們儲存到你的筆記本等等。

1493
01:21:42,060 --> 01:21:46,580
Similarly, a lot of people think they can become really skilled at something by watching others
同樣地，很多人認為他們可以透過觀看別人做某件事來變得非常熟練，

1494
01:21:46,580 --> 01:21:49,140
do it or even by reading about others doing it.
甚至透過閱讀別人做某件事的文章。

1495
01:21:49,140 --> 01:21:52,580
And going back to business school case studies, that's a classic example.
回到商學院的案例研究，那是一個典型的例子。

1496
01:21:52,580 --> 01:21:56,780
They study other people's businesses, but in reality, you're going to learn a lot more
他們研究別人的企業，但實際上，你會學到更多

1497
01:21:56,780 --> 01:22:00,860
about running a business by operating your own lemonade stand or equivalent or even opening
關於經營企業的知識，是透過經營你自己的檸檬水攤或類似的東西，或者甚至開

1498
01:22:00,860 --> 01:22:03,100
a little retail store down the street.
一家街邊的小零售店。

1499
01:22:03,100 --> 01:22:07,380
That is how you're going to learn on the job because a lot of the subtleties don't express
那就是你將如何在工作中學習，因為很多微妙之處在你實際經營

1500
01:22:07,380 --> 01:22:10,140
themselves until you're actually running the business.
企業之前是不會顯現出來的。

1501
01:22:10,140 --> 01:22:13,340
For example, everyone's now into mental models these days.
例如，現在每個人都喜歡心智模型。

1502
01:22:13,340 --> 01:22:17,260
You go to Farnham Street, you go to Poor Charlie's Almanac, and you can learn all the different
你去 Farnham Street，你去《窮查理的普通常識》，你就能學到所有不同的

1503
01:22:17,260 --> 01:22:18,460
mental models.
心智模型。

1504
01:22:18,460 --> 01:22:20,320
But which ones matter more?
但哪些更重要？

1505
01:22:20,320 --> 01:22:22,620
Which ones do you apply more often?
你更常應用哪些？

1506
01:22:22,620 --> 01:22:24,500
Which ones matter in which circumstances?
哪些在哪些情況下更重要？

1507
01:22:24,500 --> 01:22:26,220
That's actually the hard part.
那才是困難的部分。

1508
01:22:26,220 --> 01:22:31,220
For example, my personal learning has been that the principal agent problem drives so
例如，我個人的學習經驗是，委託代理問題驅動了

1509
01:22:31,220 --> 01:22:32,840
much in this world.
這個世界上很多事情。

1510
01:22:32,840 --> 01:22:34,580
It's an incentives problem.
這是個誘因問題。

1511
01:22:34,580 --> 01:22:38,700
I've learned that tit for tat, iterative prisoner's dilemma is the piece of game theory that is
我學到了以牙還牙、重複的囚徒困境，是賽局理論中

1512
01:22:38,700 --> 01:22:40,140
worth knowing the most.
最值得了解的部分。

1513
01:22:40,140 --> 01:22:42,940
You can literally almost put down the game theory book after that.
之後你幾乎可以把賽局理論的書放下了。

1514
01:22:42,940 --> 01:22:45,940
By the way, the best way to learn game theory is to play lots of games.
順帶一提，學習賽局理論最好的方法就是玩很多遊戲。

1515
01:22:45,940 --> 01:22:47,740
I never even read game theory books.
我從來沒讀過賽局理論的書。

1516
01:22:47,740 --> 01:22:50,180
I consider myself extremely good at game theory.
我認為自己非常擅長賽局理論。

1517
01:22:50,180 --> 01:22:53,700
I've never opened up a game theory book and found a result in there where I was like,
我從來沒有打開過一本賽局理論的書，然後在裡面找到一個結果，讓我心想：

1518
01:22:53,700 --> 01:22:55,540
"Oh yeah, that's common sense to me."
「哦，是的，那對我來說是常識。」

1519
01:22:55,540 --> 01:22:59,340
Because the reason is I just grew up playing all kinds of games and I ran into all kinds
因為原因是我就是從小玩各種遊戲長大，而且我遇到了各種

1520
01:22:59,340 --> 01:23:01,580
of corner cases with all kinds of friends.
各式各樣的朋友的各種極端情況。

1521
01:23:01,580 --> 01:23:03,360
And so it's just second nature to me.
所以這對我來說就像第二天性。

1522
01:23:03,360 --> 01:23:07,100
So you can always learn better by doing on the job.
所以你總是可以透過實踐來學得更好。

1523
01:23:07,100 --> 01:23:12,020
But the doing is a subtle thing that we're doing encapsulates a lot.
但「做」是一件微妙的事，我們做的「做」包含了很多東西。

1524
01:23:12,020 --> 01:23:16,060
So for example, let's say I want to learn how to run a business.
所以，例如，假設我想學習如何經營一家企業。

1525
01:23:16,060 --> 01:23:20,700
If I start a business where I go in every day and I'm doing the same thing, let's say
如果我開了一家店，我每天都進去，做同樣的事情，假設

1526
01:23:20,700 --> 01:23:24,060
I'm running the retail store down the street where I'm stocking the shelves with food and
我經營著街角的零售店，我每天都在貨架上補貨食物和

1527
01:23:24,060 --> 01:23:28,620
liquor every single day, I'm not going to learn that much because I'm repeating things a lot.
酒，我學不到太多，因為我重複做很多事。

1528
01:23:28,620 --> 01:23:31,980
So I'm putting in thousands of hours, but there are thousands of hours doing the same
所以我投入了數千個小時，但那數千個小時都在做同樣的

1529
01:23:31,980 --> 01:23:32,980
thing.
事情。

1530
01:23:32,980 --> 01:23:36,780
Whereas if I was putting in thousands of iterations, that would be different.
然而，如果我投入了數千次迭代，那就不一樣了。

1531
01:23:36,780 --> 01:23:38,780
So the learning curve is across iterations.
所以學習曲線是跨越迭代的。

1532
01:23:38,780 --> 01:23:42,420
So if I was trying new marketing experiments in the store all the time, I was constantly
所以如果我總是在店裡嘗試新的行銷實驗，我會不斷地

1533
01:23:42,420 --> 01:23:44,020
changing out the inventory.
更換庫存。

1534
01:23:44,020 --> 01:23:46,540
I was constantly changing out the branding and the messaging.
我會不斷地更換品牌和訊息。

1535
01:23:46,540 --> 01:23:48,260
I was constantly changing the sign.
我會不斷地更換招牌。

1536
01:23:48,260 --> 01:23:52,580
I was constantly changing the online channels that I was used to drive foot traffic in.
我會不斷地更換我用來吸引客流量的線上管道。

1537
01:23:52,580 --> 01:23:55,420
I was experimenting with being open at different hours.
我會試驗在不同的時間營業。

1538
01:23:55,420 --> 01:23:59,500
If I even had the ability to walk around and talk to other store owners and get in their
如果我甚至有能力四處走走，和其他店家老闆聊天，進入他們的

1539
01:23:59,500 --> 01:24:03,180
books and figure out how they're running their business, it's the number of iterations that
帳本，找出他們如何經營他們的生意，那麼是迭代的次數

1540
01:24:03,180 --> 01:24:04,700
drives a learning curve.
驅動學習曲線。

1541
01:24:04,700 --> 01:24:09,420
So the more iterations you can have, the more shots on goal you can have, the faster you're
所以你能有的迭代次數越多，你能有的嘗試次數越多，你就越快

1542
01:24:09,420 --> 01:24:10,420
going to learn.
學會。

1543
01:24:10,420 --> 01:24:12,500
It's not just about the hours put in.
這不只是關於投入的小時數。

1544
01:24:12,500 --> 01:24:14,620
It's actually a combination of the two.
它實際上是兩者的結合。

1545
01:24:14,620 --> 01:24:20,060
But I think just the way we're built and the way that the world presents itself, the world
但我認為，就我們被建造的方式和世界呈現自己的方式而言，世界

1546
01:24:20,060 --> 01:24:26,480
offers us very easily the opportunity to do the same thing over and over and over again.
很容易地提供我們機會，去重複做同樣的事情。

1547
01:24:26,480 --> 01:24:32,140
But really, we'd be better served if we went off and found ways to do new things from scratch.
但其實，如果我們出去，找到從零開始做新事的方法，我們會過得更好。

1548
01:24:32,140 --> 01:24:36,700
And doing something new the first time is painful because you're wandering into uncertain
而第一次做新的事是痛苦的，因為你在不確定的

1549
01:24:36,700 --> 01:24:39,780
territory and high odds are that you will fail.
領域徘徊，而且你失敗的機率很高。

1550
01:24:39,780 --> 01:24:44,060
So you just have to get very, very comfortable with frequent small failures.
所以你只需要對頻繁的小失敗感到非常、非常自在。

1551
01:24:44,060 --> 01:24:46,700
Nassim Taleb talks about this also.
Nassim Taleb 也談到這個。

1552
01:24:46,700 --> 01:24:53,140
He made his fortune, his wealth, by being a trader who relied upon black swans.
他致富的方式，是成為一個依賴黑天鵝事件的交易員。

1553
01:24:53,140 --> 01:24:57,740
Nassim Taleb made money by essentially losing little bits of money every day.
Nassim Taleb 賺錢的方式，基本上是每天損失一點點錢。

1554
01:24:57,740 --> 01:25:02,360
And then once in a blue moon, he would make a lot of money when the unthinkable happened
然後千載難逢地，當對其他人來說不可思議的事情發生時，他會賺很多錢。

1555
01:25:02,360 --> 01:25:03,700
for other people.
為其他人。

1556
01:25:03,700 --> 01:25:08,700
Whereas most people want to make little bits of money every day and in exchange, they'll
然而大多數人希望每天賺一點錢，作為交換，他們會

1557
01:25:08,700 --> 01:25:12,700
tolerate lots of blow up risk, they'll tolerate going completely bankrupt.
容忍很多爆倉風險，他們會容忍完全破產。

1558
01:25:12,700 --> 01:25:15,340
We're not evolved to bleed a little bit every day.
我們天生就不適合每天流一點血。

1559
01:25:15,340 --> 01:25:18,580
If you're out in the natural environment and you get a cut and you're literally bleeding
如果你在自然環境中，你受了傷，你每天真的在流血，

1560
01:25:18,580 --> 01:25:20,780
a little bit every day, you will eventually die.
你最終會死。

1561
01:25:20,780 --> 01:25:22,420
You have to stop that cut.
你必須止住那個傷口。

1562
01:25:22,420 --> 01:25:26,200
We're evolved for small victories all the time, but that becomes very expensive.
我們天生就是為了不斷地取得小勝利，但那變得非常昂貴。

1563
01:25:26,200 --> 01:25:27,200
That's where the crowd is.
那是群眾所在之處。

1564
01:25:27,200 --> 01:25:28,340
That's where the herd is.
那是羊群所在之處。

1565
01:25:28,340 --> 01:25:31,900
So if you're willing to bleed a little bit every day, but in exchange, you'll win big
所以如果你願意每天流一點血，但作為交換，你會大贏

1566
01:25:31,900 --> 01:25:33,840
later, you'll do better.
之後，你會做得更好。

1567
01:25:33,840 --> 01:25:36,140
That is, by the way, entrepreneurship.
順帶一提，那正是創業精神。

1568
01:25:36,140 --> 01:25:37,420
Entrepreneurs bleed every day.
創業者每天都在流血。

1569
01:25:37,420 --> 01:25:38,420
They're not making money.
他們不賺錢。

1570
01:25:38,420 --> 01:25:39,420
They're losing money.
他們在虧錢。

1571
01:25:39,420 --> 01:25:42,580
They're constantly stressed out all the responsibilities upon them.
他們不斷地承受著所有的責任而感到壓力。

1572
01:25:42,580 --> 01:25:44,340
But when they win, they win big.
但當他們贏的時候，他們大贏。

1573
01:25:44,340 --> 01:25:46,740
On average, they'll make more.
平均來說，他們會賺更多。

1574
01:25:46,740 --> 01:25:50,820
So why don't we jump into accountability, which I thought was pretty interesting.
所以我們為什麼不直接談談「責任」，我認為那非常有趣。

1575
01:25:50,820 --> 01:25:53,280
And I think you have your own unique take on it.
而且我認為你對它有你獨特的見解。

1576
01:25:53,280 --> 01:25:59,660
So the first tweet on accountability was embrace accountability and take business risks under
所以關於「責任」的第一則推文是：擁抱責任，並以

1577
01:25:59,660 --> 01:26:01,220
your own name.
你自己的名義承擔商業風險。

1578
01:26:01,220 --> 01:26:05,420
Society will reward you with responsibility, equity and leverage.
社會將以責任、股權和槓桿來獎勵你。

1579
01:26:05,420 --> 01:26:06,420
Yeah.
是的。

1580
01:26:06,420 --> 01:26:11,140
To get rich, you're going to need leverage and leverage comes in labor, it comes in capital
要致富，你需要槓桿，槓桿來自於勞力、資本，

1581
01:26:11,140 --> 01:26:13,000
or it can come through code or media.
或者它可以來自於程式碼或媒體。

1582
01:26:13,000 --> 01:26:15,940
But most of these like labor and capital, people have to give to you.
但像勞力和資本這些東西，大部分都需要別人給予。

1583
01:26:15,940 --> 01:26:17,900
For labor, somebody has to follow you.
對於勞力，必須有人跟隨你。

1584
01:26:17,900 --> 01:26:22,140
For capital, somebody has to give you money or assets to manage or machines.
對於資本，必須有人給你錢或資產來管理或機器。

1585
01:26:22,140 --> 01:26:25,300
So to get these things, you have to build up credibility and you have to do those under
所以要得到這些東西，你必須建立信譽，而且你必須在

1586
01:26:25,300 --> 01:26:27,940
your own name as much as possible, which is risky.
你自己的名義下盡可能地做，這是有風險的。

1587
01:26:27,940 --> 01:26:30,680
So accountability is a double edged thing.
所以責任是一把雙面刃。

1588
01:26:30,680 --> 01:26:35,540
It allows you to take credit when things go well and to bear the brunt of the failure when
它讓你在事情順利時獲得功勞，在事情不順利時承擔

1589
01:26:35,540 --> 01:26:36,900
things go badly.
失敗的後果。

1590
01:26:36,900 --> 01:26:41,660
So in that sense, people who are stamping their names on things aren't foolish.
所以在那個意義上，那些在事物上烙印自己名字的人並不愚蠢。

1591
01:26:41,660 --> 01:26:43,140
They're just confident.
他們只是有自信。

1592
01:26:43,140 --> 01:26:46,340
Maybe it turns out to be foolish in the end, but if you look at a Kanye or an Oprah or a
也許最終證明是愚蠢的，但如果你看看像肯伊、歐普拉或

1593
01:26:46,340 --> 01:26:50,940
Trump or an Elon or anyone like that, these people can get rich just off their name because
川普、伊隆或任何像那樣的人，這些人光靠他們的名字就能致富，因為

1594
01:26:50,940 --> 01:26:54,220
their name is such powerful branding.
他們的名字就是這麼強大的品牌。

1595
01:26:54,220 --> 01:26:57,580
Regardless of what you think of Trump, you have to realize that the guy was among the
無論你對川普有什麼看法，你都必須意識到，那傢伙是

1596
01:26:57,580 --> 01:27:00,220
best in the world at just branding his name.
世界上最擅長塑造自己品牌的人之一。

1597
01:27:00,220 --> 01:27:01,220
Why would you go to Trump casino?
你為什麼要去川普賭場？

1598
01:27:01,220 --> 01:27:02,900
It used to be because Trump.
過去是因為川普。

1599
01:27:02,900 --> 01:27:05,940
Why would you go to Trump tower because of Trump?
你為什麼要去川普大樓？因為川普。

1600
01:27:05,940 --> 01:27:09,660
When it came time to vote, I think that a lot of voters just went and said Trump, they
到了投票的時候，我想很多選民就直接說「川普」，他們

1601
01:27:09,660 --> 01:27:10,660
recognize the name.
認得這個名字。

1602
01:27:10,660 --> 01:27:12,660
So the name recognition paid off.
所以名字的辨識度得到了回報。

1603
01:27:12,660 --> 01:27:13,660
Same thing with Oprah.
歐普拉也一樣。

1604
01:27:13,660 --> 01:27:16,900
She puts her brand on something, her name on something and it flies off the shelves
她把她的品牌、她的名字放在某樣東西上，那東西就賣光了，

1605
01:27:16,900 --> 01:27:18,700
and it's like instant validator.
就像一個即時的驗證器。

1606
01:27:18,700 --> 01:27:21,660
But these people also take risks for putting their name out there.
但這些人也為把他們的名字公諸於世而承擔風險。

1607
01:27:21,660 --> 01:27:25,940
Obviously Trump is now probably hated by half or more than half of the country and by a
顯然，川普現在可能被全國一半或一半以上的人討厭，而且被

1608
01:27:25,940 --> 01:27:28,500
big chunk of the world because he sticks his name out there.
世界上很大一部分人討厭，因為他把他的名字公諸於世。

1609
01:27:28,500 --> 01:27:32,700
By putting your name out there, you become a celebrity and fame has many, many downsides.
把你的名字公諸於世，你會成為名人，而名譽有很多很多的缺點。

1610
01:27:32,700 --> 01:27:35,980
It's better to be anonymous and rich than to be poor and famous.
匿名而富有，比貧窮而出名要好。

1611
01:27:35,980 --> 01:27:39,420
But even famous and rich has a lot of downsides associated with it.
但即使是出名而富有，也伴隨著很多缺點。

1612
01:27:39,420 --> 01:27:40,860
You're always in the public eye.
你總是在公眾的視線中。

1613
01:27:40,860 --> 01:27:43,140
So accountability is quite important.
所以責任感相當重要。

1614
01:27:43,140 --> 01:27:46,700
When you're working to build a product or you're working in a team or you're working
當你在努力建造一個產品，或者你在一個團隊工作，或者你在一個

1615
01:27:46,700 --> 01:27:51,980
in a business, we are constantly drummed into our heads how important it is to be part of
企業工作時，我們不斷地被灌輸成為一個團隊的一部分是多麼重要，

1616
01:27:51,980 --> 01:27:54,260
a team and absolutely agree with that.
而我絕對同意這一點。

1617
01:27:54,260 --> 01:28:00,260
A lot of our training socially is telling us to not stick our necks out of the crowd.
我們很多的社會訓練都是告訴我們不要出頭。

1618
01:28:00,260 --> 01:28:04,500
Because it's saying that I hear from Australian friends that the tall poppy gets cut.
因為它說，我從澳洲朋友那裡聽說，出頭的椽子先爛。

1619
01:28:04,500 --> 01:28:05,820
Don't stick your neck out.
不要出頭。

1620
01:28:05,820 --> 01:28:11,460
But I would say that actually a really, really well-functioning team is small and has clear
但我要說，一個真正運作良好的團隊，規模小，而且有明確的

1621
01:28:11,460 --> 01:28:14,380
accountability for each of the different portions.
責任劃分。

1622
01:28:14,380 --> 01:28:17,160
So you can say, okay, this person is responsible for building the product.
所以你可以說，好的，這個人負責建造產品。

1623
01:28:17,160 --> 01:28:19,160
This person is responsible for the messaging.
這個人負責訊息傳達。

1624
01:28:19,160 --> 01:28:21,660
This person is responsible for raising money.
這個人負責籌款。

1625
01:28:21,660 --> 01:28:26,940
This person is responsible for the pricing strategy and maybe the online advertising.
這個人負責定價策略，也許還有線上廣告。

1626
01:28:26,940 --> 01:28:30,780
So if somebody screws up, you know exactly who's responsible.
所以如果有人搞砸了，你確切地知道誰該負責。

1627
01:28:30,780 --> 01:28:35,300
While at the same time, if something goes really well, you also know exactly who's responsible.
同時，如果某件事進展得非常順利，你也確切地知道誰是功臣。

1628
01:28:35,300 --> 01:28:39,260
So if you have a small team and you have clearly delineated responsibilities, then you can
所以如果你有一個小團隊，而且你有明確的責任劃分，那麼你就能

1629
01:28:39,260 --> 01:28:41,900
still keep a very high level of accountability.
仍然保持非常高的責任感。

1630
01:28:41,900 --> 01:28:46,420
And accountability is really important because when something succeeds or fails, if it fails,
責任感非常重要，因為當某件事成功或失敗時，如果失敗了，

1631
01:28:46,420 --> 01:28:47,420
everybody points fingers at each other.
每個人都互相指責。

1632
01:28:47,420 --> 01:28:50,180
And if it succeeds, everybody steps forward to take credit.
如果成功了，每個人都搶著邀功。

1633
01:28:50,180 --> 01:28:55,220
And we've all had that experience when we were in school and we got like a group assignment
我們都有過這種經驗，當我們在學校，我們接到一個團體作業

1634
01:28:55,220 --> 01:28:56,220
to do.
去做。

1635
01:28:56,220 --> 01:28:59,300
And there were people in there, there were probably a few people in there who did a lot
裡面有些人，可能有些人做了很多

1636
01:28:59,300 --> 01:29:00,300
of the work.
工作。

1637
01:29:00,300 --> 01:29:02,820
And then there were a few people who just did a lot of grandstanding or positioning
然後有些人只是做了很多炫耀或定位

1638
01:29:02,820 --> 01:29:03,820
to do the work.
的工作。

1639
01:29:03,820 --> 01:29:07,440
So we're all familiar with this from a childhood sense, but it is uncomfortable to talk about.
所以我們從小就對此很熟悉，但談論它很不舒服。

1640
01:29:07,440 --> 01:29:09,380
But clear accountability is important.
但明確的責任制很重要。

1641
01:29:09,380 --> 01:29:11,860
Without accountability, you don't have incentives.
沒有責任，就沒有誘因。

1642
01:29:11,860 --> 01:29:14,300
Without accountability, you can't build credibility.
沒有責任，就無法建立信譽。

1643
01:29:14,300 --> 01:29:15,300
But you take risk.
但你承擔風險。

1644
01:29:15,300 --> 01:29:19,020
So you take risk of failure, you take risk of humiliation, you take risk of failure under
所以你承擔失敗的風險、羞辱的風險、在

1645
01:29:19,020 --> 01:29:23,080
your own name, which, you know, luckily in modern society, there's no more debtors prison
你自己的名義下失敗的風險，幸運的是，在現代社會，再也沒有債務人監獄了，

1646
01:29:23,080 --> 01:29:27,180
and people don't go to jail or get executed for losing other people's money.
人們也不會因為虧掉別人的錢而坐牢或被處決。

1647
01:29:27,180 --> 01:29:31,920
But we're still socially hardwired to not fail in public under our own names.
但我們在社會上仍然被制約，不願在公開場合以自己的名義失敗。

1648
01:29:31,920 --> 01:29:37,420
And the people who have the ability to fail in public under their own names actually gain
而那些有能力在公開場合以自己的名義失敗的人，實際上獲得了

1649
01:29:37,420 --> 01:29:39,020
a lot of power.
很多力量。

1650
01:29:39,020 --> 01:29:41,660
For example, I'll give a personal anecdote.
例如，我會舉一個個人的軼事。

1651
01:29:41,660 --> 01:29:47,280
Up until about 2013, 2014, my public persona was entirely around startups and investing.
直到大約 2013、2014 年，我的公眾形象完全是圍繞著新創和投資。

1652
01:29:47,280 --> 01:29:52,600
And only around 2014, 2015, did I start talking about philosophy and psychological things
而直到 2014、2015 年左右，我才開始談論哲學和心理學的東西

1653
01:29:52,600 --> 01:29:54,020
and broader things.
以及更廣泛的事物。

1654
01:29:54,020 --> 01:29:57,100
And it made me a little nervous because I was doing it under my own name.
這讓我有點緊張，因為我是以我自己的名義做的。

1655
01:29:57,100 --> 01:30:01,060
And there were definitely people in the industry who sent me messages through the back channel
而且業界肯定有人透過私下管道傳訊息給我，

1656
01:30:01,060 --> 01:30:02,060
like what are you doing?
像是你在幹嘛？

1657
01:30:02,060 --> 01:30:03,060
You're ending your career.
你在終結你的事業。

1658
01:30:03,060 --> 01:30:04,060
This is stupid.
這很蠢。

1659
01:30:04,060 --> 01:30:05,060
And I just went with it.
我就順其自然了。

1660
01:30:05,060 --> 01:30:06,060
I took a risk.
我冒了個險。

1661
01:30:06,060 --> 01:30:07,060
Same with crypto early on.
加密貨幣早期也一樣。

1662
01:30:07,060 --> 01:30:08,060
I took a risk.
我冒了個險。

1663
01:30:08,060 --> 01:30:10,560
But when you put your name out there, you take a risk with certain things.
但當你把你的名字公諸於世，你就在某些事情上冒了險。

1664
01:30:10,560 --> 01:30:12,660
You also get to reap the rewards.
你也得到收穫。

1665
01:30:12,660 --> 01:30:14,980
You get the benefits.
你得到好處。

1666
01:30:14,980 --> 01:30:17,660
Accountability is important because that's how you're going to get leverage.
責任感很重要，因為那是你獲得槓桿的方式。

1667
01:30:17,660 --> 01:30:19,280
That's how you're going to get credibility.
那是你獲得信譽的方式。

1668
01:30:19,280 --> 01:30:20,500
It's also how you're going to get equity.
那也是你獲得股權的方式。

1669
01:30:20,500 --> 01:30:22,920
You're going to get a piece of the business.
你會得到一部分的事業。

1670
01:30:22,920 --> 01:30:28,180
When you're negotiating with other people, ultimately, if someone else is making a decision
當你和別人協商時，最終，如果別人決定

1671
01:30:28,180 --> 01:30:33,580
about how to compensate you, that decision will be based on how replaceable you are.
如何補償你，那個決定將會基於你有多可替代。

1672
01:30:33,580 --> 01:30:37,320
And if you have high accountability, that makes you less replaceable.
而如果你有高度的責任感，那會讓你更不可替代。

1673
01:30:37,320 --> 01:30:40,340
And then they have to give you equity, which is a piece of the upside.
然後他們就必須給你股權，也就是上升空間的一部分。

1674
01:30:40,340 --> 01:30:45,380
But equity itself is a good example because equity is also a risk-based instrument.
但股權本身就是一個很好的例子，因為股權也是一種基於風險的工具。

1675
01:30:45,380 --> 01:30:50,700
Equity means you get paid everything after all the people who need guaranteed money are
股權意味著在所有需要保證金的人都得到

1676
01:30:50,700 --> 01:30:51,700
paid back.
償還後，你才能得到報酬。

1677
01:30:51,700 --> 01:30:56,460
So if you look at the hierarchy of capital in a company, the employees get paid first.
所以如果你看看一家公司的資本結構，員工首先得到報酬。

1678
01:30:56,460 --> 01:30:58,140
They get to pay the salary first.
他們優先領薪水。

1679
01:30:58,140 --> 01:31:02,380
Like in the legal proceedings, the salaries are sacrosanct.
就像在法律程序中，薪水是神聖不可侵犯的。

1680
01:31:02,380 --> 01:31:06,100
If you are a board member and the company spends too much money and has back salaries
如果你是董事會成員，而公司花太多錢，有欠薪，

1681
01:31:06,100 --> 01:31:10,420
to pay, the government will go after you personally to pay back the salaries.
政府會個人追討你的欠薪。

1682
01:31:10,420 --> 01:31:13,860
So the employees get the most security.
所以員工得到最多的保障。

1683
01:31:13,860 --> 01:31:18,420
But in exchange for that security, they don't have as much upside.
但作為交換，他們沒有那麼大的上升空間。

1684
01:31:18,420 --> 01:31:23,020
Then next in line would be the debt holders who are maybe the bankers who lend money to
接下來是債務人，他們可能是借錢給

1685
01:31:23,020 --> 01:31:27,460
the company for operations and they need to make their fixed coupon every month or every
公司營運的銀行家，他們需要每個月或每年賺取他們的固定票息。

1686
01:31:27,460 --> 01:31:28,460
year.
年。

1687
01:31:28,460 --> 01:31:30,500
But they don't get much more upside beyond that.
但除此之外，他們沒有太多上升空間。

1688
01:31:30,500 --> 01:31:34,800
Now they might be making 5, 10, 15, 20, 25% a year, but that's where their upside is
現在他們可能每年賺 5%、10%、15%、20%、25%，但他們的上升空間就到

1689
01:31:34,800 --> 01:31:36,020
limited to.
這裡為止了。

1690
01:31:36,020 --> 01:31:38,260
And then finally are the equity holders.
最後是股權持有人。

1691
01:31:38,260 --> 01:31:40,960
And these people are actually going to get most of the upside.
而這些人實際上會得到大部分的上升空間。

1692
01:31:40,960 --> 01:31:44,760
So once the debt holders are paid off and the salaries are paid off, whatever remains
所以一旦債務人得到償還，薪水也發了，剩下的

1693
01:31:44,760 --> 01:31:46,100
goes to them.
就歸他們。

1694
01:31:46,100 --> 01:31:49,860
But if there isn't enough money to pay off the salaries and the debt holders, or if there's
但如果沒有足夠的錢支付薪水和債務人，或者如果

1695
01:31:49,860 --> 01:31:53,500
just enough to pay off the salary and the debt holders, which is what happens with most
只有足夠的錢支付薪水和債務人，而這在大多數

1696
01:31:53,500 --> 01:31:56,720
businesses most of the times, the equity holders get nothing.
企業中大多數時候都會發生，股權持有人什麼也得不到。

1697
01:31:56,720 --> 01:32:00,820
So the equity holders take on greater risk, but then they take on in exchange, they get
所以股權持有人承擔更大的風險，但作為交換，他們得到

1698
01:32:00,820 --> 01:32:02,540
nearly unlimited upside.
幾乎無限的上升空間。

1699
01:32:02,540 --> 01:32:05,100
And you can do the same with all of your work.
你也可以對你所有的工作做同樣的事。

1700
01:32:05,100 --> 01:32:11,320
So essentially taking accountability for your actions is the same as taking an equity position
所以基本上，為你的行為負責就等於在你所有的工作中持有

1701
01:32:11,320 --> 01:32:12,500
in all of your work.
股權。

1702
01:32:12,500 --> 01:32:16,640
You're essentially taking greater downside risk and greater upside risk.
你基本上是承擔更大的下降風險和更大的上升風險。

1703
01:32:16,640 --> 01:32:20,580
But realize that in modern society, the downside risk is not that large.
但要意識到，在現代社會，下降風險並不大。

1704
01:32:20,580 --> 01:32:24,980
Even personal bankruptcy can wipe the debts clean in good ecosystems.
即使是個人破產，在良好的生態系統中也能清償債務。

1705
01:32:24,980 --> 01:32:28,660
I'm most familiar with Silicon Valley, but generally people will forgive failures as
我對矽谷最熟悉，但一般來說，人們會原諒失敗，只要

1706
01:32:28,660 --> 01:32:31,900
long as you are honest and made a high integrity effort.
你誠實並做出高誠信的努力。

1707
01:32:31,900 --> 01:32:35,180
So there's not really that much to fear in terms of failure.
所以在失敗方面，其實沒有太多好害怕的。

1708
01:32:35,180 --> 01:32:39,700
And so people should be taking on a lot more accountability than they actually are.
所以人們應該承擔比他們實際承擔的多得多的責任。

1709
01:32:39,700 --> 01:32:43,260
Is accountability actually fragile?
責任感真的脆弱嗎？

1710
01:32:43,260 --> 01:32:48,860
Or do you really just mean that we're hardwired not to fail in public so it just feels like
或者你的意思只是我們天生就不願在公開場合失敗，所以感覺

1711
01:32:48,860 --> 01:32:50,420
it's a fragile thing?
它很脆弱？

1712
01:32:50,420 --> 01:32:52,500
I think it could actually be fragile.
我認為它實際上可能很脆弱。

1713
01:32:52,500 --> 01:32:55,420
The example of accountability is you're an airplane pilot.
責任的例子是你是飛機駕駛員。

1714
01:32:55,420 --> 01:32:58,740
As a captain, you're taking on accountability for the entire plane.
作為機長，你為整架飛機承擔責任。

1715
01:32:58,740 --> 01:33:02,860
Let's say that something goes wrong with the aircraft, you can't literally blame it on
假設飛機出了什麼問題，你不能真的怪罪

1716
01:33:02,860 --> 01:33:03,860
anyone else.
任何人。

1717
01:33:03,860 --> 01:33:05,420
You can't blame it on the steward or the stewardess.
你不能怪罪空服員。

1718
01:33:05,420 --> 01:33:07,140
You can't blame it on the co-pilot.
你不能怪罪副駕駛。

1719
01:33:07,140 --> 01:33:08,140
You're the captain.
你是機長。

1720
01:33:08,140 --> 01:33:09,220
You're responsible for the ship.
你為這艘船負責。

1721
01:33:09,220 --> 01:33:13,140
And if you screw up, you crash the ship and there are immediate consequences.
如果你搞砸了，你讓船墜毀，就會有立即的後果。

1722
01:33:13,140 --> 01:33:16,100
In the old days, the captain was expected to go down with the ship.
在過去，船長被期望與船共存亡。

1723
01:33:16,100 --> 01:33:20,660
If the ship was sinking, literally the last person who got to get off was the captain.
如果船正在沉沒，字面上的意思是，最後一個下船的人是船長。

1724
01:33:20,660 --> 01:33:25,140
So yeah, I think accountability does come with real risks, but we're talking about in a business
所以，是的，我認為責任確實伴隨著真正的風險，但我們談論的是在商業

1725
01:33:25,140 --> 01:33:26,140
context.
情境下。

1726
01:33:26,140 --> 01:33:30,020
The risk would be that you would probably be the last one to get your capital back out.
風險在於，你可能會是最後一個拿回你的資本的人。

1727
01:33:30,020 --> 01:33:32,580
You'd be the last one to get paid for your time.
你會是最後一個為你的時間得到報酬的人。

1728
01:33:32,580 --> 01:33:36,960
So the time that you put in, the capital that you put in into the company, these are what
所以你投入的時間，你投入公司的資本，這些都是

1729
01:33:36,960 --> 01:33:38,220
are at risk.
有風險的。

1730
01:33:38,220 --> 01:33:42,700
Even if a business fails and your name's on it, that's not as bad as if it turns out to
即使一個企業失敗了，而你的名字在上面，那也不如它變成

1731
01:33:42,700 --> 01:33:44,100
be an integrity issue.
誠信問題那麼糟糕。

1732
01:33:44,100 --> 01:33:48,620
Like your Bernie Madoff, for example, Madoff Investments, that name is never going to be
例如，像伯尼·馬多夫，馬多夫投資公司，那個名字在投資界永遠不會

1733
01:33:48,620 --> 01:33:50,540
good again in the investment community.
再有好名聲。

1734
01:33:50,540 --> 01:33:53,420
You could be Bernie Madoff's great-great-great-grandson.
你可能是伯尼·馬多夫的曾曾曾孫。

1735
01:33:53,420 --> 01:33:56,900
You are not going to go into the investment business because you ruin the family name.
你不會進入投資業，因為你毀了家族的名聲。

1736
01:33:56,900 --> 01:34:02,220
So I think these days, the accountability risk with the name happens more around integrity
所以，我認為如今，與名字相關的責任風險更多是圍繞著誠信，

1737
01:34:02,220 --> 01:34:05,380
rather than it does around purely economic failure.
而不是純粹的經濟失敗。

1738
01:34:05,380 --> 01:34:12,800
The big takeaway for me on accountability is that you will be rewarded directly in proportion
對我來說，關於責任感最大的收穫是，你的回報將與你的責任感成正比。

1739
01:34:12,800 --> 01:34:14,620
with your accountability.
與你的責任。

1740
01:34:14,620 --> 01:34:20,260
I also think this is why people like Taleb rail against CEOs who get rewards without
我也認為這就是為什麼像 Taleb 這樣的人會抨擊那些沒有

1741
01:34:20,260 --> 01:34:21,260
accountability.
責任卻得到獎勵的執行長。

1742
01:34:21,260 --> 01:34:24,180
Yeah, I mean, Taleb's skin in the game is required reading.
是的，我的意思是，Taleb 的「身先士卒」是必讀的。

1743
01:34:24,180 --> 01:34:29,460
If you want to get anywhere in modern life and understand how modern systems work, then
如果你想在現代生活中有所成就，並理解現代系統如何運作，那麼

1744
01:34:29,460 --> 01:34:31,820
skin in the game would be near top of my list to read.
《親身參與》(skin in the game) 會是我閱讀清單上的首選。

1745
01:34:31,820 --> 01:34:36,660
But yes, accountability, skin in the game, these concepts go very closely hand in hand.
但是，是的，責任感、親身參與，這些概念息息相關。

1746
01:34:36,660 --> 01:34:39,820
I think of accountability as reputational skin in the game.
我認為責任感就是聲譽上的利益攸關。

1747
01:34:39,820 --> 01:34:43,720
It's putting your personal reputation on the line as skin in the game.
這就是把你的個人聲譽當作利益攸關來冒險。

1748
01:34:43,720 --> 01:34:45,080
Accountability is a simple concept.
責任是一個簡單的概念。

1749
01:34:45,080 --> 01:34:49,380
The only part of accountability that may be a little counterintuitive is that we're currently
責任感唯一可能有點反直覺的部分是，我們目前

1750
01:34:49,380 --> 01:34:55,700
socially brainwashed to not take on accountability, not in a visible way.
在社會上被洗腦，不承擔責任，不是以一種可見的方式。

1751
01:34:55,700 --> 01:35:01,100
But I think there are ways to take on accountability where every member of a team can take on accountability
但我認為有一些方法可以承擔責任，讓團隊的每個成員都可以為他們的

1752
01:35:01,100 --> 01:35:02,520
for their portion.
部分承擔責任。

1753
01:35:02,520 --> 01:35:07,080
And that is how you get a well functioning team while still putting credits and losses
這就是你如何得到一個運作良好的團隊，同時仍然將功過

1754
01:35:07,080 --> 01:35:08,820
in the correct columns.
記在正確的欄位。

1755
01:35:08,820 --> 01:35:11,740
So why don't we talk a little bit about leverage.
所以我們為什麼不談談槓桿呢。

1756
01:35:11,740 --> 01:35:16,860
The first tweet in the storm was a famous quote from Mark Hamidi's, which was give
推文風暴的第一則是馬克·哈米迪的一句名言，那是「給我

1757
01:35:16,860 --> 01:35:21,820
me a lever long enough and a place to stand and I will move the earth.
一個足夠長的槓桿和一個支點，我就能移動地球。」

1758
01:35:21,820 --> 01:35:25,940
The next tweet was fortunes require leverage.
下一則推文是：「財富需要槓桿。」

1759
01:35:25,940 --> 01:35:31,820
Business leverage comes from capital, people and products with no marginal cost of replication.
商業槓桿來自於資本、人力和沒有邊際複製成本的產品。

1760
01:35:31,820 --> 01:35:32,980
Leverage is critical.
槓桿是關鍵。

1761
01:35:32,980 --> 01:35:36,900
The reason I stuck an Archimedes quote in there is normally I don't like putting other
我之所以在那裡引用阿基米德的名言，是因為我通常不喜歡把別人的

1762
01:35:36,900 --> 01:35:40,060
people's quotes in my Twitter like that doesn't add any value.
名言放在我的推特上，那樣沒有任何價值。

1763
01:35:40,060 --> 01:35:41,940
You can go look up those people's quotes.
你可以去查那些人的名言。

1764
01:35:41,940 --> 01:35:45,300
But this quote I had to put in there because it's just so fundamental.
但這句名言我必須放進去，因為它太根本了。

1765
01:35:45,300 --> 01:35:49,060
I read it when I was very, very young and it had a huge impression on me.
我很小的時候讀到它，它對我產生了巨大的影響。

1766
01:35:49,060 --> 01:35:53,020
And we all know what leverage is when we use a seesaw or a lever.
我們都知道用蹺蹺板或槓桿時，槓桿是什麼。

1767
01:35:53,020 --> 01:35:55,100
We understand how that works physically.
我們理解那在物理上是如何運作的。

1768
01:35:55,100 --> 01:36:00,420
But I think what our brains aren't really well evolved to comprehend is how much leverage
但我認為我們的大腦還沒有進化到能夠理解在現代社會中，

1769
01:36:00,420 --> 01:36:05,680
is possible in modern society and what the newest forms of leverage are.
有多少槓桿是可能的，以及最新的槓桿形式是什麼。

1770
01:36:05,680 --> 01:36:09,900
And so the oldest form of leverage is labor, which is people working for you.
所以最古老的槓桿形式是勞力，也就是讓人為你工作。

1771
01:36:09,900 --> 01:36:14,060
So instead of me lifting rocks, I can have 10 people lift rocks.
所以與其我搬石頭，我可以讓 10 個人搬石頭。

1772
01:36:14,060 --> 01:36:17,820
Then just by my guidance and where the rocks should go, a lot more rocks get moved than
然後光靠我的指導和石頭應該去哪裡，搬動的石頭就比

1773
01:36:17,820 --> 01:36:19,180
I could do myself.
我一個人搬得多。

1774
01:36:19,180 --> 01:36:22,900
Everybody understands this because we're evolved to understand the labor form of leverage.
每個人都理解這一點，因為我們天生就理解勞力形式的槓桿。

1775
01:36:22,900 --> 01:36:27,260
And so what happens is society overvalues labor as a form of leverage.
所以結果是，社會過度評價勞力作為一種槓桿形式。

1776
01:36:27,260 --> 01:36:30,980
This is why your parents are impressed when you get a promotion and you have lots of people
這就是為什麼當你升遷，手下有很多員工時，你的父母會印象深刻。

1777
01:36:30,980 --> 01:36:32,300
working underneath you.
在你手下工作。

1778
01:36:32,300 --> 01:36:35,460
This is why when a lot of naive people, when you tell them about your company, they'll
這就是為什麼很多天真的人，當你告訴他們你的公司時，他們會

1779
01:36:35,460 --> 01:36:36,660
say how many people work there.
問有多少人在那裡工作。

1780
01:36:36,660 --> 01:36:38,660
They'll use that as a way to establish credibility.
他們會用那個來建立可信度。

1781
01:36:38,660 --> 01:36:41,660
They're trying to measure how much leverage and impact you actually have.
他們試圖衡量你實際上有多大的槓桿作用和影響力。

1782
01:36:41,660 --> 01:36:45,180
Or when someone starts a movement, they'll say how many people they have or how big the
或者當有人發起一個運動時，他們會說他們有多少人，或者軍隊

1783
01:36:45,180 --> 01:36:46,180
army is.
有多大。

1784
01:36:46,180 --> 01:36:49,180
We just automatically assume that more people is better.
我們只是自動地假設人多就是好。

1785
01:36:49,180 --> 01:36:53,780
But I would argue that this is the worst form of leverage that you could possibly use.
但我會說，這是你可能使用的最糟糕的槓桿形式。

1786
01:36:53,780 --> 01:36:55,860
Managing other people is incredibly messy.
管理人非常混亂。

1787
01:36:55,860 --> 01:36:58,340
It requires tremendous leadership skills.
它需要極大的領導技巧。

1788
01:36:58,340 --> 01:37:02,980
You're one short hop from a mutiny or getting eaten or torn apart by the mob.
你離叛變、被吃掉或被暴民撕碎只有一步之遙。

1789
01:37:02,980 --> 01:37:05,100
It's incredibly competed over.
它的競爭非常激烈。

1790
01:37:05,100 --> 01:37:08,260
Entire civilizations have been destroyed over this fight.
整個文明都因為這場戰鬥而被摧毀。

1791
01:37:08,260 --> 01:37:12,860
For example, communism, Marxism is all about the battle between capital and labor.
例如，共產主義、馬克思主義，都是關於資本和勞動之間的鬥爭。

1792
01:37:12,860 --> 01:37:14,720
Das Kapital, das Labor, right?
資本，勞動，對吧？

1793
01:37:14,720 --> 01:37:16,480
So it's a trap.
所以這是個陷阱。

1794
01:37:16,480 --> 01:37:19,220
So you really want to stay out of labor-based leverage.
所以你真的要避開以勞力為基礎的槓桿。

1795
01:37:19,220 --> 01:37:24,020
You want the minimum amount of people working with you that are going to allow you to use
你希望與你一起工作的人數最少，這樣才能讓你使用

1796
01:37:24,020 --> 01:37:27,860
the other forms of leverage, which I would argue are much more interesting.
其他形式的槓桿，我認為那些更有趣。

1797
01:37:27,860 --> 01:37:30,700
The second type of leverage is capital.
第二種槓桿是資本。

1798
01:37:30,700 --> 01:37:35,220
And this one's a little less hardwired into us because large amounts of money moving around
而這個比較沒有那麼根深蒂固，因為大量的金錢流動

1799
01:37:35,220 --> 01:37:37,780
and being saved and being invested in money markets.
、被儲蓄、被投資於貨幣市場。

1800
01:37:37,780 --> 01:37:42,300
These are inventions of human beings in the last few hundred to few thousand years.
這些是人類在過去幾百到幾千年來的發明。

1801
01:37:42,300 --> 01:37:45,220
They're not evolved with us from hundreds of thousands of years.
它們不是從幾十萬年前就和我們一起演化的。

1802
01:37:45,220 --> 01:37:48,300
So we understand them a little bit less well.
所以我們對它們的理解比較不夠。

1803
01:37:48,300 --> 01:37:52,460
They probably require more intelligence to use correctly.
它們可能需要更多的智慧才能正確使用。

1804
01:37:52,460 --> 01:37:55,500
And the ways in which we use them keep changing.
而我們使用它們的方式一直在改變。

1805
01:37:55,500 --> 01:37:59,500
Management skills from 100 years ago might still apply today, but investing in the stock
一百年前的管理技巧今天或許仍然適用，但在股票

1806
01:37:59,500 --> 01:38:03,140
market skills from 100 years ago probably don't apply to the same level today.
市場的投資技巧，一百年前的可能今天就不適用了。

1807
01:38:03,140 --> 01:38:05,580
So capital is a trickier form of leverage to use.
所以資本是一種更棘手的槓桿形式。

1808
01:38:05,580 --> 01:38:06,820
It's more modern.
它更現代。

1809
01:38:06,820 --> 01:38:10,260
It's the one that people have used to get fabulously wealthy in the last century.
這是上個世紀人們用來致富的工具。

1810
01:38:10,260 --> 01:38:13,100
It's probably been the dominant form of leverage in the last century.
它可能是上個世紀最主要的槓桿形式。

1811
01:38:13,100 --> 01:38:14,860
And you can see this by who are the richest people.
你可以從誰是最富有的人看出來。

1812
01:38:14,860 --> 01:38:19,620
It's bankers, politicians in corrupt countries who print money, essentially people who move
是銀行家，是在腐敗國家印鈔票的政治家，基本上是那些移動

1813
01:38:19,620 --> 01:38:21,300
large amounts of money around.
大量金錢的人。

1814
01:38:21,300 --> 01:38:27,180
And if you look at the top of very large companies outside of technology companies in many, many
如果你看看許多非常大的公司，除了科技公司之外，

1815
01:38:27,180 --> 01:38:32,420
large old companies, the CEO job is really a financial job.
許多大型老公司的執行長職位，其實是一個財務工作。

1816
01:38:32,420 --> 01:38:34,620
They're really financial asset managers.
他們其實是金融資產管理者。

1817
01:38:34,620 --> 01:38:38,940
Now sometimes an asset manager can put a pleasant face on it so you get a Warren Buffett type.
現在有時候，一個資產管理者可以裝出一副和藹可親的樣子，所以你會得到一個華倫·巴菲特類型的人物。

1818
01:38:38,940 --> 01:38:45,020
But deep down, I think we all dislike capital as a form of leverage because it feels unfair,
但內心深處，我認為我們都討厭資本作為一種槓桿形式，因為它感覺不公平，

1819
01:38:45,020 --> 01:38:49,780
because it's this invisible thing that can be accumulated and passed across generations
因為它是這種無形的東西，可以被累積並跨代傳遞，

1820
01:38:49,780 --> 01:38:54,680
and suddenly seems to result in people having gargantuan amounts of money with nobody else
而且突然之間似乎導致人們擁有巨額的金錢，而沒有其他人

1821
01:38:54,680 --> 01:38:57,460
kind of around them or necessarily sharing in it.
在他們周圍，或者必然地分享它。

1822
01:38:57,460 --> 01:38:59,660
That said, capital is a powerful form of leverage.
也就是說，資本是一種強大的槓桿形式。

1823
01:38:59,660 --> 01:39:01,020
It can be converted to labor.
它可以被轉換為勞力。

1824
01:39:01,020 --> 01:39:02,960
It can be converted to other things.
它可以被轉換為其他東西。

1825
01:39:02,960 --> 01:39:05,980
It's very surgical, very analytical.
它非常精確，非常分析性。

1826
01:39:05,980 --> 01:39:10,820
If you are a brilliant investor and you have a billion dollars and you can make a 30% return
如果你是一個傑出的投資者，你有一億美元，而且你能用它賺到 30% 的回報，

1827
01:39:10,820 --> 01:39:14,660
with it, whereas anybody else can only make a 20% return, you're going to get all the
而其他人只能賺到 20% 的回報，你將會得到所有的

1828
01:39:14,660 --> 01:39:17,260
money and you're going to get paid very handsomely for it.
錢，而且你會因此得到非常豐厚的報酬。

1829
01:39:17,260 --> 01:39:19,180
It scales very, very well.
它的擴展性非常好。

1830
01:39:19,180 --> 01:39:23,420
If you get good at managing capital, you can manage more and more capital much more easily.
如果你擅長管理資本，你可以更容易地管理越來越多的資本。

1831
01:39:23,420 --> 01:39:25,320
You can manage more and more people.
你可以管理人越來越多。

1832
01:39:25,320 --> 01:39:28,820
So it is a good form of leverage, but the hard part with capital is how do you obtain
所以這是一種很好的槓桿形式，但資本的困難之處在於你如何獲得

1833
01:39:28,820 --> 01:39:29,820
it?
它？

1834
01:39:29,820 --> 01:39:32,800
And that's why I talked about specific knowledge and accountability first.
這就是為什麼我首先談論特定知識和責任。

1835
01:39:32,800 --> 01:39:36,260
If you have specific knowledge in a domain and if you're accountable and you have a good
如果你在某個領域有特定知識，而且你負責任，而且你在那個領域有好的

1836
01:39:36,260 --> 01:39:39,900
name in that domain, then people are going to give you capital as a form of leverage
名聲，那麼人們就會給你資本作為一種槓桿形式，

1837
01:39:39,900 --> 01:39:42,700
that you can use to then go get more capital.
你可以用它來獲得更多的資本。

1838
01:39:42,700 --> 01:39:46,820
But capital also is fairly well understood and I think a lot of the knocks against capitalism
但資本也相當被理解，我認為很多對資本主義的批評

1839
01:39:46,820 --> 01:39:49,980
come because of the accumulation of capital.
都來自於資本的累積。

1840
01:39:49,980 --> 01:39:55,300
The most interesting and the most important form of leverage is this idea of products
最有趣、最重要的一種槓桿形式是這種產品的觀念：

1841
01:39:55,300 --> 01:39:57,700
that have no marginal cost of replication.
它們沒有邊際複製成本。

1842
01:39:57,700 --> 01:39:59,160
This is the new form of leverage.
這是新的槓桿形式。

1843
01:39:59,160 --> 01:40:01,860
This was only invented in the last few hundred years.
這只是在過去幾百年才發明的。

1844
01:40:01,860 --> 01:40:06,540
It got started with the printing press, it accelerated broadcast media, and now it's
它始於印刷機，加速了廣播媒體，現在它

1845
01:40:06,540 --> 01:40:09,060
really blown up with the internet and with code.
真的因為網際網路和程式碼而爆發。

1846
01:40:09,060 --> 01:40:14,780
So now you can multiply your efforts without having to involve other humans and without
所以現在你可以加倍你的努力，而不需要涉及其他人，也不需要

1847
01:40:14,780 --> 01:40:16,620
needing money from other humans.
從其他人那裡得到錢。

1848
01:40:16,620 --> 01:40:19,500
This podcast is a form of leverage.
這個播客是一種槓桿形式。

1849
01:40:19,500 --> 01:40:23,580
Long ago, I would have had to sit in a lecture hall and lecture each of you personally and
很久以前，我必須坐在一個演講廳裡，親自對你們每一個人演講，

1850
01:40:23,580 --> 01:40:26,620
I would have maybe reached a few hundred people and that would have been that.
我可能只能接觸到幾百人，那也就到此為止了。

1851
01:40:26,620 --> 01:40:30,460
Thirty years ago, I would have to be lucky to get on TV, which is somebody else's leverage.
三十年前，我得幸運才能上電視，那是別人的槓桿。

1852
01:40:30,460 --> 01:40:33,220
They would have distorted the message, they would have taken the economics out of it or
他們會扭曲訊息，他們會把經濟學從中拿掉，或者

1853
01:40:33,220 --> 01:40:34,220
charged me for it.
向我收費。

1854
01:40:34,220 --> 01:40:37,620
They would have muddled the message and I would have been lucky to get that form of
他們會把訊息弄得一團糟，而我能得到那種

1855
01:40:37,620 --> 01:40:38,620
leverage.
槓桿就很幸運了。

1856
01:40:38,620 --> 01:40:41,600
But today, thanks to the internet, I can buy a cheap microphone, hook it up to a laptop
但今天，感謝網際網路，我可以買一個便宜的麥克風，把它接到筆記型電腦

1857
01:40:41,600 --> 01:40:44,180
or an iPad and there you are all listening.
或 iPad 上，然後你們都在聽。

1858
01:40:44,180 --> 01:40:48,080
So this newest form of leverage is where all the new fortunes are made.
所以這種最新的槓桿形式是所有新財富的誕生地。

1859
01:40:48,080 --> 01:40:53,300
So all the new billionaires, the last generation fortunes were made by capital, that was the
所以所有的新億萬富翁，上一代的財富是靠資本創造的，那是

1860
01:40:53,300 --> 01:40:59,540
Warren Buffets of the world, but the new generation fortunes are all made through code or media.
世界上的華倫·巴菲特們，但新一代的財富都是透過程式碼或媒體創造的。

1861
01:40:59,540 --> 01:41:03,500
Joe Rogan making 50 to 100 million bucks a year from his podcast.
Joe Rogan 靠他的播客每年賺五千萬到一億美元。

1862
01:41:03,500 --> 01:41:07,260
PewDiePie, I don't know how much money he's rolling in, but he's bigger than the news,
PewDiePie，我不知道他賺了多少錢，但他比新聞還大，

1863
01:41:07,260 --> 01:41:08,260
right?
對吧？

1864
01:41:08,260 --> 01:41:12,660
The Fortnite players, of course, Jeff Bezos and Mark Zuckerberg and Larry Page and Sergey
當然，Fortnite 的玩家，還有 Jeff Bezos 和 Mark Zuckerberg 和 Larry Page 和 Sergey

1865
01:41:12,660 --> 01:41:15,500
Brin and Bill Gates and Steve Jobs.
Brin 和 Bill Gates 和 Steve Jobs。

1866
01:41:15,500 --> 01:41:17,420
That is all code based leverage.
那都是基於程式碼的槓桿。

1867
01:41:17,420 --> 01:41:21,460
Now the beauty is when you combine all of these three, that's where tech startups really
現在，美妙之處在於，當你將這三者結合起來，那才是科技新創真正

1868
01:41:21,460 --> 01:41:27,900
excel, where you take just the minimum but highest output labor that you can get, which
擅長的地方，你只取用最少但最高產出的勞力，也就是

1869
01:41:27,900 --> 01:41:34,420
are engineers and designers, product developers, and then you add in capital, you use that
工程師和設計師、產品開發者，然後你加入資本，你用那個

1870
01:41:34,420 --> 01:41:40,820
for marketing, advertising, scaling, and you add in lots of code and media and podcasts
來行銷、廣告、擴展，然後你加入大量的程式碼、媒體和播客

1871
01:41:40,820 --> 01:41:43,140
and content to get it all out there.
和內容來把它們全部推廣出去。

1872
01:41:43,140 --> 01:41:47,740
That is a magic combination and that's why you see technology startups explode out of
那是一個神奇的組合，這就是為什麼你看到科技新創突然

1873
01:41:47,740 --> 01:41:52,420
nowhere, use massive leverage and just make huge outsize returns.
爆發，利用巨大的槓桿，創造巨大的超額回報。

1874
01:41:52,420 --> 01:41:57,580
Do you want to talk a little bit about permissioned versus permissionless?
你是否想談談有許可和無許可之間的差別？

1875
01:41:57,580 --> 01:42:01,180
Probably the most interesting thing to keep in mind about the new forms of leverage is
關於新的槓桿形式，可能最有趣的一點是

1876
01:42:01,180 --> 01:42:02,180
they are permissionless.
它們是無需許可的。

1877
01:42:02,180 --> 01:42:06,500
They don't require somebody else's permission for you to use them or succeed.
它們不需要別人的許可，你就能使用它們或成功。

1878
01:42:06,500 --> 01:42:09,340
For labor leverage, somebody has to decide to follow you.
對於勞力槓桿，必須有人決定跟隨你。

1879
01:42:09,340 --> 01:42:14,580
For capital leverage, somebody has to give you money to invest or to turn into a product.
對於資本槓桿，必須有人給你錢來投資或轉化為產品。

1880
01:42:14,580 --> 01:42:20,540
But coding, writing books, recording podcasts, tweeting, YouTubing, these kinds of things,
但編碼、寫書、錄製播客、發推特、製作 YouTube 影片，這些事情，

1881
01:42:20,540 --> 01:42:21,940
these are permissionless.
這些都是無需許可的。

1882
01:42:21,940 --> 01:42:26,020
You don't need anyone's permission to do them and that's why they're very egalitarian.
你不需要任何人的許可就能做，這就是為什麼它們非常平等。

1883
01:42:26,020 --> 01:42:30,500
They're great equalizers of leverage and as much as people may rail on Facebook and YouTube,
它們是很好的槓桿均等器，儘管人們可能抨擊 Facebook 和 YouTube，

1884
01:42:30,500 --> 01:42:34,020
they're not going to stop using it because this permissionless leverage where everyone
他們也不會停止使用它，因為這種每個人都可以

1885
01:42:34,020 --> 01:42:36,220
can be a broadcaster is just too good.
成為廣播員的無許可槓桿實在太好了。

1886
01:42:36,220 --> 01:42:41,420
The same way you can rail upon Apple for having a slightly closed ecosystem in the iPhone,
同樣地，你可以抨擊蘋果在 iPhone 上有一個稍微封閉的生態系統，

1887
01:42:41,420 --> 01:42:43,100
but everyone's writing apps for it.
但每個人都在為它寫應用程式。

1888
01:42:43,100 --> 01:42:47,420
So as long as you can write apps for it, you can get rich or reach users doing that, why
所以只要你能為它寫應用程式，你就能致富或接觸到用戶，為什麼

1889
01:42:47,420 --> 01:42:48,420
not?
不呢？

1890
01:42:48,420 --> 01:42:52,340
I think of all the forms of leverage, the best one in modern society and people are going
我認為在所有的槓桿形式中，現代社會最好的一種，人們會

1891
01:42:52,340 --> 01:42:53,340
to, "This is glib.
說：「這太油腔滑調了。

1892
01:42:53,340 --> 01:42:57,060
This is a little overused, but," and this is why I tell people learn to code, right?
這有點被濫用了，但是」，這就是為什麼我告訴人們學寫程式，對吧？

1893
01:42:57,060 --> 01:43:01,300
It's that we have this idea that in the future, there's going to be these robots and they're
就是我們有這樣一種想法，未來會有這些機器人，它們

1894
01:43:01,300 --> 01:43:02,500
going to be doing everything.
會做所有事。

1895
01:43:02,500 --> 01:43:06,140
And that may be true, but I would say the majority of the robot revolution has already
那可能是真的，但我會說，機器人革命的大部分已經

1896
01:43:06,140 --> 01:43:07,140
happened.
發生了。

1897
01:43:07,140 --> 01:43:10,300
The robots are already here and there are way more robots than there are humans.
機器人已經在這裡了，而且機器人比人類多得多。

1898
01:43:10,300 --> 01:43:13,500
It's just that we pack them in data centers for heat and efficiency reasons.
只是我們為了散熱和效率的原因，把它們塞進數據中心。

1899
01:43:13,500 --> 01:43:14,580
We put them in servers.
我們把它們放在伺服器裡。

1900
01:43:14,580 --> 01:43:19,180
They're inside the computers, all the circuits, it's a robot mind inside that's doing all
它們在電腦裡，所有的電路，裡面是一個機器人思維在做

1901
01:43:19,180 --> 01:43:20,180
the work.
所有的工作。

1902
01:43:20,180 --> 01:43:24,860
So every great software developer, for example, now has an army of robots working for him
所以每個偉大的軟體開發者，例如，現在都有一個機器人大軍為他工作，

1903
01:43:24,860 --> 01:43:29,100
at nighttime while he or she sleeps after they've written the code and it's just cranking
在他或她寫完程式碼後，當他或她睡覺時，它就在晚上運作，

1904
01:43:29,100 --> 01:43:30,100
away.
不斷地。

1905
01:43:30,100 --> 01:43:32,460
So the robots army is already here.
所以機器人大軍已經在這裡了。

1906
01:43:32,460 --> 01:43:34,660
The robot revolution has already happened.
機器人革命已經發生了。

1907
01:43:34,660 --> 01:43:35,900
We're about halfway through it.
我們大概進行到一半了。

1908
01:43:35,900 --> 01:43:39,180
We're just adding in much more of the hardware component these days.
我們現在只是加入了更多的硬體元件。

1909
01:43:39,180 --> 01:43:43,780
As we get more familiar, we get more comfortable with the idea of autonomous vehicles and autonomous
隨著我們越來越熟悉，我們對自動駕駛汽車和自動

1910
01:43:43,780 --> 01:43:48,980
airplanes and autonomous ships and maybe autonomous trucks and their delivery bots and Boston
駕駛飛機和自動駕駛船隻，也許還有自動駕駛卡車和它們的送貨機器人，以及波士頓

1911
01:43:48,980 --> 01:43:50,820
dynamics robots and all that.
動力機器人等等的想法越來越自在。

1912
01:43:50,820 --> 01:43:55,620
But robots who are doing web searching for you, for example, are already here.
但是，例如，為你做網頁搜索的機器人，已經在這裡了。

1913
01:43:55,620 --> 01:43:59,260
The ones who are cleaning up your video and audio and transmitting around the world are
那些清理你的影片和音訊並在世界各地傳輸的，

1914
01:43:59,260 --> 01:44:00,540
already here.
已經在這裡了。

1915
01:44:00,540 --> 01:44:03,940
The ones who are answering many customer service queries, things that you would have had to
那些回答許多客服問題的人，那些你過去必須

1916
01:44:03,940 --> 01:44:06,140
call human for are already here.
打電話找人解決的事，現在已經有了。

1917
01:44:06,140 --> 01:44:08,260
So an army of robots is already here.
所以機器人大軍已經在這裡了。

1918
01:44:08,260 --> 01:44:13,580
It's very cheaply available and the bottleneck is just figuring out intelligent and interesting
它非常便宜，而瓶頸只是想出聰明有趣的

1919
01:44:13,580 --> 01:44:14,700
things to do to them.
事情來讓它們做。

1920
01:44:14,700 --> 01:44:19,460
And essentially you can order this army of robots around just the commands have to be
基本上，你可以指揮這支機器人大軍，只是命令必須用

1921
01:44:19,460 --> 01:44:22,460
issued in a computer language in the language that they understand.
電腦語言，用它們能理解的語言發出。

1922
01:44:22,460 --> 01:44:24,300
So these robots aren't very smart.
所以這些機器人不太聰明。

1923
01:44:24,300 --> 01:44:27,300
They have to be told very precisely what to do and how to do it.
它們必須被非常精確地告知該做什麼以及如何做。

1924
01:44:27,300 --> 01:44:31,900
So coding is such a great superpower because now you can speak the language of the robot
所以編碼是如此強大的超能力，因為現在你可以說機器人

1925
01:44:31,900 --> 01:44:34,700
armies and you can tell them what to do.
軍隊的語言，你可以告訴他們該做什麼。

1926
01:44:34,700 --> 01:44:39,420
And I think at this point, actually, people are not only commanding the army of robots
而且我認為在這一點上，其實人們不只指揮著機器人軍團

1927
01:44:39,420 --> 01:44:45,220
within servers through code, they're actually manipulating the movement of trucks of other
透過程式碼在伺服器中運作，他們實際上也在操控其他

1928
01:44:45,220 --> 01:44:46,220
people.
人的卡車移動。

1929
01:44:46,220 --> 01:44:50,860
Just ordering a package on Amazon, you're manipulating the movement of many people and
光是在亞馬遜上訂購一個包裹，你就操控了許多人和

1930
01:44:50,860 --> 01:44:53,420
many robots to get a package delivered to you.
許多機器人，來讓一個包裹送到你手上。

1931
01:44:53,420 --> 01:44:55,940
People are doing the same things to build businesses now.
人們現在也用同樣的方法來建立事業。

1932
01:44:55,940 --> 01:45:00,940
So there's the army of robots within servers and then there's also an army of actual robots
所以在伺服器內有機器人大軍，然後還有一個由實際機器人

1933
01:45:00,940 --> 01:45:04,240
and people that are being manipulated through software.
和透過軟體被操控的人組成的大軍。

1934
01:45:04,240 --> 01:45:10,100
River and capital are much less egalitarian, not just in their inputs, but in their outputs.
河流和資本在投入和產出上都比較不平等。

1935
01:45:10,100 --> 01:45:13,900
Let's say that I need something that humans have to provide, like if I want a massage
假設我需要人類提供的東西，例如我想按摩

1936
01:45:13,900 --> 01:45:16,740
or if I need someone to cook my food.
或者我需要有人為我做飯。

1937
01:45:16,740 --> 01:45:22,340
The more of a human element there is in providing that service, the less egalitarian it is.
提供該服務的人類因素越多，就越不平等。

1938
01:45:22,340 --> 01:45:26,060
Jeff Bezos probably has much better vacations than most of us, right?
傑夫·貝佐斯可能比我們大多數人擁有更好的假期，對吧？

1939
01:45:26,060 --> 01:45:29,820
Because he has lots of humans running around doing whatever he needs to do.
因為他有很多的人在為他奔波，做他需要做的事。

1940
01:45:29,820 --> 01:45:34,820
But if you look at the output of code and media, Jeff Bezos doesn't get to watch better movies
但如果你看看程式碼和媒體的產出，傑夫·貝佐斯沒有辦法看比

1941
01:45:34,820 --> 01:45:36,380
and TV than we do.
我們更好的電影和電視。

1942
01:45:36,380 --> 01:45:40,540
Jeff Bezos doesn't get to even have a better computing experience.
傑夫·貝佐斯甚至沒有辦法擁有更好的電腦體驗。

1943
01:45:40,540 --> 01:45:44,940
Google doesn't give him some premium special Google account where his searches are better.
Google 沒有給他一些高級的特殊 Google 帳戶，讓他的搜索更好。

1944
01:45:44,940 --> 01:45:50,100
It's the nature of code and media output that the same product is accessible to everybody
程式碼和媒體產出的本質是，同樣的產品對每個人都是可及的，

1945
01:45:50,100 --> 01:45:54,900
and it turns into a positive sum game where if Jeff Bezos is consuming the same product
而且它變成了一個正和遊戲，如果傑夫·貝佐斯消費的產品和

1946
01:45:54,900 --> 01:45:58,780
as a thousand other people, that product will be better than the version that Jeff would
其他一千個人一樣，那個產品會比傑夫自己消費的版本

1947
01:45:58,780 --> 01:46:00,500
consume on his own.
更好。

1948
01:46:00,500 --> 01:46:02,520
Whereas with other products, that's not true.
然而對於其他產品，這不是真的。

1949
01:46:02,520 --> 01:46:06,980
If you look at something like buying a Rolex, which is no longer about telling time it's
如果你看看像買勞力士這樣的事，那不再是關於報時，而是

1950
01:46:06,980 --> 01:46:08,020
a signaling good.
一個信號商品。

1951
01:46:08,020 --> 01:46:10,100
It's all about showing off I have a Rolex.
這都是關於炫耀我有一支勞力士。

1952
01:46:10,100 --> 01:46:11,380
That's a zero sum game.
那是一個零和遊戲。

1953
01:46:11,380 --> 01:46:14,860
If everybody in the world is wearing a Rolex, then people don't want to wear Rolexes anymore
如果世界上每個人都戴勞力士，那麼人們就不再想戴勞力士了，

1954
01:46:14,860 --> 01:46:16,400
because they no longer signal.
因為它們不再發出信號。

1955
01:46:16,400 --> 01:46:18,020
It's canceled out the effect.
它抵消了效果。

1956
01:46:18,020 --> 01:46:21,740
And so rich people do have an advantage in consuming that product.
所以富人在消費那個產品上確實有優勢。

1957
01:46:21,740 --> 01:46:25,620
They'll just price it up till only they can have Rolexes and then poor people can't have
他們只會把價格提高到只有他們能擁有勞力士，然後窮人就不能擁有

1958
01:46:25,620 --> 01:46:28,020
Rolexes and Rolexes resume their signaling value.
勞力士，勞力士也就恢復了它們的信號價值。

1959
01:46:28,020 --> 01:46:32,860
But something like watching Netflix or using Google or using Facebook or YouTube or even
但像看 Netflix、用 Google、用 Facebook 或 YouTube，甚至

1960
01:46:32,860 --> 01:46:36,860
frankly modern day cars like rich people don't have better cars.
坦白說，現代的汽車，像富人就沒有更好的車。

1961
01:46:36,860 --> 01:46:39,140
They just have weirder cars.
他們只是有更奇怪的車。

1962
01:46:39,140 --> 01:46:44,060
You can't drive a Lamborghini on the street at any speed that makes sense for a Lamborghini.
你不能在街上以任何對藍寶堅尼有意義的速度開藍寶堅尼。

1963
01:46:44,060 --> 01:46:46,160
So it's actually a worse car in the street.
所以它在街上其實是一輛更差的車。

1964
01:46:46,160 --> 01:46:48,560
It just turned into a signaling good at that point.
在那一點上，它只是變成了一個信號商品。

1965
01:46:48,560 --> 01:46:53,260
Your sweet spot where you want to be is somewhere like a Tesla Model 3 or like a Toyota Corolla
你想待的甜蜜點是像特斯拉 Model 3 或像豐田 Corolla 這樣

1966
01:46:53,260 --> 01:46:54,820
is an amazing car.
是一輛很棒的車。

1967
01:46:54,820 --> 01:46:59,100
A new Toyota Corolla is a really nice car, but because it's mainstream, the technology
一輛新的豐田 Corolla 是一輛非常好的車，但因為它是主流的，科技

1968
01:46:59,100 --> 01:47:03,460
has amortized the cost of production over the largest number of consumers possible.
已經將生產成本攤銷在盡可能多的消費者身上。

1969
01:47:03,460 --> 01:47:07,740
And the best products tend to be at the center, at the sweet spot, the middle class rather
而最好的產品往往在中心，在甜蜜點，是中產階級，而不是

1970
01:47:07,740 --> 01:47:09,540
than being targeted at the upper class.
針對上層階級。

1971
01:47:09,540 --> 01:47:12,260
So I think one of the things that we don't necessarily appreciate in modern society is
所以我認為，我們在現代社會不一定欣賞的事情之一是，

1972
01:47:12,260 --> 01:47:17,620
as the forms of leverage have gone from being human-based, labor-based and being capital-based
隨著槓桿的形式從以人為本、以勞力為本、以資本為本，

1973
01:47:17,620 --> 01:47:21,900
to being more product and code and media-based, that most of the goods and services that we
轉變為更以產品、程式碼和媒體為本，我們消費的大部分商品和服務

1974
01:47:21,900 --> 01:47:25,660
consume are becoming much more egalitarian in their consumption.
在消費上變得更加平等。

1975
01:47:25,660 --> 01:47:27,820
Even food is becoming that way.
即使是食物也變得如此。

1976
01:47:27,820 --> 01:47:32,660
Food is becoming cheap and abundant, at least in the first world, too much so to our detriment.
食物變得便宜而豐富，至少在第一世界，甚至太多以至於對我們有害。

1977
01:47:32,660 --> 01:47:35,060
Jeff Bezos is initially eating better food.
傑夫·貝佐斯一開始吃的是比較好的食物。

1978
01:47:35,060 --> 01:47:40,020
He's just eating different food or he's eating food that's prepared and served theatrically.
他只是吃不同的食物，或者他吃的食物是經過精心準備和戲劇性地呈現的。

1979
01:47:40,020 --> 01:47:43,060
So it's almost like more of, again, the human element performance.
所以這幾乎更像是，再次強調，人類元素的表現。

1980
01:47:43,060 --> 01:47:46,380
But the labor element out of food production has gone down massively.
但食品生產中的勞力因素已經大幅下降。

1981
01:47:46,380 --> 01:47:48,860
The capital element has gone down massively.
資本因素已經大幅下降。

1982
01:47:48,860 --> 01:47:52,540
And so even food production itself has become more technology-oriented.
所以即使是食品生產本身也變得更加以科技為導向。

1983
01:47:52,540 --> 01:47:56,420
And so the gap between the haves and the have-nots is getting smaller.
所以富人與窮人之間的差距正在縮小。

1984
01:47:56,420 --> 01:48:01,980
So if you care about ethics in wealth creation, it is better to create your wealth using code
所以如果你關心財富創造中的倫理問題，最好是利用程式碼

1985
01:48:01,980 --> 01:48:07,540
and media as leverage because then those products are equally available to everybody as opposed
和媒體作為槓桿來創造你的財富，因為那樣的產品對每個人都是平等的，而不是

1986
01:48:07,540 --> 01:48:12,220
to trying to create your wealth through labor or capital because what I'm referring to here
試圖透過勞力或資本來創造你的財富，因為我這裡指的是

1987
01:48:12,220 --> 01:48:14,720
is scale economies.
規模經濟。

1988
01:48:14,720 --> 01:48:21,020
Media products and media products have such amazing scale economies that you always want
媒體產品和媒體產品有如此驚人的規模經濟，以至於你總想

1989
01:48:21,020 --> 01:48:23,980
to use the product that is used by the most people.
使用最多人使用的產品。

1990
01:48:23,980 --> 01:48:27,720
The one that's used by the most people ends up having the largest budget.
最多人使用的那個，最終會有最大的預算。

1991
01:48:27,720 --> 01:48:30,220
There's no marginal cost of adding another user.
增加一個用戶沒有邊際成本。

1992
01:48:30,220 --> 01:48:33,060
And so with the largest budget, you get the highest quality.
所以有了最大的預算，你就能得到最高的品質。

1993
01:48:33,060 --> 01:48:37,600
So the best TV shows are actually not going to be some obscure ones just made for a few
所以最好的電視劇其實不會是那些只為少數

1994
01:48:37,600 --> 01:48:38,700
rich people.
富人製作的冷門劇。

1995
01:48:38,700 --> 01:48:42,220
They're going to be the big budget ones like the Game of Thrones or The Breaking Bad or
它們將會是那些大預算的劇，像是《權力遊戲》、《絕命毒師》或

1996
01:48:42,220 --> 01:48:44,660
Bird Box where they have massive, massive budgets.
《蒙上你的眼》，它們有龐大的、龐大的預算。

1997
01:48:44,660 --> 01:48:48,420
They can just use those budgets to get to a certain quality level.
他們可以利用那些預算達到某種品質水平。

1998
01:48:48,420 --> 01:48:52,460
And then the rich people to be different, they have to fly to Sundance and watch a documentary
然後，有錢人為了與眾不同，他們得飛去日舞影展看紀錄片，

1999
01:48:52,460 --> 01:48:56,460
because you and I aren't going to fly to Sundance because that's something that bored rich people
因為你和我不會飛去日舞影展，因為那是無聊的有錢人

2000
01:48:56,460 --> 01:48:57,980
do to show off.
為了炫耀而做的事。

2001
01:48:57,980 --> 01:49:00,260
And we're not going to watch a documentary because most of them just aren't actually
而且我們不會看紀錄片，因為大部分的紀錄片其實

2002
01:49:00,260 --> 01:49:01,260
even that good.
甚至沒有那麼好。

2003
01:49:01,260 --> 01:49:02,260
Right?
對吧？

2004
01:49:02,260 --> 01:49:07,220
Again, if you're wealthy today, for large classes of things, you spend your money on
再次強調，如果你今天很富有，對於大部分的東西，你把錢花在

2005
01:49:07,220 --> 01:49:12,060
signaling goods to show other people that you're wealthy and you try and convert them to status.
信號商品上，向別人展示你很富有，然後你試圖把它們轉換為地位。

2006
01:49:12,060 --> 01:49:15,540
As opposed to actually consuming the goods for their own sake.
而不是真正地為了商品本身而消費它們。

2007
01:49:15,540 --> 01:49:21,540
People and capital as a form of leverage have a negative externality and code and product
人力和資本作為一種槓桿形式，具有負面的外部性，而程式碼和產品

2008
01:49:21,540 --> 01:49:24,220
have a positive externality attached to them.
則附帶了正面的外部性。

2009
01:49:24,220 --> 01:49:29,980
If I was going to sum up your point, I think that capital and labor are also starting to
如果我要總結你的觀點，我認為資本和勞力也開始

2010
01:49:29,980 --> 01:49:35,260
become a little more permissionless or at least the permissioning is diffuse because
變得比較不需要許可，或者至少許可的過程變得分散，因為

2011
01:49:35,260 --> 01:49:36,260
of the internet.
網際網路。

2012
01:49:36,260 --> 01:49:41,780
So instead of labor, we have community now, which is diffused form of labor.
所以取代勞力，我們現在有社群，那是勞力的分散形式。

2013
01:49:41,780 --> 01:49:47,700
For example, Mark Zuckerberg has a billion people doing work for him by using Facebook.
例如，馬克·祖克柏有十億人透過使用 Facebook 為他工作。

2014
01:49:47,700 --> 01:49:52,340
And instead of going to raise capital from someone who's rich, now we have crowdfunding.
而且，與其向有錢人籌資，現在我們有群眾募資。

2015
01:49:52,340 --> 01:49:57,460
So you can raise millions and millions of dollars for a charity, for a health problem
所以你可以為一個慈善機構、一個健康問題

2016
01:49:57,460 --> 01:49:59,000
or for a business.
或一個企業籌集數百萬美元。

2017
01:49:59,000 --> 01:50:00,660
You can do it all online.
你可以在線上完成所有事情。

2018
01:50:00,660 --> 01:50:07,180
So capital and labor are also becoming permissionless and you don't need to necessarily do it the
所以資本和勞力也變得無需許可，你不一定需要用

2019
01:50:07,180 --> 01:50:11,160
old fashioned way where you have to go around and ask people for permission to use their
老方法，也就是你必須到處去請求人們允許你使用他們的

2020
01:50:11,160 --> 01:50:13,340
money or their time.
錢或時間。

2021
01:50:13,340 --> 01:50:15,700
One more question about leverage.
還有一個關於槓桿的問題。

2022
01:50:15,700 --> 01:50:20,020
Do you think a choice of business model or a choice of product can also bring a kind
你認為商業模式的選擇或產品的選擇也能帶來一種

2023
01:50:20,020 --> 01:50:21,180
of leverage to it?
槓桿作用嗎？

2024
01:50:21,180 --> 01:50:26,300
For example, pursuing a business that has network effects, pursuing a business that
例如，追求一個具有網絡效應的企業，追求一個

2025
01:50:26,300 --> 01:50:32,380
has brand effects or other choices of business model that people could manipulate that just
具有品牌效應的企業，或者人們可以操控的其他商業模式選擇，那些只是

2026
01:50:32,380 --> 01:50:34,100
give you free leverage.
給你免費的槓桿。

2027
01:50:34,100 --> 01:50:39,760
Yeah, there's some really good microeconomic concepts that are important to understand.
是的，有一些非常好的微觀經濟學概念很重要，需要了解。

2028
01:50:39,760 --> 01:50:43,400
One of those is scale economies, which is the more you produce something, the cheaper
其中一個是規模經濟，也就是你生產的越多，生產

2029
01:50:43,400 --> 01:50:44,740
it gets to make it.
它的成本就越低。

2030
01:50:44,740 --> 01:50:48,700
That's something that a lot of businesses have basic economics 101 and you should try
這是很多企業都具備的基礎經濟學常識，你應該試著

2031
01:50:48,700 --> 01:50:52,820
and get into a business where making widget number 12 is cheaper than making widget number
進入一個製造第 12 個零件比製造第 5 個零件便宜，

2032
01:50:52,820 --> 01:50:56,380
five and making widget number 10,000 is a lot cheaper than the previous ones.
而製造第 10,000 個零件比之前的便宜很多。

2033
01:50:56,380 --> 01:51:01,820
This builds up an automatic sort of bearer to entry against competition and getting commoditized.
這會建立起一種自動的進入門檻，以對抗競爭和商品化。

2034
01:51:01,820 --> 01:51:03,620
So that's an important one.
所以那很重要。

2035
01:51:03,620 --> 01:51:08,060
Another one, this is along the same lines, but technology products especially and media
另一個，這也是類似的，但科技產品，特別是媒體

2036
01:51:08,060 --> 01:51:13,420
products have this great quality where they have zero marginal cost of reproduction.
產品有這個很棒的特質，它們的邊際複製成本為零。

2037
01:51:13,420 --> 01:51:16,060
So creating another copy of what you just created is free.
所以創造你剛創造的東西的另一個副本是免費的。

2038
01:51:16,060 --> 01:51:21,100
So when somebody listens to this podcast or watches a YouTube video about this, it doesn't
所以當有人聽這個播客或看關於這個的 YouTube 影片，

2039
01:51:21,100 --> 01:51:23,940
cost me anything for the next person who shows up.
下一個人出現時，我不需要付出任何代價。

2040
01:51:23,940 --> 01:51:27,060
Those zero marginal cost things, they take a while to get going because you make very
那些零邊際成本的東西，它們需要一段時間才能起步，因為你每

2041
01:51:27,060 --> 01:51:31,060
little money per user, but over time they can really, really add up.
個用戶賺的錢很少，但隨著時間的推移，它們真的、真的會累積起來。

2042
01:51:31,060 --> 01:51:36,460
So Joe Rogan is working no harder on his current podcast than he was on podcast number one,
所以 Joe Rogan 現在的播客工作並不比他第一個播客更努力，

2043
01:51:36,460 --> 01:51:41,100
but on podcast number 1100, he's making a million dollars for the podcast, whereas for
但在第 1100 個播客上，他賺了一百萬美元，而

2044
01:51:41,100 --> 01:51:44,180
the previous one, he probably lost money for the first one.
上一個，他可能第一個就虧錢了。

2045
01:51:44,180 --> 01:51:46,540
That's an example of zero marginal cost.
這是零邊際成本的一個例子。

2046
01:51:46,540 --> 01:51:50,380
And then the most subtle, but the most important is this idea of network effects.
然後最微妙，但最重要的是這個網絡效應的概念。

2047
01:51:50,380 --> 01:51:52,900
And it comes from computer networking.
它來自於電腦網絡。

2048
01:51:52,900 --> 01:51:57,460
Bob Metcalfe, who created Ethernet, famously coined Metcalfe's law, which is the value
創造乙太網路的鮑伯·梅特卡夫，有名地創造了梅特卡夫定律，也就是

2049
01:51:57,460 --> 01:52:02,060
of a network is proportional to the square of the number of nodes in the network.
一個網路的價值與網路中節點數量的平方成正比。

2050
01:52:02,060 --> 01:52:07,540
So if a network of size 10 would have a value of 100, network of a size 100 would have a
所以如果一個大小為 10 的網路價值為 100，一個大小為 100 的網路價值為

2051
01:52:07,540 --> 01:52:09,140
value of 10,000.
10,000。

2052
01:52:09,140 --> 01:52:12,060
It's not just 10x more, it's 100x more because it's a square.
它不只是 10 倍，而是 100 倍，因為它是平方。

2053
01:52:12,060 --> 01:52:13,580
So the difference is in the square.
所以差別在於平方。

2054
01:52:13,580 --> 01:52:17,780
So you want to be in a network effects business, assuming you're not number two.
所以你想在一個有網路效應的行業裡，假設你不是第二名。

2055
01:52:17,780 --> 01:52:21,540
If you're number one in network effect business, you win everything.
如果你在網路效應的行業裡是第一名，你就贏了一切。

2056
01:52:21,540 --> 01:52:25,420
So example, if you look at Facebook, right, your friends and family social networking
例如，如果你看看 Facebook，對吧，你的親朋好友社交網路

2057
01:52:25,420 --> 01:52:27,620
protocol, who's their competitor?
協定，他們的競爭對手是誰？

2058
01:52:27,620 --> 01:52:30,940
Nobody because they want everything through network effects, which is why when people
沒有人，因為他們透過網路效應想要一切，這就是為什麼當人們

2059
01:52:30,940 --> 01:52:34,740
say, well, I can just switch away from Facebook, they don't realize that network effects create
說：「嗯，我只要離開 Facebook 就好」，他們沒有意識到網路效應創造了

2060
01:52:34,740 --> 01:52:35,740
natural monopolies.
自然壟斷。

2061
01:52:35,740 --> 01:52:37,740
They're very, very powerful things.
它們是非常、非常強大的東西。

2062
01:52:37,740 --> 01:52:41,860
And one of the dirty secrets of Silicon Valley is that a lot of the winning businesses are
矽谷的一個骯髒秘密是，很多獲勝的企業是

2063
01:52:41,860 --> 01:52:43,480
natural monopolies.
自然壟斷。

2064
01:52:43,480 --> 01:52:46,900
Even dried sharing tends towards one winner take all system.
即使是共享經濟也傾向於贏者全拿的系統。

2065
01:52:46,900 --> 01:52:51,420
Like Uber will always have better economics than Lyft, as long as it's moving more drivers
例如，Uber 的經濟效益永遠會比 Lyft 好，只要它能移動更多的司機

2066
01:52:51,420 --> 01:52:55,260
and more riders around something like Google, there's only one viable search engine.
和更多的乘客，就像 Google，只有一個可行的搜尋引擎。

2067
01:52:55,260 --> 01:52:59,780
I do like DuckDuckGo, you know, privacy reasons, but they're just always going to be behind
我確實喜歡 DuckDuckGo，你知道的，為了隱私，但他們永遠會落後，

2068
01:52:59,780 --> 01:53:01,180
because of network effects.
因為網路效應。

2069
01:53:01,180 --> 01:53:02,300
Twitter, right?
推特，對吧？

2070
01:53:02,300 --> 01:53:03,980
Where else would you go for micro blocking?
你還會去哪裡用微型部落格？

2071
01:53:03,980 --> 01:53:07,460
Even YouTube has weak network effects, but they're still powerful enough.
即使是 YouTube，它的網路效應也較弱，但仍然足夠強大。

2072
01:53:07,460 --> 01:53:11,100
There's really no number two site that you go to, to consume your video on a regular
真的沒有第二個網站，你會經常去那裡看影片。

2073
01:53:11,100 --> 01:53:12,100
basis.
基礎。

2074
01:53:12,100 --> 01:53:17,860
And it even turns out in e-tail Amazon Prime and convenience stored credit cards and information
而且，在電子零售業，亞馬遜 Prime、方便的信用卡儲存和資訊，

2075
01:53:17,860 --> 01:53:19,580
creates a powerful network effect.
也創造了強大的網路效應。

2076
01:53:19,580 --> 01:53:21,060
So what is a network effect?
所以什麼是網路效應？

2077
01:53:21,060 --> 01:53:22,740
Let's just define it precisely.
讓我們精確地定義它。

2078
01:53:22,740 --> 01:53:30,620
A network effect is when each additional user adds value to the existing user base.
網路效應是指每一個額外的用戶都會為現有的用戶群增加價值。

2079
01:53:30,620 --> 01:53:34,900
So your users themselves are creating some value for the existing users.
所以你的用戶本身正在為現有的用戶創造一些價值。

2080
01:53:34,900 --> 01:53:38,780
The classic example that I think everybody can understand is language.
我認為每個人都能理解的典型例子是語言。

2081
01:53:38,780 --> 01:53:42,420
Let's say that there's a hundred people live in the community and speak 10 different languages
假設一個社群住著一百個人，他們說十種不同的語言，

2082
01:53:42,420 --> 01:53:44,580
and each person just speaks one of those 10.
而每個人只說其中一種。

2083
01:53:44,580 --> 01:53:46,740
Well, you're having to translate all the time.
嗯，你得一直翻譯。

2084
01:53:46,740 --> 01:53:50,820
It's incredibly painful, but if all hundred of you spoke the same language, it would add
那非常痛苦，但如果你們一百個人都說同一個語言，那會增加

2085
01:53:50,820 --> 01:53:52,460
tremendous value.
巨大的價值。

2086
01:53:52,460 --> 01:53:57,100
And so the way that community will play out is 10 people start out speaking 10 languages.
所以那個社群會這樣發展：一開始有十個人說十種語言。

2087
01:53:57,100 --> 01:53:59,100
Let's say that one extra person learns English.
假設多一個人學了英文。

2088
01:53:59,100 --> 01:54:02,900
Well, now all of a sudden 11 people know English so that the next person comes in to learn new
嗯，現在突然有十一個人會說英文，所以下一個人進來學新語言時，

2089
01:54:02,900 --> 01:54:04,880
language, probably going to choose English.
很可能會選擇英文。

2090
01:54:04,880 --> 01:54:07,860
At some point, let's say English gets to 20 or 25 people.
到某個時間點，假設英文的使用者達到 20 或 25 人。

2091
01:54:07,860 --> 01:54:08,860
It's done.
那就成了。

2092
01:54:08,860 --> 01:54:11,620
It's just going to own the entire language marketplace and the rest of the languages
它將會主宰整個語言市場，而其他的語言

2093
01:54:11,620 --> 01:54:15,980
will get competed out, which is why long-term the entire world is probably going to end
將會被淘汰，這就是為什麼長期來看，整個世界很可能會最終

2094
01:54:15,980 --> 01:54:17,900
up speaking English and Chinese.
都說英文和中文。

2095
01:54:17,900 --> 01:54:22,100
China is closed off on the internet, but the internet itself is a great leveler and people
中國在網路上是封閉的，但網際網路本身是一個很好的平衡器，而人們

2096
01:54:22,100 --> 01:54:25,620
who want to communicate on the internet are forced to speak English because the largest
想在網路上溝通，被迫說英文，因為網路上最大的

2097
01:54:25,620 --> 01:54:28,380
community of people on the internet speaks English.
社群是說英文的。

2098
01:54:28,380 --> 01:54:33,380
I always feel bad for my colleagues who grew up speaking foreign languages in foreign countries
我總是為那些在國外長大、說外語的同事感到難過，

2099
01:54:33,380 --> 01:54:36,840
because you don't have access to so many books.
因為你無法接觸到那麼多的書。

2100
01:54:36,840 --> 01:54:39,820
So many books just haven't been translated into other languages.
很多書根本沒有被翻譯成其他語言。

2101
01:54:39,820 --> 01:54:44,660
So if you only spoke French or you only spoke German or you only spoke Hindi, for example,
所以如果你只說法語，或只說德語，或只說印地語，例如，

2102
01:54:44,660 --> 01:54:47,820
you would be at a severe disadvantage in a technical education.
你在技術教育上會處於嚴重的劣勢。

2103
01:54:47,820 --> 01:54:52,060
Invariably, if you go and get a technical education, you have to learn English just
無一例外地，如果你去接受技術教育，你就必須學英文，就

2104
01:54:52,060 --> 01:54:56,160
because you have to read these books that have this data that has not been translated.
因為你必須讀這些有著尚未翻譯的資料的書。

2105
01:54:56,160 --> 01:54:59,360
So languages are probably the oldest example of network effect.
所以語言可能是網路效應最古老的例子。

2106
01:54:59,360 --> 01:55:00,600
Money is another example.
金錢是另一個例子。

2107
01:55:00,600 --> 01:55:04,820
We should all probably be using the same money except for the fact that geographic and regulatory
我們可能都應該使用同樣的貨幣，除了地理和監管的

2108
01:55:04,820 --> 01:55:07,500
boundaries have created these artificial islands of money.
界線創造了這些人為的貨幣孤島。

2109
01:55:07,500 --> 01:55:12,940
But even then, the world tends to use a single currency as the reserve currency at most times,
但即使如此，世界在大多數時候都傾向於使用單一貨幣作為儲備貨幣，

2110
01:55:12,940 --> 01:55:14,740
currently the US dollar.
目前是美元。

2111
01:55:14,740 --> 01:55:16,960
So network effects are a very powerful concept.
所以網路效應是一個非常強大的概念。

2112
01:55:16,960 --> 01:55:22,300
When you're picking a business model, it's a really good idea to pick a model where you
當你選擇商業模式時，選擇一個你能從網路效應、

2113
01:55:22,300 --> 01:55:26,620
can benefit from network effects, low marginal costs, and scale economies.
低邊際成本和規模經濟中獲益的模式是個非常好的主意。

2114
01:55:26,620 --> 01:55:27,620
And these tend to go together.
而這些往往是相輔相成的。

2115
01:55:27,620 --> 01:55:31,940
Like anything that has zero marginal cost of production obviously has scale economies
像任何零邊際生產成本的東西顯然都有規模經濟，

2116
01:55:31,940 --> 01:55:36,500
and things that have zero marginal cost of reproductions very often tend to have network
而零邊際複製成本的東西往往有網路

2117
01:55:36,500 --> 01:55:40,220
effects because it doesn't cost you anything more to stamp out the thing.
效應，因為你複製它不需要花費任何額外的成本。

2118
01:55:40,220 --> 01:55:43,540
So then you can just create little hooks for users to add value to each other.
所以你就可以創造一些小鉤子，讓使用者互相增加價值。

2119
01:55:43,540 --> 01:55:48,980
So you should always be thinking about how your users, your customers can add value to
所以你應該一直思考你的用戶、你的顧客如何能為

2120
01:55:48,980 --> 01:55:52,620
each other because that is the ultimate form of leverage.
彼此增加價值，因為那是終極的槓桿形式。

2121
01:55:52,620 --> 01:55:56,220
You're on the beach in the Bahamas or you're sleeping at night and your customers are adding
你在巴哈馬的海灘上，或者你在晚上睡覺，而你的顧客正在為

2122
01:55:56,220 --> 01:55:58,780
value to each other.
彼此增加價值。

2123
01:55:58,780 --> 01:56:01,060
The tweet storm is very abstract.
這則推文風暴非常抽象。

2124
01:56:01,060 --> 01:56:06,620
It's deliberately meant to be broadly applicable to all kinds of different domains and disciplines
它刻意被設計成能廣泛應用於各種不同的領域和學科、

2125
01:56:06,620 --> 01:56:08,700
and time periods and places.
時間和地點。

2126
01:56:08,700 --> 01:56:11,740
But sometimes it's hard to work without concrete example.
但有時候，沒有具體的例子很難工作。

2127
01:56:11,740 --> 01:56:14,100
So let's go concrete for a minute.
所以讓我們具體一下。

2128
01:56:14,100 --> 01:56:15,740
Look at the real estate business.
看看房地產業。

2129
01:56:15,740 --> 01:56:16,740
You could start at the bottom.
你可以從底層開始。

2130
01:56:16,740 --> 01:56:18,340
Let's say you're a day laborer.
假設你是一個日薪工人。

2131
01:56:18,340 --> 01:56:20,980
You come in, you fix people's houses.
你進來，你修理人們的房子。

2132
01:56:20,980 --> 01:56:24,920
Someone orders you around and tells you break that piece of rock, sand that piece of wood,
有人指揮你，叫你打碎那塊石頭，打磨那塊木頭，

2133
01:56:24,920 --> 01:56:26,580
put that thing over there.
把那個東西放在那邊。

2134
01:56:26,580 --> 01:56:29,460
There's just all these menial jobs that go on the construction site.
工地上就是有這些卑微的工作。

2135
01:56:29,460 --> 01:56:33,820
If you're working one of those jobs, unless you're a skilled trade, like say a carpenter
如果你做那些工作，除非你是技術工人，像是木匠

2136
01:56:33,820 --> 01:56:36,500
or electrician, you don't really have specific knowledge.
或電工，否則你沒有什麼特定知識。

2137
01:56:36,500 --> 01:56:39,820
And even carpenter or electrician is not that specific because other people can be trained
即使是木匠或電工也不那麼特定，因為其他人可以被訓練

2138
01:56:39,820 --> 01:56:40,820
how to do it.
如何做。

2139
01:56:40,820 --> 01:56:41,820
So you can be replaced.
所以你可以被取代。

2140
01:56:41,820 --> 01:56:43,940
So you get paid your 15, 20, 25, 50.
所以你拿到你的薪水，15、20、25、50。

2141
01:56:43,940 --> 01:56:47,780
If you're really lucky, $75 an hour, but that's about it.
如果你真的很幸運，一小時75美元，但也就這樣了。

2142
01:56:47,780 --> 01:56:50,740
You don't have any leverage other than from the tools that you're using.
除了你使用的工具之外，你沒有任何槓桿作用。

2143
01:56:50,740 --> 01:56:53,740
So if you're driving a bulldozer, that's better than doing it with your hands.
所以如果你開推土機，那比用手做要好。

2144
01:56:53,740 --> 01:56:57,560
So day labor in India makes a lot less because they have no tool leverage.
所以在印度的日工賺得少很多，因為他們沒有工具槓桿。

2145
01:56:57,560 --> 01:56:58,740
You don't have much accountability.
你沒有太大的責任。

2146
01:56:58,740 --> 01:57:02,460
You're a faceless cog in the construction crew and the owner of the house or the buyer
你只是施工團隊中一個無名的小齒輪，屋主或買家

2147
01:57:02,460 --> 01:57:06,020
of the house doesn't know or care that you worked on it.
不知道也不在乎你參與了工程。

2148
01:57:06,020 --> 01:57:11,340
One step up from that, you might have a contractor, like a general contractor who someone hires
再往上一級，你可能是個承包商，比如總承包商，有人僱用他們

2149
01:57:11,340 --> 01:57:14,100
to come and fix and repair and build up their house.
來修繕和建造他們的房子。

2150
01:57:14,100 --> 01:57:16,260
That general contractor is taking accountability.
那個總承包商正在承擔責任。

2151
01:57:16,260 --> 01:57:17,820
They're taking responsibility.
他們在承擔責任。

2152
01:57:17,820 --> 01:57:20,860
So now if let's say they got paid $250,000 for the job.
所以現在，假設他們這個工作拿了25萬美元。

2153
01:57:20,860 --> 01:57:22,500
Sorry, I'm using barrier prices.
抱歉，我用的是灣區價格。

2154
01:57:22,500 --> 01:57:27,480
So maybe I'll go rest the world price, $100,000 for the job to fix up a house.
所以我或許用世界其他地方的價格，10萬美元來修繕一棟房子。

2155
01:57:27,480 --> 01:57:31,140
And it actually costs the general contractor all said and done $70,000.
而實際上，總承包商的全部成本是7萬美元。

2156
01:57:31,140 --> 01:57:34,100
Well, that contract is going to pocket that remaining 30.
那麼，那個承包商就會把剩下的3萬放入口袋。

2157
01:57:34,100 --> 01:57:35,180
So they got the upside.
所以他們得到了好處。

2158
01:57:35,180 --> 01:57:38,200
They got the equity, but they're also taking accountability and risk.
他們得到了股權，但他們也承擔了責任和風險。

2159
01:57:38,200 --> 01:57:42,300
So if the project runs over and there's losses, then they eat the losses.
所以如果專案超支並且有虧損，他們就得承擔這些虧損。

2160
01:57:42,300 --> 01:57:47,460
But you see the just the accountability gives them some form of additional potential income.
但你看，光是責任就給了他們某種形式的額外潛在收入。

2161
01:57:47,460 --> 01:57:51,460
And then they also have labor leverage because they have a bunch of people working for them.
然後他們也有勞動力槓桿，因為他們有一群人為他們工作。

2162
01:57:51,460 --> 01:57:53,820
But it probably tops out right there.
但可能也就到此為止了。

2163
01:57:53,820 --> 01:57:57,260
You can go one level above that and you can look at a property developer.
你可以再往上一級，看看房地產開發商。

2164
01:57:57,260 --> 01:58:01,780
This might be someone who is a contractor who did a bunch of houses, did a really good job,
這可能是一個承包商，他蓋了很多房子，做得很好，

2165
01:58:01,780 --> 01:58:03,580
then decided to go into business for themselves.
然後決定自己創業。

2166
01:58:03,580 --> 01:58:07,260
And they go around looking for beaten down properties that have potential.
他們四處尋找有潛力的破舊房產。

2167
01:58:07,260 --> 01:58:08,380
They buy them.
他們買下它們。

2168
01:58:08,380 --> 01:58:12,820
They either raise money from investors, they're fronted themselves, they fix the place up
他們要麼從投資者那裡籌集資金，要麼自己墊付，他們把地方修好

2169
01:58:12,820 --> 01:58:15,300
and then they sell it for twice what they bought it for.
然後以買入價的兩倍賣出。

2170
01:58:15,300 --> 01:58:16,820
Maybe they only put in 20% more.
或許他們只多投入了20%。

2171
01:58:16,820 --> 01:58:18,580
So it's a healthy profit.
所以利潤很可觀。

2172
01:58:18,580 --> 01:58:22,620
So now a developer like that takes on more accountability, has more risk, they have more
所以現在像那樣的開發商承擔了更多的責任，有更多的風險，他們有更多的

2173
01:58:22,620 --> 01:58:26,660
specific knowledge because now you have to know which neighborhoods are worth buying
特定知識，因為現在你必須知道哪些社區值得購買

2174
01:58:26,660 --> 01:58:31,740
and which lots are actually good and which lots are bad, what makes or breaks a specific
哪些地塊是好的，哪些是壞的，什麼決定了一個特定

2175
01:58:31,740 --> 01:58:32,740
property.
房產的成敗。

2176
01:58:32,740 --> 01:58:35,940
You have to imagine the finished house that's going to be there even when the property itself
你必須想像出那裡將會有的完工的房子，即使房產本身

2177
01:58:35,940 --> 01:58:37,560
might look really bad right now.
現在可能看起來很糟糕。

2178
01:58:37,560 --> 01:58:40,940
So there's more specific knowledge, there's more accountability and risk.
所以有更多的特定知識，有更多的責任和風險。

2179
01:58:40,940 --> 01:58:44,420
And now you also have capital leverage because you're also putting money into the project.
現在你也有了資本槓桿，因為你也把錢投入到專案中。

2180
01:58:44,420 --> 01:58:49,380
But conceivably, you could buy a piece of land or a broken down house for $200,000 and
但可以想像，你可以花20萬美元買一塊地或一棟破房子

2181
01:58:49,380 --> 01:58:52,980
turn it into a million dollar mansion and pocket all the difference.
把它變成一座百萬豪宅，並把所有的差價收入囊中。

2182
01:58:52,980 --> 01:58:56,700
One level beyond that might be a famous architect or a developer.
再往上一級可能是一位著名的建築師或開發商。

2183
01:58:56,700 --> 01:59:00,420
We're just having your name on a property because you've done so many great properties
僅僅因為你做過很多很棒的房產，你的名字出現在房產上

2184
01:59:00,420 --> 01:59:02,700
increases its value.
就能增加其價值。

2185
01:59:02,700 --> 01:59:07,500
One level up from that, you might be a person who decides, well, I understand real estate
再往上一級，你可能是這樣一個人，他決定，嗯，我懂房地產

2186
01:59:07,500 --> 01:59:11,780
and I now know enough of the dynamics of real estate that rather than just build and flip
我現在對房地產的動態有了足夠的了解，與其只是建造和翻新

2187
01:59:11,780 --> 01:59:15,660
my own properties or improve my own properties, I'm going to be a massive developer.
自己的房產或改善自己的房產，我將成為一個大型開發商。

2188
01:59:15,660 --> 01:59:18,140
I'm going to build entire communities.
我將建造整個社區。

2189
01:59:18,140 --> 01:59:21,780
Another person might say, I like that leverage, but I don't want to manage all these people.
另一個人可能會說，我喜歡那種槓桿，但我不想管理所有這些人。

2190
01:59:21,780 --> 01:59:23,820
I want to do it more through capital.
我想更多地通過資本來做。

2191
01:59:23,820 --> 01:59:26,140
So I'm going to start a real estate investment trust.
所以我要成立一個房地產投資信託基金。

2192
01:59:26,140 --> 01:59:30,220
And that requires specific knowledge, not just about investing in real estate and building
這需要特定的知識，不僅僅是關於投資房地產和建造

2193
01:59:30,220 --> 01:59:34,220
real estate, but also requires specific knowledge about the financial markets and the capital
房地產，還需要關於金融市場和資本

2194
01:59:34,220 --> 01:59:36,980
markets and how real estate trusts operate.
市場以及房地產信託如何運作的特定知識。

2195
01:59:36,980 --> 01:59:41,540
One level beyond that might be somebody who says, actually, I want to bring the maximum
再往上一級可能是某人說，實際上，我想帶來最大的

2196
01:59:41,540 --> 01:59:45,700
leverage to bear in this market and the maximum specific knowledge.
槓桿作用，在這個市場上發揮作用，並擁有最豐富的特定知識。

2197
01:59:45,700 --> 01:59:49,620
And so that person would say, well, I understand real estate and I understand everything from
所以那個人會說，嗯，我了解房地產，我了解從

2198
01:59:49,620 --> 01:59:54,660
basic housing construction to building properties and selling them to how real estate markets
基礎房屋建設到建造和銷售房產，再到房地產市場

2199
01:59:54,660 --> 01:59:56,140
move and thrive.
的運作和繁榮。

2200
01:59:56,140 --> 01:59:59,020
And I also understand the technology business.
我也了解科技行業。

2201
01:59:59,020 --> 02:00:03,060
So I understand how to recruit developers, how to write code and how to build good product.
所以我了解如何招聘開發人員、如何編寫程式碼以及如何打造好的產品。

2202
02:00:03,060 --> 02:00:06,460
And I understand how to raise money from venture capitalists and how to return it and how all
我了解如何從創投家那裡籌集資金、如何回報，以及所有這些

2203
02:00:06,460 --> 02:00:07,460
of that works.
是如何運作的。

2204
02:00:07,460 --> 02:00:09,100
And obviously not a single person may know this.
顯然，沒有一個人可能知道這一切。

2205
02:00:09,100 --> 02:00:12,700
You may pull a team together to do it where each have different skill sets, but that combined
你可能會組建一個團隊來做這件事，每個人都有不同的技能，但那個結合體

2206
02:00:12,700 --> 02:00:16,640
entity would have specific knowledge in technology and in real estate.
將會在科技和房地產方面擁有特定的知識。

2207
02:00:16,640 --> 02:00:21,180
It would have massive accountability because that company's name would be a very high risk,
它將承擔巨大的責任，因為那家公司的名字將是一個非常高風險、

2208
02:00:21,180 --> 02:00:23,400
high reward effort attached to the whole thing.
高回報的努力，與整個事情息息相關。

2209
02:00:23,400 --> 02:00:27,020
And people would devote their lives to it, take on significant risk.
人們會為此奉獻一生，承擔巨大的風險。

2210
02:00:27,020 --> 02:00:31,120
And then it would have leverage in code with lots of developers.
然後它將擁有由大量開發人員組成的程式碼槓桿。

2211
02:00:31,120 --> 02:00:35,760
It would have capital with investors putting money in and the founder's own capital.
它會有投資者投入的資金和創始人自己的資本。

2212
02:00:35,760 --> 02:00:39,760
And it would have labor of some of the highest quality labor that you can find, which is
它將擁有你能找到的一些最高品質的勞動力，也就是

2213
02:00:39,760 --> 02:00:43,540
high quality engineers and designers and marketers who are working on the company.
在公司工作的高品質工程師、設計師和行銷人員。

2214
02:00:43,540 --> 02:00:47,380
And then you may end up with a Trulia or a Redfin or a Zillow kind of company.
然後你可能會得到像 Trulia、Redfin 或 Zillow 這樣的公司。

2215
02:00:47,380 --> 02:00:50,380
And then the upside could potentially be in the billions of dollars or the hundreds of
然後，潛在的好處可能達到數十億美元或數億

2216
02:00:50,380 --> 02:00:51,380
millions of dollars.
美元。

2217
02:00:51,380 --> 02:00:57,620
So as you layer in more and more kinds of knowledge that can only be gained on the job
所以，當你疊加越來越多只能在工作中獲得的知識

2218
02:00:57,620 --> 02:01:02,300
and aren't common knowledge, and you layer in more and more accountability and risk taking,
而不是常識，並且你疊加越來越多的責任和風險承擔，

2219
02:01:02,300 --> 02:01:06,260
and you'll layer in more and more great people working on it and more and more capital on
你會疊加越來越多的優秀人才參與其中，以及越來越多的資本

2220
02:01:06,260 --> 02:01:11,580
it and more and more code and media on it, you keep expanding the scope of the opportunity
投入其中，還有越來越多的程式碼和媒體，你不斷擴大機會的範圍

2221
02:01:11,580 --> 02:01:15,360
all the way from the day laborer who might just literally be scrapping on the ground
從可能真的只是在地上撿破爛的日工

2222
02:01:15,360 --> 02:01:19,880
with their hands all the way up to somebody who started a real estate tech company and
用他們的雙手，一直到創辦了一家房地產科技公司並

2223
02:01:19,880 --> 02:01:21,680
then took it public.
將其上市的人。

2224
02:01:21,680 --> 02:01:23,960
We spoke about specific knowledge.
我們談到了特定知識。

2225
02:01:23,960 --> 02:01:25,640
We talked about accountability.
我們談到了責任。

2226
02:01:25,640 --> 02:01:27,840
We talked about leverage.
我們談到了槓桿。

2227
02:01:27,840 --> 02:01:34,960
The last skill that Naval talks about in his tweet storm is judgment, where he says that
Naval 在他的推文風暴中談到的最後一項技能是判斷力，他說

2228
02:01:34,960 --> 02:01:38,320
leverage is a force multiplier for your judgment.
槓桿是你判斷力的倍增器。

2229
02:01:38,320 --> 02:01:42,680
We are now living in an age of nearly infinite leverage and all the great fortunes are created
我們現在生活在一個幾乎無限槓桿的時代，所有巨大的財富都是通過槓桿創造的。

2230
02:01:42,680 --> 02:01:43,800
through leverage.
通過槓桿。

2231
02:01:43,800 --> 02:01:48,640
So your first job is to go and obtain leverage and you can obtain leverage through permission
所以你的首要任務是去獲得槓桿，你可以通過許可獲得槓桿

2232
02:01:48,640 --> 02:01:53,520
by taking risks and getting people to work for you or by raising capital or you can get
通過承擔風險並讓人們為你工作，或者通過籌集資金，或者你可以

2233
02:01:53,520 --> 02:01:58,000
leverage permissionlessly by learning how to code or becoming good communicator and
無需許可地獲得槓桿，通過學習如何編碼或成為優秀的溝通者

2234
02:01:58,000 --> 02:02:02,380
podcasting, broadcasting, creating videos, writing, etc.
播客、廣播、製作影片、寫作等等。

2235
02:02:02,380 --> 02:02:04,160
So that's how you get leverage.
這就是你如何獲得槓桿。

2236
02:02:04,160 --> 02:02:06,240
But once you have leverage, what do you do with it?
但一旦你有了槓桿，你會怎麼利用它呢？

2237
02:02:06,240 --> 02:02:09,640
Well, the first part of your career spent hustling to get leverage.
嗯，你職業生涯的第一部分是忙著去獲得槓桿。

2238
02:02:09,640 --> 02:02:13,720
Once you have the leverage, then you want to slow down a bit because your judgment really
一旦你有了槓桿，你就要慢下來一點，因為你的判斷力真的

2239
02:02:13,720 --> 02:02:14,720
matters.
很重要。

2240
02:02:14,720 --> 02:02:18,660
It's like you've gone from steering your sailboat around to now you're steering an ocean liner
這就像你從駕駛帆船，到現在駕駛一艘遠洋郵輪

2241
02:02:18,660 --> 02:02:19,660
or a tanker.
或油輪。

2242
02:02:19,660 --> 02:02:22,820
You have a lot more at risk, but you have a lot more to gain as well.
你的風險更大，但你獲得的也更多。

2243
02:02:22,820 --> 02:02:24,640
You're carrying a much higher payload.
你承載著更高的負載。

2244
02:02:24,640 --> 02:02:28,600
So in an age of infinite leverage, judgment becomes the most important skill.
所以在一個無限槓桿的時代，判斷力成為最重要的技能。

2245
02:02:28,600 --> 02:02:32,040
Warren Buffett is so wealthy now because of his judgment.
華倫·巴菲特現在如此富有，是因為他的判斷力。

2246
02:02:32,040 --> 02:02:35,720
Even if you were to take away all of Warren's money, tomorrow, investors would come out of
即使你明天拿走華倫所有的錢，投資者也會從

2247
02:02:35,720 --> 02:02:39,800
the woodwork and hand him $100 billion because they know his judgment is so good and they
暗處冒出來，給他1000億美元，因為他們知道他的判斷力非常好，他們

2248
02:02:39,800 --> 02:02:42,960
would give him a big chunk of that $100 billion to invest.
會把那1000億美元的一大部分給他投資。

2249
02:02:42,960 --> 02:02:49,720
So ultimately, everything else that you do is actually setting you up to apply your judgment.
所以歸根究底，你做的其他所有事情，實際上都是在為你應用你的判斷力做準備。

2250
02:02:49,720 --> 02:02:54,000
One of the big things that people rail on a CEO pay and for sure there's crony capitalism
人們抨擊CEO薪酬的一大原因是，當然，存在裙帶資本主義

2251
02:02:54,000 --> 02:02:58,120
that goes on where these CEOs control their boards and the boards give them too much money.
這些CEO控制他們的董事會，而董事會給他們太多的錢。

2252
02:02:58,120 --> 02:03:01,520
But there are certain CEOs who definitely earn their keep because their judgment is
但有些CEO絕對是物有所值，因為他們的判斷力

2253
02:03:01,520 --> 02:03:02,520
better.
更好。

2254
02:03:02,520 --> 02:03:06,960
If you're steering a big ship, if you're steering Google or Apple and your judgment is 10 or
如果你在駕駛一艘大船，如果你在駕駛Google或Apple，而你的判斷力比下一個人好10%或

2255
02:03:06,960 --> 02:03:12,120
20% better than the next person's, society will literally pay you hundreds of millions
20%，社會真的會多付你數億

2256
02:03:12,120 --> 02:03:16,120
of dollars more because you're steering a $100 billion ship.
美元，因為你在駕駛一艘價值1000億美元的船。

2257
02:03:16,120 --> 02:03:20,640
If you're on course 10 or 20% of the time more often than the other person, the compounding
如果你比另一個人有10%或20%的時間更常在正確的航道上，複利

2258
02:03:20,640 --> 02:03:24,640
results on that hundreds of billions of dollars you're managing will be so large that your
在你管理的數千億美元上的結果將會非常巨大，以至於你的

2259
02:03:24,640 --> 02:03:27,140
CEO pay will be dwarfed in comparison.
CEO薪酬相形見絀。

2260
02:03:27,140 --> 02:03:31,880
So demonstrated judgment, credibility around the judgment is so critical.
所以，展現出的判斷力，圍繞判斷力的信譽是如此關鍵。

2261
02:03:31,880 --> 02:03:36,480
Warren Buffett wins here because he has massive credibility.
華倫·巴菲特在這裡勝出，因為他有巨大的信譽。

2262
02:03:36,480 --> 02:03:38,000
He's been highly accountable.
他一直非常有責任感。

2263
02:03:38,000 --> 02:03:40,760
He's been right over and over in the public domain.
他在公共領域一再證明自己是正確的。

2264
02:03:40,760 --> 02:03:45,000
He's built a reputation for very high integrity so you can trust him.
他建立了一個非常高誠信的聲譽，所以你可以信任他。

2265
02:03:45,000 --> 02:03:50,800
So a person like that, people will throw infinite leverage behind him because of his judgment.
所以像那樣的人，人們會因為他的判斷力而給予他無限的槓桿。

2266
02:03:50,800 --> 02:03:52,660
Nobody asks him how hard he works.
沒有人問他工作有多努力。

2267
02:03:52,660 --> 02:03:55,240
Nobody asks him when he wakes up or when he goes to sleep.
沒有人問他什麼時候起床或什麼時候睡覺。

2268
02:03:55,240 --> 02:03:57,180
Did Warren just do your thing?
華倫，你就做你的事吧？

2269
02:03:57,180 --> 02:04:03,400
So especially demonstrated judgment with high accountability, clear track record is critical.
所以，特別是展現出的具有高度責任感、清晰紀錄的判斷力是至關重要的。

2270
02:04:03,400 --> 02:04:05,320
Let's define judgment.
讓我們來定義判斷力。

2271
02:04:05,320 --> 02:04:12,760
I would define it as knowing the long-term effects of your decisions or being able to
我會將其定義為知道你決策的長期影響，或者能夠

2272
02:04:12,760 --> 02:04:15,560
predict the long-term effects of your decisions.
預測你決策的長期影響。

2273
02:04:15,560 --> 02:04:16,560
It's funny.
這很有趣。

2274
02:04:16,560 --> 02:04:20,280
My definition of wisdom is knowing the long-term consequences of your actions.
我對智慧的定義是知道你行動的長期後果。

2275
02:04:20,280 --> 02:04:21,920
So they're not all that different.
所以它們並沒有那麼不同。

2276
02:04:21,920 --> 02:04:24,640
Wisdom is just judgment on a personal domain.
智慧只是個人領域的判斷。

2277
02:04:24,640 --> 02:04:27,480
Wisdom applied to external problems I think is judgment.
我認為，應用於外部問題的智慧就是判斷力。

2278
02:04:27,480 --> 02:04:29,440
So they're highly linked.
所以它們高度相關。

2279
02:04:29,440 --> 02:04:33,840
But yes, it's knowing the long-term consequences of your actions and then making kind of the
但是的，它是知道你行動的長期後果，然後做出那種

2280
02:04:33,840 --> 02:04:36,840
right decision to capitalize on that.
正確的決定來利用它。

2281
02:04:36,840 --> 02:04:38,560
Judgment is very hard to build up.
判斷力是很難建立的。

2282
02:04:38,560 --> 02:04:42,480
This is where both intellect and experience come in play.
這就是智力和經驗都發揮作用的地方。

2283
02:04:42,480 --> 02:04:45,680
There are many problems with the so-called intellectuals in the ivory tower, but one
象牙塔裡所謂的知識分子有很多問題，但其中一個

2284
02:04:45,680 --> 02:04:49,640
of the reasons why Nassim Taleb rails against them is because they have no skin in the game.
納西姆·塔雷伯抨擊他們的原因之一是他們沒有切身利益。

2285
02:04:49,640 --> 02:04:51,400
They have no real-world experience, right?
他們沒有實際經驗，對吧？

2286
02:04:51,400 --> 02:04:53,440
So they just apply purely intellect.
所以他們只是純粹地運用智力。

2287
02:04:53,440 --> 02:04:57,640
And intellect without any experience is often worse than useless because you get the confidence
而沒有任何經驗的智力，往往比無用還糟糕，因為你獲得了智力

2288
02:04:57,640 --> 02:05:00,780
that the intellect gives you and you get some of the credibility.
給你的信心，也獲得了一些信譽。

2289
02:05:00,780 --> 02:05:05,040
But because you had no skin in the game and you had no real experience and no real accountability,
但因為你沒有切身利益，沒有實際經驗，也沒有真正的責任，

2290
02:05:05,040 --> 02:05:06,340
you're just throwing darts.
你只是在亂擲飛鏢。

2291
02:05:06,340 --> 02:05:10,440
The real world is always far, far more complex than we can intellectualize.
現實世界總是比我們能理性化的要複雜得多。

2292
02:05:10,440 --> 02:05:15,000
And especially all the interesting fast-moving edge domains and problems, you can't get there
特別是所有有趣的、快速發展的前沿領域和問題，你無法

2293
02:05:15,000 --> 02:05:16,200
without experience.
沒有經驗就到達那裡。

2294
02:05:16,200 --> 02:05:22,840
So if you are smart and you iterate fast, it's not even you put 10,000 hours into something,
所以如果你聰明並且迭代速度快，甚至不是你投入一萬個小時去做某件事，

2295
02:05:22,840 --> 02:05:25,600
but you take 10,000 tries at something.
而是你嘗試一萬次。

2296
02:05:25,600 --> 02:05:30,060
If you are smart and you have a lot of quick iterations and you try to keep your emotions
如果你聰明，並且有很多快速的迭代，而且你試圖控制你的情緒

2297
02:05:30,060 --> 02:05:34,600
out of it, the people with the best judgment are actually among the least emotional.
置身事外，判斷力最好的人實際上是情緒最少的人之一。

2298
02:05:34,600 --> 02:05:38,400
A lot of the best investors are considered almost robotic in that regard, but I wouldn't
很多最好的投資者在這方面被認為幾乎是機器人，但我不會

2299
02:05:38,400 --> 02:05:43,680
be surprised if even the best entrepreneurs often come across as unemotional.
感到驚訝，即使是最好的企業家也常常給人冷漠的印象。

2300
02:05:43,680 --> 02:05:46,840
There is this archetype of the passionate entrepreneur and yeah, they have to care about what they're
有這樣一種充滿激情的企業家的原型，是的，他們必須關心他們

2301
02:05:46,840 --> 02:05:51,560
doing, but they also have to see very clearly what's actually happening.
在做什麼，但他們也必須非常清楚地看到實際發生了什麼。

2302
02:05:51,560 --> 02:05:55,280
And the thing that prevents you from seeing what's actually happening are your emotions.
而阻止你看到實際發生情況的是你的情緒。

2303
02:05:55,280 --> 02:05:59,880
Our emotions are constantly clouding our judgment and investing or in running companies or in
我們的情緒不斷地影響我們的判斷，無論是在投資、經營公司還是

2304
02:05:59,880 --> 02:06:04,960
building products or being an entrepreneur, emotions really get in the way.
打造產品或成為企業家，情緒真的會妨礙。

2305
02:06:04,960 --> 02:06:08,880
Emotions are what prevent you from seeing what's actually happening until you can no
情緒是阻止你看到實際情況的東西，直到你再也

2306
02:06:08,880 --> 02:06:13,040
longer resist the truth of what's happening, until it becomes too sudden and then you're
無法抗拒正在發生的真相，直到它變得太突然，然後你

2307
02:06:13,040 --> 02:06:17,880
forced into suffering, which is a breaking of this emotional fantasy that you had put
被迫陷入痛苦，這是對你所建立的情感幻想的

2308
02:06:17,880 --> 02:06:18,880
together.
打破。

2309
02:06:18,880 --> 02:06:24,040
To try and connect some of these concepts, I would say that first you're accountable
為了試圖連接這些概念，我會說首先你對

2310
02:06:24,040 --> 02:06:26,760
for your judgment.
你的判斷負責。

2311
02:06:26,760 --> 02:06:29,800
Judgment is the exercise of wisdom.
判斷力是智慧的運用。

2312
02:06:29,800 --> 02:06:37,740
Wisdom comes from experience and that experience can be accelerated through short iterations.
智慧來自經驗，而經驗可以通過短暫的迭代來加速。

2313
02:06:37,740 --> 02:06:42,680
And the reason why a lot of the top investors, a lot of the value investors, if you read
為什麼很多頂級投資者，很多價值投資者，如果你讀

2314
02:06:42,680 --> 02:06:46,840
Jeremy Grantham or you read Warren Buffett, you read up on Michael Burry, these people
Jeremy Grantham 或你讀 Warren Buffett，你研究 Michael Burry，這些人

2315
02:06:46,840 --> 02:06:51,040
sound like philosophers or they are philosophers or they're reading a lot of history books
聽起來像哲學家，或者他們是哲學家，或者他們讀了很多歷史書

2316
02:06:51,040 --> 02:06:52,040
or science books.
或科學書籍。

2317
02:06:52,040 --> 02:06:53,040
Like what are they doing?
他們在做什麼？

2318
02:06:53,040 --> 02:06:54,560
Shouldn't they be reading investment books?
他們不應該讀投資書籍嗎？

2319
02:06:54,560 --> 02:06:58,800
No, investment books are the worst place to learn about investment because investment
不，投資書籍是學習投資最糟糕的地方，因為投資

2320
02:06:58,800 --> 02:07:02,360
is a real world activity that is highly multivariate.
是一項高度多變的現實世界活動。

2321
02:07:02,360 --> 02:07:04,840
All the advantages are always being competed away.
所有的優勢總是被競爭掉。

2322
02:07:04,840 --> 02:07:06,400
It's always on the cutting edge.
它總是在前沿。

2323
02:07:06,400 --> 02:07:10,080
So what you actually just need is very, very broad based judgment and thinking.
所以你真正需要的只是非常、非常廣泛的判斷和思考。

2324
02:07:10,080 --> 02:07:15,060
And the best way to do that is to study everything, including a lot of philosophy.
而最好的方法就是學習一切，包括大量的哲學。

2325
02:07:15,060 --> 02:07:18,360
And philosophy also makes you more stoic, makes you less emotional.
而哲學也讓你更堅忍，讓你更少情緒化。

2326
02:07:18,360 --> 02:07:21,080
And so you make better decisions, you have better judgment.
所以你做出更好的決定，你有更好的判斷力。

2327
02:07:21,080 --> 02:07:25,280
One simple thing is I see, I go out on Twitter and it seems like half of Twitter is outraged
一件簡單的事是我看到，我上推特，似乎有一半的推特用戶在

2328
02:07:25,280 --> 02:07:26,920
at something at all times.
隨時都在對某事感到憤怒。

2329
02:07:26,920 --> 02:07:30,960
You can go within someone's Twitter feed and get at least some semblance of what it
你可以進入某人的推特動態，至少能看到一些

2330
02:07:30,960 --> 02:07:33,560
must be like to be in their head all the time.
一直待在他們腦子裡的感覺。

2331
02:07:33,560 --> 02:07:37,960
And the more outraged somebody is, I guarantee you, the worse their judgment is.
而一個人越是憤怒，我向你保證，他的判斷力就越差。

2332
02:07:37,960 --> 02:07:42,460
If someone's constantly tweeting political outrage and seems like an angry person getting
如果有人不斷地在推特上發表政治憤怒的言論，看起來像個憤怒的人，

2333
02:07:42,460 --> 02:07:46,240
into fights, you don't want to hand this person the keys to your car, let alone the keys to
捲入爭吵，你不會想把你的車鑰匙交給這個人，更不用說

2334
02:07:46,240 --> 02:07:47,860
your company.
公司的鑰匙了。

2335
02:07:47,860 --> 02:07:51,560
So we covered the skills that you need to get rich.
所以我們介紹了致富所需的技能。

2336
02:07:51,560 --> 02:08:00,340
That was specific knowledge, accountability, leverage, judgment, and lifelong learning.
那就是特定知識、責任、槓桿、判斷力和終身學習。

2337
02:08:00,340 --> 02:08:05,880
Let's talk a little bit about the importance of working hard and valuing your time.
讓我們談談努力工作和珍惜時間的重要性。

2338
02:08:05,880 --> 02:08:09,820
So no one is going to value you more than you value yourself.
所以沒有人會比你更看重你自己。

2339
02:08:09,820 --> 02:08:16,040
So you just have to set a very high personal hourly rate and you have to stick to it.
所以你必須設定一個非常高的個人時薪，並且要堅持下去。

2340
02:08:16,040 --> 02:08:19,560
So even since when I was young, I just decided that I was worth a lot more than the market
所以即使在我年輕的時候，我就決定我比市場

2341
02:08:19,560 --> 02:08:22,200
thought I was worth, but I started treating myself that way.
認為的價值要高得多，但我開始那樣對待自己。

2342
02:08:22,200 --> 02:08:25,320
So always factor your time into every decision.
所以總是要把你的時間考慮到每一個決定中。

2343
02:08:25,320 --> 02:08:26,320
How much time does it take?
這需要多少時間？

2344
02:08:26,320 --> 02:08:30,200
Oh, it's going to take me an hour to get across town to get this thing?
哦，我要花一個小時穿過城鎮去拿這個東西？

2345
02:08:30,200 --> 02:08:34,160
Well, I value myself at $100 an hour, that's throwing $100 out of my pocket.
嗯，我認為自己每小時價值100美元，這等於從我口袋裡扔出100美元。

2346
02:08:34,160 --> 02:08:35,240
Am I going to do that?
我會這麼做嗎？

2347
02:08:35,240 --> 02:08:38,600
You buy something from Amazon, they screwed it up, you have to return it.
你在亞馬遜買了東西，他們搞砸了，你得退貨。

2348
02:08:38,600 --> 02:08:40,640
Is it worth your time to return it?
退貨值得你花時間嗎？

2349
02:08:40,640 --> 02:08:42,300
Is it worth the mental hassle?
值得花這個心力嗎？

2350
02:08:42,300 --> 02:08:47,240
Keep in mind that you have less work hours, you have less mentally high output hours.
請記住，你的工作時間更少，你的高心智產出時間也更少。

2351
02:08:47,240 --> 02:08:51,320
Do you want to use them to run errands and solve little problems or do you want to save
你想用它們來跑腿和解決小問題，還是想把它們留給

2352
02:08:51,320 --> 02:08:52,560
them for the big stuff?
大事？

2353
02:08:52,560 --> 02:08:55,560
All the great scientists were terrible at managing their household life.
所有偉大的科學家都不擅長管理他們的家庭生活。

2354
02:08:55,560 --> 02:09:00,560
None of them had a clean organized room or made all their social events on time or sent
沒有一個人有乾淨整潔的房間，或者按時參加所有的社交活動，或者寄出

2355
02:09:00,560 --> 02:09:01,880
their thank you cards.
他們的感謝卡。

2356
02:09:01,880 --> 02:09:05,340
You can spend your life however you want, but if you want to get rich, it has to be your
你可以隨心所欲地過你的生活，但如果你想致富，它必須是你的

2357
02:09:05,340 --> 02:09:09,920
number one overwhelming desire, which means that it has to come before anything else,
第一壓倒性的慾望，這意味著它必須排在任何其他事情之前，

2358
02:09:09,920 --> 02:09:11,640
which means you can't be penny pinching.
這意味著你不能斤斤計較。

2359
02:09:11,640 --> 02:09:12,900
This is what people don't understand.
這是人們不理解的。

2360
02:09:12,900 --> 02:09:16,480
You can penny pinch your way to a basic sustenance.
你可以省吃儉用來維持基本生計。

2361
02:09:16,480 --> 02:09:20,960
You can keep your expenses low, maybe retire early and not spend too much and that's perfectly
你可以保持低開銷，也許提早退休，不要花太多錢，這完全

2362
02:09:20,960 --> 02:09:23,080
valid, but we're here to talk about wealth creation.
可以，但我們在這裡是討論創造財富。

2363
02:09:23,080 --> 02:09:27,080
And if you're going to do that, then that has to be your number one overwhelming priority.
如果你要這麼做，那它必須是你首要的、壓倒一切的優先事項。

2364
02:09:27,080 --> 02:09:31,320
So fast forward to your wealthy self and pick some intermediate hourly rate.
所以快進到富裕的你，並選擇一個中間的時薪。

2365
02:09:31,320 --> 02:09:35,720
For me, believe it or not, back when you could have hired me, which now obviously you can't,
對我來說，信不信由你，在你可以僱用我的時候，現在顯然你不能，

2366
02:09:35,720 --> 02:09:39,680
but back when you could have hired me, and this was true a decade ago or even two decades
但在你可以僱用我的時候，這在十年前甚至是二十年前都是真的

2367
02:09:39,680 --> 02:09:43,920
ago before I had any real money, my hourly rate, I used to say to myself over and over
在我有任何真正的錢之前，我的時薪，我曾經一遍又一遍地對自己說

2368
02:09:43,920 --> 02:09:45,520
is $5,000 an hour.
是每小時5000美元。

2369
02:09:45,520 --> 02:09:48,760
Today when I look back, really it was about a thousand dollars an hour.
今天我回顧，其實大約是每小時一千美元。

2370
02:09:48,760 --> 02:09:52,280
And of course I still ended up doing stupid things like arguing with the electrician or
當然我還是會做一些蠢事，比如和電工吵架或者

2371
02:09:52,280 --> 02:09:54,900
returning the broken speaker, but I shouldn't have.
退回壞掉的喇叭，但我不應該這樣。

2372
02:09:54,900 --> 02:09:57,200
And I did a lot less than any of my friends would.
而且我做的比我的任何朋友都少得多。

2373
02:09:57,200 --> 02:10:01,280
And I would make a theatrical show out of throwing something in the trash pile or giving
我會把東西扔進垃圾堆或捐給

2374
02:10:01,280 --> 02:10:05,160
it to Salvation Army rather than trying to return it or handing something to people rather
救世軍，而不是試圖退回它，或者把東西交給別人而不是

2375
02:10:05,160 --> 02:10:06,200
than trying to fix it.
試圖修復它，搞得像在演戲。

2376
02:10:06,200 --> 02:10:09,900
I would argue with my girlfriends and even today to my wife, like, I don't do that.
我會和我的女朋友們爭論，甚至今天對我的妻子說，我不會那樣做。

2377
02:10:09,900 --> 02:10:11,320
That's not a problem that I solve.
那不是我解決的問題。

2378
02:10:11,320 --> 02:10:15,100
I still argue that with my mother when she hands me like little to do's, I just don't
我仍然和我的母親爭論，當她給我一些小事要做時，我就是不

2379
02:10:15,100 --> 02:10:16,100
do that.
做那個。

2380
02:10:16,100 --> 02:10:17,520
I would rather hire you an assistant.
我寧願給你請個助理。

2381
02:10:17,520 --> 02:10:19,680
And this was true even when I didn't have money.
即使我沒有錢的時候也是如此。

2382
02:10:19,680 --> 02:10:23,220
Another way of thinking about something is that if you can outsource something or not
另一種思考方式是，如果你能把某件事外包或

2383
02:10:23,220 --> 02:10:26,940
do something for less than your hourly rate, outsource it or don't do it.
以低於你時薪的價格不做某件事，就外包它或不做它。

2384
02:10:26,940 --> 02:10:30,200
So if you can hire someone to do it for less than your hourly rate, hire them.
所以如果你能以低於你時薪的價格僱用某人來做，就僱用他們。

2385
02:10:30,200 --> 02:10:31,680
That even includes things like cooking.
這甚至包括像做飯這樣的事情。

2386
02:10:31,680 --> 02:10:35,440
Now you may want to eat your healthy home cooked meals, but if you can outsource it, do that
現在你可能想吃你健康的家常菜，但如果你能外包，就那樣做

2387
02:10:35,440 --> 02:10:36,440
instead.
吧。

2388
02:10:36,440 --> 02:10:39,120
And I know some people will say, well, what about the joy of life and what about getting
我知道有些人會說，嗯，生活的樂趣呢？還有什麼是關於得到

2389
02:10:39,120 --> 02:10:40,120
it right just your way?
就按你的方式把它做對呢？

2390
02:10:40,120 --> 02:10:43,160
Sure, you can do that, but you're not going to be wealthy because now you've made something
當然，你可以那麼做，但你不會富有，因為現在你把某件事

2391
02:10:43,160 --> 02:10:44,640
else a priority.
變成了優先事項。

2392
02:10:44,640 --> 02:10:47,360
Paul Graham said it pretty well for Y Combinator startups.
保羅·格雷厄姆對 Y Combinator 的新創公司說得很好。

2393
02:10:47,360 --> 02:10:50,600
He said you should be working on your product and getting product market fit and you should
他說你應該專注於你的產品，找到產品市場契合度，並且你應該

2394
02:10:50,600 --> 02:10:52,120
be exercising and eating healthy.
運動和健康飲食。

2395
02:10:52,120 --> 02:10:53,120
Like that's about it.
差不多就這些了。

2396
02:10:53,120 --> 02:10:55,840
That's kind of all you have time for while you're on this mission.
當你在執行這個任務時，你大概只有時間做這些。

2397
02:10:55,840 --> 02:11:00,480
So set a very high hourly aspirational rate for yourself and stick to it.
所以為自己設定一個非常高的、有抱負的時薪，並堅持下去。

2398
02:11:00,480 --> 02:11:03,600
And it should seem and feel absurdly high.
而且它應該看起來和感覺上都高得離譜。

2399
02:11:03,600 --> 02:11:05,440
If it doesn't, it's not high enough.
如果不是，那就是不夠高。

2400
02:11:05,440 --> 02:11:07,860
And whatever you picked, my advice to you would be raise it.
不管你選了什麼，我給你的建議是提高它。

2401
02:11:07,860 --> 02:11:11,760
Like I said, for myself, even before I had money for the longest time, I used $5,000
就像我說的，對我自己而言，即使在我很長一段時間沒有錢之前，我用的是5000美元

2402
02:11:11,760 --> 02:11:12,760
an hour.
一小時。

2403
02:11:12,760 --> 02:11:15,800
And if you extrapolate that out into what it looks like as an annual salary, it's multiple
如果你把它推算成年薪，那就是數百

2404
02:11:15,800 --> 02:11:17,200
millions of dollars per year.
萬美元一年。

2405
02:11:17,200 --> 02:11:18,960
Ironically, I actually think I've beaten it.
諷刺的是，我其實覺得我已經超越了它。

2406
02:11:18,960 --> 02:11:22,560
When I look back, because I'm not the hardest working person, I'm actually kind of a lazy
回顧過去，因為我不是最努力的人，我其實有點懶

2407
02:11:22,560 --> 02:11:23,560
person.
惰的人。

2408
02:11:23,560 --> 02:11:26,240
I've had bursts of energy where I'm really motivated with some things.
我曾有過精力爆發的時候，對某些事情非常有動力。

2409
02:11:26,240 --> 02:11:30,480
So if I actually look at how much I've earned per actual hour that I put in, it's probably
所以如果我真的看我每投入一小時賺了多少錢，可能

2410
02:11:30,480 --> 02:11:32,200
quite a bit higher than that.
比那高得多。

2411
02:11:32,200 --> 02:11:33,320
Let's talk about hard work.
我們來談談努力工作。

2412
02:11:33,320 --> 02:11:36,600
There's this battle that happens on Twitter a lot between should you work hard and should
推特上經常有這樣一場爭論，關於你是否應該努力工作

2413
02:11:36,600 --> 02:11:37,600
you not.
或者不應該。

2414
02:11:37,600 --> 02:11:40,400
Like David Hauser is on there saying, it's like you're slave driving people.
比如 David Hauser 在上面說，這就像你在奴役別人。

2415
02:11:40,400 --> 02:11:43,760
And Keith Raboi is always on there saying like, no, all the great founders work their
而 Keith Rabois 總是在上面說，不，所有偉大的創始人都工作到

2416
02:11:43,760 --> 02:11:44,920
fingers to the bone.
筋疲力盡。

2417
02:11:44,920 --> 02:11:46,640
And they're talking past each other.
而他們在雞同鴨講。

2418
02:11:46,640 --> 02:11:48,480
First of all, they're talking about two different things.
首先，他們在說兩件不同的事。

2419
02:11:48,480 --> 02:11:52,240
David is talking about employees in a lifestyle business, which is fine.
David 談論的是生活風格企業中的員工，這沒問題。

2420
02:11:52,240 --> 02:11:55,960
Your number one thing in life if you're doing that is not getting wealthy.
如果你那樣做，你人生中最重要的事情就不是致富。

2421
02:11:55,960 --> 02:11:58,640
You have a job, you also have your family, you also have your life.
你有工作，你也有家庭，你也有你的生活。

2422
02:11:58,640 --> 02:12:01,080
But Keith is talking about the Olympics of startups.
但 Keith 談論的是新創公司的奧運會。

2423
02:12:01,080 --> 02:12:04,320
He's talking about the person going for the gold medal and trying to build a multi-billion
他說的是那個爭取金牌、試圖建立一個數十億

2424
02:12:04,320 --> 02:12:05,520
dollar public company.
美元上市公司的人。

2425
02:12:05,520 --> 02:12:07,880
That person has to get everything right.
那個人必須把每件事都做對。

2426
02:12:07,880 --> 02:12:09,380
They have to have great judgment.
他們必須有很好的判斷力。

2427
02:12:09,380 --> 02:12:11,040
They have to pick the right thing to work on.
他們必須選擇正確的事情來做。

2428
02:12:11,040 --> 02:12:15,200
They have to recruit the right team and they have to work crazy hard because they're basically
他們必須招募對的團隊，而且他們必須瘋狂地努力工作，因為他們基本上

2429
02:12:15,200 --> 02:12:17,240
engaged in a competitive sprint.
是在進行一場競爭性的衝刺。

2430
02:12:17,240 --> 02:12:22,360
So if getting wealthy is your goal, you are going to have to work as hard as you can,
所以如果致富是你的目標，你就必須盡可能地努力工作，

2431
02:12:22,360 --> 02:12:27,480
but hard work is absolutely no substitute for who you work with and what you work on.
但努力工作絕對不能替代你與誰共事以及你從事什麼工作。

2432
02:12:27,480 --> 02:12:30,600
What you work on is probably the most important thing.
你從事的工作可能是最重要的事。

2433
02:12:30,600 --> 02:12:35,280
Finding product market founder fit to expand on Mark Andreessen's definition.
找到產品-市場-創辦人的契合度，這是對馬克·安德森定義的擴展。

2434
02:12:35,280 --> 02:12:38,840
He came up with product market fit, but I would add product market founder fit, which
他提出了產品市場契合度，但我會加上產品市場創辦人契合度，也就是

2435
02:12:38,840 --> 02:12:42,140
is how well you are personally suited to that business.
你個人有多適合那個事業。

2436
02:12:42,140 --> 02:12:45,160
The combination of that three, that should be your overwhelming goal.
這三者的結合，應該是你壓倒性的目標。

2437
02:12:45,160 --> 02:12:49,160
And you can save yourself a lot of time if you pick the right area to work in.
如果你選擇對的領域工作，你可以省下很多時間。

2438
02:12:49,160 --> 02:12:52,640
Picking the right people to work with is the next most important piece.
選擇對的人共事是第二重要的部分。

2439
02:12:52,640 --> 02:12:56,320
Then third comes how hard you work, but they're like three legs of a stool.
然後第三是你工作有多努力，但它們就像凳子的三條腿。

2440
02:12:56,320 --> 02:12:59,440
If you shortchange on any one of them, the whole stool is going to fall down.
如果你在哪一條上偷工減料，整個凳子都會倒下。

2441
02:12:59,440 --> 02:13:02,520
So it's not like you can pick one over the other that easily.
所以並不是說你可以輕易地選擇其中一個而放棄另一個。

2442
02:13:02,520 --> 02:13:07,280
So the order of operations when you're building a business is, or even building your career,
所以當你在建立事業，或甚至建立你的職涯時，操作的順序是，

2443
02:13:07,280 --> 02:13:10,120
is first figure out what should I be doing?
首先弄清楚我應該做什麼？

2444
02:13:10,120 --> 02:13:13,160
What is something where there is a market that is emerging?
什麼是市場正在興起的地方？

2445
02:13:13,160 --> 02:13:16,800
There's a product that I can build that I'm excited to work on and something where I have
有一個我可以打造、我興奮去做的產品，而且是我有

2446
02:13:16,800 --> 02:13:18,920
specific knowledge and I'm really into it.
特定知識並且我真的很有興趣的東西。

2447
02:13:18,920 --> 02:13:21,640
And then second, surround yourself with the best people possible.
然後第二，讓自己身邊圍繞著最優秀的人。

2448
02:13:21,640 --> 02:13:25,820
And no matter how high your bar is, raise your bar because you can never be working
不管你的標準有多高，都要提高你的標準，因為你永遠不可能

2449
02:13:25,820 --> 02:13:28,000
with other people who are great enough.
和足夠優秀的人共事。

2450
02:13:28,000 --> 02:13:30,920
If there's someone greater out there to work with, you should go work with them.
如果外面有更優秀的人可以合作，你就應該去和他們合作。

2451
02:13:30,920 --> 02:13:34,720
I advise a lot of people who are looking at which start to join in Silicon Valley, I say
我建議很多想加入矽谷初創公司的人，我說

2452
02:13:34,720 --> 02:13:38,900
basically pick the one that's going to have the best alumni network for you in the future.
基本上選擇一個未來能為你提供最佳校友網絡的公司。

2453
02:13:38,900 --> 02:13:40,140
Look at the PayPal mafia.
看看PayPal黑手黨。

2454
02:13:40,140 --> 02:13:42,940
They work with a bunch of geniuses, so they all got rich.
他們和一群天才合作，所以他們都致富了。

2455
02:13:42,940 --> 02:13:48,640
So just try and pick based on the highest intelligence, energy and integrity people that you can find.
所以就試著根據你能找到的最高智力、精力和正直的人來選擇。

2456
02:13:48,640 --> 02:13:53,200
And then finally, once you've picked the right thing to work on and the right people to work
然後最後，一旦你選擇了正確的工作內容和正確的合作夥伴

2457
02:13:53,200 --> 02:13:55,520
with, then you work as hard as you can.
，然後你就盡你所能地努力工作。

2458
02:13:55,520 --> 02:13:57,720
This is where the mythology gets a little crazy.
這就是神話變得有點瘋狂的地方。

2459
02:13:57,720 --> 02:13:59,700
People work 80, 120 hour weeks.
人們每週工作80、120小時。

2460
02:13:59,700 --> 02:14:02,020
A lot of that's just status signaling.
很多都只是在炫耀地位。

2461
02:14:02,020 --> 02:14:03,020
It's showing off.
那是在炫耀。

2462
02:14:03,020 --> 02:14:08,500
Nobody really works 80 to 120 hours a week sustained at high output with mental clarity.
沒有人真的能持續每週工作80到120小時，同時保持高產出和清晰的頭腦。

2463
02:14:08,500 --> 02:14:09,500
Your brain breaks down.
你的大腦會崩潰。

2464
02:14:09,500 --> 02:14:11,720
You just won't have good ideas.
你就是不會有好點子。

2465
02:14:11,720 --> 02:14:16,440
So really the way people tend to work most effectively, especially in knowledge work,
所以人們最高效的工作方式，尤其是在知識工作中，

2466
02:14:16,440 --> 02:14:21,200
is they sprint as hard as they can while they're working on something and they're inspired
是他們在做某件事時盡全力衝刺，他們受到啟發

2467
02:14:21,200 --> 02:14:24,500
and they're passionate and then they rest to take long breaks.
充滿熱情，然後他們休息，放長假。

2468
02:14:24,500 --> 02:14:28,240
It's more like a lion hunting and much less like a marathon runner running.
這更像獅子狩獵，而不太像馬拉松選手跑步。

2469
02:14:28,240 --> 02:14:32,420
So you sprint, then you rest, you reassess and then you try again.
所以你衝刺，然後休息，你重新評估，然後再試一次。

2470
02:14:32,420 --> 02:14:35,940
And what you end up doing is you end up building a marathon of sprints.
而你最終做的，就是建立一個由衝刺組成的馬拉松。

2471
02:14:35,940 --> 02:14:39,120
Nibby just made the point to me on the side that inspiration is perishable, which is a
Nibby 剛剛在一旁向我指出，靈感是易逝的，這是一個

2472
02:14:39,120 --> 02:14:40,120
very good point.
非常好的觀點。

2473
02:14:40,120 --> 02:14:42,920
If you have your inspiration, do it right then and there.
如果你有靈感，就立刻去做。

2474
02:14:42,920 --> 02:14:45,040
This happens to me a lot with my tweet storms.
我的推文風暴就經常發生這種情況。

2475
02:14:45,040 --> 02:14:48,000
I've actually come up with a whole bunch of additional tweet storms besides the ones that
除了已經發布的那些，我其實還想出了一大堆額外的推文風暴

2476
02:14:48,000 --> 02:14:51,880
are already out there, but sometimes I just hesitate or I just pause and then it just
已經在那裡了，但有時我只是猶豫或停頓，然後它就

2477
02:14:51,880 --> 02:14:52,880
dies.
死了。

2478
02:14:52,880 --> 02:14:56,520
And what I've learned is if I'm inspired to write a blog post or to publish a tweet
我學到的是，如果我有靈感寫部落格文章或發布推文

2479
02:14:56,520 --> 02:14:58,680
storm, I should probably do it right away.
風暴，我應該馬上就做。

2480
02:14:58,680 --> 02:15:00,000
Otherwise it's not going to get out there.
否則它就發不出來了。

2481
02:15:00,000 --> 02:15:01,280
I won't come back to it.
我不會再回頭做它。

2482
02:15:01,280 --> 02:15:06,340
So inspiration is a beautiful and powerful thing and when you have it, it just sees it.
所以靈感是美好而強大的東西，當你擁有它時，它就看到了。

2483
02:15:06,340 --> 02:15:08,120
So people talk about impatience.
所以人們談論不耐煩。

2484
02:15:08,120 --> 02:15:09,120
When do you know to be impatient?
你什麼時候知道該不耐煩？

2485
02:15:09,120 --> 02:15:10,400
When do you know to be patient?
你什麼時候知道該有耐心？

2486
02:15:10,400 --> 02:15:15,440
My glib tweet on this was impatience with actions and patience with the results.
我對此的輕率推文是「對行動不耐煩，對結果有耐心」。

2487
02:15:15,440 --> 02:15:18,120
And I think that's actually a good philosophy for life.
我認為這其實是一個很好的人生哲學。

2488
02:15:18,120 --> 02:15:20,240
Anything you have to do, just get it done.
任何你必須做的事，就把它做完。

2489
02:15:20,240 --> 02:15:21,240
Why wait?
為什麼要等？

2490
02:15:21,240 --> 02:15:22,240
You're not getting any younger.
你不會變年輕了。

2491
02:15:22,240 --> 02:15:23,240
Your life is slipping away.
你的生命正在流逝。

2492
02:15:23,240 --> 02:15:25,340
You don't want to spend it waiting in line.
你不想把時間花在排隊上。

2493
02:15:25,340 --> 02:15:27,760
You don't want to spend it traveling back and forth.
你不想把時間花在來回奔波上。

2494
02:15:27,760 --> 02:15:32,040
You don't want to spend it doing things that you know ultimately aren't part of your mission.
你不想花時間去做那些你知道最終不屬於你使命的事情。

2495
02:15:32,040 --> 02:15:36,880
And when you do them, you want to do them as quickly as you can while you do them well
當你做這些事時，你希望盡快把它們做好，

2496
02:15:36,880 --> 02:15:38,280
with your full attention.
並且全神貫注。

2497
02:15:38,280 --> 02:15:40,520
But then you just have to give up on the results.
但接著你就必須放棄對結果的執著。

2498
02:15:40,520 --> 02:15:43,480
You have to be patient with the results because you're dealing with complex systems.
你必須對結果有耐心，因為你在處理複雜的系統。

2499
02:15:43,480 --> 02:15:44,740
You're dealing with lots of people.
你在和很多人打交道。

2500
02:15:44,740 --> 02:15:47,160
It takes a long time for markets to adopt products.
市場接受產品需要很長的時間。

2501
02:15:47,160 --> 02:15:50,120
It takes time for people to get comfortable working with each other.
人們需要時間來適應彼此合作。

2502
02:15:50,120 --> 02:15:54,500
It takes time for great products to emerge as you polish away, polish away, polish away.
偉大的產品需要時間才能出現，因為你不斷地打磨、打磨、再打磨。

2503
02:15:54,500 --> 02:15:57,500
So impatience with actions, patience with results.
所以對行動不耐煩，對結果有耐心。

2504
02:15:57,500 --> 02:15:59,600
And as Nibby said, inspiration is perishable.
正如 Nibby 所說，靈感是易逝的。

2505
02:15:59,600 --> 02:16:02,920
So when you have inspiration, act on it right then and there.
所以當你有靈感時，就立刻行動。

2506
02:16:02,920 --> 02:16:07,200
If I have a problem that I discover in one of my businesses that needs to be solved, I
如果我在我的一個事業中發現一個需要解決的問題，我

2507
02:16:07,200 --> 02:16:10,800
won't sleep until at least the resolution is in motion.
至少要到解決方案開始進行我才會睡覺。

2508
02:16:10,800 --> 02:16:12,400
And this is just a personal feeling.
這只是個人感覺。

2509
02:16:12,400 --> 02:16:14,960
But if I'm on the board of a company, I'll call the CEO.
但如果我是公司董事會成員，我會打電話給CEO。

2510
02:16:14,960 --> 02:16:17,520
If I'm running the company, I'll call my reports.
如果我經營公司，我會打電話給我的下屬。

2511
02:16:17,520 --> 02:16:21,160
If I'm responsible, I'll get on there right then and there and solve it.
如果我是負責人，我會立刻著手解決它。

2512
02:16:21,160 --> 02:16:25,320
If I don't solve a problem, the moment it happens or I don't start moving towards solving
如果我不在問題發生的那一刻解決它，或者不開始著手解決

2513
02:16:25,320 --> 02:16:27,520
the moment happens, I have no peace.
問題，我就無法安寧。

2514
02:16:27,520 --> 02:16:28,520
I have no rest.
我無法休息。

2515
02:16:28,520 --> 02:16:31,180
I have no happiness until that problem is solved.
直到那個問題解決，我才會有幸福感。

2516
02:16:31,180 --> 02:16:32,820
So solve it as quickly as possible.
所以要盡快解決它。

2517
02:16:32,820 --> 02:16:35,000
I literally won't sleep until it's solved.
我真的會不睡覺直到它被解決。

2518
02:16:35,000 --> 02:16:38,560
Maybe that's a personal characteristic, but it's worked out well in business.
或許這是個人特質，但在商場上效果很好。

2519
02:16:38,560 --> 02:16:41,460
We squander our time with a death of a thousand cuts.
我們因千刀萬剮而浪費時間。

2520
02:16:41,460 --> 02:16:45,680
So another tweet I had was, "You should be too busy to do coffee while still keeping
所以我另一條推文是：「你應該忙到沒時間喝咖啡，同時還能保持

2521
02:16:45,680 --> 02:16:47,560
an uncluttered calendar."
一個不雜亂的行事曆。」

2522
02:16:47,560 --> 02:16:51,560
People who know me know that I'm famous for simultaneously doing two things.
認識我的人都知道，我以同時做兩件事而聞名。

2523
02:16:51,560 --> 02:16:53,520
One is having a very clean calendar.
一是擁有一個非常乾淨的行事曆。

2524
02:16:53,520 --> 02:16:55,240
I have almost no meetings on it.
上面幾乎沒有會議。

2525
02:16:55,240 --> 02:16:57,840
And there are people that I meet when they see my calendar, they almost weep.
當我遇到的人看到我的行事曆時，他們幾乎要哭了。

2526
02:16:57,840 --> 02:17:00,480
Well, at the same time, I am busy all the time.
嗯，與此同時，我一直很忙。

2527
02:17:00,480 --> 02:17:02,160
I'm always doing something.
我總是在做些什麼。

2528
02:17:02,160 --> 02:17:06,920
And it's usually "work related," but it is whatever the highest impact thing is that
而且通常是「與工作相關」，但它是當時需要做的、影響力最大

2529
02:17:06,920 --> 02:17:10,640
needs to be done at that time and that I'm most interested and inspired about.
而且我最感興趣和最有靈感的事情。

2530
02:17:10,640 --> 02:17:16,040
But the only way to do that is to constantly, ruthlessly decline meetings.
但唯一的方法就是不斷地、無情地拒絕會議。

2531
02:17:16,040 --> 02:17:18,440
People want to do coffee and build relationships.
人們想喝咖啡、建立關係。

2532
02:17:18,440 --> 02:17:22,520
And that's fine early in your career when you're still exploring, but later in your career
在職涯早期，當你還在探索時，這沒問題，但在職涯後期

2533
02:17:22,520 --> 02:17:25,680
when you're exploiting and there are more things coming at you than you have time for,
當你在利用機會，而且事情多到你沒時間處理時，

2534
02:17:25,680 --> 02:17:28,240
you have to ruthlessly cut meetings out of your life.
你必須無情地把會議從你的生活中剔除。

2535
02:17:28,240 --> 02:17:31,360
If someone wants to do a meeting, see if you can do it with a phone call instead.
如果有人想開會，看看你是否可以用電話代替。

2536
02:17:31,360 --> 02:17:34,320
If they want to do a phone call, see if they can do it with an email instead.
如果他們想打電話，看看他們是否可以用電子郵件代替。

2537
02:17:34,320 --> 02:17:37,280
If they want to do it with email, see if they can do it with a text message instead.
如果他們想用電子郵件，看看他們是否可以用簡訊代替。

2538
02:17:37,280 --> 02:17:40,160
If they're text messaging, you should probably be ignoring most text messages unless they're
如果他們在發簡訊，你可能應該忽略大多數簡訊，除非它們是

2539
02:17:40,160 --> 02:17:41,280
true emergencies.
真正的緊急情況。

2540
02:17:41,280 --> 02:17:45,600
So one has to be utterly ruthless about dodging meetings.
所以一個人必須對躲避會議極度無情。

2541
02:17:45,600 --> 02:17:50,040
When you do do meetings, do walking meetings, do standing meetings, keep them short, keep
當你真的要開會時，開走動會議、站立會議，讓會議簡短，

2542
02:17:50,040 --> 02:17:52,320
them actionable, keep them small.
讓它們有行動性，保持小規模。

2543
02:17:52,320 --> 02:17:55,860
Any meeting with eight people and it's sitting on a conference table, nothing is getting
任何有八個人參加的會議，坐在會議桌上，都不會有

2544
02:17:55,860 --> 02:17:57,040
done in that meeting.
任何成果。

2545
02:17:57,040 --> 02:17:59,980
You're literally just dying one hour at a time.
你簡直就是在一個小時一個小時地死去。

2546
02:17:59,980 --> 02:18:04,880
Even coffee reminds me of an old quote, I think from Steve Jobs when they asked him,
甚至咖啡都讓我想起一句老話，我想是賈伯斯說的，當他們問他，

2547
02:18:04,880 --> 02:18:09,320
"Hey, why doesn't Apple come to conventions?" or "Why don't you come to my convention?"
「嘿，為什麼蘋果不參加大會？」或「你為什麼不來我的大會？」

2548
02:18:09,320 --> 02:18:12,800
And his response was, "Well, then because we wouldn't be here working."
而他的回答是：「嗯，那樣我們就不會在這裡工作了。」

2549
02:18:12,800 --> 02:18:17,960
Yeah, I used to have a tough time turning people down for meetings, but now I just tell
是的，我以前很難拒絕別人的會議邀請，但現在我直接

2550
02:18:17,960 --> 02:18:18,960
them outright.
告訴他們。

2551
02:18:18,960 --> 02:18:20,920
I just say, "Look, I don't do non-transactional meetings.
我就說：「看，我不開非交易性的會議。

2552
02:18:20,920 --> 02:18:22,840
I don't do meetings without a strict agenda.
我不會開沒有嚴格議程的會議。

2553
02:18:22,840 --> 02:18:24,960
I don't do meetings unless we absolutely have to."
除非我們非開不可，否則我不開會。」

2554
02:18:24,960 --> 02:18:25,960
Nivi used to do this.
Nivi 以前也這樣做。

2555
02:18:25,960 --> 02:18:29,040
He would email people when they would ask Nivi and I for a meeting, like coffee meeting,
當有人邀請 Nivi 和我開會，比如喝咖啡的會議時，他會發郵件

2556
02:18:29,040 --> 02:18:30,040
get to know you.
認識一下。

2557
02:18:30,040 --> 02:18:33,200
He would say, "We don't do meetings unless it's life and death urgent."
他會說：「我們不開會，除非是生死攸關的緊急情況。」

2558
02:18:33,200 --> 02:18:36,640
And then that person asked me to respond, "Yeah, it's life and death urgent," or "There's
然後那個人要我回覆：「是的，是生死攸關的緊急情況，」或者「沒有

2559
02:18:36,640 --> 02:18:37,680
no meeting."
會議。」

2560
02:18:37,680 --> 02:18:44,480
When you have something important or something valuable, other busy, interesting people will
當你有重要或有價值的東西時，其他忙碌、有趣的人會

2561
02:18:44,480 --> 02:18:45,480
meet with you.
和你見面。

2562
02:18:45,480 --> 02:18:48,920
Your calling card has to be, "Hey, here's what I've done.
你的名片必須是：「嘿，這是我做過的事。

2563
02:18:48,920 --> 02:18:50,400
Here's what I can show you.
這是我可以給你看的。

2564
02:18:50,400 --> 02:18:53,920
Let's meet and I'll be respectful of your time if this is useful to you."
如果這對你有用，我們見個面，我會尊重你的時間。」

2565
02:18:53,920 --> 02:18:58,080
And I find that there are very busy, important people who will take your meeting, but you
我發現有些非常忙碌、重要的人會接受你的會議，但你

2566
02:18:58,080 --> 02:19:00,240
have to come with a proper calling card.
必須帶著一張像樣的名片來。

2567
02:19:00,240 --> 02:19:04,480
All the people who tweet and who email famous or rich people saying, "Hey, if I could just
所有在推特和電子郵件中對名人或富人說：「嘿，如果我能

2568
02:19:04,480 --> 02:19:08,120
get one meeting with you," and they're vague about it, they're not going to get anywhere
和你開一次會，」而且他們含糊其辭，他們不會有任何

2569
02:19:08,120 --> 02:19:09,120
in life.
進展。

2570
02:19:09,120 --> 02:19:11,120
You have to build up the credibility.
你必須建立信譽。

2571
02:19:11,120 --> 02:19:15,660
When for example, an investor in the tech business and the venture business looks at
例如，當科技業和創投業的投資者看著

2572
02:19:15,660 --> 02:19:19,880
a startup, the first thing they want to see is they want to see some evidence of product
一家新創公司時，他們首先想看到的是產品進展的

2573
02:19:19,880 --> 02:19:20,880
progress.
一些證據。

2574
02:19:20,880 --> 02:19:22,280
They don't just want to even see a slide deck.
他們甚至不只想看簡報。

2575
02:19:22,280 --> 02:19:26,400
They want to see product progress because the product progress is the resume for the
他們想看到產品的進展，因為產品的進展是企業家的

2576
02:19:26,400 --> 02:19:27,400
entrepreneur.
履歷。

2577
02:19:27,400 --> 02:19:31,280
It's the unshakable, unfakable resume.
這是不可動搖、無法偽造的履歷。

2578
02:19:31,280 --> 02:19:32,720
You have to do the work.
你必須付出努力。

2579
02:19:32,720 --> 02:19:35,680
To use a crypto analogy, you have to have proof of work.
用加密貨幣的比喻來說，你必須有工作量證明。

2580
02:19:35,680 --> 02:19:39,280
If you have proof of work and you truly have something interesting, then you shouldn't
如果你有工作證明，而且你真的有有趣的東西，那你就不應該

2581
02:19:39,280 --> 02:19:42,240
hesitate to put it together in an email and send it to somebody.
猶豫，把它整理成一封電子郵件發給某人。

2582
02:19:42,240 --> 02:19:45,960
But even then, when you're asking for a meeting, you want to be super actionable about it.
但即使在那時，當你要求開會時，你也希望非常有行動力。

2583
02:19:45,960 --> 02:19:49,480
But I would say even the other side, even if you yourself haven't made it yet, if you
但我會說，即使是另一方，即使你自己還沒成功，如果你

2584
02:19:49,480 --> 02:19:53,840
think you're going to make it by going out and networking and doing a whole bunch of meetings,
認為你可以通過出去交際和開一大堆會議來成功，

2585
02:19:53,840 --> 02:19:55,240
you're probably incorrect.
你可能錯了。

2586
02:19:55,240 --> 02:19:58,480
Yes, networking can be important early in your career.
是的，在職業生涯早期，社交可能很重要。

2587
02:19:58,480 --> 02:20:02,720
And yes, you can get serendipitous with meetings, but the odds are pretty low.
是的，你可以通過會議獲得意外的收穫，但機率很低。

2588
02:20:02,720 --> 02:20:07,620
And as we spent time talking about earlier, when you are just meeting people and hoping
就像我們之前花時間談論的，當你只是見人並希望

2589
02:20:07,620 --> 02:20:12,280
to get that lucky break, you're relying on type one luck, which is blind luck and type
得到那個幸運的機會時，你依賴的是第一類運氣，也就是盲目的運氣和

2590
02:20:12,280 --> 02:20:14,160
two luck, which is hustle luck.
第二類運氣，也就是奮鬥的運氣。

2591
02:20:14,160 --> 02:20:17,880
But what you're not getting is type three or type four luck, which are the better kinds
但你沒有得到的是第三類或第四類運氣，那是更好的

2592
02:20:17,880 --> 02:20:23,120
where you spend time developing a reputation, working on something, developing a unique point
種類，你花時間建立聲譽、從事某件事、發展獨特的觀點

2593
02:20:23,120 --> 02:20:26,520
of view and being able to spot opportunities that others can't.
並能發現別人看不到的機會。

2594
02:20:26,520 --> 02:20:32,580
A busy calendar and a busy mind will destroy your ability to do great things in this world.
忙碌的行事曆和忙碌的心靈會摧毀你在這個世界上做大事的能力。

2595
02:20:32,580 --> 02:20:36,420
If you want to be able to do great things, whether you're a musician or whether you are
如果你想做偉大的事，無論你是音樂家還是

2596
02:20:36,420 --> 02:20:42,920
a entrepreneur or whether you're an investor, you need free time and you need a free mind.
企業家或投資者，你需要空閒時間和自由的心靈。

2597
02:20:42,920 --> 02:20:47,760
We just finished talking about the importance of working hard and valuing your time.
我們剛談完努力工作和珍惜時間的重要性。

2598
02:20:47,760 --> 02:20:53,960
Next, there's a few tweets on the topic of working for the long term.
接下來，有幾條推文是關於長期工作的。

2599
02:20:53,960 --> 02:20:58,120
The first tweet is, "Become the best in the world at what you do.
第一條推文是：「在你所做的事情上成為世界第一。」

2600
02:20:58,120 --> 02:21:01,400
Keep redefining what you do until this is true."
「不斷重新定義你所做的事，直到這成為事實。」

2601
02:21:01,400 --> 02:21:04,800
If you really want to get paid in this world, you want to be number one at whatever it is
如果你真的想在這個世界上賺錢，你就要在你做的任何事情上成為第一。

2602
02:21:04,800 --> 02:21:05,940
that you're doing.
你所做的事。

2603
02:21:05,940 --> 02:21:07,320
And it can be niche.
而且它可以是利基市場。

2604
02:21:07,320 --> 02:21:08,320
That's the point.
這就是重點。

2605
02:21:08,320 --> 02:21:10,520
It can literally be you're getting paid for just being you.
它真的可以是你僅僅因為是你自己而獲得報酬。

2606
02:21:10,520 --> 02:21:14,000
You know, at this point, some of the more successful people in the world are that way.
你知道，在這個時候，世界上一些比較成功的人就是這樣。

2607
02:21:14,000 --> 02:21:15,560
Oprah gets paid for being Oprah.
歐普拉因為是歐普拉而獲得報酬。

2608
02:21:15,560 --> 02:21:21,460
Joe Rogan gets paid for being Joe Rogan and they're being authentic to themselves.
Joe Rogan因為是Joe Rogan而獲得報酬，他們對自己很真實。

2609
02:21:21,460 --> 02:21:26,200
What this tweet is trying to say simultaneously is that you want to be number one, but you
這條推文試圖同時表達的是，你想成為第一，但你

2610
02:21:26,200 --> 02:21:28,560
want to keep changing what you do until you're number one.
想不斷改變你所做的事，直到你成為第一。

2611
02:21:28,560 --> 02:21:30,140
You can't just pick something arbitrary.
你不能只是隨意選擇某樣東西。

2612
02:21:30,140 --> 02:21:33,360
You can't say, "I'm going to be the fastest runner in the world and now you got to beat
你不能說：「我要成為世界上跑得最快的人，現在你得打敗

2613
02:21:33,360 --> 02:21:34,780
the same bolt."
同樣的螺栓。」

2614
02:21:34,780 --> 02:21:36,280
That's too hard of a problem.
那問題太難了。

2615
02:21:36,280 --> 02:21:41,460
But what you can do is you can keep changing what your objective is until it arrives to
但你可以做的是，你可以不斷改變你的目標，直到它達到

2616
02:21:41,460 --> 02:21:46,520
your specific knowledge, your skill sets, your position, your capabilities, your location,
你的特定知識、你的技能、你的職位、你的能力、你的地點、

2617
02:21:46,520 --> 02:21:50,200
your interests, and then converges to making you number one.
你的興趣，然後匯集成讓你成為第一。

2618
02:21:50,200 --> 02:21:54,760
When you're searching for what to do, you actually have two different foci that you
當你在尋找該做什麼時，你其實有兩個不同的焦點

2619
02:21:54,760 --> 02:21:57,340
have to keep in mind at all points.
必須隨時牢記。

2620
02:21:57,340 --> 02:22:00,440
One of those is, "I want to be the best at what I do."
其中一個是：「我想在我做的事情上做到最好。」

2621
02:22:00,440 --> 02:22:05,680
And the second is, "What I do is flexible so that I am the best at it."
第二個是：「我做的事情是靈活的，這樣我才能做到最好。」

2622
02:22:05,680 --> 02:22:09,280
Until you arrive at a comfortable place where you're like, "Yes, this is something I can
直到你到達一個舒適的地方，你會覺得：「是的，這是我可以

2623
02:22:09,280 --> 02:22:12,840
be amazing at while still being authentic to who I am."
做得非常棒，同時又能忠於自我。」

2624
02:22:12,840 --> 02:22:15,420
And this is not going to be an overnight discovery.
這不會是一夜之間的發現。

2625
02:22:15,420 --> 02:22:18,800
It's going to be a long journey, but at least you know how to think about it.
這將會是一段漫長的旅程，但至少你知道該如何思考它。

2626
02:22:18,800 --> 02:22:21,920
The most important thing for a company is to find product market fit.
對公司來說，最重要的是找到產品市場契合度。

2627
02:22:21,920 --> 02:22:25,680
I would say the most important thing for an entrepreneur is to find founder product market
我會說，對企業家來說，最重要的是找到創辦人-產品-市場的

2628
02:22:25,680 --> 02:22:31,220
fit, where you are naturally inclined to build the right product which has a market.
契合度，讓你天生傾向於打造出有市場的正確產品。

2629
02:22:31,220 --> 02:22:34,160
And that's the three-focus problem, which is you got to make all three of those work
這就是三焦點問題，你必須讓這三者都

2630
02:22:34,160 --> 02:22:35,160
at once.
同時運作。

2631
02:22:35,160 --> 02:22:39,840
If you want to be successful in life, you just have to get comfortable managing multivariate
如果你想在生活中成功，你必須習慣於管理多變量

2632
02:22:39,840 --> 02:22:41,680
problems, multiple objective functions at once.
問題，同時處理多個目標函數。

2633
02:22:41,680 --> 02:22:45,880
And this is one of those cases where you have to map at least two or three at once.
這就是其中一個你必須同時對應至少兩個或三個的情況。

2634
02:22:45,880 --> 02:22:51,000
This reminds me of your tweet about escaping competition through authenticity.
這讓我想起你關於通過真實性逃離競爭的推文。

2635
02:22:51,000 --> 02:22:55,080
It sounds like part of this is a search for who you are.
聽起來這部分是在尋找你是誰。

2636
02:22:55,080 --> 02:22:59,620
It's both a search and a recognition, because sometimes when we search our egos, we want
這既是尋找，也是認知，因為有時候當我們尋找自我時，我們想要

2637
02:22:59,620 --> 02:23:03,380
to be something that we aren't, and our friends and family are better at telling us actually
成為我們不是的樣子，而我們的朋友和家人更擅長告訴我們

2638
02:23:03,380 --> 02:23:04,380
who we are.
我們到底是誰。

2639
02:23:04,380 --> 02:23:08,320
So looking back at what we've done is a better indicator of who we are.
所以回顧我們做過的事，更能說明我們是誰。

2640
02:23:08,320 --> 02:23:12,040
Peter Thiel talks a lot about how competition is besides the point.
彼得·提爾經常談到競爭是無關緊要的。

2641
02:23:12,040 --> 02:23:13,040
It's counterproductive.
這是適得其反的。

2642
02:23:13,040 --> 02:23:14,880
We're highly mimetic creatures.
我們是高度模仿性的生物。

2643
02:23:14,880 --> 02:23:17,320
We copy what everybody else is doing around us.
我們模仿周圍的人在做什麼。

2644
02:23:17,320 --> 02:23:19,280
We copy our desires from them.
我們從他們身上複製我們的慾望。

2645
02:23:19,280 --> 02:23:20,640
Everyone around me is a great artist.
我周圍的每個人都是偉大的藝術家。

2646
02:23:20,640 --> 02:23:21,640
I want to be an artist.
我想成為一名藝術家。

2647
02:23:21,640 --> 02:23:25,580
If everyone around me is a great business person, I want to be a business person.
如果我周圍的每個人都是成功的商人，我就想成為一名商人。

2648
02:23:25,580 --> 02:23:27,060
Everybody around me is a social activist.
我周圍的每個人都是社會活動家。

2649
02:23:27,060 --> 02:23:28,380
I want to be a social activist.
我想成為一名社會運動家。

2650
02:23:28,380 --> 02:23:31,460
That's where my self-esteem will come from.
我的自尊就從那裡來。

2651
02:23:31,460 --> 02:23:34,440
You have to be a little careful when you get caught up in these status games that you end
當你陷入這些地位遊戲時，你必須小心一點，你最終

2652
02:23:34,440 --> 02:23:37,960
up competing over things that aren't worth competing over.
會為不值得競爭的事情而競爭。

2653
02:23:37,960 --> 02:23:41,960
So Peter Thiel talks about how he was going to be a law clerk because he was in law school,
所以彼得·提爾談到他將要成為一名法律助理，因為他在法學院，

2654
02:23:41,960 --> 02:23:45,280
and everybody around him wanted to be a law clerk for a Supreme Court justice or some
他周圍的每個人都想成為最高法院大法官或某個

2655
02:23:45,280 --> 02:23:49,320
famous judge, and he got rejected, and that's what made him go into business.
著名法官的法律助理，但他被拒絕了，這就是他從商的原因。

2656
02:23:49,320 --> 02:23:54,660
So it helped him break out of a lesser game into a greater game.
所以這幫助他從一個較小的遊戲中脫穎而出，進入一個更大的遊戲。

2657
02:23:54,660 --> 02:23:58,720
So sometimes you just get trapped in the wrong game because you're competing.
所以有時候你只是因為競爭而陷入了錯誤的遊戲。

2658
02:23:58,720 --> 02:24:03,640
And the best way to escape competition, to get away from the specter of competition,
而逃離競爭、擺脫競爭幽靈的最好方法，

2659
02:24:03,640 --> 02:24:07,040
which is not just stressful and nerve-racking, but will often drive you to just the wrong
這不僅僅是壓力和令人緊張，而且常常會把你引向錯誤的

2660
02:24:07,040 --> 02:24:11,040
answer, the way to escape competition is to just be authentic to yourself.
答案，逃離競爭的方法就是忠於自我。

2661
02:24:11,040 --> 02:24:15,460
If you are fundamentally building and marketing something that is just an extension of who
如果你從根本上建立和行銷的東西只是你個人

2662
02:24:15,460 --> 02:24:18,280
you are, no one can compete with you on that.
的延伸，沒有人能在那方面與你競爭。

2663
02:24:18,280 --> 02:24:20,640
Who's going to compete with Joe Rogan or Scott Adams?
誰能和喬·羅根或斯科特·亞當斯競爭？

2664
02:24:20,640 --> 02:24:21,640
It's impossible.
這不可能。

2665
02:24:21,640 --> 02:24:24,520
Is somebody else going to come along and write a better Dilbert?
會有其他人來寫一個更好的呆伯特嗎？

2666
02:24:24,520 --> 02:24:25,520
No.
不。

2667
02:24:25,520 --> 02:24:28,280
Is someone going to compete with Bill Watterson and create a better Calvin and Hobbes?
會有人和比爾·沃特森競爭，創作出更好的《凱文和霍布斯》嗎？

2668
02:24:28,280 --> 02:24:29,280
No.
不。

2669
02:24:29,280 --> 02:24:30,360
They're being authentic.
他們很真實。

2670
02:24:30,360 --> 02:24:32,320
This is easiest to see in art.
這在藝術中最容易看到。

2671
02:24:32,320 --> 02:24:37,000
Artists are by definition all naturally authentic, but even entrepreneurs are authentic.
藝術家根據定義都是天生真實的，但即使是企業家也是真實的。

2672
02:24:37,000 --> 02:24:38,000
Who's going to be Elon Musk?
誰會是伊隆·馬斯克？

2673
02:24:38,000 --> 02:24:39,800
Who's going to be Jack Dorsey?
誰會是傑克·多西？

2674
02:24:39,800 --> 02:24:43,780
These people are authentic and the businesses and products they create are authentic to
這些人是真實的，他們創造的事業和產品也忠於

2675
02:24:43,780 --> 02:24:45,880
their desires and their means.
他們的慾望和能力。

2676
02:24:45,880 --> 02:24:50,240
If somebody else came along and started launching rockets, I don't think it would faze Elon
如果別人也來發射火箭，我想這不會讓伊隆

2677
02:24:50,240 --> 02:24:51,240
one bit.
感到困擾。

2678
02:24:51,240 --> 02:24:55,360
He's still going to get to Mars because that's his mission, you know, insane as it seems.
他還是要去火星，因為那是他的使命，你知道的，儘管看起來很瘋狂。

2679
02:24:55,360 --> 02:24:57,880
That's the one he set for himself and he's going to accomplish it.
那是他為自己設定的，他將會完成它。

2680
02:24:57,880 --> 02:25:01,560
So authenticity naturally gets you away from competition.
所以真實性自然地讓你遠離競爭。

2681
02:25:01,560 --> 02:25:04,840
It doesn't mean that you necessarily want to be authentic to the point where there's
這並不意味著你一定要真實到沒有

2682
02:25:04,840 --> 02:25:06,560
no product market fit.
產品市場契合度的地步。

2683
02:25:06,560 --> 02:25:10,240
It may turn out you're the best juggler on a unicycle, but maybe there just isn't that
結果可能你是獨輪車上最好的雜耍演員，但也許

2684
02:25:10,240 --> 02:25:12,940
much of a market for that even with YouTube videos.
沒有那麼大的市場，即使有YouTube影片。

2685
02:25:12,940 --> 02:25:17,760
So you got to adjust that somehow until you find product market fit, but at least lean
所以你得想辦法調整，直到找到產品市場契合度，但至少要傾向

2686
02:25:17,760 --> 02:25:22,840
towards authenticity, towards getting away from competition and competition automatically
於真實性，傾向於遠離競爭，而競爭會自動

2687
02:25:22,840 --> 02:25:27,320
leads towards copycatting and often towards just playing completely the wrong game.
導致模仿，並常常導致完全玩錯了遊戲。

2688
02:25:27,320 --> 02:25:30,080
In entrepreneurship, the masses are never right.
在創業中，大眾永遠不會是對的。

2689
02:25:30,080 --> 02:25:35,320
If you see a lot of people tweeting about what a great market to enter is, or you see journalists
如果你看到很多人在推特上討論什麼是值得進入的好市場，或者你看到記者

2690
02:25:35,320 --> 02:25:39,560
talking about a company is terrible, they don't know anything.
說一家公司很糟糕，他們什麼都不知道。

2691
02:25:39,560 --> 02:25:44,680
If the masses knew how to build great things and create great wealth, we'd all already
如果大眾知道如何建造偉大的東西和創造巨大的財富，我們早就

2692
02:25:44,680 --> 02:25:45,680
be done.
完成了。

2693
02:25:45,680 --> 02:25:46,800
We'd all already be rich by now.
我們現在早就富有了。

2694
02:25:46,800 --> 02:25:52,200
So in a sense, when you see a lot of competition, sometimes that indicates to you that the masses
所以從某種意義上說，當你看到很多競爭時，有時這向你表明，大眾

2695
02:25:52,200 --> 02:25:53,200
are already here.
已經在這裡了。

2696
02:25:53,200 --> 02:25:56,580
So it's already competed over too much and there's nothing here or it's in the wrong
所以已經競爭過度了，這裡沒有什麼，或者是在錯誤的

2697
02:25:56,580 --> 02:25:57,880
trend to begin with.
趨勢上。

2698
02:25:57,880 --> 02:26:01,680
On the other hand, if it's completely empty, if the whole market is empty and no one's
另一方面，如果它完全是空的，如果整個市場都是空的，沒有人

2699
02:26:01,680 --> 02:26:06,280
there, that can also be a warning indicator that you've gone too authentic and not enough
在那裡，那也可能是一個警告信號，表明你太過真實而

2700
02:26:06,280 --> 02:26:10,440
on the product market fit part of founder product market fit.
在創辦人-產品-市場契合度的產品市場契合度部分做得不夠。

2701
02:26:10,440 --> 02:26:11,440
So there's a balance.
所以有一個平衡。

2702
02:26:11,440 --> 02:26:12,520
You have to find it.
你必須找到它。

2703
02:26:12,520 --> 02:26:18,480
But generally most people will make the mistake of paying too much attention to the competition
但通常大多數人都會犯一個錯誤，就是太過關注競爭

2704
02:26:18,480 --> 02:26:23,160
and being too much like the competition and not being authentic enough.
而且太像競爭對手，不夠真實。

2705
02:26:23,160 --> 02:26:27,320
And the great founders tend to be authentic iconoclasts.
而偉大的創始人往往是真實的偶像破壞者。

2706
02:26:27,320 --> 02:26:33,240
I hate to bring up the Scott Adams skill stack one more time, but I'll still bring it up.
我不想再提一次斯科特·亞當斯的技能組合，但我還是要提。

2707
02:26:33,240 --> 02:26:39,300
Do you think one way of getting to authenticity is not necessarily adding some random skills
你認為達到真實性的一種方法不一定是增加一些你認為

2708
02:26:39,300 --> 02:26:44,180
that you think might be important, but just really finding five or six various skills
可能重要的隨機技能，而是真正找到五、六個你

2709
02:26:44,180 --> 02:26:48,460
that you already authentically do and just stacking them on top of each other and not
已經真實地在做的各種技能，然後把它們堆疊在一起，而不是

2710
02:26:48,460 --> 02:26:50,460
even in any purposeful way?
以任何有目的的方式？

2711
02:26:50,460 --> 02:26:55,240
If you are expressing who you are, you're going to be expressing all these little five
如果你在表達你是誰，你就會表達所有這些五、

2712
02:26:55,240 --> 02:26:57,680
or six different skills anyway.
六種不同的技能。

2713
02:26:57,680 --> 02:27:00,240
That's really where life is going to lead you anyway.
那反正就是生活會引導你去的方向。

2714
02:27:00,240 --> 02:27:06,360
Long term, if you are good and successful at what you do, you will find that whatever
長期來看，如果你在你做的事情上很擅長且成功，你會發現無論

2715
02:27:06,360 --> 02:27:09,680
your hobbies were, you're almost doing them for a living.
你的嗜好是什麼，你幾乎都在靠它們維生。

2716
02:27:09,680 --> 02:27:13,960
As Robert Frost said, combine your vocation and your avocation, what you love to do and
正如羅伯特·佛羅斯特所說，結合你的職業和你的愛好，你喜歡做的事和

2717
02:27:13,960 --> 02:27:15,000
what you do do.
你做的事。

2718
02:27:15,000 --> 02:27:16,640
So I think you'll find yourself there anyway.
所以我想你反正會在那裡找到自己的。

2719
02:27:16,640 --> 02:27:19,720
And you're right about the skill stack and that everyone's got multiple skills.
你說的技能組合是對的，每個人都有多種技能。

2720
02:27:19,720 --> 02:27:23,680
We aren't all one dimensional creatures, even though that's how we have to portray ourselves
我們都不是一維生物，即使我們必須這樣在

2721
02:27:23,680 --> 02:27:25,960
in our online profiles to get employed.
我們的網路個人資料中描繪自己以獲得工作。

2722
02:27:25,960 --> 02:27:30,020
You meet somebody and they say, I'm a banker or I'm a bartender or I'm a barber or what
你遇到某人，他們說，我是銀行家，或我是酒保，或我是理髮師，或

2723
02:27:30,020 --> 02:27:32,080
have you, all the B's.
什麼的，都是B開頭的。

2724
02:27:32,080 --> 02:27:33,680
But people are multivariate.
但人是多變的。

2725
02:27:33,680 --> 02:27:34,680
They have a lot of skills.
他們有很多技能。

2726
02:27:34,680 --> 02:27:35,680
One banker might be good at finance.
一個銀行家可能擅長金融。

2727
02:27:35,680 --> 02:27:37,240
Another one might be good at sales.
另一個可能擅長銷售。

2728
02:27:37,240 --> 02:27:42,060
A third one might be just good at macroeconomic trends and have a feel for the markets.
第三個可能只是擅長宏觀經濟趨勢，對市場有感覺。

2729
02:27:42,060 --> 02:27:44,980
Another one might be really good at picking individual stocks.
另一個可能很擅長挑選個股。

2730
02:27:44,980 --> 02:27:49,240
Another one might just be good at maintaining relationships rather than selling new relationships.
另一個可能只是擅長維繫關係，而不是銷售新關係。

2731
02:27:49,240 --> 02:27:52,520
So everyone's going to have their various niches and you're going to have multiple niches,
所以每個人都會有他們各種的利基市場，你會有好幾個，

2732
02:27:52,520 --> 02:27:54,180
not going to be just one.
不會只有一個。

2733
02:27:54,180 --> 02:27:59,800
So over time, you will find as you go through your career, both you will gravitate towards
所以隨著時間推移，你會發現在你的職業生涯中，你會傾向於

2734
02:27:59,800 --> 02:28:03,200
the things that you're good at, which by definition are almost the things you enjoy doing.
你擅長的事情，而根據定義，那幾乎就是你喜歡做的事情。

2735
02:28:03,200 --> 02:28:04,200
Otherwise, you wouldn't be good at them.
否則，你不會擅長它們。

2736
02:28:04,200 --> 02:28:05,760
You wouldn't have put in the time.
你不會投入時間。

2737
02:28:05,760 --> 02:28:09,160
And other people will push you towards the things that you're good at because you're
而其他人會把你推向你擅長的事，因為你的

2738
02:28:09,160 --> 02:28:13,480
smart bosses and you're smart coworkers and you're smart investors will realize, okay,
聰明的老闆、聰明的同事和聰明的投資者會意識到，好的，

2739
02:28:13,480 --> 02:28:15,480
you're really world class in this thing.
你在這方面真的是世界級的。

2740
02:28:15,480 --> 02:28:17,680
You recruit somebody else for that other thing.
你為那另一件事招募其他人。

2741
02:28:17,680 --> 02:28:21,680
So ideally you want to end up specializing in being you.
所以理想情況下，你希望最終專精於做你自己。

2742
02:28:21,680 --> 02:28:26,960
I think when you're being authentic, you don't really mind competition that much.
我認為當你忠於自我時，你不會太在意競爭。

2743
02:28:26,960 --> 02:28:32,320
Yeah, it pisses you off and it inspires some fear and jealousy and all the other emotions
是的，它讓你生氣，激起一些恐懼和嫉妒以及所有其他

2744
02:28:32,320 --> 02:28:33,620
that come along with it.
隨之而來的情緒。

2745
02:28:33,620 --> 02:28:38,760
But also you don't really mind because you're more oriented towards the goal and the mission
但你也不會太介意，因為你更專注於目標和使命

2746
02:28:38,760 --> 02:28:44,880
and worst case, you get some ideas from them and there's often ways to work with the competition
最壞的情況下，你從他們那裡得到一些想法，而且通常有辦法與競爭

2747
02:28:44,880 --> 02:28:49,360
in a positive way and it ends up increasing the size of the market for you.
以積極的方式合作，最終反而擴大了你的市場規模。

2748
02:28:49,360 --> 02:28:52,160
Yeah, sometimes it depends on the nature of the business.
是的，有時候這取決於業務的性質。

2749
02:28:52,160 --> 02:28:56,940
Silicon Valley tech industry businesses tend to be winner take all, at least the good ones.
矽谷科技業的業務往往是贏家通吃，至少好的那些是。

2750
02:28:56,940 --> 02:29:01,920
And so when you see competition, it can make you fly into a rage because it really does
所以當你看到競爭時，它會讓你大發雷霆，因為它真的

2751
02:29:01,920 --> 02:29:03,840
endanger everything you've built.
危及你所建立的一切。

2752
02:29:03,840 --> 02:29:08,000
Whereas if I was opening a restaurant and a more interesting version of the same restaurant
然而，如果我開一家餐廳，而一家更有趣的同類餐廳

2753
02:29:08,000 --> 02:29:10,280
opens up in a different town, that's fantastic.
在另一個鎮上開業，那太棒了。

2754
02:29:10,280 --> 02:29:14,840
I'm just going to lift from them what's working and drop what I can see that they have already
我只會從他們那裡學習有效的東西，並放棄我看到他們已經

2755
02:29:14,840 --> 02:29:16,240
figured out is not working.
弄清楚無效的東西。

2756
02:29:16,240 --> 02:29:19,400
So it does depend to some extent on the nature of the business.
所以這在某種程度上取決於業務的性質。

2577
02:19:27,400 --> 02:19:31,280
It's the unshakable, unfakable resume.
這是不可動搖、無法偽造的履歷。

2758
02:29:23,960 --> 02:29:24,960
aren't.
不是。

2759
02:29:24,960 --> 02:29:27,480
They can end up adjacent or slightly different.
它們最終可能相鄰或略有不同。

2760
02:29:27,480 --> 02:29:30,940
You're one step away from a completely different business and sometimes you need to take that
你離一個完全不同的事業只有一步之遙，有時你需要邁出那

2761
02:29:30,940 --> 02:29:35,320
one step and you're not going to be able to take it if you're busy fighting over a booby
一步，而如果你忙著爭奪一個爛獎

2762
02:29:35,320 --> 02:29:36,320
prize.
品，你就無法邁出那一步。

2763
02:29:36,320 --> 02:29:38,400
Kind of you're playing a stupid game and you're going to win a stupid prize.
你有點像在玩一個愚蠢的遊戲，然後你會贏一個愚蠢的獎。

2764
02:29:38,400 --> 02:29:42,360
It's not obvious right now because you're blinded by competition, but three years from
現在還不明顯，因為你被競爭蒙蔽了雙眼，但三年後

2765
02:29:42,360 --> 02:29:43,760
now it'll be obvious.
就會很明顯。

2766
02:29:43,760 --> 02:29:47,880
To give a simple example, when I was first starting companies, one of my first ones was
舉個簡單的例子，當我剛開始創業時，我的第一批公司之一是

2767
02:29:47,880 --> 02:29:51,880
called Opinions, which was an online product review site for all the products out there
叫做 Opinions，是一個為所有產品提供評論的線上網站

2768
02:29:51,880 --> 02:29:53,760
that was independent of Amazon.
獨立於亞馬遜。

2769
02:29:53,760 --> 02:29:58,420
And that space eventually turned into TripAdvisor and Yelp, which is where we should have gone.
那個領域最終變成了 TripAdvisor 和 Yelp，那才是我們應該去的地方。

2770
02:29:58,420 --> 02:30:03,400
We should have done more local reviews because there's more value to having a review of a
我們應該做更多的本地評論，因為對稀有物品的評論

2771
02:30:03,400 --> 02:30:07,880
scarce item like in a local restaurant that is of an item like a camera, which is going
比如本地餐廳的評論，比像相機這種商品更有價值，

2772
02:30:07,880 --> 02:30:09,840
to have a thousand reviews on Amazon.
相機在亞馬遜上會有上千條評論。

2773
02:30:09,840 --> 02:30:14,520
But before we could get there, we got caught up in the whole comparison shopping game.
但在我們到達那裡之前，我們陷入了整個比價購物的遊戲中。

2774
02:30:14,520 --> 02:30:19,720
And so we ended up merging with DealTime and we competed with MySimon and BizRaid, which
所以我們最終與 DealTime 合併，並與 MySimon 和 BizRaid 競爭，後者

2775
02:30:19,720 --> 02:30:24,480
became Shopzilla and PriceGrabber and Nextag and a whole bunch of these price comparison
變成了 Shopzilla、PriceGrabber 和 Nextag 以及一大堆這些比價

2776
02:30:24,480 --> 02:30:27,840
engines and we're all caught in fierce competition with each other.
引擎，我們都陷入了激烈的競爭。

2777
02:30:27,840 --> 02:30:32,060
And that whole space went to zero because it turns out Amazon won e-tail completely.
而那個整個領域都歸零了，因為結果是亞馬遜完全贏得了電子零售。

2778
02:30:32,060 --> 02:30:34,260
So there was no need for price comparison.
所以沒有必要比價。

2779
02:30:34,260 --> 02:30:35,340
Everyone just went to Amazon.
大家都去了亞馬遜。

2780
02:30:35,340 --> 02:30:38,520
But we got the booby prize because we were caught in a competition with a bunch of our
但我們拿了個安慰獎，因為我們陷入了和一群同行的

2781
02:30:38,520 --> 02:30:42,720
peers when really we should have been looking at what the consumer really wanted and being
競爭中，而實際上我們應該看看消費者真正想要什麼，並

2782
02:30:42,720 --> 02:30:46,960
authentic to ourselves, which was reviews and not price comparison and gone more and
忠於自我，也就是評論而不是比價，並且更多地

2783
02:30:46,960 --> 02:30:50,880
more into more and more esoteric items that needed to be reviewed where customers had
進入越來越深奧、需要評論的項目，因為客戶

2784
02:30:50,880 --> 02:30:54,300
less and less data and wanted reviews more badly.
的數據越來越少，而且更迫切地需要評論。

2785
02:30:54,300 --> 02:30:57,760
So if we'd stayed authentic to ourselves, we would have done better.
所以如果我們忠於自我，我們會做得更好。

2786
02:30:57,760 --> 02:31:00,960
We're still talking about working for the long term.
我們還是在談論長期工作。

2787
02:31:00,960 --> 02:31:07,260
The next tweet on that topic is apply specific knowledge with leverage and eventually you
下一個關於這個主題的推文是，運用特定知識和槓桿，最終你

2788
02:31:07,260 --> 02:31:08,960
will get what you deserve.
會得到你應得的。

2789
02:31:08,960 --> 02:31:16,680
I would also add to that apply judgment, apply accountability and apply the skill of reading.
我也會加上運用判斷力、運用責任感和運用閱讀的技巧。

2790
02:31:16,680 --> 02:31:19,320
This one is just a glib way of saying that it takes time.
這只是輕率地說，這需要時間。

2791
02:31:19,320 --> 02:31:23,220
Even once you have all of these pieces in place, there is an indeterminate amount of
即使你已經把所有這些都準備好了，也還有一個不確定的

2792
02:31:23,220 --> 02:31:24,820
time that you're going to have to put in.
時間你必須投入。

2793
02:31:24,820 --> 02:31:29,300
And if you're counting, you will run out of patience before it actually arrives.
如果你在計算，你會在它真正到來之前就失去耐心。

2794
02:31:29,300 --> 02:31:33,000
So you just have to make sure that you give these things a proper time.
所以你必須確保你給這些事情一個適當的時間。

2795
02:31:33,000 --> 02:31:34,000
Life is long.
人生很長。

2796
02:31:34,000 --> 02:31:35,680
Charlie Munger had some line on this.
查理·芒格對此有句名言。

2797
02:31:35,680 --> 02:31:40,660
He asked him about making money and he reinterpreted that and he said what the questioner is actually
他問他關於賺錢的事，他重新詮釋了這個問題，他說提問者其實

2798
02:31:40,660 --> 02:31:46,400
asking is how do I get rich like you but faster before I end up as a really old guy?
是在問，我怎麼才能像你一樣致富，但在我變成一個老頭子之前更快地致富？

2799
02:31:46,400 --> 02:31:50,280
And everybody wants it immediately, but the world is an efficient place.
每個人都想立刻得到，但世界是個有效率的地方。

2800
02:31:50,280 --> 02:31:51,280
Immediate doesn't work.
立即見效是不行的。

2801
02:31:51,280 --> 02:31:52,280
You do have to put in the time.
你確實需要投入時間。

2802
02:31:52,280 --> 02:31:53,680
You do have to put in the hours.
你確實需要投入時間。

2803
02:31:53,680 --> 02:31:57,480
And so I think you just have to put yourself in the position with the specific knowledge,
所以我想你必須讓自己處於擁有特定知識、

2804
02:31:57,480 --> 02:32:02,240
with the accountability, with the leverage, with the authentic skill set that you have
責任、槓桿和真實的技能組合的位置

2805
02:32:02,240 --> 02:32:06,280
to be the best in the world at what you do and then you have to enjoy it and just keep
，讓你在你做的事情上成為世界第一，然後你必須享受它，並一直

2806
02:32:06,280 --> 02:32:10,360
doing it and keep doing it and keep doing it and don't keep track and don't keep count
做下去、做下去、做下去，不要記錄，不要計數

2807
02:32:10,360 --> 02:32:12,560
because if you do, you will run out of time.
因為如果你那樣做，你會耗盡時間。

2808
02:32:12,560 --> 02:32:18,920
I can look back at my career and the people two decades ago that I had identified as brilliant
我可以回顧我的職業生涯，以及二十年前我認為是才華橫溢

2809
02:32:18,920 --> 02:32:21,600
and hardworking but hadn't thought much more about it.
和勤奮的人，但沒有多想。

2810
02:32:21,600 --> 02:32:24,040
They're all successful now, almost without exception.
他們現在都成功了，幾乎沒有例外。

2811
02:32:24,040 --> 02:32:29,780
On a long enough time scale, you do get paid, but it can easily be 10 or 20 years.
在足夠長的時間尺度上，你確實會得到回報，但這可能很容易需要10年或20年。

2812
02:32:29,780 --> 02:32:33,520
This is five and if it's five or three and a friend of yours got there, it can drive
這是五，如果是五或三，而你的一個朋友做到了，這會讓你

2813
02:32:33,520 --> 02:32:34,520
you insane.
發瘋。

2814
02:32:34,520 --> 02:32:39,040
But those are exceptions and for every winner, there's multiple failures.
但那些是例外，每個贏家背後都有多個失敗者。

2815
02:32:39,040 --> 02:32:43,780
One thing that's important in entrepreneurship is you just have to be right once.
在創業中，很重要的一件事是，你只需要對一次。

2816
02:32:43,780 --> 02:32:45,500
You get many, many shots on goal.
你有很多、很多次射門的機會。

2817
02:32:45,500 --> 02:32:48,880
You can take a shot on goal every three to five years, maybe every 10 at the slowest
你可以每三到五年射一次門，最慢可能每十年

2818
02:32:48,880 --> 02:32:52,600
or once every year at the fastest, depending on how you're iterating with startups.
一次，最快每年一次，取決於你如何與初創公司迭代。

2819
02:32:52,600 --> 02:32:55,260
But you really only have to be right once.
但你真的只需要對一次。

2820
02:32:55,260 --> 02:33:01,920
My little equation is that your eventual outcome will be equal to something like the distinctiveness
我的小方程式是，你最終的結果會等於你

2821
02:33:01,920 --> 02:33:08,680
of your specific knowledge times how much leverage you can apply to that knowledge times
特定知識的獨特性，乘以你能對該知識施加多少槓桿，再乘以

2822
02:33:08,680 --> 02:33:15,400
how often your judgment is correct times how singularly accountable you are for the outcome
你的判斷有多常是正確的，再乘以你對結果有多單獨負責，

2823
02:33:15,400 --> 02:33:18,960
times how much society values what you're doing.
再乘以社會對你所做事情的重視程度。

2824
02:33:18,960 --> 02:33:23,240
And then you compound all of that with how long you can keep doing it and how long you
然後你將所有這些與你能持續多久，以及你

2825
02:33:23,240 --> 02:33:26,960
can keep improving it through reading and learning.
能通過閱讀和學習持續改進它的時間，進行複利計算。

2826
02:33:26,960 --> 02:33:29,140
That's actually a really good way to summarize it.
這其實是一個很好的總結方式。

2827
02:33:29,140 --> 02:33:31,800
It's probably worth even trying to sketch that equation out.
或許值得試著把那個方程式畫出來。

2828
02:33:31,800 --> 02:33:36,920
That said, people try to then apply mathematics to what is really philosophy.
話雖如此，人們試圖將數學應用於實際上是哲學的東西。

2829
02:33:36,920 --> 02:33:40,240
So I've seen this happen in the past where I say one thing and then I say another thing
我過去看過這種情況，我說了一件事，然後又說了另一件

2830
02:33:40,240 --> 02:33:43,800
that seems contradictory if you treat it as a math equation, but it's obviously a different
如果你把它當作一個數學方程式，它看起來會很矛盾，但它顯然是一個不同的

2831
02:33:43,800 --> 02:33:44,800
context.
情境。

2832
02:33:44,800 --> 02:33:49,240
And then people will say, well, you say that desire is suffering, that's the Buddhist saying,
然後人們會說，嗯，你說慾望是痛苦，這是佛教的說法，

2833
02:33:49,240 --> 02:33:51,560
and then you say that all greatness comes from suffering.
然後你說所有的偉大都來自痛苦。

2834
02:33:51,560 --> 02:33:53,400
So does that mean all greatness comes from desire?
那麼這是否意味著所有的偉大都來自慾望？

2835
02:33:53,400 --> 02:33:54,760
And it's like, well, this isn't math, people.
這就像，嗯，這不是數學，各位。

2836
02:33:54,760 --> 02:33:59,520
You can't just start carrying variables around and forming absolute logical outputs.
你不能只是開始到處搬運變數，並形成絕對的邏輯輸出。

2837
02:33:59,520 --> 02:34:01,800
You have to know when to apply things.
你必須知道何時應用事物。

2838
02:34:01,800 --> 02:34:04,780
So I think that is very useful to understand.
所以我認為那是非常有用的理解。

2839
02:34:04,780 --> 02:34:08,700
But at the same time, one can't get too analytical about it.
但與此同時，也不能太過分析。

2840
02:34:08,700 --> 02:34:11,380
It's what a physicist would call false precision.
這就是物理學家所說的假精確。

2841
02:34:11,380 --> 02:34:15,080
When you take two made up estimates and you multiply them together and you get four degrees
當你把兩個編造的估計值相乘，然後得到四度的

2842
02:34:15,080 --> 02:34:18,060
of precision, those decimal points don't actually count.
精確度，那些小數點其實不算數。

2843
02:34:18,060 --> 02:34:19,060
You don't have that data.
你沒有那些數據。

2844
02:34:19,060 --> 02:34:20,480
You don't have that knowledge.
你沒有那樣的知識。

2845
02:34:20,480 --> 02:34:26,320
In a model, the more estimated variables you have, the greater the error in the model.
在一個模型中，你擁有的估計變數越多，模型的誤差就越大。

2846
02:34:26,320 --> 02:34:30,660
So just adding more and more complexity to your decision making process actually gets
所以只是在你的決策過程中增加越來越多的複雜性，實際上會得到

2847
02:34:30,660 --> 02:34:32,200
you a worse answer.
更糟的答案。

2848
02:34:32,200 --> 02:34:36,420
You're better off just picking the single biggest thing or two.
你最好只選擇一兩件最重要的事情。

2849
02:34:36,420 --> 02:34:41,320
For example, what am I really good at according to observation and according to people that
例如，根據觀察和我

2850
02:34:41,320 --> 02:34:46,280
I trust that the market values like that alone, those two variables alone are probably good
信任的人，市場重視的，我真正擅長什麼，光是這兩個變數，可能就

2851
02:34:46,280 --> 02:34:49,320
enough because if you're good at it, you'll keep it up.
足夠了，因為如果你擅長，你會繼續下去。

2852
02:34:49,320 --> 02:34:51,280
And if you're good at it, you develop the judgment.
如果你擅長，你會發展出判斷力。

2853
02:34:51,280 --> 02:34:55,340
And if you're good at it and you like to do it, eventually people will give you the resources
如果你擅長並且喜歡做，最終人們會給你資源

2854
02:34:55,340 --> 02:34:56,920
and you won't be afraid to take on accountability.
你也不會害怕承擔責任。

2855
02:34:56,920 --> 02:34:59,560
So all the other pieces will fall in place.
所以其他的部分都會水到渠成。

2856
02:34:59,560 --> 02:35:03,880
Product market fit is inevitable if you're doing something you love to do and the market
如果你在做你喜歡做的事，而且市場

2857
02:35:03,880 --> 02:35:05,360
wants it.
也需要它，那麼產品市場契合度是不可避免的。

2858
02:35:05,360 --> 02:35:09,940
Regarding the guy that gets rich in five years, one of the tweets that you had on the cutting
關於那個五年致富的傢伙，你在刪減

2859
02:35:09,940 --> 02:35:15,840
room floor was, avoid people who got rich quickly.
清單上的一則推文是，避開那些迅速致富的人。

2860
02:35:15,840 --> 02:35:19,720
They're just giving you their winning lottery ticket numbers.
他們只是在給你他們的中獎彩票號碼。

2861
02:35:19,720 --> 02:35:25,120
This is generally true of advice anyway, which is it's back to Scott Adams, systems, not
無論如何，這對於建議通常都是真的，這又回到了斯科特·亞當斯的觀點，系統，不是

2862
02:35:25,120 --> 02:35:26,120
goals.
目標。

2863
02:35:26,120 --> 02:35:30,300
If you ask a specific person what worked for them, very often it's just like they're reading
如果你問一個特定的人什麼對他們有效，通常就像他們在讀

2864
02:35:30,300 --> 02:35:34,080
out the exact set of things that work for them, which may not be applicable for you.
對他們有效的那一套東西，而這可能不適用於你。

2865
02:35:34,080 --> 02:35:36,600
They're just reading your, they're winning lottery ticket numbers.
他們只是在讀你的，他們的中獎彩票號碼。

2866
02:35:36,600 --> 02:35:37,600
It's a little glip.
這有點輕率。

2867
02:35:37,600 --> 02:35:41,120
There is something to be learned from them, but you can't just take their exact circumstance
他們身上確實有東西可以學，但你不能只是把他們確切的情況

2868
02:35:41,120 --> 02:35:42,620
and map it onto yours.
套用在你自己身上。

2869
02:35:42,620 --> 02:35:49,920
The best founders I know, they listen and read to everyone, but then they ignore everybody
我認識的最好的創始人，他們會聽和讀所有人的意見，但然後他們會忽略所有

2870
02:35:49,920 --> 02:35:51,700
and they make up their own mind.
人，自己做決定。

2871
02:35:51,700 --> 02:35:56,560
They have their own internal model of how to apply things to their situation and they
他們有自己的內在模型，知道如何將事物應用於自身情況，而且他們

2872
02:35:56,560 --> 02:35:59,120
do not hesitate to discard information.
毫不猶豫地丟棄信息。

2873
02:35:59,120 --> 02:36:02,660
If you survey enough people, all the advice will cancel to zero.
如果你調查足夠多的人，所有的建議都會相互抵消為零。

2874
02:36:02,660 --> 02:36:07,440
So you do have to have your own point of view and when something is sent your way, you have
所以你必須有自己的觀點，當有事情向你拋來時，你必須

2875
02:36:07,440 --> 02:36:09,920
to very quickly decide, is that true?
很快地決定，這是真的嗎？

2876
02:36:09,920 --> 02:36:13,280
Is that true outside of the context of what that person applied it in?
在那個人應用的情境外，這也是真的嗎？

2877
02:36:13,280 --> 02:36:15,080
Is it true in my context?
在我的情境下是真的嗎？

2878
02:36:15,080 --> 02:36:17,320
And then do I want to apply it?
然後我想應用它嗎？

2879
02:36:17,320 --> 02:36:21,120
You have to reject most advice, but you have to listen to and read enough of it to know
你必須拒絕大部分的建議，但你必須聽和讀足夠的建議，才能知道

2880
02:36:21,120 --> 02:36:23,560
what to reject and what to accept.
該拒絕什麼，該接受什麼。

2881
02:36:23,560 --> 02:36:26,360
Even in this podcast, you should examine everything.
即使在這個播客中，你也應該審視一切。

2882
02:36:26,360 --> 02:36:29,860
If something does not feel true to you, put it down, set it aside.
如果有些事情你覺得不真實，就放下它，把它放在一邊。

2883
02:36:29,860 --> 02:36:33,360
If too many things seem untrue, delete this podcast.
如果太多事情看起來不真實，就刪除這個播客。

2884
02:36:33,360 --> 02:36:38,600
I think the most dangerous part of taking advice is that the person that gave it to you is not
我認為接受建議最危險的部分是，給你建議的人

2885
02:36:38,600 --> 02:36:42,840
going to be around to tell you when it does not apply any longer.
不會在你身邊告訴你何時它不再適用。

2886
02:36:42,840 --> 02:36:47,320
I view the purpose of advice as a little different than most people.
我對建議的目的看法與大多數人有點不同。

2887
02:36:47,320 --> 02:36:54,520
I just view it as helping me have anecdotes and maxims that I can then later recall when
我只是把它看作是幫助我擁有可以稍後回憶的軼事和格言，當

2888
02:36:54,520 --> 02:36:58,640
I have my own direct experience and say, "Ah, that is what that person meant."
我有自己的直接經驗時，可以說：「啊，那個人就是那個意思。」

2889
02:36:58,640 --> 02:37:03,340
Ninety percent of my tweets are actually just maxims that I carve for myself that are then
我百分之九十的推文其實都只是我為自己雕琢的格言，然後

2890
02:37:03,340 --> 02:37:07,080
little mental hooks to remind me when I am in that situation again.
在我再次遇到那種情況時，提醒我的小小的心理掛鉤。

2891
02:37:07,080 --> 02:37:10,720
Like, "Oh, I'm the one who tweeted, 'If you can't see yourself working with someone for
比如，「哦，是我發了那條推文，『如果你無法想像和某人共事

2892
02:37:10,720 --> 02:37:13,040
life then don't work with them for a day.'
一生，那就不要和他們共事一天。』」

2893
02:37:13,040 --> 02:37:16,480
So as soon as I know that this person is not going to be someone that I'm going to be working
所以一旦我知道這個人不會是我將來要合作

2894
02:37:16,480 --> 02:37:20,560
with 10 years from now, then I have to start extricating myself from that relationship
十年的人，我就必須開始從那段關係中解脫出來

2895
02:37:20,560 --> 02:37:23,480
or just not investing that much more effort into it."
或者就不要再投入那麼多心力了。」

2896
02:37:23,480 --> 02:37:30,320
So I use my tweets and other people's tweets as maxims that help compress my own learnings
所以我用我的推文和其他人的推文作為格言，幫助我壓縮自己的學習

2897
02:37:30,320 --> 02:37:31,960
and be able to recall them.
並能夠回憶起它們。

2898
02:37:31,960 --> 02:37:34,460
The brain space is finite, your finite neurons.
大腦空間是有限的，你的神經元是有限的。

2899
02:37:34,460 --> 02:37:39,820
So you can almost think of these as pointers, addresses, mnemonics to help you remember
所以你可以幾乎把這些看作是指標、地址、助記符，來幫助你記住

2900
02:37:39,820 --> 02:37:44,780
deep-seated principles where you have the underlying experience to back it up.
根深蒂固的原則，而你有底層的經驗來支持它。

2901
02:37:44,780 --> 02:37:48,760
If you don't have the underlying experience, then it just reads like a collection of quotes.
如果你沒有底層的經驗，那它讀起來就只是一堆名言。

2902
02:37:48,760 --> 02:37:52,000
It gets cool, it's inspirational for a moment, maybe you make a nice poster out of it but
它變得很酷，一時之間很有啟發性，也許你用它做了一張漂亮的海報，但是

2903
02:37:52,000 --> 02:37:53,420
then you forget it and move on.
然後你忘了它，繼續前進。

2904
02:37:53,420 --> 02:37:59,740
So all of these are really just compact ways for you to recall your own knowledge.
所以所有這些其實都只是讓你回憶自己知識的緊湊方式。

2905
02:37:59,740 --> 02:38:04,920
The last tweet on the topic of working for the long term is that when you're finally
關於長期工作的最後一條推文是，當你終於

2906
02:38:04,920 --> 02:38:09,160
wealthy, you'll realize that it wasn't what you were seeking in the first place, but that's
富裕時，你會意識到那並不是你最初所尋求的，但那是

2907
02:38:09,160 --> 02:38:10,960
for another day.
改天再說。

2908
02:38:10,960 --> 02:38:13,320
That's a multi-hour topic in and of itself.
這本身就是一個多小時的話題。

2909
02:38:13,320 --> 02:38:16,020
First of all, I just thought it was a really clever way to end the whole thing because
首先，我只是覺得這是一個非常聰明的結束方式，因為

2910
02:38:16,020 --> 02:38:20,440
it disarms a whole set of people who'd say, "Well, what's the point of getting rich?"
它讓一群會說「嗯，致富有什麼意義？」的人無話可說。

2911
02:38:20,440 --> 02:38:23,780
Because there are a lot of people who just like the status signal, virtue signal against
因為有很多人就是喜歡用地位信號、美德信號來反對

2912
02:38:23,780 --> 02:38:26,360
the idea of wealth creation or making money.
創造財富或賺錢的想法。

2913
02:38:26,360 --> 02:38:29,040
So it was just a good way to disarm all of them.
所以這只是解除他們武裝的好方法。

2914
02:38:29,040 --> 02:38:34,960
But it's also true in that the things that you really want in life, yes, money will solve
但這也是真的，你生命中真正想要的東西，是的，錢會解決

2915
02:38:34,960 --> 02:38:37,960
all your money problems, but it doesn't get you everywhere.
你所有的金錢問題，但它不能帶你到任何地方。

2916
02:38:37,960 --> 02:38:40,820
The first thing you'll realize when you've made a bunch of money is that you're still
當你賺了一大筆錢後，你首先會意識到的是，你仍然

2917
02:38:40,820 --> 02:38:42,160
the same person.
是同一個人。

2918
02:38:42,160 --> 02:38:43,440
If you're happy, you're happy.
如果你快樂，你就快樂。

2919
02:38:43,440 --> 02:38:45,380
If you're unhappy, you're unhappy.
如果你不快樂，你就不快樂。

2920
02:38:45,380 --> 02:38:49,120
If you're calm and fulfilled and peaceful, you're still that same person.
如果你平靜、充實、安詳，你仍然是同一個人。

2921
02:38:49,120 --> 02:38:52,740
I know lots of very rich people who are extremely out of shape.
我認識很多非常富有的人，他們身材極差。

2922
02:38:52,740 --> 02:38:56,000
I know lots of rich people who have really bad family lives.
我認識很多有錢人，他們家庭生活很糟糕。

2923
02:38:56,000 --> 02:38:58,980
I know lots of rich people who are internally a mess.
我認識很多有錢人，他們內心一團糟。

2924
02:38:58,980 --> 02:39:03,280
So I would lean on another tweet that I put out, which is actually when I think back on
所以我想引用我發的另一條推文，其實當我回想

2925
02:39:03,280 --> 02:39:06,240
it, I think it's my favorite tweet of mine.
時，我認為這是我最喜歡的一條推文。

2926
02:39:06,240 --> 02:39:08,080
It's not necessarily the most insightful.
它不一定是最有見地的。

2927
02:39:08,080 --> 02:39:10,580
It's not necessarily the most helpful.
它不一定是最有幫助的。

2928
02:39:10,580 --> 02:39:13,980
It's not even the one I think about the most, but when I look at it, there's just such a
它甚至不是我想得最多的，但當我看到它時，它就有著

2929
02:39:13,980 --> 02:39:16,320
certain truth in there that it just resonates.
某種真理，讓我產生共鳴。

2930
02:39:16,320 --> 02:39:21,140
And that is that a calm mind, a fit body, and a house full of love, these things cannot
那就是平靜的心靈、健壯的身體和充滿愛的家，這些東西是

2931
02:39:21,140 --> 02:39:22,140
be bought.
買不到的。

2932
02:39:22,140 --> 02:39:23,180
They must be earned.
它們必須靠自己賺取。

2933
02:39:23,180 --> 02:39:26,220
Even if you have all the money in the world, you can't have those three things.
即使你擁有世界上所有的錢，你也無法擁有這三樣東西。

2934
02:39:26,220 --> 02:39:28,060
Jeff Bezos still has to work out.
傑夫·貝佐斯還是得健身。

2935
02:39:28,060 --> 02:39:31,360
He still has to work on his marriage or whatever his next relationship is.
他仍然需要經營他的婚姻，或者他的下一個關係。

2936
02:39:31,360 --> 02:39:36,220
And his internal mental state is still going to be very much not controlled by external
而他的內在精神狀態仍然很大程度上不受外部

2937
02:39:36,220 --> 02:39:37,220
events.
事件控制。

2938
02:39:37,220 --> 02:39:39,540
It's going to be based on how calm and peaceful he's inside.
這將取決於他內心的平靜與安寧。

2939
02:39:39,540 --> 02:39:45,180
So I think those three things, your health, your mental health, and your close relationships
所以我認為這三件事，你的健康、你的心理健康和你的親密關係

2940
02:39:45,180 --> 02:39:49,180
are things that you have to cultivate and can probably bring you a lot more peace and
是你必須培養的，而且可能比任何金錢

2941
02:39:49,180 --> 02:39:51,880
happiness than any amount of money ever will.
都能帶給你更多的平靜和幸福。

2942
02:39:51,880 --> 02:39:52,880
So that's what I meant.
這就是我的意思。

2943
02:39:52,880 --> 02:39:56,560
Now, how to get there is actually a tweet storm that I still need to put out.
現在，如何到達那裡其實是我還需要發布的推文風暴。

2944
02:39:56,560 --> 02:39:57,720
I've been working on it.
我一直在做。

2945
02:39:57,720 --> 02:40:00,220
I have probably 100 tweets on it.
我可能有100條關於它的推文。

2946
02:40:00,220 --> 02:40:04,860
It's just very hard to say anything on the topic without getting attacked from 50 different
在這個話題上很難說任何話，而不被五十個不同

2947
02:40:04,860 --> 02:40:07,380
directions, especially these days on Twitter.
方向攻擊，尤其是在現在的推特上。

2948
02:40:07,380 --> 02:40:12,060
So I've been hesitant to do it because I want to target it for a very specific kind of person.
所以我一直猶豫不決，因為我想把它針對一個非常特定的人群。

2949
02:40:12,060 --> 02:40:16,400
There's a bunch of people who don't believe that working on your internal state is useful.
有一群人不相信改善內在狀態是有用的。

2950
02:40:16,400 --> 02:40:18,260
They're too focused on the external.
他們太專注於外部。

2951
02:40:18,260 --> 02:40:19,260
And that's fine.
這沒關係。

2952
02:40:19,260 --> 02:40:20,260
There's nothing wrong with that.
那沒有錯。

2953
02:40:20,260 --> 02:40:21,260
They should do that.
他們應該那樣做。

2954
02:40:21,260 --> 02:40:23,420
And that's how to get rich tweet storm is for.
這就是「如何致富」推文風暴的目的。

2955
02:40:23,420 --> 02:40:26,380
There's a bunch of people who believe that the only thing worth working on is complete
有一群人相信，唯一值得努力的是完全

2956
02:40:26,380 --> 02:40:30,140
liberation, like you become the Buddha and they'll attack anything in the middle as being
解脫，就像你成為佛陀一樣，他們會攻擊任何中間的東西，認為

2957
02:40:30,140 --> 02:40:31,140
useless.
無用。

2958
02:40:31,140 --> 02:40:33,780
That's fine too, but most people aren't there.
那也沒關係，但大多數人還沒到那個境界。

2959
02:40:33,780 --> 02:40:39,380
So what I want to do is to create a tweet storm that is just very practical advice for
所以我想做的是，創建一個推文風暴，為

2960
02:40:39,380 --> 02:40:45,300
everyday people who want to have a calmer internal state, just a set of understandings,
想要有更平靜內心狀態的普通人提供非常實用的建議，只是一些理解、

2961
02:40:45,300 --> 02:40:50,260
realizations, have truths and truths that if you were to imbibe them properly, and again,
體悟，一些真理，如果你能正確地吸收它們，再說一次，

2962
02:40:50,260 --> 02:40:55,460
these are just pointers to ideas that you already have and experiences that you already have,
這些只是指向你已有的想法和經驗的指標，

2963
02:40:55,460 --> 02:41:00,640
that if you keep these top of mind, slowly but steadily, it will help you with certain
如果你把這些放在心上，慢慢地但穩步地，它會幫助你

2964
02:41:00,640 --> 02:41:04,860
realizations that will lead you to a calmer internal state.
實現某些領悟，從而引導你進入更平靜的內在狀態。

2965
02:41:04,860 --> 02:41:06,380
That's what I want to work on.
這就是我想要做的。

2966
02:41:06,380 --> 02:41:07,380
Fitness is another big one.
健身是另一個大問題。

2967
02:41:07,380 --> 02:41:08,620
I'm just not the expert there.
我只是那方面的專家。

2968
02:41:08,620 --> 02:41:11,620
There are plenty of good people on Twitter who are better fitness than me.
推特上有很多比我更懂健身的人。

2969
02:41:11,620 --> 02:41:16,460
And I think loving household and relationships actually automatically falls out of the other
我認為充滿愛的家庭和人際關係實際上會自動從其他

2970
02:41:16,460 --> 02:41:17,460
things.
事情中產生。

2971
02:41:17,460 --> 02:41:22,100
If you have a calm mind, and if you've already made money, you should have good relationship.
如果你有平靜的心態，而且你已經賺到錢了，你應該有好的關係。

2972
02:41:22,100 --> 02:41:23,380
There's no reason why you shouldn't.
沒有理由你不應該。

2973
02:41:23,380 --> 02:41:26,100
A lot of divorces actually happen over money.
很多離婚其實都發生在金錢問題上。

2974
02:41:26,100 --> 02:41:28,260
Unfortunately, that's just the reality of it.
不幸的是，這就是現實。

2975
02:41:28,260 --> 02:41:30,500
So having money removes that part of it.
所以有錢就排除了那部分。

2976
02:41:30,500 --> 02:41:35,060
A lot of external battles happen because your internal state is not good.
很多外部的鬥爭發生，是因為你的內在狀態不好。

2977
02:41:35,060 --> 02:41:38,180
When you're naturally internally peaceful, you're going to pick less fights, you're going
當你內心自然平靜時，你會少挑起爭鬥，你會

2978
02:41:38,180 --> 02:41:41,340
to be more loving without expecting anything in return.
更充滿愛，而不期望任何回報。

2979
02:41:41,340 --> 02:41:45,100
And that will take care of things on the external relationship front.
那將會照顧好外部人際關係方面的事情。

2980
02:41:45,100 --> 02:41:48,460
So money solves your money problems.
所以錢解決你的金錢問題。

2981
02:41:48,460 --> 02:41:50,780
Money buys you freedom in the material world.
錢在物質世界為你買到自由。

2982
02:41:50,780 --> 02:41:54,100
I think that was a tweet from your cutting room floor.
我想那是你剪輯室地板上的一條推文。

2983
02:41:54,100 --> 02:41:58,300
And money lets you not do the things that you don't want to do.
而錢讓你可以不做你不想做的事。

2984
02:41:58,300 --> 02:42:02,260
Yeah, to me, the ultimate purpose of money is so that you do not have to be in a specific
是的，對我來說，錢的最終目的是讓你不需要在特定的

2985
02:42:02,260 --> 02:42:06,260
place at a specific time doing anything you don't want to do.
時間地點做任何你不想做的事。

2986
02:42:06,260 --> 02:42:11,260
We skipped one tweet because I wanted to cover all of the tweets on the topic of the long
我們跳過了一條推文，因為我想涵蓋所有關於長期

2987
02:42:11,260 --> 02:42:12,380
term.
主題的推文。

2988
02:42:12,380 --> 02:42:17,620
And the tweet that we skipped was, "There are no get rich quick schemes.
我們跳過的推文是：「沒有快速致富的計謀。

2989
02:42:17,620 --> 02:42:20,340
That's just someone else getting rich off you."
那只是別人在利用你致富。」

2990
02:42:20,340 --> 02:42:23,060
This goes back to the world being an efficient place.
這又回到了世界是個有效率的地方。

2991
02:42:23,060 --> 02:42:26,060
If there's an easy way to get rich, it's already been exploited.
如果有簡單的致富方法，它早就被利用了。

2992
02:42:26,060 --> 02:42:31,140
And there are a lot of people who will sell you ideas and schemes on how to make money,
有很多人會賣給你關於如何賺錢的想法和計謀，

2993
02:42:31,140 --> 02:42:37,580
but they're just always selling you some $79.95 course or some audio book or some seminar,
但他們總是賣給你一些79.95美元的課程、一些有聲書或一些研討會，

2994
02:42:37,580 --> 02:42:38,580
which is fine.
這沒關係。

2995
02:42:38,580 --> 02:42:39,580
Everyone needs to eat.
每個人都需要吃飯。

2996
02:42:39,580 --> 02:42:40,580
People need to make a living.
人們需要謀生。

2997
02:42:40,580 --> 02:42:42,700
They might actually have really good tips.
他們可能真的有很好的建議。

2998
02:42:42,700 --> 02:42:48,340
But if they're giving you actionable, high quality advice that acknowledges that it's
但如果他們給你的是可行的、高品質的建議，並且承認

2999
02:42:48,340 --> 02:42:51,900
a difficult journey and will take a lot of time, then I think that's realistic.
這是一段艱難的旅程，而且會花很多時間，那麼我認為這是現實的。

3000
02:42:51,900 --> 02:42:55,660
But if they're selling you some get rich quick scheme, whether it's crypto or whether it's
但如果他們在賣給你一些快速致富的計畫，無論是加密貨幣還是

3001
02:42:55,660 --> 02:42:59,260
an online business or seminar, they're just making money off you.
線上生意或研討會，他們只是在從你身上賺錢。

3002
02:42:59,260 --> 02:43:00,460
That's their get rich quick scheme.
那是他們的快速致富計畫。

3003
02:43:00,460 --> 02:43:02,420
It's not going to necessarily work for you.
這不一定對你有用。

3004
02:43:02,420 --> 02:43:07,540
One of the things about this whole tweet storm and podcast is that we don't have ads on here.
關於這個推文風暴和播客的一件事是，我們這裡沒有廣告。

3005
02:43:07,540 --> 02:43:08,860
We don't charge for anything.
我們不收任何費用。

3006
02:43:08,860 --> 02:43:10,140
We don't sell anything.
我們不賣任何東西。

3007
02:43:10,140 --> 02:43:11,480
Not because I don't want to make more money.
不是因為我不想賺更多錢。

3008
02:43:11,480 --> 02:43:13,060
It's always nice to make more money.
賺更多錢總是好的。

3009
02:43:13,060 --> 02:43:14,420
We're doing work here.
我們在這裡工作。

3010
02:43:14,420 --> 02:43:17,920
But because it would completely destroy the credibility of the enterprise.
但因為這會完全摧毀這個事業的信譽。

3011
02:43:17,920 --> 02:43:22,180
If I'm saying, hey, I know how to get rich and I'm going to sell that to you, it ruins
如果我說，嘿，我知道如何致富，然後我要賣給你，那就毀了

3012
02:43:22,180 --> 02:43:23,180
it.
它。

3013
02:43:23,180 --> 02:43:26,580
When I was young and I was kind of studying up on the topic, one of my favorite books
當我年輕時，我正在研究這個主題時，我最喜歡的一本書

3014
02:43:26,580 --> 02:43:31,020
on the topic was actually called How to Get Rich by Felix Dennis, the founder of Maxim
關於這個主題的書其實叫做《如何致富》，作者是Maxim

3015
02:43:31,020 --> 02:43:33,420
magazine, billionaire who passed away.
雜誌的創始人，一位已故的億萬富翁菲利克斯·丹尼斯。

3016
02:43:33,420 --> 02:43:36,860
And he had a lot of crazy stuff in there, but he had some really good insights too.
裡面有很多瘋狂的東西，但他也有一些非常好的見解。

3017
02:43:36,860 --> 02:43:42,180
But whenever I read something by him or by the GoDaddy founder, Bob Parsons or say Andrew
但每當我讀到他的東西，或 GoDaddy 創辦人 Bob Parsons，或說 Andrew

3018
02:43:42,180 --> 02:43:47,020
Carnegie, you read stuff by people who are already very wealthy and they've clearly made
Carnegie 的東西，你讀的是那些已經非常富有，而且顯然

3019
02:43:47,020 --> 02:43:51,260
their wealth in other fields, not by selling the How to Get Rich line.
在其他領域創造財富的人的著作，而不是靠賣「如何致富」的產品。

3020
02:43:51,260 --> 02:43:52,420
They have credibility.
他們有信譽。

3021
02:43:52,420 --> 02:43:55,060
You just trust them and they're not trying to make money off of you.
你就信任他們，他們不是想從你身上賺錢。

3022
02:43:55,060 --> 02:43:57,980
They are obviously trying to win some status and some ego, right?
他們顯然是在爭取一些地位和自我，對吧？

3023
02:43:57,980 --> 02:44:00,580
You always have to have a motivation for doing something.
你總是需要有做事的動機。

3024
02:44:00,580 --> 02:44:04,660
But at least that is a cleaner reason why they're probably not lying.
但至少那是他們可能沒有說謊的一個更乾淨的原因。

3025
02:44:04,660 --> 02:44:05,900
They're probably not fooling you.
他們可能沒有在騙你。

3026
02:44:05,900 --> 02:44:07,340
They're not snowing you.
他們沒有在矇騙你。

3027
02:44:07,340 --> 02:44:13,180
At some level, every founder has to lie to every employee of the company that they have
在某種程度上，每個創始人都必須對公司的每個員工說謊，

3028
02:44:13,180 --> 02:44:17,300
or they have to convince them that it's better for you to work for me than is to do what
或者他們必須說服他們，為我工作比做我

3029
02:44:17,300 --> 02:44:19,500
I did and go work for yourself.
做過的事、自己創業要好。

3030
02:44:19,500 --> 02:44:23,420
So I've always had a hard time with that, which is why the only honest whiff in my companies,
所以我一直對此感到很困難，這就是為什麼在我的公司裡，唯一誠實的

3031
02:44:23,420 --> 02:44:26,780
I've recruited entrepreneurs and I tell them you're going to get to be entrepreneurial
做法是，我招募企業家，我告訴他們你將會在這家公司

3032
02:44:26,780 --> 02:44:30,940
in this company and the day you're ready to go start your own next thing, I'm going to
發揮創業精神，當你準備好開始你的下一個事業時，我將

3033
02:44:30,940 --> 02:44:31,940
support you.
支持你。

3034
02:44:31,940 --> 02:44:35,460
I'm never going to get in the way of you starting a company, but this can be a good place for
我永遠不會阻礙你創業，但這裡可以是

3035
02:44:35,460 --> 02:44:39,820
you to learn how to build a good team and build a good culture, how to find product market
你學習如何建立好團隊、好文化、如何找到產品市場

3036
02:44:39,820 --> 02:44:45,580
fit to perfect your skills and meet some amazing people while you figure out exactly what is
契合度、完善你的技能、遇見一些了不起的人，同時你弄清楚

3037
02:44:45,580 --> 02:44:51,180
going to do because positioning, timing, deliberation are very important when starting a company.
該做什麼，因為定位、時機、深思熟慮在創業時非常重要。

3038
02:44:51,180 --> 02:44:54,720
But what I've never been able to do is look them in the face and say, you must be at your
但我從來沒能做到的是，直視他們說，你必須在早上

3039
02:44:54,720 --> 02:44:57,980
desk by 8 a.m. because I'm not going to be at my desk by 8 a.m.
八點前到你的辦公桌前，因為我不會在早上八點前到我的辦公桌前。

3040
02:44:57,980 --> 02:45:02,380
I want my freedom or say to them that you're great at being a director today and you'll
我想要我的自由，或者對他們說，你今天做總監很棒，明天

3041
02:45:02,380 --> 02:45:07,620
be a VP tomorrow, putting them into that career path track because I don't believe in it myself.
就會是副總裁，把他們放進那個職業道路上，因為我自己不相信那一套。

3042
02:45:07,620 --> 02:45:11,460
If anyone is giving advice on how to get rich and they're also making money off of it, they
如果有人在給如何致富的建議，同時也從中賺錢，他們

3043
02:45:11,460 --> 02:45:13,380
should have made their money elsewhere.
應該在別處賺了錢。

3044
02:45:13,380 --> 02:45:15,540
You don't want to learn how to be fit from a fat person.
你不想向胖子學習如何健身。

3045
02:45:15,540 --> 02:45:19,100
You don't want to learn how to be happy from a depressed person.
你不想向憂鬱的人學習如何快樂。

3046
02:45:19,100 --> 02:45:22,500
So you don't want to learn how to be rich from a poor person, but you also don't want
所以你不想向窮人學習如何致富，但你也不想

3047
02:45:22,500 --> 02:45:26,380
to learn how to be rich from somebody who makes their money by telling people how to
向靠教人如何致富來賺錢的人學習

3048
02:45:26,380 --> 02:45:27,380
be rich.
如何致富。

3049
02:45:27,380 --> 02:45:28,820
It's suspect.
這很可疑。

3050
02:45:28,820 --> 02:45:34,340
Anytime you see somebody who's actually gotten rich following some guru's advice on getting
每當你看到有人真的聽了某位大師關於

3051
02:45:34,340 --> 02:45:41,140
rich, just remember that in any random process, if you run it long enough and if enough people
致富的建議而致富，只要記住，在任何隨機過程中，如果你運行得夠久，而且有足夠多的人

3052
02:45:41,140 --> 02:45:47,740
participate in it, you will always get every single possible outcome with probability one.
參與，你總是會以機率一得到每一個可能的結果。

3053
02:45:47,740 --> 02:45:51,420
There's a lot of random error in there and then also this is why you have to absolutely
那裡有很多隨機誤差，這也是為什麼你必須絕對

3054
02:45:51,420 --> 02:45:55,820
and completely ignore business journalists and economist academics when they talk about
完全忽略商業記者和經濟學家在談論

3055
02:45:55,820 --> 02:45:56,820
private companies.
私人公司時的言論。

3056
02:45:56,820 --> 02:46:01,200
I won't even name names, but like when a famous economist rails on Bitcoin or when
我甚至不點名，但比如當一位著名的經濟學家抨擊比特幣，或者當

3057
02:46:01,200 --> 02:46:05,820
a business journalist attacks the latest company that's IPO-ing, it's complete nonsense.
一位商業記者攻擊最新一家要上市的公司時，那完全是胡說八道。

3058
02:46:05,820 --> 02:46:07,660
Those people have never built anything.
那些人從未建造過任何東西。

3059
02:46:07,660 --> 02:46:08,660
They're professional critics.
他們是職業評論家。

3060
02:46:08,660 --> 02:46:10,380
They don't know anything about making money.
他們對賺錢一無所知。

3061
02:46:10,380 --> 02:46:14,060
All they know is how to criticize and get page views and you're literally becoming
他們只知道如何批評和獲得頁面瀏覽量，而你簡直是在

3062
02:46:14,060 --> 02:46:15,940
dumber by reading them.
閱讀他們的文章而變得更笨。

3063
02:46:15,940 --> 02:46:16,940
You're burning neurons.
你在燒毀神經元。

3064
02:46:16,940 --> 02:46:21,220
I'll leave you with a quote from Nassim Taleb that I liked where he said, "If you want to
我留下一句我喜歡的納西姆·塔雷伯的話，他說：「如果你想

3065
02:46:21,220 --> 02:46:25,500
be a philosopher king, first become a king and then become a philosopher, not first become
成為一位哲學家國王，首先成為國王，然後再成為哲學家，而不是先成為

3066
02:46:25,500 --> 02:46:27,780
a philosopher and then become a king."
哲學家，然後再成為國王。」

3067
02:46:27,780 --> 02:46:32,180
I'm glad you brought up Taleb because I was going to finish this by saying just remember
我很高興你提到塔雷伯，因為我本來打算用記住

3068
02:46:32,180 --> 02:46:37,260
the title of his first book, which is Fooled by Randomness.
他第一本書的書名來結束，也就是《被隨機性所愚弄》。

3069
02:46:37,260 --> 02:46:40,380
One of the reasons why we're a little vague in this podcast is because we're trying to
我們在這個播客中 biraz模糊的原因之一是，我們試圖

3070
02:46:40,380 --> 02:46:44,700
lay down principles that are timeless as opposed to just giving you the winning lottery ticket
闡述永恆的原則，而不是僅僅給你昨天的

3071
02:46:44,700 --> 02:46:46,620
numbers from yesterday.
中獎彩票號碼。

3072
02:46:46,620 --> 02:46:52,940
You summarized this entire tweet storm with two words, productize yourself.
你用兩個詞總結了整個推文風暴：將你自己產品化。

3073
02:46:52,940 --> 02:46:55,040
Productize and yourself.
產品化和你自己。

3074
02:46:55,040 --> 02:47:02,380
Self has uniqueness, productize has leverage, yourself has accountability, productize has
自己有獨特性，產品化有槓桿，你自己有責任，產品化有

3075
02:47:02,380 --> 02:47:06,460
specific knowledge, yourself also has specific knowledge in there.
特定知識，你自己也有特定知識。

3076
02:47:06,460 --> 02:47:10,420
All of these pieces, you can combine them into these two words.
所有這些碎片，你可以把它們組合在這兩個詞裡。

3077
02:47:10,420 --> 02:47:13,660
Whenever you're doing anything in business, if you're looking towards the long term of
每當你在商場上做任何事，如果你著眼於長期的

3078
02:47:13,660 --> 02:47:17,580
getting wealthy, you should ask yourself, "Is this authentic to me?
致富，你應該問自己：「這對我來說是真實的嗎？

3079
02:47:17,580 --> 02:47:20,220
Is it myself that I'm projecting?
我投射的是我自己嗎？

3080
02:47:20,220 --> 02:47:21,980
Then am I productizing it?
然後我有把它產品化嗎？

3081
02:47:21,980 --> 02:47:22,980
Am I scaling it?
我有在擴大規模嗎？

3082
02:47:22,980 --> 02:47:27,780
Am I scaling with labor or with capital or with code or with media?"
我是在用勞動力、資本、程式碼還是媒體來擴大規模？」

3083
02:47:27,780 --> 02:47:30,060
It's a very handy, simple mnemonic.
這是一個非常方便、簡單的助記法。

3084
02:47:30,060 --> 02:47:31,060
What is this podcast?
這是什麼播客？

3085
02:47:31,060 --> 02:47:32,220
This is a podcast called Nival.
這是一個叫做 Nival 的播客。

3086
02:47:32,220 --> 02:47:35,000
I'm literally productizing myself with a podcast.
我簡直是在用播客將我自己產品化。

3087
02:47:35,000 --> 02:47:40,360
You want to figure out what you're uniquely good at or what you uniquely are and apply
你想找出你獨特擅長什麼，或者你獨特是什麼，然後應用

3088
02:47:40,360 --> 02:47:44,740
as much leverage as possible.
盡可能多的槓桿。

3089
02:47:44,740 --> 02:47:46,820
Making money isn't even something you do.
賺錢甚至不是你做的事。

3090
02:47:46,820 --> 02:47:48,500
It's not a skill.
它不是一項技能。

3091
02:47:48,500 --> 02:47:51,980
It's who you are stamped out a million times.
它是你這個人被印了百萬次。

3092
02:47:51,980 --> 02:47:56,300
Making money should be a function of your identity and what you like to do.
賺錢應該是你身分和你喜歡做什麼的函數。

3093
02:47:56,300 --> 02:47:58,980
Another tweet that I really liked was, "This was not mine.
另一則我非常喜歡的推文是：「這不是我的。

3094
02:47:58,980 --> 02:47:59,980
Somebody else put this up.
是別人發的。

3095
02:47:59,980 --> 02:48:01,600
They said, 'Find three hobbies.
他們說：『找三個嗜好。

3096
02:48:01,600 --> 02:48:05,020
One that makes you money, one that keeps you fit, and one that makes you creative.'"
一個能賺錢，一個能健身，一個能讓你更有創意。』」

3097
02:48:05,020 --> 02:48:06,700
I would change that slightly.
我會稍微改變一下。

3098
02:48:06,700 --> 02:48:10,540
I would say, "One that makes you money, one that makes you fit, and one that makes you
我會說：「一個讓你賺錢，一個讓你健身，一個讓你

3099
02:48:10,540 --> 02:48:11,540
smarter."
更聰明。」

3100
02:48:11,540 --> 02:48:14,700
In my case, my hobbies would be reading, making money.
在我的情況下，我的嗜好是閱讀、賺錢。

3101
02:48:14,700 --> 02:48:18,700
I love working with startups, either investing in them, brainstorming them, starting them.
我喜歡和新創公司合作，不管是投資、腦力激盪還是創辦它們。

3102
02:48:18,700 --> 02:48:22,540
I just love that ideation and initial creation phase around startups.
我就是喜歡新創公司周圍的構思和初始創作階段。

3103
02:48:22,540 --> 02:48:26,180
Then on the hobby that keeps you fit, I don't really have one.
然後在保持健康的嗜好上，我其實沒有。

3104
02:48:26,180 --> 02:48:28,780
Closest thing I have is yoga, but that's where I fell apart.
我最接近的是瑜伽，但那是我崩潰的地方。

3105
02:48:28,780 --> 02:48:33,600
I think people who early in life discover something like surfing or swimming or tennis
我認為那些在生命早期發現像衝浪、游泳或網球這樣的事情的人

3106
02:48:33,600 --> 02:48:38,260
or some sport that they continue doing throughout most of their life are very lucky because
或者一些他們一生中大部分時間都繼續做的運動，他們很幸運，因為

3107
02:48:38,260 --> 02:48:40,940
they found a hobby that will make them fit.
他們找到了一個能讓他們健身的嗜好。

3108
02:48:40,940 --> 02:48:43,340
We've finished discussing the tweet storm.
我們已經討論完推文風暴了。

3109
02:48:43,340 --> 02:48:48,300
We're going to spend some time on Q&A and discussing some of the tweets on the cutting
我們將花一些時間進行問答，並討論一些被刪減的

3110
02:48:48,300 --> 02:48:51,740
room floor that didn't make it into the tweet storm.
推文，它們沒有進入推文風暴。

3111
02:48:51,740 --> 02:48:56,900
My first question is, "Do you think there are some common failure modes or typical things
我的第一個問題是：「你認為人們在嘗試應用這些建議時，有沒有一些常見的失敗模式或典型

3112
02:48:56,900 --> 02:49:01,100
that people do wrong when they're trying to apply this advice?"
的錯誤做法？」

3113
02:49:01,100 --> 02:49:06,520
A lot of people don't understand what specific knowledge really is or how to "obtain" it.
很多人不明白特定知識到底是什麼，或者如何「獲得」它。

3114
02:49:06,520 --> 02:49:09,860
People don't understand what accountability really entails.
人們不明白責任究竟意味著什麼。

3115
02:49:09,860 --> 02:49:13,500
They think that accountability means being successfully accountable.
他們認為責任意味著成功地負起責任。

3116
02:49:13,500 --> 02:49:17,700
No, it means that you have to stick your neck out and fail with your name out there publicly
不，這意味著你必須冒險，並在公開場合以你的名義失敗

3117
02:49:17,700 --> 02:49:20,140
and be willing to let people hate on you.
並願意讓人們討厭你。

3118
02:49:20,140 --> 02:49:25,060
One of the reasons I'm less active on Twitter lately is because every tweet summons an army
我最近在推特上比較不活躍的原因之一是，每一條推文都會召來一群

3119
02:49:25,060 --> 02:49:27,580
of nitpickers and haters and it gets exhausting.
挑剔者和仇恨者，這讓人筋疲力盡。

3120
02:49:27,580 --> 02:49:29,860
But on the other hand, you have to learn how to ignore them.
但另一方面，你必須學會如何忽略他們。

3121
02:49:29,860 --> 02:49:31,820
Otherwise, you can't survive on Twitter.
否則，你無法在推特上生存。

3122
02:49:31,820 --> 02:49:36,220
A lot of people try to reconcile it with like, "Should I quit my 9-5 job or not?"
很多人試圖把它和「我應該辭掉朝九晚五的工作嗎？」這樣的事情相協調。

3123
02:49:36,220 --> 02:49:37,500
That can be a very hard decision.
那可能是一個非常困難的決定。

3124
02:49:37,500 --> 02:49:39,120
I don't think you need to go that extreme.
我認為你不需要那麼極端。

3125
02:49:39,120 --> 02:49:43,260
You can start applying accountability and leverage and specific knowledge even within
你甚至可以在你現有的

3126
02:49:43,260 --> 02:49:44,580
your existing career.
職業生涯中，開始應用責任、槓桿和特定知識。

3127
02:49:44,580 --> 02:49:49,180
It doesn't have to necessarily be fork off and do something else completely.
不一定要完全分岔去做別的事。

3128
02:49:49,180 --> 02:49:54,020
A lot of people will use it as a way to agree and disagree with their existing biases.
很多人會用它來同意或不同意他們現有的偏見。

3129
02:49:54,020 --> 02:49:57,660
They'll say, "Oh yeah, I agree with that part," or "That part you're completely wrong."
他們會說：「哦，是的，我同意那部分，」或者「那部分你完全錯了。」

3130
02:49:57,660 --> 02:50:01,940
The most interesting parts should be the ones that you disagree with because clearly, I've
最有趣的部分應該是你不同意的那些，因為顯然，我

3131
02:50:01,940 --> 02:50:03,760
proven that I know a few things.
證明了我懂一些事情。

3132
02:50:03,760 --> 02:50:08,620
So if you disagree with it, then maybe that is an area where you can improve your thinking.
所以如果你不同意，那麼或許那是一個你可以改進你思考的地方。

3133
02:50:08,620 --> 02:50:12,980
I definitely improve my thinking all the time, but I will tell you that in this tweet storm,
我絕對會一直改進我的思考，但我會告訴你，在這個推文風暴中，

3134
02:50:12,980 --> 02:50:15,340
I put down the minimum viable principles.
我寫下了最低可行原則。

3135
02:50:15,340 --> 02:50:20,660
I did not put down the whole universe of what I know about how to make money because 90%
我沒有寫下我所知道的關於如何賺錢的全部宇宙，因為90%

3136
02:50:20,660 --> 02:50:21,660
of it is suspect.
都是可疑的。

3137
02:50:21,660 --> 02:50:26,100
I put down the bedrock, the stuff that I'm pretty solidly sure about.
我寫下了基石，那些我相當確定的東西。

3138
02:50:26,100 --> 02:50:31,420
I have not yet seen a tweet that has successfully contradicted anything in this tweet storm
我還沒有看到一條推文成功地反駁了這個推文風暴中的任何內容

3139
02:50:31,420 --> 02:50:33,700
that would cause me to say, "Oh yeah, I got that one wrong."
會讓我說：「哦，是的，那個我錯了。」

3140
02:50:33,700 --> 02:50:38,100
I think another place where people get a little bit off is they look at this and they say,
我認為人們有點偏離的另一個地方是，他們看著這個，然後說，

3141
02:50:38,100 --> 02:50:40,620
"Well, this only applies to tech entrepreneurs."
「嗯，這只適用於科技企業家。」

3142
02:50:40,620 --> 02:50:41,620
I disagree.
我不同意。

3143
02:50:41,620 --> 02:50:46,380
The example that I gave about real estate was a good one in that regard.
我給的關於房地產的例子在這方面是個好例子。

3144
02:50:46,380 --> 02:50:48,080
It's just the nature of leverage.
這就是槓桿的本質。

3145
02:50:48,080 --> 02:50:50,820
The technology drives leverage.
科技驅動槓桿。

3146
02:50:50,820 --> 02:50:55,080
So I'm going to push you in a tech direction to get the free leverage that is available
所以我會把你推向科技方向，以獲得可用的

3147
02:50:55,080 --> 02:50:56,340
in tech.
免費槓桿。

3148
02:50:56,340 --> 02:50:59,740
And obviously, this message is being delivered through the internet, so it's going to have
顯然，這個訊息是通過網路傳遞的，所以它會有

3149
02:50:59,740 --> 02:51:01,860
a pro internet bias.
偏向網路的偏見。

3150
02:51:01,860 --> 02:51:06,140
There are also people who believe that it's unfair to the people who don't have these
也有人認為，對那些沒有這些

3151
02:51:06,140 --> 02:51:09,380
opportunities to do anything with the opportunities that they do have.
機會的人來說，用他們現有的機會做任何事是不公平的。

3152
02:51:09,380 --> 02:51:11,900
So that defeatist attitude, why even get out of bed in the morning?
那種失敗主義的態度，為什麼早上還要起床？

3153
02:51:11,900 --> 02:51:13,660
90% of people are dead.
百分之九十的人都死了。

3154
02:51:13,660 --> 02:51:15,540
There's a lot of people who are living on a dollar a day.
有很多人每天只靠一美元生活。

3155
02:51:15,540 --> 02:51:16,860
Do you live on a dollar a day?
你每天只靠一美元生活嗎？

3156
02:51:16,860 --> 02:51:17,860
No.
不。

3157
02:51:17,860 --> 02:51:21,540
It's up to you to play the hand that you're dealt to the best of your ability.
如何盡你所能地打好你手中的牌，取決於你自己。

3158
02:51:21,540 --> 02:51:25,020
And then you can take the winnings, the pot from that hand and do whatever you want with
然後你可以拿著那手牌的獎金，那筆錢，做任何你想

3159
02:51:25,020 --> 02:51:26,620
it to fix the world.
做的事來改變世界。

3160
02:51:26,620 --> 02:51:31,420
But saying that you should not do things just because others can't do things is living in
但說你不應該做事，只是因為別人做不到，那是活在

3161
02:51:31,420 --> 02:51:32,420
denial.
否定中。

3162
02:51:32,420 --> 02:51:34,540
It's an excuse to not do anything.
這是不做任何事的藉口。

3163
02:51:34,540 --> 02:51:39,380
There are also people who believe that wealth creation is fundamentally at odds with an
也有人認為，財富創造從根本上與

3164
02:51:39,380 --> 02:51:41,940
environmentally safe and healthy planet.
環境安全和健康的地球相矛盾。

3165
02:51:41,940 --> 02:51:45,720
And they view the whole thing as a giant zero-sum game.
他們把整件事看作一個巨大的零和遊戲。

3166
02:51:45,720 --> 02:51:47,380
That's a false narrative as well.
那也是一個錯誤的敘述。

3167
02:51:47,380 --> 02:51:51,620
Elon Musk is not playing a zero-sum game with the environment and there are plenty of entrepreneurs
伊隆·馬斯克並不是在和環境玩零和遊戲，而且有很多企業家

3168
02:51:51,620 --> 02:51:52,620
who are not.
也不是。

3169
02:51:52,620 --> 02:51:57,200
If anything, there is a word that environmentalists love, which is sustainability.
如果有的話，有一個環保人士喜歡的詞，那就是永續性。

3170
02:51:57,200 --> 02:52:01,380
And for-profit businesses are at least financially sustainable, if nothing else.
而營利事業至少在財務上是可持續的，如果沒有別的。

3171
02:52:01,380 --> 02:52:04,220
You can do a B Corp, which has a dual mission.
你可以成立一個 B 型企業，它有雙重使命。

3172
02:52:04,220 --> 02:52:08,100
A lot of non-profit efforts would actually be better served by for-profit companies
很多非營利組織的努力實際上由營利公司來做會更好

3173
02:52:08,100 --> 02:52:10,980
because then they wouldn't have to go begging for grants all the time.
因為那樣他們就不必一直去乞求補助金了。

3174
02:52:10,980 --> 02:52:12,980
They would be financially sustainable.
他們在財務上會是可持續的。

3175
02:52:12,980 --> 02:52:18,740
Some great founders realize their philanthropic visions by running a business.
一些偉大的創辦人通過經營企業來實現他們的慈善願景。

3176
02:52:18,740 --> 02:52:21,040
Who is this advice targeted to?
這些建議是針對誰的？

3177
02:52:21,040 --> 02:52:23,420
Is it for my Lyft driver?
是給我的 Lyft 司機嗎？

3178
02:52:23,420 --> 02:52:26,280
Is it for an internet entrepreneur?
是給網路創業家嗎？

3179
02:52:26,280 --> 02:52:29,760
Is it for somebody who wants to start a YouTube channel?
是給想開 YouTube 頻道的人嗎？

3180
02:52:29,760 --> 02:52:33,660
Because it comes from someone who's steeped in Silicon Valley and tech companies, it's
因為它來自一個深耕矽谷和科技公司的人，所以

3181
02:52:33,660 --> 02:52:35,740
always going to have a bias towards that.
總會對那方面有所偏見。

3182
02:52:35,740 --> 02:52:40,540
But I think it's good for anybody who wants to be entrepreneurial, anybody who wants to
但我認為這對任何想創業、任何想

3183
02:52:40,540 --> 02:52:46,860
control their own life, anybody who wants to deterministically and reliably improve
掌握自己生活、任何想確定性地、可靠地提升

3184
02:52:46,860 --> 02:52:52,500
their ability to create wealth over time, is patient and looking for the long haul.
自己隨時間創造財富的能力，並且有耐心、放眼長遠的人都有好處。

3185
02:52:52,500 --> 02:52:55,820
Certainly if you're 80 years old, retired, running out of energy, you should probably
當然，如果你80歲，退休了，精力耗盡，你可能

3186
02:52:55,820 --> 02:52:56,940
just stay retired.
就該繼續退休。

3187
02:52:56,940 --> 02:53:00,160
But there are 80 year olds who have a lot of energy and want to do new things and live
但也有80歲的人充滿活力，想做新事，為

3188
02:53:00,160 --> 02:53:02,020
for the future.
未來而活。

3189
02:53:02,020 --> 02:53:07,340
It can obviously apply very easily to a young person, I would say 9, 10 years old and up.
它顯然可以很輕易地應用在年輕人身上，我會說9、10歲以上。

3190
02:53:07,340 --> 02:53:12,220
The most difficult one is probably middle-aged because when we're in our 30s, 40s, 50s, we
最困難的可能是中年人，因為當我們30、40、50多歲時，我們

3191
02:53:12,220 --> 02:53:13,900
already have a lot invested.
已經投入了很多。

3192
02:53:13,900 --> 02:53:16,980
We have a lot of obligations because those are the years where we're earning and people
我們有很多義務，因為那些是我們賺錢的歲月，而且人們

3193
02:53:16,980 --> 02:53:18,540
are relying upon us.
依賴著我們。

3194
02:53:18,540 --> 02:53:22,580
We don't want to change because we don't want to admit defeat in what we've been doing
我們不想改變，因為我們不想承認至今所做之事的失敗。

3195
02:53:22,580 --> 02:53:23,580
to date.
。

3196
02:53:23,580 --> 02:53:25,700
But that's where it can actually be the most fruitful.
但那裡實際上可以是最有成果的地方。

3197
02:53:25,700 --> 02:53:27,380
It may be the most difficult pivot.
這可能是最困難的轉變。

3198
02:53:27,380 --> 02:53:31,140
You have a 9 to 5 job, you have a family relying upon you.
你有朝九晚五的工作，你有依賴你的家庭。

3199
02:53:31,140 --> 02:53:36,040
And so it may seem like the things in this podcast are far too idealistic.
所以這個播客裡的事情可能看起來太過理想化了。

3200
02:53:36,040 --> 02:53:38,980
But maybe it can inform your weekend projects.
但或許它可以為你的週末專案提供資訊。

3201
02:53:38,980 --> 02:53:43,000
Maybe it can inform your self-reeducation that you do at night on the internet.
或許它可以為你在晚上於網路上做的自我再教育提供資訊。

3202
02:53:43,000 --> 02:53:46,280
Maybe it can inform what roles you take on in the company that you're at because they
或許它可以為你在公司裡扮演的角色提供資訊，因為它們

3203
02:53:46,280 --> 02:53:51,200
move you closer and closer to points of leverage, points of judgment or points where you're
讓你越來越接近槓桿點、判斷點或你

3204
02:53:51,200 --> 02:53:53,380
naturally good at and you're authentic.
天生擅長且真實的地方。

3205
02:53:53,380 --> 02:53:55,860
It might cause you to take on more accountability.
它可能會讓你承擔更多的責任。

3206
02:53:55,860 --> 02:54:00,580
Even applied piece meals, these principles can directionally guide you regardless of
即使是零碎地應用，這些原則也能在你人生的任何階段

3207
02:54:00,580 --> 02:54:02,900
what stage you are at in life short of retirement.
，除了退休以外，為你提供方向性指引。

3208
02:54:02,900 --> 02:54:06,140
And if you're in retirement, just test them to see if they're true and then teach them
如果你退休了，就測試它們看是否屬實，然後教給

3209
02:54:06,140 --> 02:54:07,740
to your kids or your grandkids.
你的孩子或孫子。

3210
02:54:07,740 --> 02:54:09,820
There's many different ways to participate.
有很多不同的參與方式。

3211
02:54:09,820 --> 02:54:15,400
It should really apply to almost everybody who has a complete body, sound mind and is
它應該真的適用於幾乎所有身體健全、心智健全且

3212
02:54:15,400 --> 02:54:16,760
looking to work.
想工作的人。

3213
02:54:16,760 --> 02:54:22,420
I think one way to apply the advice is to look at who is getting the leverage off of
我認為應用這個建議的一個方法是，看看誰從你

3214
02:54:22,420 --> 02:54:24,300
the work that you're doing.
的工作中獲得了槓桿。

3215
02:54:24,300 --> 02:54:29,540
Look up the value chain, look at who's above you and who is above them and see how they
往價值鏈上游看，看看誰在你上面，誰在他們上面，看看他們

3216
02:54:29,540 --> 02:54:34,020
are taking advantage of the time and the work that you're doing and how they're applying
如何利用你的時間和工作，以及他們如何

3217
02:54:34,020 --> 02:54:35,780
leverage to it.
應用槓桿。

3218
02:54:35,780 --> 02:54:40,280
People do that naturally in that they want to move up the corporate ladder, but that's
人們很自然地會那樣做，他們想在公司階梯上往上爬，但那

3219
02:54:40,280 --> 02:54:43,000
mostly about managing other people.
主要是關於管理他人。

3220
02:54:43,000 --> 02:54:48,780
And what you really want to be doing is managing more capital, products, media and community.
而你真正想做的是管理更多的資本、產品、媒體和社群。

3221
02:54:48,780 --> 02:54:53,560
People think about moving up the ladder in their organization, but they don't think that
人們考慮在組織內晉升，但他們不常

3222
02:54:53,560 --> 02:54:58,620
often about moving to a different organization or creating their own organization to get more
考慮跳槽到另一個組織或創建自己的組織以獲得更多

3223
02:54:58,620 --> 02:55:00,220
leverage.
槓桿。

3224
02:55:00,220 --> 02:55:04,900
In general, setterus paribus, fancy Latin words for all other things equal, you will
一般來說，setterus paribus，這是個花俏的拉丁詞，意思是其他條件相同的情況下，你會

3225
02:55:04,900 --> 02:55:07,980
do better in a smaller organization than a larger one.
在較小的組織中比在較大的組織中做得更好。

3226
02:55:07,980 --> 02:55:11,160
You will have more accountability, it'll be more visible.
你會有更多的責任，也會更顯眼。

3227
02:55:11,160 --> 02:55:15,660
You are more likely to be able to try on multiple things to find out the thing that you are
你更有可能嘗試多種事情，找出你

3228
02:55:15,660 --> 02:55:17,340
uniquely good at.
獨特擅長的事情。

3229
02:55:17,340 --> 02:55:20,620
People are more likely to give you leverage through battlefield promotions.
人們更可能透過戰場晉升給予你槓桿。

3230
02:55:20,620 --> 02:55:25,060
You're going to have more flexibility, there'll be more authenticity to how the company operates,
你將擁有更多彈性，公司的運作方式也會更真實，

3231
02:55:25,060 --> 02:55:28,740
a good progression for a career, start out in a large company and then progressively
一個好的職涯發展路徑是，從大公司開始，然後逐步

3232
02:55:28,740 --> 02:55:30,660
move to smaller and smaller ones.
轉到越來越小的公司。

3233
02:55:30,660 --> 02:55:34,180
It's very hard to go from a small company to working in a larger company.
從小公司跳到大公司工作非常困難。

3234
02:55:34,180 --> 02:55:37,980
Larger companies tend to be more about politics and less about merit.
大公司往往更注重政治，而不是實力。

3235
02:55:37,980 --> 02:55:41,900
They're more stable, but they're less innovative situations.
它們更穩定，但創新性較差。

3236
02:55:41,900 --> 02:55:47,500
The goal long term is if we are all wealthy is that we're all working for ourselves and
長遠目標是，如果我們都很富有，那我們都為自己工作，

3237
02:55:47,500 --> 02:55:50,620
the people who are working for us are essentially robots.
而為我們工作的人基本上都是機器人。

3238
02:55:50,620 --> 02:55:56,060
And today that's software robots in data centers executing code, tomorrow it could be delivery
今天，那是在數據中心執行程式碼的軟體機器人，明天可能是送貨

3239
02:55:56,060 --> 02:55:59,720
bots, flying bots, mechanical bots that are carrying things around.
機器人、飛行機器人、搬運物品的機械機器人。

3240
02:55:59,720 --> 02:56:03,980
This goes back to this idea of the best relationships are peer relationships.
這回到了「最好的關係是同儕關係」這個觀點。

3241
02:56:03,980 --> 02:56:06,620
If there's someone above you, then that's someone to learn from.
如果你上面有人，那他就是你學習的對象。

3242
02:56:06,620 --> 02:56:10,660
If you're not learning from them and improving, then there shouldn't be anybody above you.
如果你沒有從他們身上學習並進步，那就不應該有任何人在你之上。

3243
02:56:10,660 --> 02:56:14,500
If there's somebody below you, it's because you're teaching them and enabling them.
如果你下面有人，那是因為你在教導他們、賦予他們能力。

3244
02:56:14,500 --> 02:56:18,180
If you're not teaching them and enabling them, then get a robot underneath, you don't need
如果你沒有教導他們、賦予他們能力，那就找個機器人來做，你不需要

3245
02:56:18,180 --> 02:56:19,760
a human being below you.
一個在你之下的人類。

3246
02:56:19,760 --> 02:56:25,420
This is utopian and it's long ways off, but in the not too distant future, anybody who
這是烏托邦式的，還有很長的路要走，但在不遠的將來，任何

3247
02:56:25,420 --> 02:56:29,560
wants to work for themselves will be able to work for themselves.
想為自己工作的人，都將能夠為自己工作。

3248
02:56:29,560 --> 02:56:31,320
You may have to make other sacrifices.
你可能需要做出其他犧牲。

3249
02:56:31,320 --> 02:56:32,620
You may have to take on more risk.
你可能需要承擔更多風險。

3250
02:56:32,620 --> 02:56:34,400
You may have to take on more accountability.
你可能需要承擔更多責任。

3251
02:56:34,400 --> 02:56:39,560
You may have less steady income, but more and more, I think the younger generation is
你的收入可能不那麼穩定，但越來越多，我認為年輕一代

3252
02:56:39,560 --> 02:56:43,220
realizing that if they're going to work, they're going to work for themselves.
正在意識到，如果他們要工作，他們就要為自己工作。

3253
02:56:43,220 --> 02:56:48,700
In one of your tweets, you listed out some of the things you should study like programming,
在你的一則推文中，你列出了一些你應該學習的東西，比如程式設計、

3254
02:56:48,700 --> 02:56:52,380
sales, reading, writing, arithmetic.
銷售、閱讀、寫作、算術。

3255
02:56:52,380 --> 02:56:57,260
One of the items that ended up on the cutting room floor was that you should also study
其中一項最終被刪掉的項目是，你也應該學習

3256
02:56:57,260 --> 02:56:58,580
ethics.
倫理學。

3257
02:56:58,580 --> 02:57:02,060
I was originally going to put that out there as a concession to people who believe that
我原本打算把它放進去，作為對那些認為

3258
02:57:02,060 --> 02:57:05,880
making money is evil and that the only way to make it is evil.
賺錢是邪惡的、而且只能用邪惡的方式賺錢的人的一種讓步。

3259
02:57:05,880 --> 02:57:09,220
But then I realized ethics is not necessarily something you study.
但後來我意識到，倫理不一定是你能學到的東西。

3260
02:57:09,220 --> 02:57:12,300
It's something you think about and it's something you do.
它是你思考的事情，也是你做的事情。

3261
02:57:12,300 --> 02:57:16,760
Every one of us has a personal moral code and where you got that moral code from is
我們每個人都有自己的道德準則，而你從哪裡得到這個道德準則是

3262
02:57:16,760 --> 02:57:18,060
different for everybody.
因人而異的。

3263
02:57:18,060 --> 02:57:19,460
It's not like I can point you to a textbook.
這不像我可以給你指一本教科書。

3264
02:57:19,460 --> 02:57:22,980
Sure, I could point you some Roman and Greek text, but that's not going to certainly make
當然，我可以給你推薦一些羅馬和希臘的文本，但那肯定不會讓你

3265
02:57:22,980 --> 02:57:24,620
you ethical.
變得有道德。

3266
02:57:24,620 --> 02:57:25,660
There's the golden rule, right?
有黃金法則，對吧？

3267
02:57:25,660 --> 02:57:28,300
Do unto others as you would have them do unto you.
己所欲，施於人。

3268
02:57:28,300 --> 02:57:32,540
Or there's Nassim Taleb's silver rule, which is don't do unto others what you don't want
或者還有納西姆·塔雷伯的白銀法則，也就是己所不欲，

3269
02:57:32,540 --> 02:57:34,140
them doing unto you.
勿施於人。

3270
02:57:34,140 --> 02:57:38,180
Once you've been in business long enough, you will realize how much of business is about
一旦你在商場待得夠久，你就會意識到商業有多大程度上是關於

3271
02:57:38,180 --> 02:57:41,780
trust and it's about trust because you want to compound interest.
信任的，而它之所以關於信任，是因為你想要複利。

3272
02:57:41,780 --> 02:57:45,460
You want to be able to work for long periods of time with trustworthy people without having
你希望能與值得信賴的人長期合作，而不用

3273
02:57:45,460 --> 02:57:49,540
to reevaluate every discussion, without having to rethink each time and without having to
重新評估每一次討論，不用每次都重新思考，也不用

3274
02:57:49,540 --> 02:57:51,900
constantly look over your shoulder.
時時刻刻提防。

3275
02:57:51,900 --> 02:57:57,140
Over time, you gravitate towards working with certain kinds of people and similarly, those
久而久之，你會傾向於與某些類型的人合作，同樣地，那些

3276
02:57:57,140 --> 02:58:02,780
people will gravitate towards working with other ethical quote unquote people.
人也會傾向於與其他所謂有道德的人合作。

3277
02:58:02,780 --> 02:58:07,140
Being ethical turns out to be a selfish imperative.
講道德結果變成一種自私的必要。

3278
02:58:07,140 --> 02:58:12,220
You want to be ethical because it attracts the other long-term players in the network
你想要講道德，因為它能吸引網絡中其他的長期參與者，

3279
02:58:12,220 --> 02:58:14,420
and then they want to do business with you.
然後他們就想跟你做生意。

3280
02:58:14,420 --> 02:58:18,380
If you build a good enough reputation for being ethical, eventually people will pay you just
如果你建立了足夠好的道德聲譽，最終人們會付錢給你，只為了

3281
02:58:18,380 --> 02:58:22,540
to do deals through you because you're the one who will validate and ensure the deals
透過你來做交易，因為你是那個會驗證和確保交易的人，

3282
02:58:22,540 --> 02:58:26,620
by your presence because you wouldn't be involved with low quality stuff.
因為你的存在，因為你不會參與低品質的事情。

3283
02:58:26,620 --> 02:58:30,500
Being ethical actually pays off in the long run, but it's the very long run.
講道德從長遠來看確實有回報，但這是非常長遠的事。

3284
02:58:30,500 --> 02:58:34,300
In the short run, being unethical pays off, which is why so many people go for it.
短期內，不道德是有利可圖的，這就是為什麼這麼多人會這麼做。

3285
02:58:34,300 --> 02:58:36,180
It's a greedy algorithm.
這是一種貪婪演算法。

3286
02:58:36,180 --> 02:58:39,460
You can be ethical simply because you're long-term greedy.
你可以講道德，僅僅因為你是長期貪婪的。

3287
02:58:39,460 --> 02:58:45,180
I can even outline a framework for different parts of so-called ethics just based on the
我甚至可以基於長期自利的概念，為所謂倫理學的不同部分

3288
02:58:45,180 --> 02:58:47,300
idea of long-term selfishness.
勾勒出一個框架。

3289
02:58:47,300 --> 02:58:51,600
For example, you want to be honest because it leaves you with a clear mind.
例如，你想要誠實，因為它能讓你頭腦清晰。

3290
02:58:51,600 --> 02:58:53,320
You don't have two threads running in your head.
你腦中不會有兩條線在運作。

3291
02:58:53,320 --> 02:58:56,020
One is the lies that you told you to keep track of and the other one is what you're
一條是你說過的謊言，你得記住，另一條是你

3292
02:58:56,020 --> 02:58:57,020
saying.
正在說的話。

3293
02:58:57,020 --> 02:59:00,220
You just have to think about one thing at a time so you have more energy to think about
你只需要一次思考一件事，所以你有更多精力去思考

3294
02:59:00,220 --> 02:59:02,060
that thing so you're a clearer thinker.
那件事，所以你的思緒更清晰。

3295
02:59:02,060 --> 02:59:06,820
Also, by being honest, you're rejecting the people who only want to hear the pretty lies.
而且，透過誠實，你拒絕了那些只想聽漂亮謊言的人。

3296
02:59:06,820 --> 02:59:09,940
You force those people out of your network and sometimes it's painful like friends and
你將那些人趕出你的網絡，有時這很痛苦，像是朋友和

3297
02:59:09,940 --> 02:59:14,100
family but long-term you create room for the people who like you exactly the way that you
家人，但長期來看，你為那些喜歡你真實樣子的人

3298
02:59:14,100 --> 02:59:15,100
are.
創造了空間。

3299
02:59:15,100 --> 02:59:18,220
That is a selfish reason to be honest.
這是一個保持誠實的自私理由。

3300
02:59:18,220 --> 02:59:22,980
For example, in negotiations, if you're the kind of person who always tries to get the
例如，在談判中，如果你是那種總是想為自己爭取

3301
02:59:22,980 --> 02:59:30,100
best deal for yourself, you will win a lot of very early deals and it'll feel very good.
最好交易的人，你會贏得很多早期的交易，感覺會很棒。

3302
02:59:30,100 --> 02:59:33,820
On the other hand, there are a few people who will recognize that you're always scrabbling
另一方面，會有一些人意識到你總是在爭搶

3303
02:59:33,820 --> 02:59:37,900
and not acting fairly and they will tend to avoid you.
且行為不公，他們會傾向於避開你。

3304
02:59:37,900 --> 02:59:42,220
Over time, those people end up being the deal makers in the network because people go to
久而久之，那些人會成為網絡中的交易撮合者，因為人們會去找

3305
02:59:42,220 --> 02:59:45,940
them for a fair shake or to figure out what's fair.
他們尋求公平的交易，或者弄清楚什麼是公平的。

3306
02:59:45,940 --> 02:59:49,140
If you are cutting people fair deals, you don't get paid in the short term but in the
如果你給人公平的交易，短期內你不會得到回報，但

3307
02:59:49,140 --> 02:59:53,420
long term, everybody wants to deal with you and you end up being a market hub.
長期來看，每個人都想跟你做生意，你最終會成為一個市場中心。

3308
02:59:53,420 --> 02:59:56,940
You have more information, you have trust, you have reputation and people end up doing
你有更多的資訊，你有信任，你有聲譽，人們最終會

3309
02:59:56,940 --> 02:59:58,100
deals through you.
透過你做交易。

3310
02:59:58,100 --> 03:00:02,960
A lot of wisdom is just realizing the long-term consequences of your actions.
許多智慧就在於意識到你行為的長期後果。

3311
03:00:02,960 --> 03:00:06,780
The longer term you're willing to look, the wiser that you're going to seem to everybody
你願意看的越長遠，你對周圍所有人來說就顯得越有智慧

3312
03:00:06,780 --> 03:00:07,780
around you.
。

3313
03:00:07,780 --> 03:00:14,740
Do you want to tell us about some of the jobs that you had as a youth and the specific job
你願意告訴我們一些你年輕時做過的工作，以及那份讓你

3314
03:00:14,740 --> 03:00:20,180
that kicked off your fanatical obsession with creating wealth?
狂熱地癡迷於創造財富的具體工作嗎？

3315
03:00:20,180 --> 03:00:23,060
This gets a little personal and I don't want to do the humble brag thing.
這有點個人，我不想假裝謙虛地炫耀。

3316
03:00:23,060 --> 03:00:26,940
There was some thread going around on Twitter about like name five jobs you've held and
Twitter上有個話題在流傳，像是列出你做過的五份工作，然後

3317
03:00:26,940 --> 03:00:31,220
every rich person on there was trying to signal how they held like normal jobs.
上面的每個有錢人都在試圖表現他們也做過普通工作。

3318
03:00:31,220 --> 03:00:32,840
I don't want to play that game.
我不想玩那個遊戲。

3319
03:00:32,840 --> 03:00:34,860
I've held a bunch of menial jobs.
我做過一堆卑微的工作。

3320
03:00:34,860 --> 03:00:38,300
There are people who have had it worse than me, people who had it better than me.
有人比我更糟，也有人比我更好。

3321
03:00:38,300 --> 03:00:42,860
There was one point where I was washing dishes in the school cafeteria and I said, "F this.
有一次我在學校餐廳洗碗，我說：「去他的。

3322
03:00:42,860 --> 03:00:43,860
I hate this.
我討厭這個。

3323
03:00:43,860 --> 03:00:45,460
I can't do this anymore."
我再也做不下去了。」

3324
03:00:45,460 --> 03:00:51,340
I sweet-talk my way to a computer science prof of helping TA his CS class in algorithms
我甜言蜜語地說服一位電腦科學教授，讓我幫忙他教的演算法課當助教，

3325
03:00:51,340 --> 03:00:53,980
when I myself was completely unqualified for that.
而我自己當時完全不夠格。

3326
03:00:53,980 --> 03:00:58,700
It forced me to learn computer science algorithms so I could TA the rest of the course.
這迫使我學習電腦科學演算法，這樣我才能在剩下的課程中當助教。

3327
03:00:58,700 --> 03:01:03,700
That desire came out of the suffering of washing dishes in the college cafeteria, which is
那種渴望來自於在大學餐廳洗碗的痛苦，這

3328
03:01:03,700 --> 03:01:05,740
not to say there's anything wrong with that.
並不是說那有什麼不對。

3329
03:01:05,740 --> 03:01:08,780
There's nothing wrong with anything really, but it was just not for me.
其實任何事都沒有什麼不對，只是那不適合我。

3330
03:01:08,780 --> 03:01:09,820
I did not enjoy it.
我不喜歡。

3331
03:01:09,820 --> 03:01:15,220
I had an active mind and I wanted to make my money and earn my living through mental
我頭腦活躍，我想用腦力來賺錢和謀生，

3332
03:01:15,220 --> 03:01:17,460
activities, not through physical activities.
而不是用體力活動。

3333
03:01:17,460 --> 03:01:20,740
But sometimes it takes the suffering of doing the wrong thing to motivate you enough to
但有時候，做錯事的痛苦才能給你足夠的動力去

3334
03:01:20,740 --> 03:01:21,860
do the right thing.
做對的事。

3335
03:01:21,860 --> 03:01:26,620
I worked at a law firm for a while, a big prestigious law firm in New York City.
我在一家法律事務所工作了一段時間，一家紐約市有名望的大型事務所。

3336
03:01:26,620 --> 03:01:31,340
I had a big internship there and I basically got fired for surfing Usenet back in the day.
我在那裡實習，但基本上因為當時在逛Usenet而被解僱了。

3337
03:01:31,340 --> 03:01:33,780
This is before the internet was a big thing.
這是在網際網路還沒普及之前。

3338
03:01:33,780 --> 03:01:38,980
Usenet was the newsgroups and it was the only way for me to stay from being completely bored.
Usenet就是新聞群組，那是我唯一能避免完全無聊的方式。

3339
03:01:38,980 --> 03:01:42,500
I was an overpaid guy wearing a tie and a suit and I had to hang out in the conference
我是個穿著西裝領帶、薪水過高的傢伙，我必須待在會議室

3340
03:01:42,500 --> 03:01:45,740
room when the lawyers needed photocopies, I would make photocopies.
裡，當律師們需要影印時，我就去影印。

3341
03:01:45,740 --> 03:01:47,540
In the meantime, I would be bored out of my skull.
與此同時，我會無聊到快發瘋。

3342
03:01:47,540 --> 03:01:48,540
This is pre-iPhone.
這是在iPhone之前。

3343
03:01:48,540 --> 03:01:52,340
Thank God to Steve Jobs for saving us all from unending boredom.
感謝上帝讓史蒂夫·賈伯斯拯救我們脫離無止盡的無聊。

3344
03:01:52,340 --> 03:01:55,780
But I used to read the Wall Street Journal or anything that I could get my hands on.
但我過去會讀《華爾街日報》或任何我能拿到的東西。

3345
03:01:55,780 --> 03:01:59,540
I would have read the back of a brochure just to keep from going insane because listening
我會去讀傳單的背面，只為了避免發瘋，因為聽著

3346
03:01:59,540 --> 03:02:04,460
to a bunch of corporate lawyers discuss how to optimize minute details in a big contract
一群公司律師討論如何優化大合約中的細枝末節

3347
03:02:04,460 --> 03:02:06,020
is really dull.
真的很無聊。

3348
03:02:06,020 --> 03:02:09,340
They got mad at me because they wanted me to sit there quietly and not read the Wall
他們對我很生氣，因為他們要我安靜地坐在那裡，不要讀《華爾街

3349
03:02:09,340 --> 03:02:10,340
Street Journal.
日報》。

3350
03:02:10,340 --> 03:02:12,820
They said that's rude, that's misbehavior.
他們說那很無禮，那是行為不當。

3351
03:02:12,820 --> 03:02:16,940
So I got called up and reprimanded a bunch of times and then I was finally terminated
所以我被叫去訓斥了好幾次，然後我最終被解雇了，

3352
03:02:16,940 --> 03:02:21,780
and I was sent home in shame early from my very prestigious internship destroying my
我被提早從我非常有名望的實習中羞愧地送回家，毀了我的

3353
03:02:21,780 --> 03:02:26,020
chance of going to law school and I was unhappy for all of an hour.
去法學院的機會，我只不開心了一個小時。

3354
03:02:26,020 --> 03:02:29,100
But ultimately, it's one of the best things that ever happened to me because then I would
但最終，這是我發生過最好的事情之一，因為那樣我就會

3355
03:02:29,100 --> 03:02:31,080
have ended up as a lawyer.
成為律師。

3356
03:02:31,080 --> 03:02:34,500
Not that I have anything against lawyers, but it's not what I was meant to do.
不是我對律師有意見，而是那不是我該做的事。

3357
03:02:34,500 --> 03:02:38,980
You mentioned the catering job that you had a while back that really kicked off the whole
你提到你以前做過的餐飲工作，那份工作真的開啟了整個

3358
03:02:38,980 --> 03:02:40,780
obsession.
癡迷。

3359
03:02:40,780 --> 03:02:41,900
That was an envy thing.
那是出於嫉妒。

3360
03:02:41,900 --> 03:02:46,940
When I was in high school, I had to make some money to pay for my first semester at college
我高中的時候，我得賺些錢來支付我大學第一學期的學費

3361
03:02:46,940 --> 03:02:48,580
and I had to get a job.
所以我必須找份工作。

3362
03:02:48,580 --> 03:02:53,140
It was the summer of 1990, 1991 timeframe.
那是1990年、1991年的夏天。

3363
03:02:53,140 --> 03:02:55,680
This was the Bush senior recession.
這是老布希的經濟衰退。

3364
03:02:55,680 --> 03:02:58,660
If anyone who was alive back then remembers this, it was actually really hard to get a
如果當時還活著的人記得這件事，當時其實很難找到

3365
03:02:58,660 --> 03:02:59,660
job.
工作。

3366
02:59,660 --> 03:05,260
So I ended up working for an Indian food catering company and I ended up having to serve at
所以我最終在一家印度餐飲公司工作，結果必須在一個

3367
03:03:05,260 --> 03:03:08,780
a birthday party for a kid who was actually in my school.
我學校裡一個孩子的生日派對上服務。

3368
03:03:08,780 --> 03:03:13,180
I saw my classmates and I was out there serving food and drinks to them and that was incredibly
我看到我的同學，我在那裡為他們端上食物和飲料，那真是

3369
03:03:13,180 --> 03:03:14,180
embarrassing.
尷尬極了。

3370
03:03:14,180 --> 03:03:15,900
I wanted to hide away and die right there.
我當時真想躲起來死掉。

3371
03:03:15,900 --> 03:03:16,940
But you know what?
但你知道嗎？

3372
03:03:16,940 --> 03:03:17,940
It's all part of the plan.
這都是計畫的一部分。

3373
03:03:17,940 --> 03:03:19,340
It's all part of the motivation.
這都是動機的一部分。

3374
03:03:19,340 --> 03:03:23,060
If I hadn't had that happen, I probably wouldn't be as motivated and I wouldn't be as successful.
如果我沒經歷過那件事，我可能不會那麼有動力，也不會那麼成功。

3375
03:03:23,060 --> 03:03:24,500
So it's all fine.
所以一切都好。

3376
03:03:24,500 --> 03:03:27,300
But it was definitely a very strong motivator.
但那絕對是一個非常強大的動力。

3377
03:03:27,300 --> 03:03:29,100
In that sense, envy can be useful.
從那層意義上說，嫉妒是有用的。

3378
03:03:29,100 --> 03:03:32,940
Envy can also eat you alive if you let it follow you your entire life.
如果你讓嫉妒跟隨你一輩子，它也會把你活活吞噬。

3379
03:03:32,940 --> 03:03:37,000
But there are points in your life where it can be a very powerful booster rocket.
但人生中有些時刻，它能成為一股非常強大的助推火箭。

3380
03:03:37,000 --> 03:03:43,460
We spoke earlier about picking a business model that has leverage from scale economies,
我們稍早談到選擇具有規模經濟槓桿的商業模式、

3381
03:03:43,460 --> 03:03:47,260
network effects, zero marginal cost of replication.
網絡效應、零邊際複製成本。

3382
03:03:47,260 --> 03:03:51,260
There were a few other ideas on the cutting room floor that I want to go through with
編輯室裡還有一些其他的想法，我想和你一起

3383
03:03:51,260 --> 03:03:52,260
you.
討論。

3384
03:03:52,260 --> 03:03:55,200
The first one was the principal agent problem.
第一個是委託代理問題。

3385
03:03:55,200 --> 03:03:57,420
So mental models are all the rage.
所以心智模型現在很流行。

3386
03:03:57,420 --> 03:04:01,020
Everyone's trying to become smarter by adopting mental models.
每個人都想透過採用心智模型變得更聰明。

3387
03:04:01,020 --> 03:04:04,660
I think mental models are interesting, but I don't think explicitly in terms of a mental
我認為心智模型很有趣，但我不會明確地用一套心智

3388
03:04:04,660 --> 03:04:05,660
model checklist.
模型清單來思考。

3389
03:04:05,660 --> 03:04:07,980
I know Charlie Munger does, but that's just not how I think.
我知道查理·蒙格會，但那不是我的思考方式。

3390
03:04:07,980 --> 03:04:12,260
Instead, I tend to focus on the few lessons that I've learned in life over and over that
相反地，我傾向於專注於我人生中反覆學到的幾個教訓，

3391
03:04:12,260 --> 03:04:16,240
I think are incredibly important and seem to apply almost universally.
我認為它們極其重要，而且似乎幾乎普遍適用。

3392
03:04:16,240 --> 03:04:21,060
One that keeps coming up from microeconomics, because as we've established macroeconomics
其中一個不斷出現在微觀經濟學中的，因為我們已經確立了宏觀經濟學

3393
03:04:21,060 --> 03:04:26,420
is not really worth spending time on, is what's called the principal agent problem.
其實不值得花時間去研究，就是所謂的委託代理問題。

3394
03:04:26,420 --> 03:04:29,820
Principle in this case is principal with a P-A-L, not P-L-E.
這裡的Principle是P-A-L的principal，不是P-L-E。

3395
03:04:29,820 --> 03:04:32,000
So it's not a principal that you follow.
所以這不是你遵循的原則。

3396
03:04:32,000 --> 03:04:33,700
It's a principal who is a person.
這是一個身為人的委託人。

3397
03:04:33,700 --> 03:04:35,500
A principal is an owner.
委託人就是所有者。

3398
03:04:35,500 --> 03:04:38,400
An agent is the person who works for the owner.
代理人是為所有者工作的人。

3399
03:04:38,400 --> 03:04:42,460
So you can think of it as an employee, the difference between a founder and employee.
所以你可以把它想成是員工，創辦人和員工之間的區別。

3400
03:04:42,460 --> 03:04:47,580
I can summarize this by a famous quote that either was said by Napoleon or by Julius Caesar.
我可以用一句拿破崙或凱撒大帝說過的名言來總結。

3401
03:04:47,580 --> 03:04:50,120
It's generally attributed to either one.
通常都歸於他們其中一人。

3402
03:04:50,120 --> 03:04:54,000
But he said, "If you want it done, then go.
但他說：「如果你想把事情做好，就自己去。

3403
03:04:54,000 --> 03:04:56,440
If not, then send."
如果不想，就派人去。」

3404
03:04:56,440 --> 03:04:59,900
Which is saying if you want to do something right, do it yourself, because other people
也就是說，如果你想把事情做好，就自己動手，因為其他人

3405
03:04:59,900 --> 03:05:01,540
just don't care enough.
根本不在乎。

3406
03:05:01,540 --> 03:05:04,700
Now the principal agent problem pops up everywhere.
現在委託代理問題無處不在。

3407
03:05:04,700 --> 03:05:10,320
In microeconomics, the way that they try to characterize it is that the principal's incentives
在微觀經濟學中，他們試圖這樣描述：委託人的誘因

3408
03:05:10,320 --> 03:05:12,900
are different than the agent's incentives.
與代理人的誘因不同。

3409
03:05:12,900 --> 03:05:16,520
So the owner of the business wants what is best for the business and will make the most
所以企業主想要對企業最好的，並且能賺到最多

3410
03:05:16,520 --> 03:05:17,520
money.
錢。

3411
03:05:17,520 --> 03:05:22,240
The agent generally wants whatever will look good to the principal or might make them the
代理人通常想要任何能讓委託人看起來好的東西，或者可能讓他們在

3412
03:05:22,240 --> 03:05:25,980
most friends in the neighborhood or in the business or might make them personally the
社區或公司裡交到最多朋友，或者可能讓他們個人得到最多

3413
03:05:25,980 --> 03:05:27,180
most money.
錢。

3414
03:05:27,180 --> 03:05:31,800
You see this a lot with hired gun CEOs running public companies where the ownership of the
你常在上市公司聘請的CEO身上看到這種情況，公司的所有權

3415
03:05:31,800 --> 03:05:36,740
public company is distributed so widely that there's no principal remaining.
分散得太廣，以至於沒有任何主要持股人。

3416
03:05:36,740 --> 03:05:41,620
So nobody owns more than 1% of the company, the CEO takes charge, stuffs the board with
所以沒有人擁有超過1%的公司股份，執行長掌權，把董事會塞滿

3417
03:05:41,620 --> 03:05:45,620
their buddies, and then starts issuing themselves low price stock options or doing a lot of
他的親信，然後開始給自己發放低價股票期權，或者進行大量

3418
03:05:45,620 --> 03:05:50,520
stock buybacks because their compensation is based directly tied to the stock price.
股票回購，因為他們的薪酬直接與股價掛鉤。

3419
03:05:50,520 --> 03:05:53,860
So agents have a way of hacking systems.
所以代理人有辦法鑽系統的漏洞。

3420
03:05:53,860 --> 03:05:56,620
This is what make incentive design so difficult.
這就是為什麼誘因設計如此困難。

3421
03:05:56,620 --> 03:06:01,720
As Charlie Munger says, "If you can be working on incentives, don't work on anything else."
正如查理·蒙格所說：「如果你能專注於誘因，就不要做其他任何事。」

3422
03:06:01,720 --> 03:06:04,420
Almost all human behavior can be explained by incentives.
幾乎所有人類行為都可以用誘因來解釋。

3423
03:06:04,420 --> 03:06:09,400
The study of signaling and signals is seeing what people do despite what they say.
研究信號和信號就是看人們做了什麼，而不是說了什麼。

3424
03:06:09,400 --> 03:06:12,520
People are much more honest with their actions than they are with their words.
人們的行動遠比他們的話語誠實。

3425
03:06:12,520 --> 03:06:16,400
You have to get the incentives right to get people to behave correctly.
你必須把誘因設對，才能讓人們行為正確。

3426
03:06:16,400 --> 03:06:20,800
It's a very, very difficult problem because the good people aren't purely coin operated.
這是一個非常非常困難的問題，因為好人並非純粹被金錢驅動。

3427
03:06:20,800 --> 03:06:22,000
They're not just looking for money.
他們不只是在尋找金錢。

3428
03:06:22,000 --> 03:06:26,420
They're also looking for other things like status or meaning in what they do.
他們也在尋找其他東西，比如他們所做之事的地位或意義。

3429
03:06:26,420 --> 03:06:30,960
Principal agent problem is the one that as a business owner, you're always going to be
委託代理問題是，作為一個企業主，你將永遠

3430
03:06:30,960 --> 03:06:34,540
trying to figure out how do I make this person think like me?
試圖弄清楚如何讓這個人像我一樣思考？

3431
03:06:34,540 --> 03:06:36,180
How do I incent them?
我該如何激勵他們？

3432
03:06:36,180 --> 03:06:38,300
How do I give them founder mentality?
我如何給予他們創業者心態？

3433
03:06:38,300 --> 03:06:42,480
And I think you have to truly have been a founder to fully appreciate how important
而且我認為你必須真正當過創辦人，才能完全體會到這種

3434
03:06:42,480 --> 03:06:47,000
this founder mentality thing is and what a difficult and gnarly problem the principal
創業者心態有多重要，以及委託人

3435
03:06:47,000 --> 03:06:48,580
agent problem is.
代理問題是多麼棘手。

3436
03:06:48,580 --> 03:06:54,060
What I would say to you is if you are a principal, you essentially want to spend a lot of your
我想對你說的是，如果你是委託人，你基本上會想花很多

3437
03:06:54,060 --> 03:06:55,980
time thinking about this problem.
時間思考這個問題。

3438
03:06:55,980 --> 03:06:59,960
What that means is you want to take your top lieutenants and you want to be very generous
那意味著，你應該對你的高級副手們非常慷慨，

3439
03:06:59,960 --> 03:07:04,700
with them in terms of ownership and incentives, even if they don't necessarily realize it.
在所有權和誘因方面對他們慷慨，即使他們不一定意識到。

3440
03:07:04,700 --> 03:07:09,820
Because over time they will and you want them to be aligned with you in how they operate.
因為久而久之他們會意識到，而且你希望他們在運作上與你保持一致。

3441
03:07:09,820 --> 03:07:14,260
When you do business deals, it's better to have an aligned partnership where you both
當你做生意時，最好有一個目標一致的夥伴關係，你們雙方

3442
03:07:14,260 --> 03:07:19,520
have the same incentives than a partnership where you got the advantage in the deal.
都有相同的誘因，而不是一個你在交易中佔了便宜的夥伴關係。

3443
03:07:19,520 --> 03:07:23,840
You negotiate in such a way that you've got the better end of the transaction because
你以這樣的方式談判，使得你在交易中佔了上風，因為

3444
03:07:23,840 --> 03:07:28,040
eventually the other person will figure it out or they'll be misaligned and the partnership
最終對方會發現，或者他們會目標不一致，夥伴關係

3445
03:07:28,040 --> 03:07:29,380
will fall apart.
也會破裂。

3446
03:07:29,380 --> 03:07:33,160
Either way, it's not going to be one of those things that you can invest into with the benefits
無論哪種方式，這都不會是你能投資並享受

3447
03:07:33,160 --> 03:07:35,420
of compound interest over decades.
數十年複利效益的事情。

3448
03:07:35,420 --> 03:07:39,820
Finally, if you're in a current role where you're an agent, you're an employee, your
最後，如果你現在的角色是代理人，是員工，你的

3449
03:07:39,820 --> 03:07:42,840
most important job is to think like a principal.
最重要的工作是像委託人一樣思考。

3450
03:07:42,840 --> 03:07:47,460
The more you can think like a principal, the better off you're going to be long term because
你越能像委託人一樣思考，長期來看對你越好，因為

3451
03:07:47,460 --> 03:07:52,280
it's training you how to be a principal long term and eventually you will become a principal.
這是在訓練你如何長期成為委託人，最終你也會成為委託人。

3452
03:07:52,280 --> 03:07:57,720
It's also going to align you with the principal and a good principal will then promote you
這也會讓你與委託人目標一致，而一個好的委託人會提拔你

3453
03:07:57,720 --> 03:08:03,460
or empower you or give you accountability or leverage way out of proportion to what might
或賦予你權力，或給你遠超你可能

3454
03:08:03,460 --> 03:08:04,860
be your menial role.
卑微角色的責任或槓桿。

3455
03:08:04,860 --> 03:08:09,300
I'm always very impressed by founders who will promote up very, very young people through
我總是對那些提拔非常年輕的人晉升的創辦人

3456
03:08:09,300 --> 03:08:13,680
their ranks, having them skip multiple levels despite their experience.
印象深刻，讓他們跳過多個級別，儘管他們的經驗不足。

3457
03:08:13,680 --> 03:08:19,760
And invariably it happens because this agent who's way deep down thinks like a principal.
這總是發生，因為這位深層的代理人像委託人一樣思考。

3458
03:08:19,760 --> 03:08:24,300
So if you can hack your way through the principal agent problem, you've probably solved half
所以，如果你能破解委託代理問題，你可能已經解決了

3459
03:08:24,300 --> 03:08:26,420
of what it takes to run a company.
經營公司一半的難題。

3460
03:08:26,420 --> 03:08:31,220
The reason I asked about this one first is because I feel like I personally never see
我先問這個問題的原因是，我覺得我個人從未看到

3461
03:08:31,220 --> 03:08:34,580
the principal agent problem in my work.
在我的工作中看到委託代理問題。

3462
03:08:34,580 --> 03:08:42,820
I tend to work in small teams where everybody is highly economically aligned and the people
我傾向於在小型團隊工作，那裡的每個人在經濟上都高度一致，而且人們

3463
03:08:42,820 --> 03:08:49,840
have been filtered for a commitment to the mission and everybody else who doesn't work
都經過篩選，對使命有承諾，其他不適合的人

3464
03:08:49,840 --> 03:08:53,640
out moves on to another role elsewhere.
就會轉到其他地方擔任另一個角色。

3465
03:08:53,640 --> 03:08:57,820
These are all heuristics that you have designed to avoid having to deal with the single biggest
這些都是你設計的啟發式方法，以避免處理單一最大的

3466
03:08:57,820 --> 03:08:59,880
problem in management.
管理問題。

3467
03:08:59,880 --> 03:09:03,640
Another example of a heuristic you can have that helps you route around the principal
另一個可以幫助你繞過委託人

3468
03:09:03,640 --> 03:09:07,560
agent problem is to deal with the smallest firms possible.
代理問題的啟發式方法，是盡可能與最小的公司打交道。

3469
03:09:07,560 --> 03:09:13,080
So for example, when I'm hiring a lawyer or a banker or even accountant to work on my
例如，當我雇用律師、銀行家甚至會計師來處理我的

3470
03:09:13,080 --> 03:09:18,180
deals, one of the things that I've become very cognizant about is the bigger firms,
交易時，我非常意識到的一件事是，越大的公司，

3471
03:09:18,180 --> 03:09:20,460
all other things equal are generally worse.
其他條件相同的情況下，通常更差。

3472
03:09:20,460 --> 03:09:24,240
Yes, they have more experience, yes, they have more people, yes, they have a bigger
是的，他們有更多經驗，是的，他們有更多人，是的，他們有更大的

3473
03:09:24,240 --> 03:09:30,920
brand but what you'll find is that the principal and the agent are highly separated.
品牌，但你會發現委託人和代理人是高度分離的。

3474
03:09:30,920 --> 03:09:35,240
And very often the principal will sell you and convince you to work with a firm but then
而且很常委託人會說服你與一家公司合作，但接著

3475
03:09:35,240 --> 03:09:40,080
all the work will be done by an agent who simply doesn't care as much and you can end
所有的工作都會由一個根本不在乎的代理人完成，你最終可能會

3476
03:09:40,080 --> 03:09:42,260
up getting substandard service.
得到不合標準的服務。

3477
03:09:42,260 --> 03:09:47,560
So I prefer to work with boutiques and my ideal law firm to work with is a law firm
所以我更喜歡與精品店合作，我理想的法律事務所是

3478
03:09:47,560 --> 03:09:48,560
of one.
只有一人的事務所。

3479
03:09:48,560 --> 03:09:51,960
My ideal banker to work with is a solo banker.
我理想的銀行家是獨立銀行家。

3480
03:09:51,960 --> 03:09:56,680
Now you're making other sacrifices and trade-offs in terms of that person's resources and you
現在你在那個人資源方面做出了其他犧牲和權衡，而你

3481
03:09:56,680 --> 03:10:00,440
are betting big on that person but you've got one throat to choke, there's no one else
正把大賭注押在那個人身上，但你只有一個喉嚨可以掐，沒有別人

3482
03:10:00,440 --> 03:10:05,100
to point fingers to, there's nowhere to run, the accountability is extremely high.
可以指責，無處可逃，責任極高。

3483
03:10:05,100 --> 03:10:11,080
If you're an agent, the best way to operate is just say what would the founder do?
如果你是代理人，最好的運作方式就是說，創辦人會怎麼做？

3484
03:10:11,080 --> 03:10:16,600
If you think like the owner and you act like the owner, it's only a matter of time until
如果你像所有者一樣思考，像所有者一樣行動，成為所有者

3485
03:10:16,600 --> 03:10:19,000
you become the owner.
只是時間問題。

3486
03:10:19,000 --> 03:10:22,800
Let's chat about the Kelly Criterion.
我們來聊聊凱利準則。

3487
03:10:22,800 --> 03:10:29,280
The Kelly Criterion is a very popularized mathematical formulation of a simple concept
凱利準則是一個非常普及的數學公式，它闡述了一個簡單的概念

3488
03:10:29,280 --> 03:10:32,800
and the simple concept is don't risk everything.
而這個簡單的概念是，不要冒險全部。

3489
03:10:32,800 --> 03:10:37,680
Stay out of jail, don't bet everything on one big gamble, just be very careful how much
遠離監獄，不要把所有東西都押在一場豪賭上，每次下注時都要非常小心

3490
03:10:37,680 --> 03:10:40,560
you bet each time so you don't lose the whole kitty.
，這樣你才不會輸掉全部的本錢。

3491
03:10:40,560 --> 03:10:45,320
The Kelly Criterion mathematically formulates if you're a gambler even when you have an
凱利準則用數學公式說明，如果你是個賭徒，即使你有

3492
03:10:45,320 --> 03:10:49,440
edge, how much should you gamble per hand because even when you have an edge you can
優勢，每手牌應該下注多少，因為即使你有優勢，你仍然

3493
03:10:49,440 --> 03:10:50,580
still lose.
可能輸。

3494
03:10:50,580 --> 03:10:55,560
So let's say you have 51.49 edge, every gambler knows not to bet the whole kitty on that 51.49
所以，假設你有 51.49 的優勢，每個賭徒都知道不要把所有本金押在那 51.49

3495
03:10:55,560 --> 03:10:59,280
edge because you could just lose everything and you don't get to come back to the average.
的優勢上，因為你可能會輸掉一切，而且你無法回到平均值。

3496
03:10:59,280 --> 03:11:05,000
Nassim Taleb famously talks about ergodicity which is a fancy word for the simple concept
納西姆·塔雷伯曾著名地談論過遍歷性，這是一個花俏的詞，用來描述一個簡單的概念

3497
03:11:05,000 --> 03:11:11,320
that what is true for 100 people on average isn't the same as one person averaging that
即對100個人的平均情況是真實的，並不等於一個人將同樣的事情平均

3498
03:11:11,320 --> 03:11:13,120
same thing 100 times.
100次。

3499
03:11:13,120 --> 03:11:16,440
The easiest way to see that is by playing Russian roulette.
最簡單的理解方式就是玩俄羅斯輪盤。

3500
03:11:16,440 --> 03:11:21,820
Six people who play Russian roulette once each and then each winner gets a billion dollars,
六個人各玩一次俄羅斯輪盤，然後每個贏家得到十億美元，

3501
03:11:21,820 --> 03:11:25,880
one person ends up dead, five people have a billion dollars versus one person who plays
一個人死了，五個人有十億美元，對比一個人玩

3502
03:11:25,880 --> 03:11:29,840
Russian roulette with the same one gun six times is never going to end up a billion or
同樣一把槍玩六次俄羅斯輪盤，永遠不會得到十億，或者

3503
03:11:29,840 --> 03:11:31,600
is going to end up worth zero.
最終會一文不值。

3504
03:11:31,600 --> 03:11:36,480
And so risk taking, especially when the averages are calculated across large populations is
因此，承擔風險，尤其是當平均值是基於大群體計算時，

3505
03:11:36,480 --> 03:11:38,160
not always rational.
並不總是理性的。

3506
03:11:38,160 --> 03:11:41,400
The Kelly Criterion helps you avoid ruin.
凱利準則幫助你避免破產。

3507
03:11:41,400 --> 03:11:47,320
The number one way in which people get ruined in modern business is not by betting too much
在現代商業中，人們破產的首要方式並非下注過多，

3508
03:11:47,320 --> 03:11:52,360
but it's by cutting corners and doing unethical things or downright illegal things.
而是偷工減料、做不道德或完全非法的事情。

3509
03:11:52,360 --> 03:11:56,840
Ending up in an orange jumpsuit in prison or having a reputation ruined is the same as
最終穿著橘色囚服進監獄，或名譽掃地，就等於

3510
03:11:56,840 --> 03:11:58,200
getting wiped to zero.
被清零。

3511
03:11:58,200 --> 03:12:00,800
So never do those things.
所以絕對不要做那些事。

3512
03:12:00,800 --> 03:12:02,440
Let's talk about the Schelling point.
我們來談談謝林點。

3513
03:12:02,440 --> 03:12:06,840
It's a game theory concept made famous by Thomas Schelling in the book called Strategy
這是托馬斯·謝林在他的著作《衝突的策略》中

3514
03:12:06,840 --> 03:12:09,160
of Conflict which I do recommend reading.
提出的博弈論概念，我強烈推薦閱讀。

3515
03:12:09,160 --> 03:12:14,000
It's about multiplayer games where other people are responding based on what they think your
這是關於多人遊戲的，遊戲中其他人會根據他們認為你的

3516
03:12:14,000 --> 03:12:15,360
response is.
反應來做出反應。

3517
03:12:15,360 --> 03:12:20,040
What he came up with was the mathematical formalization of how do you get people who
他提出的，是關於如何讓

3518
03:12:20,040 --> 03:12:23,460
cannot communicate with each other to coordinate?
無法互相溝通的人們協調的數學形式化。

3519
03:12:23,460 --> 03:12:28,320
Suppose that I want to meet with you but I don't tell you where and I don't tell you
假設我想和你見面，但我沒告訴你在哪裡，也沒告訴你

3520
03:12:28,320 --> 03:12:29,320
when.
時間。

3521
03:12:29,320 --> 03:12:33,000
We both want to meet but we cannot communicate any more information to each other.
我們都想見面，但我們無法再向對方傳達任何資訊。

3522
03:12:33,000 --> 03:12:35,240
That would sound like an impossible problem to solve.
那聽起來像個無法解決的問題。

3523
03:12:35,240 --> 03:12:36,240
We're done.
我們完了。

3524
03:12:36,240 --> 03:12:37,240
We can't do it.
我們做不到。

3525
03:12:37,240 --> 03:12:38,240
Not quite.
不完全是。

3526
03:12:38,240 --> 03:12:41,680
But if we know that you're a rational person and smart and educated and you know I'm a
但如果我們知道你是個理性、聰明、受過教育的人，而你也知道我是個

3527
03:12:41,680 --> 03:12:44,560
rational person who's smart, we're going to start thinking.
聰明的理性人，我們就會開始思考。

3528
03:12:44,560 --> 03:12:48,480
If we have to pick an arbitrary date, we're probably going to pick New Year's.
如果我們必須選擇一個任意的日期，我們可能會選新年。

3529
03:12:48,480 --> 03:12:49,480
And what time?
什麼時間？

3530
03:12:49,480 --> 03:12:51,600
Midnight or 12.01 AM.
午夜或凌晨12點01分。

3531
03:12:51,600 --> 03:12:52,780
And where would we meet?
我們在哪裡見面？

3532
03:12:52,780 --> 03:12:53,780
What is the big meeting point?
主要的會面點在哪裡？

3533
03:12:53,780 --> 03:12:56,320
Well, if we're Americans, it's probably in New York City.
嗯，如果我們是美國人，那大概在紐約市。

3534
03:12:56,320 --> 03:12:58,020
It's the most important city.
這是最重要的城市。

3535
03:12:58,020 --> 03:13:00,680
And where in New York City would we meet at midnight?
那我們會在紐約市的哪裡午夜會面？

3536
03:13:00,680 --> 03:13:04,040
Probably Grand Central Station under the clock.
大概在中央車站的時鐘下。

3537
03:13:04,040 --> 03:13:06,880
Maybe you end up at the Empire State Building but not likely.
你可能最後去了帝國大廈，但不太可能。

3538
03:13:06,880 --> 03:13:10,360
We can just use social norms to converge onto a shelling point.
我們可以利用社會規範來匯集到一個謝林點。

3539
03:13:10,360 --> 03:13:14,560
There are many times in many games where you can look at the game itself, whether it's
在許多遊戲中，有很多時候你可以觀察遊戲本身，無論是

3540
03:13:14,560 --> 03:13:19,560
business or art or politics, and you can find the convergent shelling point within the context
商業、藝術或政治，你都可以在遊戲的情境中

3541
03:13:19,560 --> 03:13:20,640
of that game.
找到收斂的謝林點。

3542
03:13:20,640 --> 03:13:22,840
You can cooperate with the other person.
你可以與對方合作。

3543
03:13:22,840 --> 03:13:24,340
Here's a simple example.
這是一個簡單的例子。

3544
03:13:24,340 --> 03:13:27,400
Let's suppose that you have two companies that are competing heavily with each other
假設有兩家公司相互競爭激烈

3545
03:13:27,400 --> 03:13:29,280
and they hold an oligopoly.
並且形成寡佔。

3546
03:13:29,280 --> 03:13:33,280
Let's say that they're competing right now and the price fluctuates between 8 bucks and
假設他們現在正在競爭，價格在 8 元到

3547
03:13:33,280 --> 03:13:35,400
12 bucks for whatever the service is.
12 元之間波動。

3548
03:13:35,400 --> 03:13:40,040
You won't be surprised if they both converge on 10 bucks without ever talking to each other.
如果他們在從未交談的情況下，都將價格定在 10 元，你不會感到驚訝。

3549
03:13:40,040 --> 03:13:43,520
Do you want to talk about Pareto Optimal?
你想談談柏拉圖最適嗎？

3550
03:13:43,520 --> 03:13:47,760
Pareto Optimal is another concept from game theory along with Pareto Superior.
柏拉圖最適是另一個來自博弈論的概念，與柏拉圖優越並列。

3551
03:13:47,760 --> 03:13:54,200
Pareto Superior means that something is better in some ways while being equal or better in
柏拉圖優越指的是，某件事在某些方面更好，而在

3552
03:13:54,200 --> 03:13:55,200
the other ways.
其他方面相等或更好。

3553
03:13:55,200 --> 03:13:56,960
It's not worse off in any way.
在任何方面都沒有變差。

3554
03:13:56,960 --> 03:14:00,680
This is an important concept when you're negotiating with somebody.
當你和某人談判時，這是一個重要的概念。

3555
03:14:00,680 --> 03:14:06,240
If you can make a solution Pareto Superior to where it was before, you will always do
如果你能讓解決方案比之前更好，你總會

3556
03:14:06,240 --> 03:14:07,240
that.
這麼做。

3557
03:14:07,240 --> 03:14:11,720
Pareto Optimal is when the solution is the best that it can possibly be, then you can't
柏拉圖最適是指，當解決方案是最佳狀態時，你無法

3558
03:14:11,720 --> 03:14:15,500
change it without making it worse in at least one dimension.
在不使其至少在一個維度上變差的情況下改變它。

3559
03:14:15,500 --> 03:14:18,080
There is a hard trade off from this point forward.
從現在開始，存在一個艱難的權衡。

3560
03:14:18,080 --> 03:14:22,640
These are important concepts to understand when you're involved in a big negotiation.
當你參與大型談判時，這些是需要理解的重要概念。

3561
03:14:22,640 --> 03:14:26,400
In negotiation though, I would generally say that this is a tweet that I have, "negotiations
但在談判中，我通常會說，我有一則推文是，「談判

3562
03:14:26,400 --> 03:14:29,600
are won by whoever cares less."
是由誰在乎得少來決定輸贏的。」

3563
03:14:29,600 --> 03:14:33,240
Negotiation at the end of the day is about not wanting it too badly.
談判到頭來，就是不要太想要。

3564
03:14:33,240 --> 03:14:37,360
If you want something too badly, then the other person will be able to extract more
如果你太想要某樣東西，那麼對方就能從中

3565
03:14:37,360 --> 03:14:38,680
price from it.
榨取更多價值。

3566
03:14:38,680 --> 03:14:43,040
If you do care more about something than the other person and they are taking advantage
如果你比對方更在乎某件事，而他們正在利用你

3567
03:14:43,040 --> 03:14:48,960
of you in a negotiation, then your best way to deal with that is to turn it from a short-term
這一點，那麼你最好的處理方式就是將其從短期

3568
03:14:48,960 --> 03:14:50,960
game into a long-term game.
遊戲轉變為長期遊戲。

3569
03:14:50,960 --> 03:14:52,960
Try to make it into a repeat game.
試著把它變成重複遊戲。

3570
03:14:52,960 --> 03:14:54,720
Try to bring reputation into line.
試著把聲譽拉進來。

3571
03:14:54,720 --> 03:14:59,080
Try to bring other people in who may have a say in the future or may want to play games
試著把未來可能會有發言權，或想跟這個人

3572
03:14:59,080 --> 03:15:00,800
with this person in the future.
玩遊戲的其他人帶進來。

3573
03:15:00,800 --> 03:15:09,000
An example of a very high cost, low information, single move game is having your house renovated.
一個成本非常高、資訊很少、單次行動的遊戲例子是，整修你的房子。

3574
03:15:09,000 --> 03:15:12,880
Contractors are notorious for overbooking, ripping people off, being unaccountable.
承包商以超額預訂、敲詐、不負責任而聞名。

3575
03:15:12,880 --> 03:15:14,800
I'm sure contractors have their own side of it.
我確定承包商有他們自己的說法。

3576
03:15:14,800 --> 03:15:17,000
The homeowner has unreasonable demands.
屋主有不合理的要求。

3577
03:15:17,000 --> 03:15:18,000
We found problems.
我們發現了問題。

3578
03:15:18,000 --> 03:15:19,200
The homeowner doesn't want to pay for it.
屋主不想為此付錢。

3579
03:15:19,200 --> 03:15:20,200
They don't understand.
他們不明白。

3580
03:15:20,200 --> 03:15:21,800
They're low information buyers.
他們是資訊不足的買家。

3581
03:15:21,800 --> 03:15:23,400
It's a very expensive transaction.
這是一筆非常昂貴的交易。

3582
03:15:23,400 --> 03:15:27,720
Historically, it's been very hard to find good contractors and the contractor has no
歷史上，要找到好的承包商一直很難，而承包商也無法

3583
03:15:27,720 --> 03:15:29,800
choice on what a good homeowner is.
選擇好的屋主。

3584
03:15:29,800 --> 03:15:31,140
You try to go through friends.
你試著透過朋友介紹。

3585
03:15:31,140 --> 03:15:33,000
You try to go through reputation.
你試著透過聲譽去找。

3586
03:15:33,000 --> 03:15:36,800
And what you're basically doing there is you're trying to convert a single move expensive
而你基本上在那裡做的，是試圖將一個單次行動、昂貴

3587
03:15:36,800 --> 03:15:42,540
game with a high probability of cheating on both sides into a multi-move game.
且雙方極有可能作弊的遊戲，轉變為一個多次行動的遊戲。

3588
03:15:42,540 --> 03:15:46,520
One way to do that, say, well, actually, I need two different projects done.
一個方法是說，其實我需要完成兩個不同的專案。

3589
03:15:46,520 --> 03:15:48,640
So the first project we'll do together.
所以第一個專案我們會一起做。

3590
03:15:48,640 --> 03:15:51,640
And then based on that, I'll decide if we do the second project.
然後基於此，我會決定我們是否做第二個專案。

3591
03:15:51,640 --> 03:15:54,420
You can split your work up into two projects.
你可以把你的工作分成兩個專案。

3592
03:15:54,420 --> 03:15:56,840
Another way might be I'm going to do this project with you.
另一個方法可能是，我會和你一起做這個專案。

3593
03:15:56,840 --> 03:15:59,800
And then I have three friends who want projects done and they're waiting to see the outcome
然後我有三個朋友也想做專案，他們在等著看這些專案的

3594
03:15:59,800 --> 03:16:01,320
of these projects.
結果。

3595
03:16:01,320 --> 03:16:05,840
Another one might be the same person operating within the same community and having a reputation
另一個可能是，同一個人在同一個社區內運作，並且有

3596
03:16:05,840 --> 03:16:07,960
in the community to protect.
社區聲譽需要維護。

3597
03:16:07,960 --> 03:16:11,360
Another one could be you write them a Yelp review or a Thumbtack review.
另一個可以是你在Yelp或Thumbtack上寫評論。

3598
03:16:11,360 --> 03:16:16,080
These are all ways of turning a single move game into a longer term game and helping get
這些都是將單次博弈轉變為長期博弈的方法，有助於

3599
03:16:16,080 --> 03:16:21,040
past a position of poor negotiating leverage and poor information.
克服談判籌碼不足和資訊不足的困境。

3600
03:16:21,040 --> 03:16:26,080
We talked about compounding and compounding interest, but we didn't really dig into it
我們談到了複利和複利，但我們沒有真正深入探討

3601
03:16:26,080 --> 03:16:27,080
that much.
那麼多。

3602
03:16:27,080 --> 03:16:30,280
Relationships are a good example of compound interest.
關係是複利的一個好例子。

3603
03:16:30,280 --> 03:16:33,540
Once you've been in a good relationship with somebody for a while, whether it's business
一旦你和某人有了一段時間的良好關係，無論是商業

3604
03:16:33,540 --> 03:16:38,360
or it's romantic, life gets a lot easier because you know that person's got your back.
還是浪漫關係，生活會變得輕鬆很多，因為你知道那個人會支持你。

3605
03:16:38,360 --> 03:16:39,920
You don't have to keep questioning.
你不需要一直質疑。

3606
03:16:39,920 --> 03:16:43,640
If I'm doing a deal with someone that I've dealt with for 20 years and I trust them and
如果我和一個我已經打交道20年的人做生意，我信任他們，

3607
03:16:43,640 --> 03:16:46,440
they trust me, we don't have to read the legal contracts.
他們也信任我，我們就不需要看法律合約。

3608
03:16:46,440 --> 03:16:48,560
Maybe we don't even need to create legal contracts.
也許我們甚至不需要創建法律合約。

3609
03:16:48,560 --> 03:16:51,200
Maybe we can actually do it on handshakes.
也許我們真的可以靠握手就成交。

3610
03:16:51,200 --> 03:16:54,740
That kind of trust makes it very, very easy to do business.
那種信任讓做生意變得非常非常容易。

3611
03:16:54,740 --> 03:16:58,760
If Nivea and I start another company, I know that if things aren't working out, we're both
如果我和Nivea再開一家公司，我知道如果事情不順利，我們都會

3612
03:16:58,760 --> 03:17:03,760
going to be extremely reasonable about how to go about it, how to exit out of it, how
非常理性地處理如何進行、如何退出、如何

3613
03:17:03,760 --> 03:17:07,280
to shut it down, or even if we're scaling it, how to bring in new people.
關閉它，或者即使我們在擴大規模，如何引進新人。

3614
03:17:07,280 --> 03:17:12,160
At this point, we have mutual trust and that allows us to start businesses more easily
在這一點上，我們有相互信任，這讓我們能更輕易地創業，

3615
03:17:12,160 --> 03:17:14,760
and almost compounds the effect.
幾乎產生了複利效應。

3616
03:17:14,760 --> 03:17:17,920
Especially when you're dealing with something like a startup, which is so difficult to pull
尤其是當你處理像新創公司這樣難以

3617
03:17:17,920 --> 03:17:23,480
off, removing these frictional mechanisms can actually often be the difference between success
成功的事業時，移除這些摩擦機制實際上常常是成功

3618
03:17:23,480 --> 03:17:24,480
and failure.
與失敗的區別。

3619
03:17:24,480 --> 03:17:30,320
I think the number one most under-recognized reason startups fail is because the founders
我認為新創公司失敗最被低估的第一大原因是創辦人

3620
03:17:30,320 --> 03:17:31,320
fall apart.
鬧翻了。

3621
03:17:31,320 --> 03:17:35,440
There are a couple of non-intuitive things about compounding.
關於複利，有幾件不那麼直觀的事情。

3622
03:17:35,440 --> 03:17:42,320
The first one is that most of the benefits of compounding comes at the end of the compounding.
第一點是，複利的大部分好處都來自複利的後期。

3623
03:17:42,320 --> 03:17:46,000
You may not necessarily see the huge benefits of it upfront.
你可能不會立刻看到它巨大的好處。

3624
03:17:46,000 --> 03:17:51,200
There was a good quote from an article that Sam Altman wrote where he said, "I always
山姆·奧特曼寫的一篇文章中有句很好的話，他說：「我總是

3625
03:17:51,200 --> 03:17:57,080
want it to be a project that if successful will make the rest of my career look like
希望它成為一個成功的專案，讓我的職涯其餘部分看起來像

3626
03:17:57,080 --> 03:17:58,080
a footnote."
一個註腳。」

3627
03:17:58,080 --> 03:18:02,120
Again, that just goes back to the idea that most of the benefits of compounding come at
再次，這回到了複利的大部分好處來自

3628
03:18:02,120 --> 03:18:03,320
the end.
後期的觀點。

3629
03:18:03,320 --> 03:18:08,080
The other thing that's a little non-intuitive about compounding is that I think it's better
另一個關於複利有點不直觀的事情是，我認為

3630
03:18:08,080 --> 03:18:15,520
to have a few deep compounding relationships with people instead of a large amount of non-compounding
最好與少數人建立深厚的複利關係，而不是與大量非複利

3631
03:18:15,520 --> 03:18:16,920
relationships.
關係。

3632
03:18:16,920 --> 03:18:21,160
One of the under-realized things in business is that it takes just as much effort to create
商業中一個被低估的事實是，創建一家小企業

3633
03:18:21,160 --> 03:18:24,000
a small business as it does to create a large business.
與創建一家大企業所花費的精力一樣多。

3634
03:18:24,000 --> 03:18:27,200
Whether you're Elon Musk or whether you're the guy running three Italian restaurants
無論你是伊隆·馬斯克，還是鎮上經營三家義大利餐廳的傢伙，

3635
03:18:27,200 --> 03:18:30,120
in town, you're working 80 hours a week.
你每週都工作80個小時。

3636
03:18:30,120 --> 03:18:31,280
You're sweating bullets.
你汗流浹背。

3637
03:18:31,280 --> 03:18:32,980
You're hiring and firing people.
你在招聘和解雇員工。

3638
03:18:32,980 --> 03:18:34,800
You're trying to balance the books.
你在努力平衡帳目。

3639
03:18:34,800 --> 03:18:38,360
It's highly stressful and it takes years and years of your life.
壓力很大，而且會耗費你多年的生命。

3640
03:18:38,360 --> 03:18:43,080
In one case, you get companies that are worth $50, $100 billion and the adulation of everybody.
一種情況是，你得到價值500、1000億美元的公司，以及所有人的讚賞。

3641
03:18:43,080 --> 03:18:48,320
On the other hand, you might make a little bit of money and you've got some nice restaurants.
另一方面，你可能賺了點錢，擁有一些不錯的餐廳。

3642
03:18:48,320 --> 03:18:49,320
Think big.
要有遠大的志向。

3643
03:18:49,320 --> 03:18:56,240
Are there any other microeconomic concepts outside of zero marginal cost of replication
除了零邊際複製成本和規模經濟之外，

3644
03:18:56,240 --> 03:18:59,960
and scale economies that are important for people to understand?
還有哪些重要的微觀經濟學概念需要人們了解？

3645
03:18:59,960 --> 03:19:03,000
Price discrimination is an important thing to understand.
價格歧視是需要理解的重要事情。

3646
03:19:03,000 --> 03:19:07,680
What it means is that you can charge people different things based on their propensity
那意味著，你可以根據人們的

3647
03:19:07,680 --> 03:19:08,680
to pay.
支付意願收取不同的費用。

3648
03:19:08,680 --> 03:19:12,560
Now, you're not allowed to charge different people different things just because you don't
現在，你不被允許僅僅因為你不喜歡就對不同的人收取不同的費用。

3649
03:19:12,560 --> 03:19:13,560
like them.
他們。

3650
03:19:13,560 --> 03:19:17,280
You have to offer them a little something extra, but it has to be something that rich
你必須給他們一些額外的東西，但那必須是有錢人

3651
03:19:17,280 --> 03:19:18,920
people care about.
關心的東西。

3652
03:19:18,920 --> 03:19:23,400
Those class seats will routinely cost five or 10 times what an economy class seat does,
這些艙等座位通常是經濟艙座位的五到十倍價格，

3653
03:19:23,400 --> 03:19:27,680
but it probably costs the airline just two, maybe three X to provide that.
但航空公司提供這些服務的成本可能只有兩三倍。

3654
03:19:27,680 --> 03:19:29,480
It's just the rich person is more willing to pay.
只是有錢人更願意付錢。

3655
03:19:29,480 --> 03:19:33,040
So you have to give them the little things that they need extra to either signal they're
所以你必須給他們一些額外的東西，要嘛是為了顯示他們

3656
03:19:33,040 --> 03:19:36,540
rich or that little bit of comfort that they want.
有錢，要嘛是為了他們想要的那一點點舒適。

3657
03:19:36,540 --> 03:19:40,820
Price discrimination gets used a lot in enterprise software where you have a freemium product.
價格歧視在企業軟體中很常用，你會有一個免費增值產品。

3658
03:19:40,820 --> 03:19:44,520
The free version will do almost everything, but then if you want the version that's a
免費版幾乎能做所有事，但如果你想要一個

3659
03:19:44,520 --> 03:19:49,840
little extra secure or hosted on your site or has multi-user administration so the IT
更安全、託管在你網站上、或有多用戶管理功能以便IT人員

3660
03:19:49,840 --> 03:19:54,520
person can monitor everything that's going on, you suddenly find yourself paying 10,
可以監控所有事情的版本，你會突然發現自己要支付10倍、

3661
03:19:54,520 --> 03:19:59,560
100 or infinite times as much as you go from a free product to a price product.
100倍甚至無限倍的價格，從免費產品升級到付費產品。

3662
03:19:59,560 --> 03:20:05,120
Another good concept is consumer surplus and producer surplus, which is the excess value
另一個好的概念是消費者剩餘和生產者剩餘，也就是

3663
03:20:05,120 --> 03:20:06,520
that somebody gets.
某人得到的超額價值。

3664
03:20:06,520 --> 03:20:11,200
Even though they were willing to pay more, the product was priced the same for everybody.
即使他們願意支付更多，產品的定價對每個人都一樣。

3665
03:20:11,200 --> 03:20:13,520
I get a lot of joy out of my morning coffee.
我從早晨的咖啡中得到很多快樂。

3666
03:20:13,520 --> 03:20:15,080
Obviously, I've made some money.
顯然地，我賺了些錢。

3667
03:20:15,080 --> 03:20:20,040
If my coffee costs $20, I would pay $20 for my morning coffee, but Starbucks doesn't know
如果我的咖啡要20美元，我會付20美元買我早上的咖啡，但星巴克不知道

3668
03:20:20,040 --> 03:20:21,040
that.
這點。

3669
03:20:21,040 --> 03:20:24,600
It can't price the coffee at $20 just for me because it's selling the exact same product.
它不能只對我把咖啡定價20美元，因為它賣的是完全相同的產品。

3670
03:20:24,600 --> 03:20:28,880
So I'm getting a lot of consumer surplus out of the coffee and all businesses generate
所以我從咖啡中得到很多消費者剩餘，而且所有企業都會產生

3671
03:20:28,880 --> 03:20:30,480
consumer surplus.
消費者剩餘。

3672
03:20:30,480 --> 03:20:34,640
It's a good thing to keep in mind when someone's harping about how evil companies are.
當有人喋喋不休地說公司有多邪惡時，這是一件好事，值得記住。

3673
03:20:34,640 --> 03:20:38,760
Amazon might be a trillion dollar company, but I will bet you they're generating trillions
亞馬遜可能是一家兆美元的公司，但我敢打賭他們正透過便利性和

3674
03:20:38,760 --> 03:20:42,640
of dollars in consumer surplus through convenience and willingness to pay.
支付意願產生數兆美元的消費者剩餘。

3675
03:20:42,640 --> 03:20:46,360
There are a lot of people who are willing to pay more than what Amazon charges them for
有很多人願意支付比亞馬遜向他們收取的

3676
03:20:46,360 --> 03:20:48,360
all their services.
所有服務更多的費用。

3677
03:20:48,360 --> 03:20:49,360
Let's talk about NPV.
我們來談談淨現值。

3678
03:20:49,360 --> 03:20:52,960
NPV is just the net present value of something.
淨現值就是某物的淨現值。

3679
03:20:52,960 --> 03:20:57,520
It's when you say, "That stream of payments I'm going to get in the future, what is that
就是當你說，「我未來會得到的那個付款流，

3680
03:20:57,520 --> 03:20:58,720
worth today?"
今天值多少錢？」

3681
03:20:58,720 --> 03:21:03,800
So a common example of this is you're joining a startup company and you're getting stock
一個常見的例子是，你加入一家新創公司，得到股票

3682
03:21:03,800 --> 03:21:07,720
options and the founder says, "Well, this company is going to be worth a billion dollars
期權，創辦人說：「嗯，這家公司將會值十億美元，

3683
03:21:07,720 --> 03:21:13,040
and I'm giving you 0.1% of the company, therefore you're getting a million dollars worth of
我給你公司0.1%的股份，因此你得到價值一百萬美元的

3684
03:21:13,040 --> 03:21:14,040
stock."
股票。」

3685
03:21:14,040 --> 03:21:16,320
Or she's arguing is what it's going to be worth in the future.
或者她爭論的是它未來會值多少錢。

3686
03:21:16,320 --> 03:21:18,240
You have to discount that back to today.
你必須把它折現回今天。

3687
03:21:18,240 --> 03:21:22,000
You have to figure out what is that worth today and you have to apply a discount rate
你必須算出那今天值多少錢，而且你必須應用一個折現率

3688
03:21:22,000 --> 03:21:26,040
or an interest rate that takes into account the massive risk that startups face.
或一個利率，它要考慮到新創公司面臨的巨大風險。

3689
03:21:26,040 --> 03:21:29,720
What you'll end up with is the price that it's worth today and that's the price at which
你最終得到的，是它今天的價值，也就是

3690
03:21:29,720 --> 03:21:32,380
a venture capitalist would invest in the company today.
創投家今天會投資這家公司的價格。

3691
03:21:32,380 --> 03:21:37,680
So if that founder just raised around at $10 million and that company is only worth 1%
所以，如果那個創辦人剛剛以1000萬美元的估值融資，而那家公司只值創辦人

3692
03:21:37,680 --> 03:21:43,360
of what the founder is arguing, your million dollar package is actually worth $10,000.
所爭論的1%，你的一百萬美元方案實際上只值1萬美元。

3693
03:21:43,360 --> 03:21:48,600
So NPV calculations at a very rough level, you should be very comfortable doing in your
所以，你應該能非常自在地在你的

3694
03:21:48,600 --> 03:21:50,200
head.
腦海中做非常粗略的淨現值計算。

3695
03:21:50,200 --> 03:21:52,440
What's a mispriced externality?
什麼是定價錯誤的外部性？

3696
03:21:52,440 --> 03:21:55,760
You mentioned that at some point during our podcast.
你在我們播客的某個時候提到了。

3697
03:21:55,760 --> 03:22:00,080
An externality is when there is an additional cost that is imposed by whatever product is
外部性是指，任何產品在

3698
03:22:00,080 --> 03:22:04,720
being produced or consumed that is not accounted for in the price of the product.
生產或消費時，產生了額外的成本，而這個成本沒有被計入產品的價格中。

3699
03:22:04,720 --> 03:22:08,000
Sometimes you can fix that by putting the price back into the product.
有時候你可以把價格放回產品中來解決這個問題。

3700
03:22:08,000 --> 03:22:12,660
One of the most ardent ways people attack capitalism these days is that it's destroying
最近人們攻擊資本主義最激烈的方式之一是，它正在摧毀

3701
03:22:12,660 --> 03:22:14,040
the environment.
環境。

3702
03:22:14,040 --> 03:22:17,800
And if you throw away capitalism because it's destroying the environment, then guess what?
如果你因為資本主義正在摧毀環境而拋棄它，那猜猜看會怎樣？

3703
03:22:17,800 --> 03:22:20,400
We're all headed back to pre-industrial times.
我們都將回到前工業時代。

3704
03:22:20,400 --> 03:22:21,640
It's not going to be a good thing.
這不會是好事。

3705
03:22:21,640 --> 03:22:26,240
So rather there is an externality because the environment is finite, the environment
所以，更確切地說，存在一個外部性，因為環境是有限的，環境

3706
03:22:26,240 --> 03:22:30,320
is precious and we have to price it properly and fold it back in.
是珍貴的，我們必須正確地為它定價，並將其納入成本。

3707
03:22:30,320 --> 03:22:36,000
If people are wasting water or putting hydrocarbons in the atmosphere or polluting things, you
如果人們浪費水，或向大氣排放碳氫化合物，或污染東西，你

3708
03:22:36,000 --> 03:22:40,760
want to charge them what it costs to clean up that pollution and return it to a pristine
就要向他們收取清理該污染並將其恢復到原始

3709
03:22:40,760 --> 03:22:41,760
state.
狀態的成本。

3710
03:22:41,760 --> 03:22:44,120
Perhaps that price has to be very, very, very high.
也許那個價格必須非常非常非常高。

3711
03:22:44,120 --> 03:22:47,240
If you raise that price high enough, you knock out pollution.
如果你把價格提高到足夠高，你就能消除污染。

3712
03:22:47,240 --> 03:22:51,640
It's much better than feel-good measures where we're just going to ban plastic bags and we're
這比那些只是禁止塑膠袋、說我們

3713
03:22:51,640 --> 03:22:55,320
going to say don't take showers on Saturdays and Sundays when we're having a drought.
在乾旱時週六週日不要洗澡這種自我感覺良好的措施好得多。

3714
03:22:55,320 --> 03:23:00,720
California likes to run declarations and ads to scare you into not taking showers and times
加州喜歡發布聲明和廣告，嚇唬你在乾旱時期不要

3715
03:23:00,720 --> 03:23:05,520
when there's a drought when it would be just much better to raise the price of fresh water.
洗澡，而提高淡水價格會好得多。

3716
03:23:05,520 --> 03:23:10,200
Your average consumer might pay a few pennies more for a shower, but then the almond farmers
你的普通消費者洗澡可能多花幾分錢，但那些杏仁農夫

3717
03:23:10,200 --> 03:23:15,160
who consume a lot of the water will cut back on using fresh water and almond farming may
消耗大量水的人會減少使用淡水，杏仁種植業可能會

3718
03:23:15,160 --> 03:23:18,680
move to a part of the country where water is more abundant.
轉移到水資源更豐富的地區。

3719
03:23:18,680 --> 03:23:22,520
Properly pricing externalities can save resources in a tremendous way.
正確地為外部性定價，能以巨大的方式節省資源。

3720
03:23:22,520 --> 03:23:26,840
This is a good framework to think about how to be effective when you want to do things
當你想做一些事情，例如

3721
03:23:26,840 --> 03:23:32,080
like save the environment rather than feel-good things that won't actually amount to anything.
拯救環境時，這是一個思考如何有效的好框架，而不是做一些不會有任何實際效果的自我感覺良好的事情。

3722
03:23:32,080 --> 03:23:36,960
One of the most common questions we get from people is how do I get the time to start investing
我們從人們那裡得到的最常見的問題之一是，我如何騰出時間開始投資

3723
03:23:36,960 --> 03:23:37,960
in myself?
自己？

3724
03:23:37,960 --> 03:23:38,960
I have a job.
我有工作。

3725
03:23:38,960 --> 03:23:43,040
I'll kick off the answer with one of the tweets from the cutting room floor where you
我會用你在剪輯室裡留下的一則推文來開始回答，你

3726
03:23:43,040 --> 03:23:46,640
said you will need to rent your time to get started.
說過你需要出租你的時間來開始。

3727
03:23:46,640 --> 03:23:51,160
This is only acceptable when you are learning and saving, preferably in a business where
這只有在你學習和儲蓄時才是可接受的，最好是在一個

3728
03:23:51,160 --> 03:23:56,040
society does not yet know how to train people and apprenticeship is the only model.
社會還不知道如何培訓人們，而學徒制是唯一模式的行業。

3729
03:23:56,040 --> 03:24:00,600
You're going to have to work starting out unless you happen to be born rich, in which
你必須從工作開始，除非你生來富有，在這種情況下

3730
03:24:00,600 --> 03:24:03,320
case you probably won't have the motivation to make money in the first place.
你可能根本沒有賺錢的動力。

3731
03:24:03,320 --> 03:24:07,800
If you're going to do the work, join a business where apprenticeship matters.
如果你打算工作，就加入一個學徒制很重要的行業。

3732
03:24:07,800 --> 03:24:11,760
Warren Buffett went and tried to work for Benjamin Graham straight out of school to
華倫·巴菲特一出校門就去嘗試為本傑明·格雷厄姆工作，為了

3733
03:24:11,760 --> 03:24:15,640
learn how to be a value investor and he offered to work for free and Ben Graham said you're
學習如何成為價值投資者，他提出免費工作，而本·格雷厄姆說你

3734
03:24:15,640 --> 03:24:16,640
overpriced.
太貴了。

3735
03:24:16,640 --> 03:24:22,080
It's true in that these apprenticeship businesses, you're probably making a sacrifice in terms
在這些學徒制行業中，你可能在短期內

3736
03:24:22,080 --> 03:24:24,560
of short-term career to work there.
犧牲了職涯發展才能在那裡工作。

3737
03:24:24,560 --> 03:24:30,660
But try to learn something where people haven't quite figured out how to teach it yet.
但試著學習一些人們還不太知道如何教的東西。

3738
03:24:30,660 --> 03:24:35,560
That can happen if you're working in a field that is brand new and quickly expanding, so
這可能發生在你從事一個全新且快速擴展的領域，所以

3739
03:24:35,560 --> 03:24:40,920
no one has figured it out or it's a field that's very circumstantial where the details
沒有人弄清楚，或者是一個非常依賴情境的領域，細節

3740
03:24:40,920 --> 03:24:43,960
really matter and it's always moving.
非常重要，而且總是在變動。

3741
03:24:43,960 --> 03:24:48,360
For example, fund investments or investing in general is one of those skills.
例如，基金投資或一般投資就是其中一種技能。

3742
03:24:48,360 --> 03:24:49,360
Entrepreneurship is one of those skills.
創業就是其中一種技能。

3743
03:24:49,360 --> 03:24:53,680
One of the most coveted jobs that's come up in Silicon Valley in the last half decade
過去五年來矽谷最令人嚮往的工作之一

3744
03:24:53,680 --> 03:24:58,600
or so is being a chief of staff or an entrepreneur where the brightest young kids will follow
是擔任幕僚長或企業家，最聰明的年輕人會跟隨

3745
03:24:58,600 --> 03:25:03,560
the CEO or the entrepreneur around and do whatever that person needs them to do.
執行長或企業家，做那個人需要他們做的任何事。

3746
03:25:03,560 --> 03:25:05,980
Many cases, they were overqualified for the position.
很多情況下，他們都資歷過高。

3747
03:25:05,980 --> 03:25:09,880
You may have someone who has two graduate degrees who is essentially running the CEO's
你可能會看到一個有兩個碩士學位的人，基本上在處理執行長的

3748
03:25:09,880 --> 03:25:13,600
laundry for that day because that's the most important thing that needs to be done.
當天的洗衣雜務，因為那是當天最需要完成的事情。

3749
03:25:13,600 --> 03:25:17,240
But at the same time, they're also going to be sitting in all the highest end staff meetings.
但與此同時，他們也會參加所有最高階的員工會議。

3750
03:25:17,240 --> 03:25:22,360
They're going to be privy to all the venture fundraising decks and all the stress and drama,
他們會接觸到所有創投募資的簡報、所有的壓力與戲劇性、

3751
03:25:22,360 --> 03:25:27,000
theatrics, innovation and knowledge that can only come from being next to the entrepreneur
戲劇性、創新與知識，這些都只能透過在企業家身邊

3752
03:25:27,000 --> 03:25:29,920
because the entrepreneur is willing to do anything and everything to make their company
才能獲得，因為企業家願意做任何事，竭盡所能讓他的公司

3753
03:25:29,920 --> 03:25:33,680
successful and the chief of staff is accompanying them and learning.
成功，而幕僚長則陪伴他們並學習。

3754
03:25:33,680 --> 03:25:37,600
Now obviously, this is very Silicon Valley centric tech company advice.
顯然地，這是非常以矽谷為中心的科技公司建議。

3755
03:25:37,600 --> 03:25:42,800
If you are currently stuck in a normal job and you don't have the opportunity to learn
如果你現在困在一個普通的工作中，而且你沒有機會

3756
03:25:42,800 --> 03:25:47,360
in an apprenticeship model and you need to make money, then go ahead and do that job.
以學徒模式學習，而且你需要賺錢，那就去做那份工作吧。

3757
03:25:47,360 --> 03:25:52,800
But even within the context of that job, try to be innovative, sign up to take on new challenges,
但即使在那份工作的背景下，也要試著創新，主動接受新的挑戰、

3758
03:25:52,800 --> 03:25:58,020
new responsibilities, find the part of the job that has the steepest learning curve.
新的責任，找出工作中最陡峭的學習曲線部分。

3759
03:25:58,020 --> 03:26:01,320
What you're really trying to avoid is repetitive drudgery.
你真正要避免的是重複性的苦差事。

3760
03:26:01,320 --> 03:26:03,440
Repetitive drudgery doesn't serve anybody.
重複性的苦差事對誰都沒有幫助。

3761
03:26:03,440 --> 03:26:08,200
Then you're essentially just counting the time until your job is automated away.
那你基本上就是在倒數你的工作被自動化取代的時間。

3762
03:26:08,200 --> 03:26:12,400
Even if you're a barista at the coffee shop, try to figure out how to make connections with
即使你是咖啡店的咖啡師，也要試著弄清楚如何與

3763
03:26:12,400 --> 03:26:17,040
the customers, try to figure out how to innovate on what you're offering them on your basic
顧客建立連結，試著弄清楚如何在你的基本

3764
03:26:17,040 --> 03:26:20,040
service and delight the customer.
服務上創新，讓顧客滿意。

3765
03:26:20,040 --> 03:26:24,180
What will happen is managers, founders, owners, they notice.
會發生的是，經理、創辦人、老闆，他們會注意到。

3766
03:26:24,180 --> 03:26:29,720
The hardest thing for any founder is to find people who will work with them who have founder
對任何創辦人來說，最難的事就是找到願意和他們一起工作且有創辦人

3767
03:26:29,720 --> 03:26:30,720
mentality.
心態的人。

3768
03:26:30,720 --> 03:26:33,760
That's just a fancy way of saying they care enough.
那只是另一種說法，他們夠在乎。

3769
03:26:33,760 --> 03:26:35,760
What most people will say, "Well, I'm not the founder.
大多數人會說：「嗯，我不是創辦人。

3770
03:26:35,760 --> 03:26:38,160
I'm not being paid enough to care."
我的薪水不足以讓我在乎。」

3771
03:26:38,160 --> 03:26:43,680
Really you are, the knowledge and the skills that you gain by having founder mentality
其實你是的，你透過擁有創辦人心態獲得的知識和技能，

3772
03:26:43,680 --> 03:26:48,100
set you up to be a founder down the line and it pays you in that sense.
為你未來成為創辦人奠定了基礎，從這個意義上說，它回報了你。

3773
03:26:48,100 --> 03:26:50,640
You can get a lot out of almost any position.
你幾乎可以從任何職位中學到很多。

3774
03:26:50,640 --> 03:26:52,680
You just have to put a lot into it.
你只需要投入很多。

3775
03:26:52,680 --> 03:27:00,280
If I'm working a job and I want to figure out if I should get accountability, judgment,
如果我正在工作，我想弄清楚我是否應該獲得責任感、判斷力、

3776
03:27:00,280 --> 03:27:05,400
specific knowledge, leverage, it sounds like you're saying the one thing to optimize for
特定知識、槓桿，聽起來你的意思是，最值得優化的

3777
03:27:05,400 --> 03:27:10,240
is specific knowledge out of all those things if you can.
如果可以的話，就是特定知識。

3778
03:27:10,240 --> 03:27:12,520
Judgment takes experience, takes a lot of time to build up.
判斷力需要經驗，需要很多時間來培養。

3779
03:27:12,520 --> 03:27:15,920
You have to put yourself in positions where you can exercise judgment that'll come from
你必須將自己置於能夠行使判斷力的位置，而這來自於

3780
03:27:15,920 --> 03:27:18,520
taking on accountability.
承擔責任。

3781
03:27:18,520 --> 03:27:22,480
Leverage is something that society gives you much later and once you've demonstrated your
槓桿是社會在很晚之後才會給你的東西，一旦你證明了你的

3782
03:27:22,480 --> 03:27:29,220
judgment unless you learn a code or you become good with media, these are provisionless leverage.
判斷力，除非你學會了程式碼或擅長媒體，這些都是無條件的槓桿。

3783
03:27:29,220 --> 03:27:32,960
Leverage comes later, judgment comes later.
槓桿晚點來，判斷力晚點來。

3784
03:27:32,960 --> 03:27:34,560
Accountability you can take on immediately.
責任感你可以立即承擔。

3785
03:27:34,560 --> 03:27:38,760
You can say, "Hey, I'll take charge of this thing that nobody wants to take charge of."
你可以說：「嘿，我來負責這件沒人想負責的事。」

3786
03:27:38,760 --> 03:27:42,000
So accountability is where you can step up but then you're publicly putting your neck
所以，責任感是你可以挺身而出之處，但接著你就公開地把你的脖子

3787
03:27:42,000 --> 03:27:45,000
on the chopping block so you have to deliver.
放在砧板上，所以你必須交出成果。

3788
03:27:45,000 --> 03:27:48,820
Specific knowledge gets built up by taking on accountability for things that other people
特定知識是透過承擔別人

3789
03:27:48,820 --> 03:27:53,960
don't know how to do and that perhaps you enjoy doing or you're naturally inclined towards
不知道如何做，而你或許喜歡做，或你天生傾向於

3790
03:27:53,960 --> 03:27:54,960
doing.
做的事情來建立的。

3791
03:27:54,960 --> 03:27:59,760
You could be working in a factory and it may turn out that the hardest thing in the factory
你可能在工廠工作，結果發現工廠裡最難的事情

3792
03:27:59,760 --> 03:28:03,980
is knowing how to raise capital to keep the factory running and that's what the owner
是知道如何籌集資金來維持工廠運作，而這正是老闆

3793
03:28:03,980 --> 03:28:06,760
of the factory is always stressed out about.
總是感到壓力的事情。

3794
03:28:06,760 --> 03:28:10,200
If you notice this and you're like, "I'm good at balancing my checkbook and I have a good
如果你注意到這點，而且你覺得：「我很會平衡我的支票簿，而且我有很好的

3795
03:28:10,200 --> 03:28:15,260
head for numbers and I'm good at watching money but I haven't really raised money before,"
數字頭腦，也很會看錢，但我以前沒真正募過款。」

3796
03:28:15,260 --> 03:28:18,680
you offer your help and become the owner's sidekick in that regard.
你提供你的幫助，在那方面成為老闆的助手。

3797
03:28:18,680 --> 03:28:22,740
You help solve their biggest problem, you'll become the heir apparent.
你幫他們解決最大的問題，你就會成為顯而易見的繼承人。

3798
03:28:22,740 --> 03:28:28,180
Early on, find things where you have any interest and take on accountability.
早期，找你有任何興趣的事情，並承擔責任。

3799
03:28:28,180 --> 03:28:30,180
Don't worry about short-term compensation.
不要擔心短期報酬。

3800
03:28:30,180 --> 03:28:34,920
If you dive into the edge of knowledge which nobody knows how to solve and you solve the
如果你潛入沒人知道如何解決的知識邊緣，並且你解決了

3801
03:28:34,920 --> 03:28:38,420
hard problems taking on accountability, people will line up behind you.
困難問題並承擔責任，人們會排隊支持你。

3802
03:28:38,420 --> 03:28:40,180
The leverage will come.
槓桿會來的。

3803
03:28:40,180 --> 03:28:44,580
There are a couple other related tweets to this topic from the cutting room floor that
剪輯室裡還有幾則與此主題相關的推文，

3804
03:28:44,580 --> 03:28:45,580
I'll read out.
我會讀出來。

3805
03:28:45,580 --> 03:28:50,600
First, the technology industry is a great place to acquire specific knowledge.
首先，科技產業是獲取特定知識的好地方。

3806
03:28:50,600 --> 03:28:52,920
The frontier is always moving forward.
前沿總是在向前推進。

3807
03:28:52,920 --> 03:28:59,020
If you are genuinely intellectually curious, you will acquire the knowledge ahead of others.
如果你有真正的求知慾，你會比別人更早獲得知識。

3808
03:28:59,020 --> 03:29:01,340
We have technologies around us everywhere.
我們身邊到處都是科技。

3809
03:29:01,340 --> 03:29:03,540
The spoon was technology once.
湯匙曾經是科技。

3810
03:29:03,540 --> 03:29:05,340
Fire was technology once.
火曾經是科技。

3811
03:29:05,340 --> 03:29:08,420
But once we figured out how to make it work, it disappeared in the background and became
但一旦我們弄清楚如何讓它運作，它就消失在背景中，成為

3812
03:29:08,420 --> 03:29:11,140
part of our everyday lives.
我們日常生活的一部分。

3813
03:29:11,140 --> 03:29:14,100
Technology is by definition the intellectual frontier.
根據定義，科技是知識的前沿。

3814
03:29:14,100 --> 03:29:18,980
It's taking the things that are recent from science or from culture that we have not yet
它是將最近來自科學或文化的，我們尚未

3815
03:29:18,980 --> 03:29:23,020
figured out how to mass produce and it's figuring out how to commercialize it, how to make it
弄清楚如何大量生產的東西，然後弄清楚如何商業化它、如何讓它

3816
03:29:23,020 --> 03:29:25,500
available to everybody.
普及給每個人。

3817
03:29:25,500 --> 03:29:29,140
Technology will always be where you can pick up specific knowledge that is valuable to
科技將永遠是你能夠獲得對社會

3818
03:29:29,140 --> 03:29:31,540
society that doesn't quite understand yet.
有價值但尚未完全理解的特定知識的地方。

3819
03:29:31,540 --> 03:29:36,140
For example, if I become a world-class expert in machine learning just when machine learning
例如，如果我在機器學習剛開始興起時成為世界級的專家，而且我是

3820
03:29:36,140 --> 03:29:40,020
is starting to take off and I got there through my genuine intellectual interest and I bet
透過我真正的求知慾而達成的，並且我把我的職涯押在這上面，

3821
03:29:40,020 --> 03:29:42,880
my career on it, I'm going to do really well.
我會做得非常好。

3822
03:29:42,880 --> 03:29:46,380
But 20 years from now, machine learning may be second hat.
但20年後，機器學習可能已經是陳腔濫調了。

3823
03:29:46,380 --> 03:29:49,420
There are also timeless forms of specific knowledge.
也有一些永恆形式的特定知識。

3824
03:29:49,420 --> 03:29:54,120
For example, if you're good at persuading people, it's probably a skill that you picked
例如，如果你善於說服他人，那可能是你

3825
03:29:54,120 --> 03:29:56,100
up early on in life.
早年就學到的技能。

3826
03:29:56,100 --> 03:30:00,100
It's always going to apply because persuading people is always going to be valuable.
它將永遠適用，因為說服他人永遠都是有價值的。

3827
03:30:00,100 --> 03:30:01,900
This is one of those skills that's generic.
這是一種通用的技能。

3828
03:30:01,900 --> 03:30:04,820
It probably alone is not enough to build a career on.
單獨而言，它可能不足以建立職業生涯。

3829
03:30:04,820 --> 03:30:07,400
It needs to be combined a skill stack.
它需要與技能組合結合。

3830
03:30:07,400 --> 03:30:12,700
You might combine persuasion with accounting, combined with understanding, for example,
你可能將說服力與會計結合，再結合對

3831
03:30:12,700 --> 03:30:16,100
semiconductor production lines and now all of a sudden you're the best semiconductor
半導體生產線的理解，現在你突然成為最好的半導體

3832
03:30:16,100 --> 03:30:20,560
salesperson that becomes the best semiconductor company CEO.
銷售人員，然後成為最好的半導體公司CEO。

3833
03:30:20,560 --> 03:30:22,980
There are timeless specific knowledge skills.
有一些永恆的特定知識技能。

3834
03:30:22,980 --> 03:30:25,820
Those are skills I would say that can pretty much never be taught.
我會說那些技能幾乎是無法教的。

3835
03:30:25,820 --> 03:30:30,420
And then there are timely specific knowledge skills which come and go.
然後還有一些及時的特定知識技能，這些技能會來來去去。

3836
03:30:30,420 --> 03:30:35,620
But even those tend to have fairly long shelf lives of decade or two decades or three decades.
但即使是那些，也通常有相當長的保質期，十年、二十年或三十年。

3837
03:30:35,620 --> 03:30:39,580
So technology is a good place to find those specific skill sets.
所以科技是找到那些特定技能組合的好地方。

3838
03:30:39,580 --> 03:30:43,660
And if you can bring in a more generic specialized knowledge skill sets.
如果你能帶入更通用的專業知識技能組合。

3839
03:30:43,660 --> 03:30:48,820
The other tweet from the cutting room floor was related to accountability in companies.
剪輯室裡的另一則推文與公司的責任感有關。

3840
03:30:48,820 --> 03:30:53,940
It said companies don't know how to measure outputs so they measure inputs instead.
上面說，公司不知道如何衡量產出，所以他們轉而衡量投入。

3841
03:30:53,940 --> 03:30:57,300
Work in a way that your outputs are visible and measurable.
以一種讓你的產出可見且可衡量的方式工作。

3842
03:30:57,300 --> 03:31:00,340
If you don't have accountability, do something different.
如果你沒有責任感，就做點別的。

3843
03:31:00,340 --> 03:31:08,500
The entire structure of rewarding people comes from the agricultural and industrial age where
整個獎勵人的結構來自農業和工業時代，當時

3844
03:31:08,500 --> 03:31:11,840
your inputs and your outputs matched up very closely.
你的投入和你的產出非常吻合。

3845
03:31:11,840 --> 03:31:16,400
The amount of hours that you put into doing something was a good rough proxy for what
你投入做某件事的時數，是預測你會得到什麼

3846
03:31:16,400 --> 03:31:18,500
kind of output you're going to get.
產出的粗略指標。

3847
03:31:18,500 --> 03:31:20,540
Today it's extremely nonlinear.
今天，它極度非線性。

3848
03:31:20,540 --> 03:31:25,540
One good investment decision can make a company 10 or 100 million dollars.
一個好的投資決策可以為公司帶來1000萬或1億美元的收益。

3849
03:31:25,540 --> 03:31:30,880
One good product feature can be difference between product market fit and complete failure.
一個好的產品功能，可以是產品市場契合和徹底失敗之間的區別。

3850
03:31:30,880 --> 03:31:35,100
So judgment and accountability matter much, much more.
所以判斷力和責任感重要得多得多。

3851
03:31:35,100 --> 03:31:39,460
And you want the accountability because sometimes the best engineers or the best salespeople
而你想要責任感，因為有時候最好的工程師或最好的銷售人員

3852
03:31:39,460 --> 03:31:41,600
are the ones who don't work very hard.
是那些不怎麼努力工作的人。

3853
03:31:41,600 --> 03:31:44,900
But then they'll ship that one critical product at just the right time.
但他們會在恰到好處的時間推出那個關鍵產品。

3854
03:31:44,900 --> 03:31:48,740
Or they'll make that one huge sale or that one huge deal that will make the company or
或者他們會做成那筆大買賣，或者那筆大交易，能讓公司或

3855
03:31:48,740 --> 03:31:51,060
at least make the numbers for the quarter.
至少讓季度業績達標。

3856
03:31:51,060 --> 03:31:56,180
It's very important that people are able to tell that you had a role in that.
人們能夠看出你在其中扮演的角色，這非常重要。

3857
03:31:56,180 --> 03:31:58,460
That doesn't mean that you stomp all over your team.
那不代表你要踐踏你的團隊。

3858
03:31:58,460 --> 03:32:01,540
Humans are extremely sensitive to people who take too much credit.
人類對那些攬功過多的人極其敏感。

3859
03:32:01,540 --> 03:32:05,420
So you do want to be the kind of person that is always giving out credit.
所以你確實想成為那種總是給予功勞的人。

3860
03:32:05,420 --> 03:32:08,740
But the smart people will know who was responsible.
但聰明人會知道誰是負責人。

3861
03:32:08,740 --> 03:32:13,740
There are jobs where you're not customer facing enough, where you're kind of a cog in the machine
有些工作你不太需要面對客戶，你就像機器中的一個齒輪

3862
03:32:13,740 --> 03:32:16,380
and you sacrifice accountability to some degree.
你在某種程度上犧牲了責任感。

3863
03:32:16,380 --> 03:32:18,320
An example is when you're a consultant.
一個例子是當你是顧問的時候。

3864
03:32:18,320 --> 03:32:24,080
As a consultant, often you're giving the best ideas and the best outcome, but it's being
作為顧問，你常常提出最好的想法和最好的成果，但

3865
03:32:24,080 --> 03:32:27,980
delivered through some person who's working within the organization.
是透過組織內某個工作的人來傳達的。

3866
03:32:27,980 --> 03:32:31,660
At that point, you may not have visibility to the top people in the organization, but
那時，你可能無法接觸到組織高層，但

3867
03:32:31,660 --> 03:32:34,240
you may be hidden behind a screen.
你可能被藏在幕後。

3868
03:32:34,240 --> 03:32:38,060
And that's just a trade off that you're making in exchange for your independence as a consultant
而那只是你作為顧問為了獨立而做出的權衡

3869
03:32:38,060 --> 03:32:42,660
because you're not willing to play the corporate rat race or the corporate ladder game.
因為你不願意玩公司裡的爾虞我詐或爬階梯遊戲。

3870
03:32:42,660 --> 03:32:46,820
Otherwise that with accountability, you can get a lot more credit when things go right.
否則，有了責任感，當事情順利時你可以得到更多功勞。

3871
03:32:46,820 --> 03:32:50,740
Of course, the downside is you get hurt a lot more when things go wrong.
當然，缺點是當事情出錯時你會受到更多傷害。

3872
03:32:50,740 --> 03:32:55,840
You stick your neck out, you have to be willing to be blamed, sacrificed and even attacked.
你挺身而出，你必須願意被責備、犧牲甚至攻擊。

3873
03:32:55,840 --> 03:33:00,580
So if you're the kind of person that thrives in a high accountability environment, you're
所以，如果你是那種在高責任感環境中茁壯成長的人，你

3874
03:33:00,580 --> 03:33:04,100
naturally also going to end up very thick skinned over time.
久而久之自然會變得非常厚臉皮。

3875
03:33:04,100 --> 03:33:05,340
You're going to get hurt a lot.
你會受到很多傷害。

3876
03:33:05,340 --> 03:33:07,980
People are going to attack you if you fail.
如果你失敗了，人們會攻擊你。

3877
03:33:07,980 --> 03:33:12,420
If you're working a job, I think you can apply a lot of the principles of the tweet storm
如果你正在工作，我認為你可以應用很多那則推文風暴的原則

3878
03:33:12,420 --> 03:33:18,980
inside the job like we just discussed, including other ones like partnering with rational optimists.
在工作上，就像我們剛才討論的，包括其他原則，像是與理性的樂觀主義者合作。

3879
03:33:18,980 --> 03:33:24,540
You can find people in the organization who are optimistic and rational that have energy,
你可以在組織中找到樂觀、理性、有活力、

3880
03:33:24,540 --> 03:33:27,580
integrity and intelligence.
誠信和智慧的人。

3881
03:33:27,580 --> 03:33:31,940
And the flip side of this is that once you get some specific knowledge, one way to scale
而另一面是，一旦你獲得了一些特定的知識，一個擴大規模的

3882
03:33:31,940 --> 03:33:38,940
it is to start training apprentices that you can then outsource some of your tasks to.
方法就是開始訓練學徒，然後你可以將一些任務外包給他們。

3883
03:33:38,940 --> 03:33:43,300
For example, I made a bunch of good investments and I figured out a little bit here and there
例如，我做了一堆好的投資，而且我這裡那裡弄懂了一點點

3884
03:33:43,300 --> 03:33:45,940
about the venture business and I could keep doing that.
創投業務，我可以繼續這麼做。

3885
03:33:45,940 --> 03:33:50,500
I could keep just investing as an investor, but instead I co-founded this project called
我可以繼續以投資人的身分投資，但取而代之的是，我共同創辦了這個名為

3886
03:33:50,500 --> 03:33:55,500
Spearhead where we train up and coming young founders to also become angel and venture
Spearhead的專案，我們在那裡培訓新晉的年輕創辦人，讓他們也成為天使投資人和創投

3887
03:33:55,500 --> 03:33:57,700
investors and we give them a checkbook.
家，我們還給他們一本支票簿。

3888
03:33:57,700 --> 03:33:59,300
It's an apprenticeship model.
這是一個學徒制模式。

3889
03:33:59,300 --> 03:34:02,880
They come to us with specific deals that they're looking at and we help them think through
他們帶著他們正在看的具體交易來找我們，我們幫助他們思考

3890
03:34:02,880 --> 03:34:05,100
every unique situation.
每一個獨特的狀況。

3891
03:34:05,100 --> 03:34:08,540
And we basically apprentice them under us to learn the venture business and it's much
我們基本上讓他們在我們手下當學徒，學習創投業務，而且這比

3892
03:34:08,540 --> 03:34:10,160
more scalable.
更具規模化。

3893
03:34:10,160 --> 03:34:14,620
We have classes and talks where we kind of tell them what we know and then there are
我們有課程和講座，我們會告訴他們我們知道的東西，然後有

3894
03:34:14,620 --> 03:34:19,140
office hours when they actually bring in the deals and they talk to us about specific deals.
辦公時間，他們會實際帶來交易，和我們討論具體的交易。

3895
03:34:19,140 --> 03:34:22,740
And it turns out the classes and talks are largely worthless.
結果發現，課程和講座基本上毫無價值。

3896
03:34:22,740 --> 03:34:26,860
You can give all the generic advice you need to give in about an hour and then after that
你可以在一個小時左右給出所有你需要的通用建議，然後在那之後

3897
03:34:26,860 --> 03:34:31,300
all the additional advice is sort of circumstantial that essentially cancels to zero if you try
所有額外的建議都有些情境性，如果你試圖

3898
03:34:31,300 --> 03:34:33,900
to give it in some top-down fashion.
以某種由上而下的方式給予，基本上就等於零。

3899
03:34:33,900 --> 03:34:36,340
But the office hours are incredibly useful.
但辦公時間卻非常有幫助。

3900
03:34:36,340 --> 03:34:40,580
It just reinforces that this is one of those skills that can only be learned on the job.
這只是再次強調，這是一種只能在工作中學習的技能。

3901
03:34:40,580 --> 03:34:44,660
And when you find a skill that can only be learned on the job by doing it, that is a
當你發現一個只能透過實際操作在工作中學習的技能時，那是一個

3902
03:34:44,660 --> 03:34:47,740
good indicator that you're dealing with specific knowledge.
很好的指標，顯示你正在處理特定知識。

3903
03:34:47,740 --> 03:34:50,820
Another good indicator with your dealing with specific knowledge is when you ask the person
另一個與你處理特定知識的好指標是，當你問那個

3904
03:34:50,820 --> 03:34:54,180
who's doing it, what do you do every day?
正在做的人，你每天做什麼？

3905
03:34:54,180 --> 03:34:57,640
And they can't give you a straight answer or it's something on lines of what every day
而他們無法給你一個直接的答案，或者答案像是每天

3906
03:34:57,640 --> 03:35:00,140
is different based on what's going on.
根據當時的情況而有所不同。

3907
03:35:00,140 --> 03:35:02,980
That's a good indicator you're learning specific knowledge.
這是一個很好的指標，說明你正在學習特定知識。

3908
03:35:02,980 --> 03:35:09,260
The thing is so complicated and it's so dependent upon circumstances that it can't be boiled
這件事太複雜，而且非常依賴情境，以至於它無法被濃縮

3909
03:35:09,260 --> 03:35:13,780
down into a textbook form or communicated by a make money consultant.
成教科書形式，或由賺錢顧問傳達。

3910
03:35:13,780 --> 03:35:17,980
The mafia figured out this apprenticeship model a long time ago.
黑手黨很久以前就想通了這個學徒模式。

3911
03:35:17,980 --> 03:35:23,140
The best way to end up running one of the families was to become the driver for the
最終能經營其中一個家族的最好方法，是成為其中一個家族

3912
03:35:23,140 --> 03:35:24,580
dawn of one of the families.
黎明的司機。

3913
03:35:24,580 --> 03:35:26,380
It's a complicated business.
這是個複雜的生意。

3914
03:35:26,380 --> 03:35:31,100
Tony Soprano said, "I'm a businessman who has to enforce my own contracts."
托尼·索普拉諾說：「我是一個必須執行自己合約的商人。」

3915
03:35:31,100 --> 03:35:33,300
Very complicated business.
非常複雜的生意。

3916
03:35:33,300 --> 03:35:35,300
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矽谷傳奇 Naval Ravikant《如何致富》播客完整字幕 (中英對照)

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